December 30, 2017
Who Should I Cheer for in the College Football Playoffs? Finding an NFL Spirit Animal for Each Team
Hey y'all - it's been a minute, hasn't it? I took this NFL season off from blogging, mainly because it has gotten harder to carve out the time to write regularly (and well) with other good stuff going on in my life. No regrets, but I've got the itch to write about playoffs - college and pro - so let this be the first of a smattering of new posts as we gear up for 2018! Now onto one of my favorite annual features: a preview for each of the four College Football Playoff contenders. So who should you cheer for if you're glued to the couch on Sundays
instead of Saturdays? I've prepared a scientifically airtight
translation guide to help. Meet the 2018 final four and their NFL
spirit animals!
Enjoy the games!!!
August 27, 2017
Lady Blitz Fantasy Football 2017
Team Bakery Special has returned for Year 5 of fantasy football in hopes of reclaiming the crown. Sure, I'm merely in an 8-team league, but at the outset, this looks like one of the best hauls I've ever pulled off. I'm all but guaranteed to jinx my way to untimely injuries and big-time busts.
Starters:
Bench:
Starters:
- Philip Rivers (QB)
- David Johnson (RB)
- Melvin Gordon (RB)
- Julio Jones (WR)
- Michael Thomas (WR)
- Martellus Bennett (TE)
- Kareem Hunt (Flex)
- Eagles (D/ST)
- Dan Bailey (K)
Bench:
- Golden Tate (WR)
- Jamison Crowder (WR)
- Chris Hogan (WR)
- Corey Davis (WR)
- Jack Doyle (TE)
- Paul Perkins (RB)
- Jacquizz Rogers (RB)
- Alvin Kamara (RB)
- Matt Stafford (QB)
February 16, 2017
The 20 Best and Dumbest Things of the 2016 NFL Season
It's time for my final post of the season, so I thought I'd do something a little different than ranking the best games of the year - after all, the playoffs were largely snooze-worthy blowouts, and the regular season was notoriously bland for a good long while. So here's my retrospective on the best and dumbest things that happened this season. I should caution you that I am considering hanging up my blogging cleats as well, so this might be my last post for a while. I haven't decided for certain and that summer itch for football always gives me a little creative spark, but my work leaves me with a lot less mental energy and desire to be in front of a computer when I get home. So I'm just giving you a heads up to soak it in while I walk the earth in the offseason.
The Rise of the Dallas Rookies
The Cowboys looked primed for a small-scale revival with a healthy Tony Romo returning after a down-and-out 4 - 12 campaign in 2015... until Romo immediately suffered another back injury in the preseason. Little-hyped fourth-rounder Dak Prescott stepped in and the rest is history. We knew Ezekiel Elliott would take full advantage of Dallas' mighty offensive line, but in combination with Prescott's efficient passing game, the Cowboys fought their way to a 13 - 3 record, the top seed in the NFC and Rookie of the Year honors for Prescott. Even I found myself rooting for Dallas this year, and I don't regret it.
Michael Thomas' Quietly Great Debut
I don't have much else to write about the Saints this season, but just underneath all of the deserved fanfare for Elliott and Prescott, another rookie had a quietly outstanding year - Michael Thomas. Thomas finished the year with 92 receptions - the second-most by a rookie in NFL history - and 1,137 yards, seventh-best all-time. And this isn't your run-of-the-mill dink and dunk kind of receiver - he does stuff like this that might put him right up there with Odell Beckham in another year or two. #cantguardmike
The Giants' Defensive Resurrection
If there's a unit that deserves big kudos for most improved by a wide margin this season, it has to be the New York Giants' defense. In 2015, they were a rudderless squad without a pass rush, and that let to a league-worst performance in total yards and passing yards allowed and third-worst in points allowed. So the Giants took a gamble with some big acquisitions in the offseason including Olivier Vernon to crash the line of scrimmage and Janoris Jenkins to play the role of shutdown corner, and they ended 2016 as one of the best defenses in the NFL, second only to the Patriots in points allowed. With those big free agents paying off and New York getting great play from its young, emerging stars Landon Collins and Eli Apple, the Giants' turnaround should be considered far more than a fluke.
Boatghazi-ghazi
Speaking of the Giants, there wasn't a dumber media phenomenon this season than Boatghazi, a.k.a. the manufactured outrage toward New York's receivers for taking a trip to Miami on their off day before wild card weekend. They had the audacity - the audacity! - not only to fly to South Beach on a planned day off between Week 17 and the playoffs but also to take a picture with Justin Bieber on a dang boat. What followed was a snowball of tabloid obsession that made this non-story into the story going into the Giants' next game against the Packers. Add in a couple early drops by Odell Beckham and Boatghazi became a self-fulfilling prophecy of New York's doom, despite the fact that it was the Giants defense that gave up a half-time Hail Mary and let Aaron Rodgers eat them alive in the third quarter to seal the loss. Do I think a 3-hour plane ride and some beachside R&R did Beckham and company in that wild card weekend? Absolutely not. But I do think the op-ed swirl around that day and the media’s obsession with its own obsession probably made it difficult for these players to move past their early jitters at Lambeau without connecting it to what those hacks and trolls would be saying. If you make a big enough deal of something, it ultimately becomes a big deal. Kind of like the Buccaneers trading up to get formerly highly accurate kicker Roberto Aguayo in the second round and giving him an automatic case of the yips when he wasn’t perfect.
Le'Veon Bell's All-Purpose Romp
Hopefully Le'Veon Bell can start a full season sometime in the future when the Steelers sign him to a fat long-term contract - he seems primed for a non-quarterback MVP run. Despite missing the first three games of the season, Bell managed to rack up 140 all-purpose yards or more in nine games, often carrying the offense on his back when Ben Roethlisberger couldn't. Arguably his best performance of the year was in a snowy Week 14 battle in the trenches in Buffalo where he put up 236 yards on the ground and Pittsburgh won comfortably despite Big Ben's disastrous 0 TD, 3 INT stat line. And it's not just putting up big numbers, it's Bell's very patient style in which he looks like he's going to run into a wall of linemen before cutting into a suddenly open gap for big gains. I guarantee you'll see a lot more running backs give this style a try next year - it's just hard to say who will actually be able to do what Bell can.
Seahawks-Cardinals, 6 - 6 (OT)
Ah yes, the ultimate Rorschach test of whether the NFL is good anymore took place on Sunday night (and for some folks Monday morning) in Week 8. After a slew of underwhelming blowouts and C-list matchups in prime time in the weeks before, we got a very sloppy, low-scoring affair - in fact, it brought us the lowest points scored ever in an overtime NFL game. There were blocked punts, blocked field goals and turnovers on downs, amounting to a 3 - 3 (!) tie at the end of the fourth quarter. Making matters worse, both teams had the opportunity to put the game away with field goal attempts inside the 30 yardline in the fifth quarter, but they shanked all of those kicks badly, and the rest is very unremarkable history.
Julio Jones' Career-Ruining Day
If I were a more magnanimous person, I could write a whole post just about how amazing all of those playmakers were on the Falcons' offense this season. But I'm going to streamline it to Julio Jones, who did plenty to ensure an Atlanta Super Bowl win when nobody else ultimately did. More on that later. Anyway, Jones has been a top tier receiver for the entirety of his NFL career, and one of the pinnacles of his work to date had to be his 300-yard, 12-catch receiving day against the Panthers in Week 4, nearly doubling his previous career-best performance. It was enough to send Carolina's CB Bene Benwikere packing less than a week later and make Carolina wish it had a time machine to keep Josh Norman under the franchise tag many moons earlier. Julioooooo.
Ryan Pickspatrick
If you believe there should be an equal and opposite reaction for Jones' stellar day for Atlanta, look no further than Ryan Fitzpatrick's six-interception debacle in Kansas City. I have so, so many questions about this. For one, why does Fitzpatrick continue to insist on throwing to the right sideline after the second pick on that side of the field? Why did Todd Bowles think, "Eh, four picks are bad, but..." and "Five picks are bad, but..." instead of putting in one of the millions of other mediocre Jets quarterbacks on the sideline when it was still a two-score game? Perhaps the worst part of all of this is that the Fitz had a clean pocket most of the afternoon with just 10 pressures in 47 dropbacks. Give those Harvard grads too much time to think, and the ish can really hit the fan.
Matt Stafford's Fourth Quarter Mojo
The Lions eventually flamed out in January once again like they do, but before all of that, they broke an NFL record with eight fourth-quarter comeback wins this season. That may not bode so well for future years because of its fluky nature, but Matt Stafford deserves a lot of credit for his many season-saving sub-two-minute drills against the likes of the Vikings, Bears, Colts and Redskinks. He was even a viable MVP candidate before Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers caught fire due to the improbable myriad ways he marched Detroit down the field with mere seconds on the clock. Of course, I'd be remiss if I didn't also give props to kicker Matt Prater for topping off a number of drives with go-ahead field goals and to Detroit's secondary for at least three game-sealing picks. And since this is the most joy Lions fans will be able to feel for many months to come, you can check out each of those comebacks here including Stafford's final pièce de résistance - a touchdown scramble in traffic against the Bears that would eventually yield a wild card spot.
