Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking
Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans (-7.5)
The individual matchup between J.J. Watt and Adrian Peterson alone makes this the Lady Blitz Game of the Week. Both players are eyeing some of the most impressive single season league records in these final two weeks (Watt is 3.5 sacks away from breaking Michael Strahan’s record and Peterson is just under 300 yards away from breaking Eric Dickerson’s rushing record), and that puts this game in an unstoppable force/immovable object realm of cage match. If I were Leslie Frazier, I’d let AP tear up that indoor Reliant field with a few well-placed Christian Ponder dropbacks as a decoy so that both players can stay on that coveted trajectory. Even so, as much as I’d love to see Minnesota continue its very memorable underdog playoff run, I just can’t see the Texans defense getting outsmarted by a very one-dimensional Vikings offense with competing priorities.
San Francisco 49ers (-1) at Seattle Seahawks
Bravo to NBC for flexing this surprisingly intriguing divisional bout to Sunday prime time, as virtually no two teams have been hotter in the NFL as of late. Both of these offenses have come alive to match their consistently spectacular defensive efforts, putting up a whopping 176 combined points in the last two weeks. Seattle’s had a tremendous edge all season long at home, but if there’s one team that could snap that trend, it’s a San Francisco team that punched the Patriots in the mouth at Foxboro just last week. In an anything goes, no holds barred kind of match up, I like the Seahawks to play it close and tough with the twelfth man on their side, more to lose, and far fewer turnovers than New England giftwrapped for the Niners last week.
Here are two perennially respected teams who’ve been ravaged by brutal late season schedules and are still trying to capture their division titles. Unfortunately for the Ravens, I just don’t see things getting much better on offense as long as New York’s front four can unleash an appropriate amount of havoc early and often on Joe Flacco. Eli will bounce back against an ailing Baltimore defense, but the Ravens will still be the only team here with a clinched playoff berth.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
Nearly all of the Top Shelf matchups have huge playoff stakes for the teams involved, but no game is arguably more do or die for both teams than this AFC North rumble. Pittsburgh should be concerned about its own defensive performance over the past couple of weeks as well as Cincy’s elite pass rush, but the Bengals have a real mental block with this team and are already 1 - 3 in the division. While the Bengals are easily the better team on paper this year, I just haven’t seen enough to believe they have the resolve to beat Big Ben at Heinz Field while the Steelers are in a sudden death playoff situation.
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (-3)
On this episode of the Bachelor, two suitors will vie for Sean Payton’s fickle contractual love while also trying to save face, and in the Cowboy’s camp, trying to keep those playoff hopes on life support for another week. If you’re a Saints conspiracy theorist, you might find yourself believing or even praying that they’ll throw the game in order to keep Jason Garrett right where he now sits. If you’re me, you’re alternately concerned that last week’s shutout was a fluke on the merits of a turbulent Buccaneers locker room and league-worst secondary. One thing is certain: the Cowboys are going to keep swinging until this one’s over because they have everything to lose.
Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations
Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) at Detroit Lions
I don’t expect Atlanta to crush Lions in exactly the same dramatic fashion that they did with the Giants last week, but even away from home against a team with nothing to lose, the Falcons should be well-prepared to lock up the #1 seed they will surely benefit from in January.
Washington Redskins (-6.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
This could actually turn out to be a more dynamic game than I would have thought looking back even three weeks ago, but the Redskins just aren’t taking no for an answer right now with five straight wins no matter who’s under center. Currently sitting at first place in the NFC East, Washington can claim its own playoff destiny by winning out against two division rivals (Eagles, Cowboys) in these final two weeks, and they’ve certainly demonstrated they have the chops to do it.
Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers (-12.5)
Given just how unbelievably pathetic the Jets were on Monday, it’s no small wonder the Titans still only managed to win by 4 points. The Packers are in no mood for making mistakes right now with a 1 or 2 playoff seed technically still in sight, but I’m hoping the Titans defense can continue to keep things more interesting than expected this week after a month of noticeable improvement.
At first, I thought it was just injuries that were bogging the Chicago Bears down, but now I’m not so sure that’s the case looking back at their recent 1 - 5 slide. For one, as I’ve mentioned before here, the Bears’ early season defensive fireworks were unlikely to sustain themselves, but their offense has not held up well against the league’s best defenses either (Texans, 49ers, Seahawks, Clay Matthews’ Packers). In other words, we’re in for a wild ride in Arizona this week, folks, and it’s probably going to come down to whether or not one of these defenses can outscore the other. Given that the Cardinals had to have just about everything go their way last week to win, I’m banking on the Bears getting past them to sneak back into a wild card spot.
St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Even though both of these teams are out of options for a plausible playoff run, this is a much bigger moment for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers than for the St. Louis Rams. On the whole, Greg Schiano’s inaugural coaching season has been a success just as Jeff Fisher’s has, but Schiano is already on the verge of mutiny in the locker room just like his predecessor Raheem Morris. The Bucs can right the pirate ship for next year by unleashing Doug Martin on a Rams team that was trampled by Adrian Peterson just a week ago.
House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest
Indianapolis Colts (-7) at Kansas City Chiefs
These two teams are roughly in opposite positions than I expected them to be in my preseason win-loss predictions, but those positions are well-deserved on both sides of the spectrum. I like the Colts to keep a stronghold on their wild card position against a Chiefs team that has only a draft pick [not] to play for at this point. If all else goes according to plan, the Colts could then backstroke their way through Week 17 with Chuck Pagano back on the sidelines and the #1 Texans having nothing else to jockey for in the regular season.
Fun fact: we are 40 years removed from the Dolphins’ perfect 17 - 0 season and nearly 20 years removed from the Bills’ four straight Super Bowl appearances. The wonder of these feats cannot be understated, especially since they are so unlikely to repeat in the modern era of NFL parity, but this Week 16 matchup serves only as a reminder of how the mighty have fallen. I’m going with Miami with a hunch that these teams should split their series this year and that the Dolphins’ offense is just good enough right now to stop Buffalo from spoiling Miami’s playoff chances a week too early.
San Diego Chargers at New York Jets (-2.5)
How is it that the Jets keep reeling in all of these pathetic late season games? To jog your memory, their last five weeks of the schedule contain the Cardinals, Jaguars, Titans, Chargers and Bills, yet they’ve already eliminated themselves from the playoffs. As insanely bad as the Jets played on Monday night, I’m not real sure what to expect from the Chargers during an early East Coast outing in the Meadowlands. Let's give poor Greg McElroy a chance to earn one of the league's worst starting QB jobs.
Oakland Raiders at Carolina Panthers (-8)
Panthers fans will be wringing their hands all spring and summer that this team couldn’t find its rhythm until December, but they can earn a few more pride points going into 2013 by dismantling an awful Oakland defense at home.
New England Patriots (-14.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
I’ve already joked twice about elite teams (Packers, Texans) getting a second bye week by playing the Jaguars this year, yet both times the Jags played it surprisingly close. So to make a long story short, I don’t expect them to beat the Patriots either.
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (-13)
A playoff bye week is the Broncos’ to lose, and with home games against the Browns and Chiefs for these final two weeks, Peyton Manning can lock this thing up in his sleep.
Last Week's Record: 9 - 7*
Season Record: 143 - 80 - 1
*Don’t judge me too harshly on this one-- I would be back to 10 - 6 if the awful, awful Jets hadn’t done this. That Monday night disaster was the only walk in a Jets fan’s shoes I’ll ever need to experience.
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