Week 13: The Good Stuff
- Rookies on the Road - There’s much fanfare to be distributed to an excellent 2012 rookie QB class, and I’ve said as much on this blog recently. But more credit is due to Brandon Weeden, Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck after pulling off three notable wins this week on the road, where all three have struggled despite very respectable starts this season. Have they fully arrived yet? Of course not, but these three combined for 7 TD passes to 4 picks and helped their teams eke out narrow but hard-fought wins. It’s hard to believe but three out of the five teams who’ve started rookie QBs this year (Seahawks, Colts, Redskins) could very well make the playoffs-- my mind is pleasantly blown.
- The Texans’ Defensive Stomp - I know it was just the Titans (who’ve been a confusingly uneven bunch this year with no real positive or negative trends to show for it), but the Houston Texans dominated them on the defensive side of the ball in a way that made me want an ice bath. When the dust finally settled in Nashville, the Texans defense had racked up 5 sacks, 3 interceptions and 3 fumble recoveries to put their division foes away. AND my outside MVP hope for J.J. Watt was rekindled - he was responsible for 1 sack, 1 forced fumble and two deflected passes, one of which led to an interception. Houston’s not totally out of the woods for the No. 1 seed in the AFC since they have to face Tom Brady in Foxboro this upcoming week and Andrew Luck’s Colts twice, but I am looking forward to them going far in January.
- Nailed It!: My Best Week 13 Prediction - There’s one Week 13 pick I’m absolutely going to stay away from here out of respect, but it is exceptionally [and completely unintentionally] eerie. Instead, the Packers-Vikings game shaped up to be just about what I thought it would be:
- "I'm hoping this game is closer than it appears, especially considering how lifeless Green Bay looked on Sunday night. The Vikings have a little more than a prayer if they can get Adrian Peterson going early. But I trust that Aaron Rodgers is competitive enough to pick up the pieces after a Meadowlands rout and take it out on his lesser NFC North rivals."
- Drew Brees’ Worst Career Game Evar - “Uncharacteristic” doesn’t even begin to describe how ugly Drew Brees’ Thursday night 0 TD, 5 INT spectacular in Atlanta truly was to watch, though I give him personal character credit for owning up to his mistakes unflinchingly afterwards. Just know I’d have to revoke my blogger credentials if I didn’t file this one under “Bad Stuff” against the Dirty Birds of all people (who CAN win in the Georgia Dome when their QB throws 5 INTs). It wasn’t just painful to watch because we’ve come to expect so much more of this elite quarterback. It was especially gut-wrenching because the rest of the team from overall yards and time of possession, from the rush game to the defense to Garrett Freaking Hartley (K) absolutely held up their end of the bargain and yet have nothing to show for it as we close the book on the Saints’ 2012 playoff hopes. Historical Side Note: Now we’re on Tom Brady watch to see if he can surpass Brees’ consecutive-games-with-a-TD record in 2013... Soak it up while you can, New Orleans.
- Missed Opportunities for the Niners and Vikings - It amazes me week after week how the tides can turn so quickly inside of a football game-- if you don’t believe me, try doing a fantasy league or weekly game picks for a little while. What seems to be in the palm of your hand even up to the fourth quarter (I’m also looking at you, Giants, Lions, Bears, and Ravens) can so easily slip away with the slightest change of momentum or will power. Cases in point: 1) the Vikings unable to close against a Packers team on the ropes at Lambeau despite Adrian Peterson’s stunning 210-yds in rushing performance. QB Christian Ponder’s TWO red zone INTs certainly didn’t help the cause; and 2) the 49ers’ late game collapse against the Rams, whom they could have essentially put away with 3 minutes to go by running the ball with high-percentage schemes (instead of fumbling) OR by forcing the Rams to use all of their timeouts with more high-percentage rushes and kick a very late field goal (instead of producing negative plays and going out of bounds) OR making a field goal in overtime that should have been doable for Steve-Blass-lately kicker David Akers (needless to say that didn’t work out). I’m not particularly cheering for San Francisco these days, but yeesh, my picks sure took a hit with their late game anti-heroics.
