Week 12 Picks for Every NFL Game

(In case you missed it, here's my final take on the Saints Bounty ruling.  Hilarity ensues.)

We have ourselves a true embarrassment of riches in terms of games worth watching in Week 15.  11 out of 16 games this week feature at least one team still in the playoff hunt; 7 of those feature two playoff hopefuls going head to head.  With just a little over a week before the end of the Mayan calendar to go, it’ll be a perfect Sunday to be a couch potato shut-in as the postseason picture gets just a little bit clearer.  To those players and fans whose teams are still hungry for playoff paydirt, may the odds be ever in your favor (unless you’re with the Falcons):

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots (-5.5) - Even with a slate of excellent games on the Top Shelf and Well Drink bucket this week, it doesn’t get much better than our Lady Blitz Game of the Week between the 49ers and the Patriots.  For all the fanfare I’ve bestowed on Texans DE J.J. Watt this season, I can’t leave 49ers LB Aldon Smith out of the conversation when it comes to defensive performance.  Smith already has 19.5 sacks on the year and 3 more games to try to break Michael Strahan’s mighty impressive single-season record (22.5).  That alone makes San Francisco well worth watching in this late stretch, but both the Niners and the Patriots will be tested in this inter-conference, opposing philosophies matchup between the old guard and new guard of elite NFL coaches.  The way the Patriots shredded the Texans on Monday night was scary, but I don't think the 49ers will let them off that easy.  Even so, I'll take the way Tom Brady is playing these days over a young San Francisco team in the New England winter.

New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) - It’s time for Atlanta to put its money where its mouth is.  Despite a conference-best 11-2 record, the Falcons haven’t had much of a chance to prove their worth against the better teams in the NFL this year or in previous playoff outings under Mike Smith.  After a disappointing game against the Panthers last week, the Dirty Birds must now face a New York Giants squad that embarrassed them in January by holding them to just 2 points on the day.  Skeletons in the closet much?  The Falcons should be fired up to try to get this one right, but I don’t intend to pick against the dangerous and determined Giants in December again regardless of Atlanta’s motivation.

Green Bay Packers (-3) at Chicago Bears - Lovie Smith is on the contractual chopping block after this year, and going 1 - 4 over the past five games with a suddenly iced defense certainly isn’t helping his cause.  Meanwhile, the Packers have regained steam at the right time and could be getting back key starters on defense (Woodson, Matthews) this week to help their cause.  In the NFL, momentum is everything so I have to go with Green Bay  maintaining its perfect divisional record on the way to the postseason.

Denver Broncos (-2.5) at Baltimore Ravens - We’ve got ourselves quite the AFC dogfight in Baltimore this weekend, and it just got even more interesting as Baltimore sent ex-OC Cam Cameron packing and replaced him with... you guessed it, Peyton Manning’s old coach Jim Caldwell.  This presents two important question marks on the game’s outcome: 1) will Caldwell be able to impart some [robotically stoic] wisdom on his current team’s defensive plans for the resurgent Peyton Manning?; and 2) will this coaching change allow the Ravens to shake things up against John Fox’s scheming or just send Baltimore into a world of disorganized chaos?  Seeing how Coach Caldwell fared without Manning under center in 2011, I’m guessing this is a pretty bad time to shake the Ravens’ offensive snow globe.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-8.5) - Speaking of former Colts, who knew the AFC South would get this interesting just a year later?  Indy’s closing in fast on a wild card berth while the Texans control their destiny for a first-round bye and perhaps a #1 seed in January.  It’s been well worth the wait to get to see these teams go head-to-head in Weeks 15 and 17 (though who’s to say whether they’ll still be playing for anything significant in Week 17).  I expect a close, exciting match with many twists and turns along the way, but I think Houston’s defense at home will get the better of Andrew Luck this time around.  Reliant Stadium will be a rockin’.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) at Dallas Cowboys - An obscene proportion of the U.S. populace has been waiting for this matchup all season long, and both the Steelers and Cowboys now find themselves teetering on the edge of playoff contention and perhaps even division titles in this do-or-die situation.  Here are my assumptions that will surely be put to the test this weekend: 1) that Ben Roethlisberger’s play will continue to improve coming off a significant injury; 2) that the Cowboys lucked out more than a little bit against the Bengals last week in a way that won’t repeat itself here; and 3) that the Cowboys’ emotional exhaustion will get the better of them just as it happened to the Colts and Chiefs after their respective off-the-field tragedies earlier this year.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) at Philadelphia Eagles - The Bengals will absolutely be kicking themselves in January if last week’s collapse against the Cowboys ultimately keeps them at home.  Thursday night in Philadelphia may not be a walk in the park for Cincy now that Nick Foles & co. are showing signs of life, but consider this: the Bengals lead the league in sacks right now while the Eagles have allowed the third most sacks in the NFL.  Expect no mercy from these hungry Bengals hopefuls in prime time.