Chris Boswell's Sad Rabona
Even though Le'Veon Bell was tremendous, I'm still not sure what to think of the Steelers this year. They might have been one of the most underwhelming teams to make a conference championship in recent memory due to their inconsistent offense and sometimes vulnerable defensive scheming. So if Bell was the best thing to come out of Pittsburgh this season, I give you arguably the worst individual play of the entire year, kicker Chris Boswell's failed rabona of an onside kick. In fairness, the Steelers didn't have much to lose being down by a touchdown with less than a minute to go, and Boswell's done this play successfully before in college, but when the execution is just plain bad, that's all we'll ever remember. Just ask Marcus Colston.
Eric Berry's Pick Eight
For all the understandable worship that quarterbacks get for being the most central to their teams' success, I relish those instrumental non-passer performances that come up a few times a season like Eric Berry's pick six and pick two versus the Falcons in Week 13. In case your memory is rusty, the Chiefs ended up winning that game by just one point, so it's fair to say that without their top safety, Kansas City doesn't win that one or earn the #2 seed in the AFC. (Now, what they ultimately did with that bye week and home game in the divisional round is another sad story for later on). Berry has long been one of the most dynamic defensive players in the game, and it's not just the situational nature of these two plays that make them great - they also showcase his Xs and Os savvy at sitting on routes and befuddling the best quarterback of 2016 as well as his elusiveness and speed with the ball in the open field. Now if only the Chiefs could get him to the Super Bowl he deserves...
The Surprising Success of Exotic Smashmouth
Considering that I predicted 8 of 12 playoff contenders this season, I can't beat myself up too much over my preseason projections, BUT one team I was delightfully surprised I underestimated was the Tennessee Titans. Having gone 5 - 27 over the previous two seasons and opting to bring back historically awful coach Mike Mularkey for a full-time head coaching gig seemed like a really bad idea to me, especially when he trotted out that gotta-be-a-gimmick exotic smashmouth mantra. Fast forward a year later, and Mularkey is coming off of the Titans' first winning season in five years - a season in which they had a real shot at winning the division well into December due to the revived running game of DeMarco Murray and the evolution of Marcus Mariota as a pretty darn efficient and versatile passer. As I've often mentioned in this space before, I'm grateful when the Titans are good because we are subjected to them every week in our viewing area, and it's hard not to cheer for Mariota as an up-and-coming passer with potential really starting to come through. Sorry I doubted you, coach, and special props to Tennessee's superb offensive line for seeing through the smashmouth part of the deal.
The Raiders' Cruel Fate
Speaking of young teams on the rise, who didn't love the Raiders this year? They were like the anti-Jaguars with all of their top draft picks reaching their full potential and taking this team to its first playoff appearance in 14 (!) seasons. And yet, as Oakland was eyeing the top seed in the AFC and rallying around MVP hopeful Derek Carr, he broke his fibula toward the end of a Week 16 blowout. Gone were the Raiders' chances of making a deep postseason run or knocking off the Patriots along the way to make the Super Bowl more interesting - they were dead men walking by the time they faced the somewhat less hapless Texans in the wild card round. The good news is that Oakland have their top talent locked up for a while with Carr, Amari Cooper and Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack. The bad news is that it's just hard to string together that many wins year over year, and it could take a few years for the Raiders to have another shot like that, especially if Tom Brady's still playing into his 50s.
The Texans' Quarterback "Controversy"
There are probably some fancy statistical models out there to identify even worse free agency deals this season, but no dud was more visible than Brock Osweiler's abysmal debut in Houston. After playing a few games for Denver behind a historically good defense and a balanced rushing attack, Osweiler was hung out to dry as a starter for the Texans. He finished 29th of 30 qualified quarterbacks in passer rating and dead last in yards per attempt by a wide margin, which should give any Houston fan heartburn over the $19 million he is due this upcoming season and the $25 million in dead cap money they'd have to shell out to cut him. You know it's bad when your fans would rather see you benched for Tom Savage - a career backup who'd previously played in just one NFL game two years prior - even when you're fighting neck and neck for a division title. Eventually, Savage got a concussion and the Texans were forced to turn back to Osweiler for another pathetic divisional round performance in Foxborough. But he's going to be a fat sunk cost for a little while to come - the Broncos really dodged a bullet there whether they meant to or not.
The Latest Andy Reid Clock Management Disaster
If there's a team that always makes me the Charlie Brown to Lucy's football, it has to be the Kansas City Chiefs. They've had four consecutive winning seasons, three playoff bids and a division title since Andy Reid and Alex Smith came to town, yet there's something about January that puts this highly talented and well-balanced team in neutral like... clockwork. What could it be? Oh yeah, it's the 100% certainty with which Andy Reid will attempt to bend the rules of time and space when all his team needs is just one dang measly two-minute drill. It happened yet again in the Chiefs' latest postseason flame out this year. Down by eight with less than 10 minutes left in the game, Reid dialed up an agonizing seven-minute touchdown drive and also burned his second timeout in the process. When the Chiefs' two-point conversion and onside kick failed, they found themselves completely out of options to win yet again. Nevermind that they had kept the Steelers out of the end zone all night and could have easily gotten themselves another possession with just a little urgency. That's not how Andy Reid rolls, and it never will be to the misery of KC fans everywhere.
Commonplace Aaron Rodgers Miracles
Just when you think you've seen it all from No. 12, he does something even more insane that just shouldn't happen, kind of like Steph Curry making a half court shot while draped by defenders on both sides. Last year, Aaron Rodgers gave us the game-clinching Miracle in Motown and two consecutive Hail Marys to take the game to overtime in the divisional round versus Arizona. This year, he put his money where his mouth was by running the table after starting out 4 - 6 with plenty of dazzling plays to boot. Those included a 60-yard bomb in the final 30 seconds in Chicago to set up a game-winning field goal, a jujitsu pocket scramble and a half-time Hail Mary to crush the Giants' hopes in the wild card round, and this last-second laser to Jared Cook on the sideline to edge past the Cowboys in the divisional round. None of these plays make any sense - and any other quarterback who's attempted them has had about a 10% success rate at best. But Rodgers just keeps making the near-impossible seem not just easy, but expected when his back is against the wall, and it's a lot of fun for the rest of us when our team isn't playing the Packers.
Dallas vs. Green Bay, Divisional Round
If I were doing the typical “best games of the season” post, there would be a few worth mentioning alongside some of the others referenced around here - the Steelers-Cowboys shootout of Week 10, Oakland’s gutsy two-point conversion against the Saints in Week 1, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan trading spectacular touchdown drives in Week 8 and Seattle’s goal-line stand against the Patriots in Week 10. But overall, I’d say the most exciting game of the year (for non-Patriots fans anyway) had to be the Cowboys versus the Packers in the divisional round. It had the kind of star power and fanfare that big-market fanbases bring, but it also completely lived up to the hype. Green Bay took an early decisive lead that built to a 15-point margin in the third quarter thanks to big drives by Aaron Rodgers and WR-to-RB Ty Montgomery. But for those wondering if eventual Rookie of the Year Dak Prescott would buckle under the limelight, he rattled off two touchdowns, a two-point conversion and field goal drive in the fourth quarter to pull even with the Packers, thanks in no small part to a huge day from Dez Bryant. I for one thought Green Bay was cooked at that point as they’ve been in several of the most agonizing playoff losses we’ve seen in the past five years. But with less than 15 seconds left on the clock at their own 32-yard line right after Rodgers took a huge blindside sack, he delivered with that freakish sideline throw to give Mason Crosby a 51-yard chance, and the rest is history.
The Los Angeles Freakin' Chargers
And now for a non-game time “dumbest thing” of epic proportions - Dean Spanos’ highly unadvisable decision to move the Chargers from San Diego to Los Angeles next season. To recap how this house of cards came to be, Rams owner Sam Kroenke jockeyed his way past the Chargers and Raiders to L.A. last season by working a deal that would allow the Chargers one year to decide whether they wanted to lease the stadium too. Spanos tried and failed to use that as leverage in a public referendum for the city to fund a new stadium in San Diego, but residents didn’t bite by a wide margin because, you know, their team owner is a billionaire in one of the richest sports leagues in the world. And so against many other owners’ advice, Spanos unilaterally opted to move another underperforming and unpopular team to a city that didn’t want the first one and certainly doesn’t care one matcha latte for this second wave of transplants. In fact, until the new stadium is built in Inglewood, the Chargers will be playing in the 30,000-seat StubHub Center, where the landlords have been abundantly clear that this team is second banana to the MLS L.A. Galaxy. Putting fuel on the fire, they might not have franchise stalwarts Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates, and they’ll be starting over with a new coach who will probably need a whole lot of time and luck to make this team remotely relevant in three years. My guess is the aggressively apathetic fans of Los Angeles aren’t going to go out of their way to see the Chargers through the dark times ahead in this extraordinarily dumb change of scenery.
