Lady Blitz Special Note: Here Be My 50th Post Since Starting This Blog! We're at just over 2,000 hits all time, and I suspect at least half of those aren't me or social media spam!
Week 14 comes to us with a surprising number of playoff scenarios still in play, even though four teams have already clinched a berth (Texans, Broncos, Patriots and Falcons). Teams like the Giants and 49ers that seemed to have a lock on their divisions a couple weeks ago suddenly find their divisional compadres nipping at the heels. All of that makes the Top Shelf richer and the House Punch, well, it's metaphorically free, isn't it? Without further adieu, here are my Week 14 Picks:
Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking
Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-3.5)
Here's an AFC powerhouse matchup that will almost certainly hold up to the preseason hype, making it our Lady Blitz Game of the Week. It's a tough prognostication too. The Texans have only played one team that is comparable in offensive performance this season (Packers), which is also their only loss to date. The Pats have lost to three defensively stellar teams this year (Cardinals, Ravens and Seahawks) but have been on a hot streak against much less formidable teams lately. I don't think I'll necessarily get this one right, but I think if anyone has the chops to upset the Patriots at home right now, it's the Texans.
Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
The teams may be middling in the grand scheme of things, but this ought to be a pretty good game since both are in a must-win situation to stay in the Wild Card pack and just about evenly matched in my opinion. I've gone back and forth on this one, which is usually a bad sign, but I think the Bengals are in a better place right now to make a late season move than Big D.
These are the tricky kinds of games that I (and many pundits) tend to lose. We look at the short term trends (Redskins up, Ravens down) and our related erroneous picks and then overcompensate. After watching RGIII absolutely school supposedly elite defenses for three weeks with perhaps the best play action skills I've ever seen though, I don't think Baltimore will have an answer either in this exciting regional matchup.
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (-5)
Here are the two big questions: 1) Will the Saints still be playing for pride on Sunday in the Meadowlands?; and/or 2) Will the Giants finally channel that sense of urgency they've used so well over the years to stay atop the NFC East? It's hard to say which of these teams will show up this week, which makes this a very dicey pick in my mind. Absolutely nobody wants to play New York with their backs up against the wall in December, but the Saints have downright schooled them in these teams' past several meetings with double-digit wins. On the bases of history, extra rest, and one last gasp of misguided team loyalty, I like the Saints in an upset.Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations
St. Louis Rams at Buffalo Bills (-3)
This game really could go either way depending on which offense does or doesn't show up in Buffalo. If C.J. Spiller has a big day, Buffalo should have the upper hand. But if the Rams can get inside that O-Line's head early and often (which they appear capable of doing), St. Louis should be able to eke out a key road win. I like it.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-5.5)
How about them Colts? They haven't lost at home since Week 3's improbable Jaguars comeback. They look a whole lot better these days than they did back then, and the Titans do not.
Chicago Bears (-3) at Minnesota Vikings
The Bears defense will have its hands full with Adrian Peterson at the Metrodome, but having Charles Tillman back certainly helps for whenever Christian Ponder must inevitably throw a pass. The Cutler-Marshall connection could also be critical to stretching the Vikings' defense and building an early lead before the Minnesota ground game can send them into hibernation.
San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)
The Chargers are a stunning 0 - 14 all time at Heinz Field. Don't expect them to do anything different on Sunday the way they're playing right now. Even if we're tentatively in for another dose of Charlie Batch.Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-7)
Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers still don't look quite like their dominant selves of 2011, which means Detroit could try to give them a run for their money just as they tried to do so at Ford Field earlier this year. The operative word being "tried." P.S., The Lions haven't won at Lambeau since 1991 when Barry Sanders was still wasting his beautiful, beautiful talent on them.
Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers
I think this game could be closer than some expect. The last matchup between these divisional rivals certainly was. But with Atlanta a hair away from locking up the #1 seed in the NFC, it's hard to believe the Falcons will let this game slip away from their evil, evil clutches. I think Carolina fans should throw pulled pork at their charter bus.
House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest
Denver Broncos (-10) at Oakland Raiders
Yeesh. Over the past month, everyone and their mom has been putting up gaudy yards and points against the Oakland Raiders. Don't expect that to change in the slightest against Peyton Manning's Broncos.
It has to be more than a conspiracy theory at this point that Arizona's only playing for a good draft pick. Why on Earth otherwise would you start Ryan Lindley AGAIN (you know, the guy that made the Jets' third string quarterback look competent while making Larry Fitzgerald look real bad?) against the Seattle Seahawks' defense at CenturyLink?
Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns (-6.5)
The Kansas City Chiefs' win this past week reminded me of Indy's big comeback against the Packers earlier this year right after the team learned Coach Chuck Pagano had been diagnosed with leukemia. It was emotionally significant, but the Colts faltered in a big way the following week against the Jets. I expect similar feelings of sadness and exhaustion to set upon the Chiefs here during what has easily been the toughest season in KC history.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5)
The Philadelphia Eagles are the very definition of a tailspin these days with eight consecutive losses and counting. Meanwhile, the Bucs ought to be fired up at the prospect of keeping their playoff hopes alive at home.
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (-10)
Oh noez, neither San Francisco quarterback is infallible! Whatever shall we do? Playing a lesser non-conference opponent at home should restore confidence in the 49ers faithful and new starting QB Colin Kaepernick while Alex Smith still paces the sidelines with his helmet on. Maybe we should connect him with Miss Havisham?
New York Jets (-2.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Who will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory? Mark Sanchez? (Update: Yes) Greg McElroy? Chad Henne? I know that the Jets should and might well win this game, but then again, they only edged out Ryan Lindley last week by one point at home. And the Jaguars look like they've been feeling a little more confident over the past month than they have in a long time.
So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 10 - 6
Season Record: 126 - 65 - 1
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