Washington Redskins (-1) at Cleveland Browns - Don’t look now but the Cleveland Browns have gone 5 - 3 after starting the season 0 - 5.  One could argue that none of these wins have been against particularly impressive [healthy] teams, but Cleveland looks to be headed in the right direction as the elder AFC North teams could soon be retiring.  Even so, few teams are hotter right now than the Redskins and they have a must-win situation on their hands this Sunday.  Kirk Cousins could pull off the W, but I'm praying for a resilient RGIII to retake the reins.

Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams (-3) - Here’s a game few people probably thought would be this interesting back in September.  Both the Vikings and the Rams have emerged as unlikely wild card contenders, and somebody’s about to get knocked off of that totem pole this weekend.  Adrian Peterson’s success on the ground cannot be understated here against a burgeoning Rams front seven powerhouse.  I'm on team-AP to keep those legs churning toward 2,000 yards, but the Rams defense has looked very good against run-first, pass second teams lately.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3) - I’m not sure you can call this one a Desperation Bowl since both the Saints and the Bucs are all but statistically eliminated from the 2012 playoff hunt.  This one’s all about pride, and my pride has been hurt after wrongly picking the Saints for three consecutive weeks against much better teams.  New Orleans has reminded me more than a little bit of Dallas lately with flashes of brilliance sprinkled between heinous mistakes including the kinds of interceptions Drew Brees just shouldn’t be throwing at this stage in his career.  The Buccaneers are definitely on the upward swing, but they’ve let a lot of close games slip away in the waning minutes this year.  In fact, all seven of their losses have been within one possession.  Soak all of that in because it makes this game next to impossible to pick.  So that I won't fall victim to the gambler's fallacy, I'm going to have to go Saints given the Buccaneers' terrible secondary, though I have a sneaking suspicion Drew Brees is playing hurt and could cost NOLA another one.

Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) at Buffalo Bills - You still just don’t quite know what to expect from the Seahawks on the road despite their recent rise in the NFC ranks, but Buffalo’s ship is sunk and Seattle has a lot more to play for on Sunday.  I expect Russell Wilson to continue his upward trajectory this week alongside Marshawn Lynch’s brutal style of power rushing against a suspect Buffalo defense.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-7) - Here’s a novel thought: the Jaguars and Dolphins should just merge and call it a day.  That way, they might have just enough talent to get to 0.500 and a fanbase that could fill 70% of a mid-size stadium not in Gainesville, leaving those L.A. yuppies of sports fandom to sulk courtside with just the Lakers for another year or two.  Hey, it’s not quite as crazy as shipping some poor team off to London, I’m just sayin’.  Anyway, the Dolphins remember Chad Henne all too well and why they got rid of him in the first place.  Hopefully that’ll lead them to a swansong victory at home during an otherwise forgettable year.

Detroit Lions (-6) at Arizona Cardinals - This matchup would have been a little intriguing earlier this season when both the Lions and the Cardinals still had high hopes for 2012, given their relative strengths and weaknesses on either side of the ball. But whereas Detroit has a mediocre defense to Arizona’s solid one (Sunday in Seattle aside), Arizona is absolutely no match for the Lions on offense.  An 0 - 10 slide is imminent.

Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers (-3) - These surprising Week 14 victors will go head-to-head in the Too Little Too Late Bowl this weekend in San Diego.  They have a lot in common when you think about it: talented rosters not living up to expectations, an inordinate number of late game collapses, surprisingly good moments here and there.  It’s making my head spin, especially since only one of these teams can blow a fourth quarter lead.  When in doubt, go with the home team.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (-3) - Uggh.  If you thought the Jets-Jaguars game was bad, here’s a matchup you can really forget about before it starts.  I wish I didn’t even have to make a pick here because the thought of guessing wrong and having to count this beyond-inconsequential draft pick positioning duel toward my record in any shape or form is nerve-jangling.  OK, hyperbole aside, how about the Raiders with extra rest at home against a team that just let the Cleveland Browns drop 30 points on them?

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-1.5) - Well well well, the New York Jets could almost inexplicably still make the playoffs, and that would surely make them the 2011 Broncos (8-8) or the 2010 Seahawks (7-9) of 2012.  The Titans are still too mistake-prone to move up in the AFC ranks, but I really liked how that Tennessee defense played against the Colts in Indy last week. But because I've only picked one other team against the spread that really shouldn't be (Giants), I'm going with the Jets here, I guess.


Last Week's Record: 8 - 8
Season Record: 134 - 73 - 1