Atlanta's Super Bowl Collapse
I tried to be as nice as could be expected to the Falcons last week while also acknowledging all of the crazy, unbelievable things the Patriots did to come back from a 25-point deficit in the third quarter and win the first overtime Super Bowl. So having paid my penance, can we keep talking about all of the astounding things Atlanta did to blow said 25-point lead? Even trying to set my own rooting interests aside, I think I’ve settled on this being more embarrassing than the Warriors and Indians blowing 3 - 1 leads in their respective championships this past year given the size of the viewing audience and the sheer win probabilities the Falcons had through the game’s first 55 minutes before falling off of a mile-high cliff. What were they [over]thinking when they decided to run the ball just four times (four!) after building a 25-point lead in the second half, having just gashed the Patriots for 86 yards and nine yards per carry on the ground in the first half? How did they blow so many chances to put the game away after 1) recovering an onside kick on one possession; and 2) getting within the Pats’ 25-yard line on another and coming away with zero points? Why did they have to ruin that incredible Julio Jones catch that should have been on highlight reels for years to come with one of the most indefensible sets of play-calling I've ever seen thereafter? Why did Matt Ryan keep snapping the ball with 15 and 20+ seconds left on the play clock over and over to give Brady even an inch? It’s truly mind-boggling when you put all of the pieces together, so either this thing was rigged or Atlanta is genuinely cursed in mystical ways that cannot be put to human words.
The Year of the Offensive Line
Aw man, you're thinking, if you made it this far in this monster post. Why would JLotz save such an unsexy topic like offensive lines for the final best or dumbest thing about the NFL season? Well, you know what? Offensive lines matter a whole lot, and they never get the public appreciation they deserve for anchoring most of the highlight reels and top performances in the league. This year, that was all the more apparent for most of the NFL's top brass. As I've mentioned a few times before, the Falcons offense went from good to non-ironic elite when Alex Mack came over from the Browns and Atlanta managed to start every game this year with the same five guys - it paid off not just in protecting MVP Matt Ryan but making the Falcons' ground game one of the most efficient in the league. Then there was the Patriots' coaxing OL coach Dante Scarnacchia out of retirement after last year's 20-quarterback-hit fiasco versus Denver in the AFC Championship. He transformed Marcus Cannon from a withering human turnstile into an All Pro in a matter of months - and his team won another freakin' Super Bowl. Then there are up-and-comers like the Raiders and Titans who've invested heavily in their gigantic lines through the draft and free agency in recent years and who will certainly be hyped as playoff contenders going into the 2017 season because of how good they were offensively this season. Seahawks, take note - this could be you if you put more than, say 4.5% of your cap allocation toward your offensive line next year.
The Rise of the Dallas Rookies
The Cowboys looked primed for a small-scale revival with a healthy Tony Romo returning after a down-and-out 4 - 12 campaign in 2015... until Romo immediately suffered another back injury in the preseason. Little-hyped fourth-rounder Dak Prescott stepped in and the rest is history. We knew Ezekiel Elliott would take full advantage of Dallas' mighty offensive line, but in combination with Prescott's efficient passing game, the Cowboys fought their way to a 13 - 3 record, the top seed in the NFC and Rookie of the Year honors for Prescott. Even I found myself rooting for Dallas this year, and I don't regret it.
Michael Thomas' Quietly Great Debut
I don't have much else to write about the Saints this season, but just underneath all of the deserved fanfare for Elliott and Prescott, another rookie had a quietly outstanding year - Michael Thomas. Thomas finished the year with 92 receptions - the second-most by a rookie in NFL history - and 1,137 yards, seventh-best all-time. And this isn't your run-of-the-mill dink and dunk kind of receiver - he does stuff like this that might put him right up there with Odell Beckham in another year or two. #cantguardmike
The Giants' Defensive Resurrection
If there's a unit that deserves big kudos for most improved by a wide margin this season, it has to be the New York Giants' defense. In 2015, they were a rudderless squad without a pass rush, and that let to a league-worst performance in total yards and passing yards allowed and third-worst in points allowed. So the Giants took a gamble with some big acquisitions in the offseason including Olivier Vernon to crash the line of scrimmage and Janoris Jenkins to play the role of shutdown corner, and they ended 2016 as one of the best defenses in the NFL, second only to the Patriots in points allowed. With those big free agents paying off and New York getting great play from its young, emerging stars Landon Collins and Eli Apple, the Giants' turnaround should be considered far more than a fluke.
Boatghazi-ghazi
Speaking of the Giants, there wasn't a dumber media phenomenon this season than Boatghazi, a.k.a. the manufactured outrage toward New York's receivers for taking a trip to Miami on their off day before wild card weekend. They had the audacity - the audacity! - not only to fly to South Beach on a planned day off between Week 17 and the playoffs but also to take a picture with Justin Bieber on a dang boat. What followed was a snowball of tabloid obsession that made this non-story into the story going into the Giants' next game against the Packers. Add in a couple early drops by Odell Beckham and Boatghazi became a self-fulfilling prophecy of New York's doom, despite the fact that it was the Giants defense that gave up a half-time Hail Mary and let Aaron Rodgers eat them alive in the third quarter to seal the loss. Do I think a 3-hour plane ride and some beachside R&R did Beckham and company in that wild card weekend? Absolutely not. But I do think the op-ed swirl around that day and the media’s obsession with its own obsession probably made it difficult for these players to move past their early jitters at Lambeau without connecting it to what those hacks and trolls would be saying. If you make a big enough deal of something, it ultimately becomes a big deal. Kind of like the Buccaneers trading up to get formerly highly accurate kicker Roberto Aguayo in the second round and giving him an automatic case of the yips when he wasn’t perfect.
Le'Veon Bell's All-Purpose Romp
Hopefully Le'Veon Bell can start a full season sometime in the future when the Steelers sign him to a fat long-term contract - he seems primed for a non-quarterback MVP run. Despite missing the first three games of the season, Bell managed to rack up 140 all-purpose yards or more in nine games, often carrying the offense on his back when Ben Roethlisberger couldn't. Arguably his best performance of the year was in a snowy Week 14 battle in the trenches in Buffalo where he put up 236 yards on the ground and Pittsburgh won comfortably despite Big Ben's disastrous 0 TD, 3 INT stat line. And it's not just putting up big numbers, it's Bell's very patient style in which he looks like he's going to run into a wall of linemen before cutting into a suddenly open gap for big gains. I guarantee you'll see a lot more running backs give this style a try next year - it's just hard to say who will actually be able to do what Bell can.
Seahawks-Cardinals, 6 - 6 (OT)
Ah yes, the ultimate Rorschach test of whether the NFL is good anymore took place on Sunday night (and for some folks Monday morning) in Week 8. After a slew of underwhelming blowouts and C-list matchups in prime time in the weeks before, we got a very sloppy, low-scoring affair - in fact, it brought us the lowest points scored ever in an overtime NFL game. There were blocked punts, blocked field goals and turnovers on downs, amounting to a 3 - 3 (!) tie at the end of the fourth quarter. Making matters worse, both teams had the opportunity to put the game away with field goal attempts inside the 30 yardline in the fifth quarter, but they shanked all of those kicks badly, and the rest is very unremarkable history.
Julio Jones' Career-Ruining Day
If I were a more magnanimous person, I could write a whole post just about how amazing all of those playmakers were on the Falcons' offense this season. But I'm going to streamline it to Julio Jones, who did plenty to ensure an Atlanta Super Bowl win when nobody else ultimately did. More on that later. Anyway, Jones has been a top tier receiver for the entirety of his NFL career, and one of the pinnacles of his work to date had to be his 300-yard, 12-catch receiving day against the Panthers in Week 4, nearly doubling his previous career-best performance. It was enough to send Carolina's CB Bene Benwikere packing less than a week later and make Carolina wish it had a time machine to keep Josh Norman under the franchise tag many moons earlier. Julioooooo.
Ryan Pickspatrick
If you believe there should be an equal and opposite reaction for Jones' stellar day for Atlanta, look no further than Ryan Fitzpatrick's six-interception debacle in Kansas City. I have so, so many questions about this. For one, why does Fitzpatrick continue to insist on throwing to the right sideline after the second pick on that side of the field? Why did Todd Bowles think, "Eh, four picks are bad, but..." and "Five picks are bad, but..." instead of putting in one of the millions of other mediocre Jets quarterbacks on the sideline when it was still a two-score game? Perhaps the worst part of all of this is that the Fitz had a clean pocket most of the afternoon with just 10 pressures in 47 dropbacks. Give those Harvard grads too much time to think, and the ish can really hit the fan.
Matt Stafford's Fourth Quarter Mojo
The Lions eventually flamed out in January once again like they do, but before all of that, they broke an NFL record with eight fourth-quarter comeback wins this season. That may not bode so well for future years because of its fluky nature, but Matt Stafford deserves a lot of credit for his many season-saving sub-two-minute drills against the likes of the Vikings, Bears, Colts and Redskinks. He was even a viable MVP candidate before Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers caught fire due to the improbable myriad ways he marched Detroit down the field with mere seconds on the clock. Of course, I'd be remiss if I didn't also give props to kicker Matt Prater for topping off a number of drives with go-ahead field goals and to Detroit's secondary for at least three game-sealing picks. And since this is the most joy Lions fans will be able to feel for many months to come, you can check out each of those comebacks here including Stafford's final pièce de résistance - a touchdown scramble in traffic against the Bears that would eventually yield a wild card spot.
