After going through a long, respectable stride of picks through about Week 12 that had me ahead of both guys at Pro Football Talk and in about second or third place with the Bleacher Report gaggle of 11, I've gone bold in all the wrong places and slid back down to about the middle of the pack. Even so, it's remarkable that going 64% is still pretty good by industry standards-- I definitely thought this stuff would be easier, and there've been an extraordinary number of games that have gone down to the wire and to overtime. There are no guarantees this week with most teams playing for pride and a handful of teams having no material reason to play their starters before the playoffs begin, so I might find that it would have been better to go the way of a coin toss. But being a stubborn know-it-sometimes, here are my last regular season picks:
Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-3)
It feels strange that this is the only sudden death match for both teams involved this week. This Lady Blitz Game of the Week is simple: win and you're in. I side with the folks that predict this will be a shootout for the ages, which may very well come down to whatever team has the ball last. Tony Romo and RGIII have looked spectacular for the past month, defensive breakdowns and injuries aside, respectively. The Cowboys defense is on crutches while the Redskins' pass defense has been pretty uneven this season, so expect at least one QB to break 400 yards easily. Ultimately, I have to go with Washington here - they are undefeated since their bye week and danced circles around Dallas' A-Team defense on Thanksgiving. I don't expect them to have the same kind of luck this time with Griffin playing at less than 100%, but I'll take Kyle Shanahan's ability to coach his offense in the clutch more so than Rob Ryan's defense.
If these next two picks come to fruition, the Bears will be going to the playoffs this upcoming week. I don't think this will be an easy win for a team that has come crashing back to Earth since starting the year 7 - 1, but Chicago has to be feeling more confident after getting back on track defensively in Arizona last week. Hopefully now that Calvin Johnson has broken Jerry Rice's long-standing single-season passing record, Peanut Tillman will have a slightly easier go of shutting him down just enough for the Bears to reach the promise land.
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Minnesota Vikings
If I wasn't concerned with padding my stats, I'd absolutely take a chance on this Vikings team that continues to surprise everyone with unexpected wins week after week. Heck, Minnesota almost beat the Packers at Lambeau a few weeks ago by putting Adrian Peterson 212 yards closer to Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record. At home indoors, AP's got as good of a chance as anywhere else to repeat that feat and I'll be rooting hard for a Minnesota win and a Peterson record. Even so, the Packers have won 10 straight and are playing for a bye week in the very competitive NFC playoff picture, and we can't have it both ways.
Houston Texans (-7) at Indianapolis Colts
Like the Green Bay-Minnesota tilt above, this is a surprisingly big game, albeit with lower stakes. Both teams have locked up their playoff spots, but the Texans are in a must-win situation if they want to protect home field advantage throughout the playoffs and a first round bye. The Colts have far less to play for until next week, but Coach Chuck Pagano will finally be back on the sidelines for the first time since being diagnosed with leukemia three months ago. When push comes to shove, I'm willing to take a chance that Indy's will can overcome Houston's skill during this final emotional week of the regular season at Lucas Oil.
Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
Neither of these teams are playing for much right now, so I'd probably do better to flip a coin in this case not knowing if or how long the Ravens' and Bengals' starters will be on the field. I'm picking the Ravens because they've officially activated Ray Lewis (heck yes!), and new OC Jim Caldwell could probably use another week with that offense to keep fine tuning before the Ravens have to try to keep pace with the likes of Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and/or Tom Brady.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-7.5)
I'm more than a little shocked the spread is this high for the Giants this week. They've looked absolutely lifeless for the past two weeks against other avian teams (Falcons, Ravens-- see what I did there?!), so who's to say how they'll do against an Eagles team that has looked competitive if not all the way there in recent weeks? Even so, New York will be facing a rusty Michael Vick who could be either supremely motivated to put his best foot forward or just as mistake-prone as always. I'm going with the latter.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-5)
This game has no playoff implications whatsoever, but don't expect these two teams to play that way. They've found some late December offensive fireworks and should come out swinging for pride in a division that looks like it'll truly be up for grabs next year. My money's on the Saints for obvious reasons.
This and the other NFC West game below are only in the Well Drink bucket because the division is still up for grabs... technically. The 49ers can win the West at home against one of the worst offenses in the NFL, which should give San Francisco some breathing room to figure out how in the heck to manage its defense without injured All Pro DT Justin Smith.
St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-11)
It's hard to fathom that suddenly sensational Seattle will be able to maintain 30+ point margins of victory for the remainder of this season, but they should still beat the Rams the same way they've beaten most teams at home this year: easily. Should the 49ers slip up in some mind-bogglingly unlikely fashion and Seattle wins here, they will have one more battle at CenturyLink in the playoffs.
House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-3.5)
I can't really waste a lot of space on this one. The Bills suck, but the Jets suck worse.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-10)
You gotta love the scheduling cruelty of putting a Miami team in New England in December every year to face the Patriots. This time, the Dolphins will get to experience a new flavor of Tom Brady's wrath since he was more than a little displeased with the Pats' mere 7-point victory over the Jaguars last week.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (OFF)
I might have taken another chance on the Browns this week the way the Steelers have played lately, but they are officially down to freshly signed QB Thaddeus "who?" Lewis after injuries to Brandon Weeden and Colt McCoy. If Pittsburgh can't pull this one off, Mike Tomlin might start coaching for his livelihood next season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (OFF)
I don't know if I believe Falcons coach Mike Smith when he says his team will play this one all the way through with starters. That could be largely contingent on how viciously Matt Ryan shreds the Tampa Bay secondary in the first half, because it's gonna happen.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-16)
The promise of a first-round bye and potentially homefield advantage in the AFC rests in Peyton Manning's hands against the Kansas City Chiefs. Since the Chiefs inexplicably have four players going to the Pro Bowl in a few weeks (which is more than the Atlanta Falcons have, mind you), I'm going to guess they've already packed their bags and blocked this season out of their minds.
Who can ever tell about the Chargers these days? One minute they're blowing the Steelers and Jets to pieces, the next minute they're letting the Panthers run circles around them at home. I cannot even give the same degree of "props" to the Raiders these days, so this one looks to be Norv Turner's retirement party.
Who can ever really tell about the Titans either? I think the Jaguars can absolutely beat a team that gave up 55 points last week, but I think any team can absolutely beat the Jaguars too. So I root again for the home team and a chance for Mike Munchak to give it just one more try next year, I hope.
So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 10 - 6
Season Record: 153 - 86 - 1
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