- Shanked It!: My Worst Week 13 Prediction - True, very few people probably saw this one coming, but I couldn’t have done much worse in terms of being totally wrong than with the 49ers-Rams game. Kudos to St. Louis for making the Bears’ and Saints’ defenses look just plain silly against Colin Kaepernick:
- "I'm not sure this really belongs in the Well Drink bucket other than that the Rams could have a slight boost with the early time slot, but they must be kicking themselves that they concussed Alex Smith three weeks ago only to have to face a well-oiled Colin Kaepernick instead. The irony and the agony. This one won't end in a tie."
Honorable Mentions: Mike Mularkey, Ron Rivera, Rex Ryan, Ken Whisenhut - These guys didn’t quite make the cut, given their relatively new head coaching roles in the case of the former two and their somewhat recent successes in the case of the latter two. In truth, I wouldn’t be too surprised to see one or two of these coaches exit in the offseason (other than Rex Ryan, who fits Rutherford, New Jersey to a tee), but the onus will be entirely on them if they survive to vastly exceed expectations in 2013 that they surely haven’t met this year.
5) Jason Garrett (Dallas Cowboys) 1:5 - I’ve been preparing myself for the worst as a Saints fan and as a Memphis Tigers fan who saw John Calipari take his slimy, scheming talents to Kentucky with little warning and a lot of sanctions left in his wake. Jason Garrett’s job security at this point depends almost entirely on whether or not Sean Payton makes himself available to the free market in the offseason. If you believe Saints GM Mickey Loomis, who has absolutely no reason to lie, right?, Payton will stay in NOLA and Dallas will have to deal with 2 - 3 game-sinking botched calls from the well-meaning Jason Garrett for another season. But if you believe this embattled Saints coach might be looking for a fresh start closer to his family with all the media market attention Jerry Jones can buy, brace yourself. The two-point conditional puts this hot seat at 1:5.
4) Dennis Allen (Oakland Raiders) 1:4 - Here’s how irrelevant Dennis Allen and the Oakland Raiders are: even as a regular NFL blogger, I had to Google “Raiders coach” to remember his name for this feature. In fact, I cannot recall writing anything of substance about this team all season, and that’s not about to start now. Allen could fall into the category of Mike Mularkey and Ron Rivera in that he hasn’t had a ton of time to turn Oakland around, but the Raiders have gone down so harshly so fast in the latter part of this season, that can’t be too promising for him. Given that the Raiders seem to have no problem firing head coaches year-in and year-out, Dennis Allen merits 1:4 hot seat odds, which are of course more promising than his team’s win-loss record and point-differential ratios.
3) Romeo Crennel (Kansas City Chiefs) 1:1 - Impossible as it may be, I’d like to shift this conversation away from the unspeakable tragedy that befell Kansas City this weekend. I have admired Romeo Crennel’s poise and heart for a while and said so when I woefully predicted the Chiefs taking the AFC West with a 10 - 6 record back in July. Why did I predict this, you ask? Because Kansas City seemed stacked with talent, restored after a season of bad injuries and almost destined to take control in the league’s worst division with so many unknowns on the other West teams. What we’ve gotten in reality couldn’t be further from that ideal, and it truly comes down to the coaching at the end of the day. Crennel has taken his team’s talent next to nowhere compared to what Todd Haley was able to do with a nearly identical roster two years ago. The number of turnovers this team has committed this season is almost unreal, and that goes back to simple player discipline and roster adjustments. Crennel’s already fired himself from being the Chiefs’ Defensive Coordinator, so look for the Chiefs front office to close the circle circle after they get spanked in Denver in Week 17 with the hot seat odds at 1:1.
2) Norv Turner (San Diego Chargers) 7:1 - For the better part of his 5-year coaching career with San Diego, Norv Turner has ridden the, um, coattails? of the aforementioned abysmal AFC West to success. While his seat has never been too cozy with the Chargers, Turner continues to bewilder fans by turning talented roster after talented roster into bitter disappointment. That disappointment hasn’t even extended into the playoffs in recent years. Even if GM A. J. Smith has inexplicably enjoyed Norv Turner’s company for well past his due, he won’t be able to hide behind an embarrassing [current] 4 - 8 record that includes losses to the Cleveland Browns, then-winless New Orleans Saints, and that cringeworthy collapse to the Denver Broncos after starting the game 24 - 0. Norv Turner’s hot seat odds are somewhat generously set at 7:1 so that he can land an assistant coaching gig with the Titans or the Browns.
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