Chris Boswell's Sad Rabona
Even though Le'Veon Bell was tremendous, I'm still not sure what to think of the Steelers this year. They might have been one of the most underwhelming teams to make a conference championship in recent memory due to their inconsistent offense and sometimes vulnerable defensive scheming. So if Bell was the best thing to come out of Pittsburgh this season, I give you arguably the worst individual play of the entire year, kicker Chris Boswell's failed rabona of an onside kick. In fairness, the Steelers didn't have much to lose being down by a touchdown with less than a minute to go, and Boswell's done this play successfully before in college, but when the execution is just plain bad, that's all we'll ever remember. Just ask Marcus Colston.
Eric Berry's Pick Eight
For all the understandable worship that quarterbacks get for being the most central to their teams' success, I relish those instrumental non-passer performances that come up a few times a season like Eric Berry's pick six and pick two versus the Falcons in Week 13. In case your memory is rusty, the Chiefs ended up winning that game by just one point, so it's fair to say that without their top safety, Kansas City doesn't win that one or earn the #2 seed in the AFC. (Now, what they ultimately did with that bye week and home game in the divisional round is another sad story for later on). Berry has long been one of the most dynamic defensive players in the game, and it's not just the situational nature of these two plays that make them great - they also showcase his Xs and Os savvy at sitting on routes and befuddling the best quarterback of 2016 as well as his elusiveness and speed with the ball in the open field. Now if only the Chiefs could get him to the Super Bowl he deserves...
The Surprising Success of Exotic Smashmouth
Considering that I predicted 8 of 12 playoff contenders this season, I can't beat myself up too much over my preseason projections, BUT one team I was delightfully surprised I underestimated was the Tennessee Titans. Having gone 5 - 27 over the previous two seasons and opting to bring back historically awful coach Mike Mularkey for a full-time head coaching gig seemed like a really bad idea to me, especially when he trotted out that gotta-be-a-gimmick exotic smashmouth mantra. Fast forward a year later, and Mularkey is coming off of the Titans' first winning season in five years - a season in which they had a real shot at winning the division well into December due to the revived running game of DeMarco Murray and the evolution of Marcus Mariota as a pretty darn efficient and versatile passer. As I've often mentioned in this space before, I'm grateful when the Titans are good because we are subjected to them every week in our viewing area, and it's hard not to cheer for Mariota as an up-and-coming passer with potential really starting to come through. Sorry I doubted you, coach, and special props to Tennessee's superb offensive line for seeing through the smashmouth part of the deal.
The Raiders' Cruel Fate
Speaking of young teams on the rise, who didn't love the Raiders this year? They were like the anti-Jaguars with all of their top draft picks reaching their full potential and taking this team to its first playoff appearance in 14 (!) seasons. And yet, as Oakland was eyeing the top seed in the AFC and rallying around MVP hopeful Derek Carr, he broke his fibula toward the end of a Week 16 blowout. Gone were the Raiders' chances of making a deep postseason run or knocking off the Patriots along the way to make the Super Bowl more interesting - they were dead men walking by the time they faced the somewhat less hapless Texans in the wild card round. The good news is that Oakland have their top talent locked up for a while with Carr, Amari Cooper and Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack. The bad news is that it's just hard to string together that many wins year over year, and it could take a few years for the Raiders to have another shot like that, especially if Tom Brady's still playing into his 50s.
The Texans' Quarterback "Controversy"
There are probably some fancy statistical models out there to identify even worse free agency deals this season, but no dud was more visible than Brock Osweiler's abysmal debut in Houston. After playing a few games for Denver behind a historically good defense and a balanced rushing attack, Osweiler was hung out to dry as a starter for the Texans. He finished 29th of 30 qualified quarterbacks in passer rating and dead last in yards per attempt by a wide margin, which should give any Houston fan heartburn over the $19 million he is due this upcoming season and the $25 million in dead cap money they'd have to shell out to cut him. You know it's bad when your fans would rather see you benched for Tom Savage - a career backup who'd previously played in just one NFL game two years prior - even when you're fighting neck and neck for a division title. Eventually, Savage got a concussion and the Texans were forced to turn back to Osweiler for another pathetic divisional round performance in Foxborough. But he's going to be a fat sunk cost for a little while to come - the Broncos really dodged a bullet there whether they meant to or not.
The Latest Andy Reid Clock Management Disaster
If there's a team that always makes me the Charlie Brown to Lucy's football, it has to be the Kansas City Chiefs. They've had four consecutive winning seasons, three playoff bids and a division title since Andy Reid and Alex Smith came to town, yet there's something about January that puts this highly talented and well-balanced team in neutral like... clockwork. What could it be? Oh yeah, it's the 100% certainty with which Andy Reid will attempt to bend the rules of time and space when all his team needs is just one dang measly two-minute drill. It happened yet again in the Chiefs' latest postseason flame out this year. Down by eight with less than 10 minutes left in the game, Reid dialed up an agonizing seven-minute touchdown drive and also burned his second timeout in the process. When the Chiefs' two-point conversion and onside kick failed, they found themselves completely out of options to win yet again. Nevermind that they had kept the Steelers out of the end zone all night and could have easily gotten themselves another possession with just a little urgency. That's not how Andy Reid rolls, and it never will be to the misery of KC fans everywhere.
Commonplace Aaron Rodgers Miracles
Just when you think you've seen it all from No. 12, he does something even more insane that just shouldn't happen, kind of like Steph Curry making a half court shot while draped by defenders on both sides. Last year, Aaron Rodgers gave us the game-clinching Miracle in Motown and two consecutive Hail Marys to take the game to overtime in the divisional round versus Arizona. This year, he put his money where his mouth was by running the table after starting out 4 - 6 with plenty of dazzling plays to boot. Those included a 60-yard bomb in the final 30 seconds in Chicago to set up a game-winning field goal, a jujitsu pocket scramble and a half-time Hail Mary to crush the Giants' hopes in the wild card round, and this last-second laser to Jared Cook on the sideline to edge past the Cowboys in the divisional round. None of these plays make any sense - and any other quarterback who's attempted them has had about a 10% success rate at best. But Rodgers just keeps making the near-impossible seem not just easy, but expected when his back is against the wall, and it's a lot of fun for the rest of us when our team isn't playing the Packers.
Dallas vs. Green Bay, Divisional Round
If I were doing the typical “best games of the season” post, there would be a few worth mentioning alongside some of the others referenced around here - the Steelers-Cowboys shootout of Week 10, Oakland’s gutsy two-point conversion against the Saints in Week 1, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan trading spectacular touchdown drives in Week 8 and Seattle’s goal-line stand against the Patriots in Week 10. But overall, I’d say the most exciting game of the year (for non-Patriots fans anyway) had to be the Cowboys versus the Packers in the divisional round. It had the kind of star power and fanfare that big-market fanbases bring, but it also completely lived up to the hype. Green Bay took an early decisive lead that built to a 15-point margin in the third quarter thanks to big drives by Aaron Rodgers and WR-to-RB Ty Montgomery. But for those wondering if eventual Rookie of the Year Dak Prescott would buckle under the limelight, he rattled off two touchdowns, a two-point conversion and field goal drive in the fourth quarter to pull even with the Packers, thanks in no small part to a huge day from Dez Bryant. I for one thought Green Bay was cooked at that point as they’ve been in several of the most agonizing playoff losses we’ve seen in the past five years. But with less than 15 seconds left on the clock at their own 32-yard line right after Rodgers took a huge blindside sack, he delivered with that freakish sideline throw to give Mason Crosby a 51-yard chance, and the rest is history.
The Los Angeles Freakin' Chargers
And now for a non-game time “dumbest thing” of epic proportions - Dean Spanos’ highly unadvisable decision to move the Chargers from San Diego to Los Angeles next season. To recap how this house of cards came to be, Rams owner Sam Kroenke jockeyed his way past the Chargers and Raiders to L.A. last season by working a deal that would allow the Chargers one year to decide whether they wanted to lease the stadium too. Spanos tried and failed to use that as leverage in a public referendum for the city to fund a new stadium in San Diego, but residents didn’t bite by a wide margin because, you know, their team owner is a billionaire in one of the richest sports leagues in the world. And so against many other owners’ advice, Spanos unilaterally opted to move another underperforming and unpopular team to a city that didn’t want the first one and certainly doesn’t care one matcha latte for this second wave of transplants. In fact, until the new stadium is built in Inglewood, the Chargers will be playing in the 30,000-seat StubHub Center, where the landlords have been abundantly clear that this team is second banana to the MLS L.A. Galaxy. Putting fuel on the fire, they might not have franchise stalwarts Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates, and they’ll be starting over with a new coach who will probably need a whole lot of time and luck to make this team remotely relevant in three years. My guess is the aggressively apathetic fans of Los Angeles aren’t going to go out of their way to see the Chargers through the dark times ahead in this extraordinarily dumb change of scenery.
Atlanta's Super Bowl Collapse
I tried to be as nice as could be expected to the Falcons last week while also acknowledging all of the crazy, unbelievable things the Patriots did to come back from a 25-point deficit in the third quarter and win the first overtime Super Bowl. So having paid my penance, can we keep talking about all of the astounding things Atlanta did to blow said 25-point lead? Even trying to set my own rooting interests aside, I think I’ve settled on this being more embarrassing than the Warriors and Indians blowing 3 - 1 leads in their respective championships this past year given the size of the viewing audience and the sheer win probabilities the Falcons had through the game’s first 55 minutes before falling off of a mile-high cliff. What were they [over]thinking when they decided to run the ball just four times (four!) after building a 25-point lead in the second half, having just gashed the Patriots for 86 yards and nine yards per carry on the ground in the first half? How did they blow so many chances to put the game away after 1) recovering an onside kick on one possession; and 2) getting within the Pats’ 25-yard line on another and coming away with zero points? Why did they have to ruin that incredible Julio Jones catch that should have been on highlight reels for years to come with one of the most indefensible sets of play-calling I've ever seen thereafter? Why did Matt Ryan keep snapping the ball with 15 and 20+ seconds left on the play clock over and over to give Brady even an inch? It’s truly mind-boggling when you put all of the pieces together, so either this thing was rigged or Atlanta is genuinely cursed in mystical ways that cannot be put to human words.
The Year of the Offensive Line
Aw man, you're thinking, if you made it this far in this monster post. Why would JLotz save such an unsexy topic like offensive lines for the final best or dumbest thing about the NFL season? Well, you know what? Offensive lines matter a whole lot, and they never get the public appreciation they deserve for anchoring most of the highlight reels and top performances in the league. This year, that was all the more apparent for most of the NFL's top brass. As I've mentioned a few times before, the Falcons offense went from good to non-ironic elite when Alex Mack came over from the Browns and Atlanta managed to start every game this year with the same five guys - it paid off not just in protecting MVP Matt Ryan but making the Falcons' ground game one of the most efficient in the league. Then there was the Patriots' coaxing OL coach Dante Scarnacchia out of retirement after last year's 20-quarterback-hit fiasco versus Denver in the AFC Championship. He transformed Marcus Cannon from a withering human turnstile into an All Pro in a matter of months - and his team won another freakin' Super Bowl. Then there are up-and-comers like the Raiders and Titans who've invested heavily in their gigantic lines through the draft and free agency in recent years and who will certainly be hyped as playoff contenders going into the 2017 season because of how good they were offensively this season. Seahawks, take note - this could be you if you put more than, say 4.5% of your cap allocation toward your offensive line next year.
February 6, 2017
Super Bowl Recap: The Wait, What?! Edition
Well, this is awkward. About this time last night, I was feeling smug but down and out that my Falcons Super Bowl pick was going to turn out more than a little right and that the Saints would no longer have any kind of leg up on their only rival with an MVP and a Lombardi. And then the most twisted of miracles happened and we saw not only our first Super Bowl overtime, but the largest championship comeback (or collapse depending on your side of the coin) of all time and a whole bunch of shattered playoff records. I was as stunned and thrilled as all of those 'Yats shooting fireworks in Metairie as James White crossed the goal line one last time, and yet, it just makes me feel a little icky to gloat too much here about Atlanta's historic self-destruction when I know most of you are channeling some Season 4 Tyra Banks with those Falcons:
As stupidly prideful as I am about those Dirty Birds' misery relative to that of my own dumb team, I certainly cannot say I feel much of anything about the Patriots having everything ultimately go their way once more and crushing the souls and dreams of 98% of America. If I had to rank all of the teams I wanted to see in a Super Bowl this year, I can assure you these would be #31 and #32, despite the objectively fantastic show they put on. But in the spirit of empathy we all so desperately need these days, I can say with a genuine heart that I feel for Falcons fans. There's only been one sporting event in my life that ever made me cry, and it was when the Memphis Tigers blew a nine-point lead with two minutes to go in the NCAA men's championship against the Kansas Jayhawks in 2008. It was the surety and the joy of those minutes just prior, that we would finally win it all before someone lured John Calipari away to greener booster pastures and the country would take notice of that scrappy, underestimated team and its doting city. And then it all crumbled away in the blink of an eye on a series of missed free throws, a 3-point dagger at the buzzer from Mario Chalmers to send it to overtime, and then the immediate, inevitable dread that the Tigers' momentum would never again resurface. Even though it's just sports, to have all of your dreams realized in the palm of your hand and then watch them unthinkably melt away in minutes is a devastating feeling - one that Atlanta sports fans have felt more often than most.
And so, I will offer you a handful of disjointed thoughts on the game as we close the books on one of the weirder, more bittersweet seasons that I can remember.
But going into the late stages of the game with a +2 turnover margin and a 25-point lead, it just felt like the Falcons never saw the comeback coming (who did?!) until it was too late. That pick six and recovered fumble earlier gave Atlanta a lot less distance to the goal line and thus a lower snap count and time of possession than that of the Patriots by a decent margin by the start of the fourth quarter. Could they have run the ball and taken the play clock down to nothing more? Absolutely. But when you're facing a win probability over 99% and you've got the reigning MVP playing an excellent game against a good defense, it's not as much of a risk 99 times out of 100 as you'd think. We've got hindsight for days about those two disastrous passing plays when the Falcons found themselves at the Patriots' 22 yardline late in the quarter, but had they even ended in simple incompletions, which is the worst-case scenario most of the time, we'd be having a whole different conversation today. New England played incredibly well to have a chance, but they also needed some very unlikely lucky bounces like that sequence, a Matt Ryan fumble, a miracle catch from Julian Edelman AND a winning coin toss to go to overtime to pull it off.
As stupidly prideful as I am about those Dirty Birds' misery relative to that of my own dumb team, I certainly cannot say I feel much of anything about the Patriots having everything ultimately go their way once more and crushing the souls and dreams of 98% of America. If I had to rank all of the teams I wanted to see in a Super Bowl this year, I can assure you these would be #31 and #32, despite the objectively fantastic show they put on. But in the spirit of empathy we all so desperately need these days, I can say with a genuine heart that I feel for Falcons fans. There's only been one sporting event in my life that ever made me cry, and it was when the Memphis Tigers blew a nine-point lead with two minutes to go in the NCAA men's championship against the Kansas Jayhawks in 2008. It was the surety and the joy of those minutes just prior, that we would finally win it all before someone lured John Calipari away to greener booster pastures and the country would take notice of that scrappy, underestimated team and its doting city. And then it all crumbled away in the blink of an eye on a series of missed free throws, a 3-point dagger at the buzzer from Mario Chalmers to send it to overtime, and then the immediate, inevitable dread that the Tigers' momentum would never again resurface. Even though it's just sports, to have all of your dreams realized in the palm of your hand and then watch them unthinkably melt away in minutes is a devastating feeling - one that Atlanta sports fans have felt more often than most.
And so, I will offer you a handful of disjointed thoughts on the game as we close the books on one of the weirder, more bittersweet seasons that I can remember.
The Falcons Still Deserved to Win This One
Before all you Pats fans start with your "buts" (and honestly, you should be hiding under a rock for the next 3 - 4 weeks if you're outside of the New England area while everyone else licks their wounds), I simply mean here that Atlanta played well enough to win and it's more than they'll get credit for in the thousands of recountings of bad clock management and play-calling. We figured from the get-go that Atlanta's offense would have its moments, and boy did they deliver on a series of big plays and touchdown strikes from Devonta Freeman, Matt Ryan and Tevin Coleman. And you really can't pin this loss on Ryan - he was exceptional for most of the game at 12 yards per completion and a 144.1 passer rating (158 is a perfect rating for you non-stat heads). But even better and more surprising was the Falcons' defense, holding the Patriots to just 3 points and garnering a pick six in the first half. They did exactly what most people thought they wouldn't be able to in getting consistent pressure on Tom Brady for most of the game including 12 QB hits and five sacks, three of which came from rookie Grady Jarrett, whom I've never heard of.We All Deserved Some Better and Weirder Window Dressing
It's well past cliche at this point to say that Super Bowl [insert numerals here]'s commercials or halftime show didn't live up to the hype. And I guess this year's edition wasn't particularly horrendous compared to the PuppyMonkeyBabies and Black-Eyed Peas of yore. Still, given all of the crazy things in the world these days worth skewering and/or showering in glitter and animatronic tigers (or something), I gotta say I wish there had been a little more zaniness in a dumb consumables commercial and a little more Lady Gaga wearing a meat dress or Kermits or shooting lasers out of her armpits. Just something to shake up all of the heavy stuff that was probably well-intentioned but just dragged down the mood even more as the Patriots' death machine set its sights on those scrappy and doomed Falcons. Now, these ad agencies have just as much right as any of us to preach from the kumbaya gospel if it means stronger first-quarter car sales, but when they all choose that path, it can kill your buzz when you just once want to see a Jack Russell terrier bite a man's crotch or do a CGI variety number to the tune of "Superfreak." We need more balance in the force.James White Most Definitely Should Have Been the MVP
Am I saying Tom Brady wasn't spectacular? I am not. I'm not sure I could name another quarterback in the NFL who could get punished on virtually every down in the first half, toss a back-breaking pick six and still have the mettle to pull off a 31-point rally in the biggest sporting event of the year. And whether you like the guy or [likely] not, it's impossible to refute his legacy and now nearly impossible to call anyone else the greatest football player of all time. But even No. 12 agrees that his oft-overlooked hybrid back James White was more instrumental in digging the Patriots out from six feet under. To wit, White set new Super Bowl records for receptions and points scored by a single player with three touchdowns and a two-point conversion. He outgained Julian Edelman and Julio Jones through the air, gave New England a more efficient spark on the ground when LeGarrette Blount couldn't get it going in the first half and ultimately played on over 70 of the Patriots' monstrous 93 snaps. That's an insane amount of impressive work for a guy who's often been third on New England's depth chart, and the Pats just wouldn't have been able to pull off the impossible without his super-clutch two-point conversion to help send it to overtime or that memorable fight at the goal line for the game winner.At Least We Can All Agree on Booing Rodger Goodell
If there's one other small consolation for anyone rooting for the Falcons/non-Patriots last night, you have to admit those chowderheads sure gave Goodell the demonic circle of boos he deserved when the dust settled. If you can, separate in your mind the fact that Pats fans were booing about getting caught cheating and having to deal with the [to be fair, completely ridiculous] consequences. This boo was also for all of us taxpayers having to shell out for those billionaire owners when they want the seats reupholstered and for the many players who've gotten tangled up in the Ginger Hammer's nonsensical kangaroo court where customized shoes and marijuana merit harsher penalties than [non-televised] domestic abuse. So if this was the Super Bowl of the kumbaya gospel, I guess I'll close by saying this boo was made for you and me.February 4, 2017
Playoff Picks: Super Bowl LI
You’ve probably had your
fill of “analysis” from me and others leading up to the big dance about
both of these teams in all phases of the game to this point. So without
further adieu, I give you five critical questions going into Super Bowl
Sunday and my prediction if you haven’t already skipped all of this and
scrolled down to the bottom of a page. And for more Super Bowl fun, be sure to check out my Super Bowl cheering guide, a.k.a. Reasons to Love and Hate the Falcons and Patriots.
On the other side of the ball, many analysts out there are pointing to New England's strong defensive performance this season as a decisive factor in how this game will play out. They'll almost certainly keep Julio Jones in double coverage all night and put their more rangy and athletic backs on other receiving options like Taylor Gabriel and Mohamed Sanu. The Pats will also likely focus their efforts on not keeping these speedy playmakers in front of them so as not togive up the big plays that have made Atlanta's offense so dangerous this season - they might cede a few 5 - 10 yard plays here and there if it means the Falcons are fighting for every third down and red zone opportunity to come away with a touchdown. So overall, I expect their style to be pretty similar to the Seahawks vs. the Broncos a few years back in playing a pretty straight style of defensive assignments and banking on strong, consistent tackling to limit how efficient the Falcons can be on a play-by-play basis. Neither of these offenses turn the ball over very often though, so that's a wild card factor that could muddle up this crystal ball at the end of the day.
From New England’s perspective, the tricky thing with the Falcons is that nearly all of their losses were winnable in the final minutes, and they’ve done some really solid work against great NFL defenses on the road like the Seahawks and Broncos that even this Pats defense has to be wary of. So going with the defensive principle of Question 1, I’d take a look at Atlanta’s turnover-shaded loss to the Chiefs in Week 13 and their sole dud against the Eagles in Week 10, who held this offense to just 15 points - a full eight points lower than their next lowest-scoring game. In the Chiefs game, Eric Berry put on a master class in sitting back on receiver routes and spying on Matt Ryan to know when to jump for two game changing picks. Kansas City also had big successes on offense around the edges with their screens and jet sweeps and throwing the ball near the sidelines to generate enough yards to keep this one close enough for Berry's game-sealing pick 2. You could definitely see the Patriots taking some similar advantages with Dion Lewis and James White in screen situations and this team's best sideline receiver in Julian Edelman. That Eagles game was a master class in what New England will try to do tomorrow - Philly harassed Ryan in the pocket all day with six QB hits and two sacks and also had a stellar performance in the secondary with five pass breakups and a pick late in the fourth quarter to lock up the win. These little things on every snap held the Falcons to a lot more punts and field goals than they're used to and ultimately made the point margin such that Atlanta couldn't fall back on its running game in the fourth quarter to protect a lead.
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The flipside of this isn't exactly true for Atlanta. They beat the Broncos defense soundly in Denver and went toe-to-toe with the Legion of Boom in Seattle in a game decided by a very questionable non-call for pass interference. They've also outdueled many a good offense in the Raiders, Packers, and Saints as well on the strength of their own consistent offensive production. If there's reason to worry for the Falcons, I'd say it's that their competition hasn't been all that formidable in the past six weeks either. Since losing to the Chiefs in Week 10, they've faced four awful defenses in the Rams, 49ers, Panthers and Saints before drawing the Earl Thomas-less and virtually offensive-line-less Seahawks in the divisional round and the Packers starting a myriad of undrafted young players in the secondary in the NFC Championship. They can't expect things to flow so easily against the Patriots in this one and will have to be patient with a balanced rushing attack and without a wide open Julio Jones on crucial downs. The other thing Atlanta should be very wary of is New England's effectiveness on the ground this season. Of the Falcons' opponents, only the Saints and Packers were top ten teams in rushing DVOA, and they faced too many big deficits against Atlanta to wield these strengths in a meaningful way. The Patriots, on the other hand, have the offensive chops to spread the ball around in the passing game while wearing down the Falcons' defensive line up the gut with LeGarrette Blount and then forcing those linebackers to run side to side to catch Dion Lewis and James White in screens and sweeps. It'll be a tall task for a somewhat undersized defensive line that has struggled against the run at times and hasn't had to face that many rushing plays given how often the Falcons' opponents have played from behind.
Q1: Are There Any Defensive Advantages?
I could drown you in 2,000 words of statistics about how great both of these teams’ offenses are, but you already know all of that. And anyway, they’ve both been incredibly good at the same things this season - spreading the ball around with deadly efficient quarterbacks who use every receiving option and area of the field, running the ball in between and outside of the tackles, protecting the pocket, and putting up Tecmo points against defenses good and bad. So one of these defenses will have to win enough matchups and make enough plays to come out just ahead when the dust settles. Against the Patriots, the Falcons will have to generate pressure--very preferably without blitzing Tom Brady--in order to be effective. The few teams that have fell New England in the playoffs had great interior rushers like Von Miller and Jason Pierre-Paul who could get to Brady and throw his rhythm off before his receivers had a chance to get open. Atlanta's Vic Beasley has the makings of a top-grade pass rusher, but going up against the Patriots' offensive line is a whole 'nother animal than that of the inexperienced Seahawks or the hobbled Packers. Plus, the Falcons have relied much more heavily on blitzing in the postseason than they did in their first 16 games, which has paid dividends so far, but presents risks here against a quarterback who gets the ball out of his hands faster than just about anyone. But hoping for a big game from Beasley and the rest of their linemen is the Falcons' best bet to limit the Patriots' running options and keep Atlanta's young secondary from getting exposed.On the other side of the ball, many analysts out there are pointing to New England's strong defensive performance this season as a decisive factor in how this game will play out. They'll almost certainly keep Julio Jones in double coverage all night and put their more rangy and athletic backs on other receiving options like Taylor Gabriel and Mohamed Sanu. The Pats will also likely focus their efforts on not keeping these speedy playmakers in front of them so as not togive up the big plays that have made Atlanta's offense so dangerous this season - they might cede a few 5 - 10 yard plays here and there if it means the Falcons are fighting for every third down and red zone opportunity to come away with a touchdown. So overall, I expect their style to be pretty similar to the Seahawks vs. the Broncos a few years back in playing a pretty straight style of defensive assignments and banking on strong, consistent tackling to limit how efficient the Falcons can be on a play-by-play basis. Neither of these offenses turn the ball over very often though, so that's a wild card factor that could muddle up this crystal ball at the end of the day.
Q2: What Game Film Are These Coaches Looking At?
In other words, with both the Falcons and Patriots playing peak football right now and having very few bad losses to show from earlier this season, where do they go to find any signs of weakness or advantage? From Atlanta’s perspective, I see only two tapes worth exploring: New England’s sole loss with Tom Brady at the helm versus the Seahawks in Week 10, and their surprisingly slow first half against the Texans in the divisional round. In the former, the Seahawks outmuscled the Patriots on both sides of the ball with solid, efficient rushing, keeping the Pats' underrated running game in check, and pulling off a series of impressive third-down, fourth-down and goal-line defensive stands that proved to be the difference in a one-possession game. They also managed to generate one of only two interceptions for Brady during the regular season and a fumble. Although the Texans never really had a chance of beating New England once the second half commenced, they had just the right mix of playmaking on their defensive line and some lucky bounces for deflected interceptions and a special teams fumble to keep things interesting in the first half. The Falcons front isn't likely to get to Brady as frequently as Jadeveon Clowney or Whitney Mercilus were, but they should get some ideas on the types of moves and stunts at the snap that could allow them to slip past a good offensive line - there are also some textbook examples here of sound fundamental tackling to keep the Pats' running game in check near the goal-line.From New England’s perspective, the tricky thing with the Falcons is that nearly all of their losses were winnable in the final minutes, and they’ve done some really solid work against great NFL defenses on the road like the Seahawks and Broncos that even this Pats defense has to be wary of. So going with the defensive principle of Question 1, I’d take a look at Atlanta’s turnover-shaded loss to the Chiefs in Week 13 and their sole dud against the Eagles in Week 10, who held this offense to just 15 points - a full eight points lower than their next lowest-scoring game. In the Chiefs game, Eric Berry put on a master class in sitting back on receiver routes and spying on Matt Ryan to know when to jump for two game changing picks. Kansas City also had big successes on offense around the edges with their screens and jet sweeps and throwing the ball near the sidelines to generate enough yards to keep this one close enough for Berry's game-sealing pick 2. You could definitely see the Patriots taking some similar advantages with Dion Lewis and James White in screen situations and this team's best sideline receiver in Julian Edelman. That Eagles game was a master class in what New England will try to do tomorrow - Philly harassed Ryan in the pocket all day with six QB hits and two sacks and also had a stellar performance in the secondary with five pass breakups and a pick late in the fourth quarter to lock up the win. These little things on every snap held the Falcons to a lot more punts and field goals than they're used to and ultimately made the point margin such that Atlanta couldn't fall back on its running game in the fourth quarter to protect a lead.
Q3: What Is Each Team's Uncharted Territory?
I was inspired to examine this question after last year’s Super Bowl stunner in which the explosive Panthers offense was absolutely demolished by a historically good Broncos defense. You might recall that Carolina was an unstoppable offensive juggernaut for most of the season, and they looked ready to outduel the corpse of Peyton Manning by a large margin in February. But people like me failed to factor in the fact that the Panthers played very few good defenses all season long and that the Broncos would be in a whole 'nother stratosphere - Lord knows the NFC South is no murderers' row of shutdown defensive prowess. So what do we know about what we don't know going into tomorrow's game? I'll start with the Patriots since I've mentioned this many times over in my playoff previews - as good as New England's defense has been to this point, they simply haven't faced an offense anywhere near as prolific as the Falcons'. During the regular season, they played only three teams in the top half for offensive DVOA, and two of those were manned by backup quarterbacks in Landry Jones and Matt Moore. The Pats then drew the Texans in the divisional round with a bottom feeder under center named Brock Osweiler and the Steelers in the AFC Championship in which Pittsburgh lost its most important playmaker in Le'Veon Bell early, allowing the Pats to close in on Ben Roethlisberger and shut down Antonio Brown in a contest that was never close. There's no doubt New England has done everything it possibly could on defense to shut down its opponents this season, but that only tells you so much about how this team will handle a fairly healthy, incredibly well-rounded and fast Falcons offense.The flipside of this isn't exactly true for Atlanta. They beat the Broncos defense soundly in Denver and went toe-to-toe with the Legion of Boom in Seattle in a game decided by a very questionable non-call for pass interference. They've also outdueled many a good offense in the Raiders, Packers, and Saints as well on the strength of their own consistent offensive production. If there's reason to worry for the Falcons, I'd say it's that their competition hasn't been all that formidable in the past six weeks either. Since losing to the Chiefs in Week 10, they've faced four awful defenses in the Rams, 49ers, Panthers and Saints before drawing the Earl Thomas-less and virtually offensive-line-less Seahawks in the divisional round and the Packers starting a myriad of undrafted young players in the secondary in the NFC Championship. They can't expect things to flow so easily against the Patriots in this one and will have to be patient with a balanced rushing attack and without a wide open Julio Jones on crucial downs. The other thing Atlanta should be very wary of is New England's effectiveness on the ground this season. Of the Falcons' opponents, only the Saints and Packers were top ten teams in rushing DVOA, and they faced too many big deficits against Atlanta to wield these strengths in a meaningful way. The Patriots, on the other hand, have the offensive chops to spread the ball around in the passing game while wearing down the Falcons' defensive line up the gut with LeGarrette Blount and then forcing those linebackers to run side to side to catch Dion Lewis and James White in screens and sweeps. It'll be a tall task for a somewhat undersized defensive line that has struggled against the run at times and hasn't had to face that many rushing plays given how often the Falcons' opponents have played from behind.
Q4: What About the Intangibles?
Indeed, what’s in that grab bag of hot streaks, quality wins vs. ugly losses and any kind of human interest stories that I can use to be an armchair psychologist here? Well, for one, these teams could not contrast more in terms of playoff and Super Bowl experience. You already know Brady and Belichick have taken the Patriots to the 'ship seven times and come away with four rings. Most of their key players from their last win in 2015 will be playing in this one too save for Rob Gronkowski, though his health has always been a bellwether of how this team has fared in the playoffs historically. Although Dan Quinn has been to the big one before as a defensive coordinator for the Seahawks, he's taking just one player (I think) who's been there before in Dwight Freeney. Before this season, Matt Ryan was just 1 - 4 in the postseason, so there's always a pat case to be made that the bright lights and potential adversity the Patriots' defense will throw his way will be too much to pitch a perfect game, which might be necessary the way the Pats offense matches up. On the other hand, the Falcons are coming off of an absolutely dominant playoff run in which they sent the Georgia Dome out in style in the NFC Championship and summoned the mighty rooting power of Ludacris and Jeezy to propel them into relevance. 98% of America will be rooting for Atlanta to smite the unpalatable Patriots. And in terms of special teams, New England will likely continue to rule the day in field position, but Matt Bryant has been a much, much more clutch kicker this season than the suddenly wobbly Steven Gostkowski. So let my disjointed writing here suggest that other than playoff experience, there aren't many clear winners in intangibles here.Q5: What’s Your Dumb Prediction Already?
All of those smartsy pundits and the annual Madden simulation point to a Patriots win on the strength of their defense and their ability to exploit that of the Falcons. As a Saints fan, I sure hope this is true. But I just haven't been able to shake the difference in these two teams' resumes in the regular season and playoffs. The Falcons have done a whole lot of impressive things against some very good opponents with top-notch defenses and offenses, and if they play anything like they did throughout January, I just have a sinking feeling that they could edge this one out in a shootout. On the plus side, if I'm wrong, I will delight in the jinx I've created for a rival team I hate so much, I am more than willing to cheer for the Patriots again. Falcons 27, Patriots 24 MVP: Matt RyanFebruary 2, 2017
Who Should I Cheer for in the Super Bowl? Reasons to Love and Hate the Falcons and Patriots
We’re
less than a week away from Super Bowl LI and have a decent matchup on our hands between two teams that have enough offense to give us a close playoff game for a change. Falcons and Patriots fans have plenty to be excited
about, but for that other 94%-ish of fans who’ve watched their own
teams go down
in predictable or agonizing fashion this year, you’re
probably still on the fence about who to adopt until September finally
rolls around. Fear not, dear reader! Here’s the fair and
balanced Lady Blitz guide for you to weigh your options with Reasons to
Love and Hate the Falcons and Patriots:
Reasons to Love the Falcons
They're Not the Patriots - Let’s start with the obvious reason why most of the country [I think] will be cheering for Atlanta on Super Bowl Sunday: they aren’t the Patriots. Whereas the Pats will be making their NFL-best ninth Super Bowl appearance and vying for a fifth Lombardi, this will be the Falcons' second attempt to go after their first trophy. And Atlanta's simply not well-known or persistently successful enough to draw much ire outside of the greater New Orleans area. (To wit, I can't promise not to be underhanded on most of these finer points). Like the Panthers last year, they're a fun, young and talented squad going up against an AFC super power on the strength of their quarterback's MVP play this season. Coach Dan Quinn is the goofy high school wrestling coach to Belichick's Emperor Palpatine and Matt Ryan is some guy to Brady's head-butting, Ugg-wearing toolbag. They haven't inundated the news with ridiculously drawn out drama over filming other teams' practices or deflating footballs. And lame as they may be at times (more on that later), Falcons fans are surely more tolerable when it comes to measures of self-righteousness and entitlement compared to Patriots fans - they're just happy to be here and basking in a larger Atlanta renaissance that has given this town a lot to root for recently. No doubt these are the kind of clean cut Mighty Ducks/Karate Kid underdogs worth cheering for if you just can't stand the thought of another New England title and all the smug chowderheads that come with it.
That Offense Is a Well-Oiled Killing Machine - Just a year after Falcons fans were calling for offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan's head on a platter, he's developed one of the very best offenses in modern memory - undoubtedly the foremost reason that Atlanta is headed to Super Bowl LI. The Falcons scored as many points in the regular season as the 2000 St. Louis Rams' Greatest Show on Turf, and presumptive MVP Matt Ryan has had one of the best season-long quarterback performances of the modern era. Through Week 17, he had the fifth highest QB rating of all time and the most passing yards per attempt ever - and these past two playoff games against the usually formidable Seahawks and Packers proved to be just another playground for Ryan and a well-rounded cast of playmakers to romp around in until February rolled around. Having All Pro Julio Jones around doesn't hurt, but Ryan's also getting a ton of mileage out of his whole rolodex of receivers including Mohamed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel, Austin Hooper and the Falcons' one-two RB punch of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Having this many versatile options has allowed Shanahan to disguise a ton of different play calls under the same formations to confuse opposing defenses and ensure Ryan will have his share of mismatches to exploit. Add to this the fact that the Falcons are the only team in the league this year to have the same guys start on the offensive line every game and anchored by future hall-of-famer Alex Mack, and there's almost no way to beat this team on defense. So Patriots, beware of this guy:
Reasons to Hate the Falcons
The Rising Up of the Lamest Fans - Okay, Samuel L. Jackson can stay, but there are tons of fair-weather Johnny-Come-Lately Falcons fans out there who deserve to be shamed for how non-committal they’ve been over these past few years to this team. Even now, let’s be real - there's a notable subgroup of Falcons fans who would trade this Super Bowl appearance in a heartbeat if it meant Georgia would make it to the College Football Playoffs for once. It's not just that they had to give up cash and draft picks for pumping in fake crowd noise during their less than enthusiastic/occupied home games in 2013 and 2014 (though it's ridiculous that any NFL team would have to do this just one year removed from an NFC Championship appearance and three straight playoff bids). It's that the Falcons had fewer bets to go to the Super Bowl this year than the Cleveland Freaking Browns. And that the fine people of Atlanta most recently tried to dig a Yelp-rating-laden grave for one of their own locally owned restaurants because it had the audacity to host an event for visiting [and paying] Packers fans. Insecure much over this team you just remembered existed in October? Even if this team finally gets that Lombardi on Sunday, don't think for a second there's some critical mass of long-suffering but faithful Falcons fans who will weep tears of joy so much as casually call in sick Monday and put a decal on their laptop until Atlanta sucks again in a couple years. But seriously, Samuel L. Jackson can stay - he's the Buddha of those few truly loyal, agonizingly patient Falcons fans.
The Falcons Are the "Her?" of the NFL - For those of you who are Arrested Development fans (and I assume there’s some decent Venn Diagram overlap on this blog), I can't help but think "Her?" when I think about Atlanta being relevant. In trying to be fair, I have to say this version of the winning Falcons is way more palatable than the Mike Smith version that used to be the most boringly efficient team in the regular season that would proceed to blow your mind with the most conservative try-not-to-lose play-calling imaginable in the playoffs. But there's a reason that, despite all of the explosive playmaking, these guys haven't had a single weekend game in prime time this entire season or postseason. You just kind of forget they're a thing because they dwell in the very meh NFC South with a surprisingly small market of unremarkable fans and a quarterback who couldn't be more of a saltine Opie if he tried. Even pitting them against a Patriots team that everyone loves to hate, there seems to be almost no public fanfare surrounding this team's success even compared to last year's Panthers team that followed a very similar trajectory. Nationally, I bet there are more people who'd want to watch the Jaguars make the Super Bowl than the Falcons, if only because it'd be like watching a dog walk on its hind legs while wearing a monocle.
Reasons to Love the Patriots
We'll Probably Never See NFL Dominance Like This Again... If Brady and Belichick Ever Retire - As much moaning as I do (and am about to do again) about how boring it is to see the Patriots in yet another Super Bowl, their dominance is still something to marvel that some won’t fully appreciate until 20 years from now. I like to think of the analogous situation with UConn’s women’s basketball team, currently in the middle of the longest-ever win streak in NCAA history. When Coach Gene Auriemma has been asked if this kind of lop-sided dominance ruins the sport, he's said something to the effect that it's not UConn's responsibility to make the competition better - it's everyone else's. Since their first Super Bowl win in 2002, the Patriots have cycled through every position on their roster except quarterback, and they've gone through court battles and lost draft picks along the way and faced a number of AFC challengers that looked like they could topple this dynasty at times. At yet, here the Patriots are again for the ninth time - the seventh with these two constants who just can't seem to lose their joint flexibility or hang it up for the kids or have an Earth-shattering epiphany in Nepal that would send them into lifelong monkhood far, far away from the NFL so that other teams can live. Nope, we're still stuck with the Patriots in February because more times than not, everybody else just isn't good enough. Dammit.
They Might Just Crack the Falcons' Offensive Code - We have been blessed with a number of extraordinary defensive performances against mighty offensive opponents in the Super Bowl in these past two decades. There were those Orange Crush Broncos of just a year ago pulling off a massive but easy upset against the Panthers despite having a quarterback in the early stages of rigor mortis. And the Seahawks outright embarrassing those same Broncos when their quarterback was alive and well in 2014. Heck, there was Michael Strahan & co. crashing the Patriots' 18 - 0 coronation too, but the first in this lineage was New England versus the Greatest Show on Turf in 2002. There are few things more terrifying than a Bill Belichick-coached defense with two weeks to prepare, and they'll need another mastermind effort from Belichick and DC Matt Patricia to keep the Falcons offense from running away on that fast indoor turf. You can be sure Julio Jones will be bracketed and Malcolm Butler will probably end up blanketing WR #2 Mohamed Sanu, but you can also bet there will be some evil genius-level trickery going on to try to confuse Matt Ryan on the coverage and ensure the Pats' versatile defenders can make plays from several angles. And if you're going to the party to watch a chess match (who isn't? Lady Gaga people?), you're going to get it when Belichick and Shanahan square off on Falcons possessions.
A Pats Win Is a Middle Finger to Roger Goodell - Since we [theoretically] live in anti-establishment times, there’s definitely one good reason for you to cheer for the Patriots this year even if you’d normally never do such a thing. Should they win, we’ll get to watch Roger Goodell stand next to Tom Brady for the first time since Deflategate met its merciful conclusion and pretend like everything’s chill with a stadium full of indignant Patriots fans jeering him on. I don't think anyone would accuse me of mincing words in saying that Goodell is as authoritarian yet spineless as it gets in the world of sportsball, and the fact that he hasn't gone to Foxborough once in the past two years is just the latest testament to that. So as bitter a pill as another Pats win would be for most of you, just try to imagine that bulging vein in Goodell's temple, the flop sweat, the "Where is Rawgah?" chants, the awkward gritted smile and all the underhanded comments these players will be doing their best to sit on until the champagne carts roll out in the locker room that could result. Sadly, the Ginger Badger doesn't work for you and me so he's not going anywhere anytime soon despite mismanaging just about everything in his power but the ad revenue, but we can always delight in the little things that will forever make him a sad and lonely man despite that $30M "non-profit" salary.
Reasons to Hate the Patriots
C'Mon - All the same things I said two years ago still apply - it’s boring to watch the same team win over and over, their fans are among the most smug while also having a truly incredulous persecution complex, and Tom Brady is basically a more athletic Zoolander villain. Heck, I even hate having to come up with anything remotely resembling new material for this team in this Super Bowl preview because it pushes just about anyone into the no man's land of hack writing. I'm not above hack writing, obviously. But I do know the limits of my abilities and your patience, so let's just agree that we all have a strong working knowledge of why to hate the Patriots and that it's completely justified no matter what those chowderheads say.
This Team's Ceiling Is Still Unclear - This is mostly an X's and O's critique coming from a Saints fan anxiously hoping the Patriots will embarrass the Dirty Birds in front of all of America. But I'm still more than a little skeptical this team is truly coming in with the upper hand. It's actually the same kind of wariness I've felt about the Falcons in previous years - that they were solid teams but also beneficiaries of easy schedules that made them look more invincible than they really were when tougher playoff opponents came to the fore. The Patriots played just five teams with a winning record during the regular season, and some of those defensive stats that seem very impressive on paper were borne from the blood of guys like Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jared Goff, Matt Moore and Brock Osweiler. Even New England's presumably best opponent so far, the Steelers, lost Le'Veon Bell early on in the AFC Championship, and with Ben Roethlisberger being abysmal on the road all season, it's a stretch to say the Patriots have actually faced a quality opponent since the Seahawks in Week 10. The Patriots can only play the hand they've been dealt here, and that hand has treated them very well, but we just won't know how legitimately good this year's version is until they go toe to toe with a never-hotter Falcons team on Sunday.
Now that you've got your rooting interest settled for Sunday, come back here in the next day or two to see my never-fail Super Bowl prediction!
January 21, 2017
Playoff Picks: NFL Championship Weekend
When the dust settles tomorrow, we'll know our 2017 Super Bowl contenders as well as who else is going to turn down a meaningless Pro Bowl invite due to unforeseen injury. I gotta say, I'm none too thrilled about the prospect of any of these teams making it to February - three of them have won at least two Lombardis in my lifetime, and well, the other is the Falcons. Seriously, anyone but the Falcons. So I will begrudgingly make my picks now and try to work up some excitement by the time you hear back from me.
The Case for the Packers: Aaron Rodgers is quite simply on a mission from God, and despite the misgivings you might have about Green Bay's overall balance on defense and in the backfield, this guy just continues to make ridiculous plays that can't be stopped by physics or defensive backs. Sure, Matt Ryan is playing just as good or better right now in every major passing category, but after watching Rodgers call his own run-the-table shot with eight straight wins, hit yet another Hail Mary, scramble his way out of an all-but-assured sack, hold onto the ball when literally anyone else would have fumbled, and nail a cross-the-body sideline throw to get in field goal range with seconds to spare, there's a certain feeling that physics, space and time cannot stop this man from crushing the dreams of all who stand in his path including an incredibly hot Falcons offense. The Packers don't have a lot of on-paper advantages over the Falcons, but they've got intangibles in spades with this late-season momentum, lots of postseason experience and all the confidence in the world going into a tough NFC Championship. Even if they trail through earlier parts of the game, it's almost impossible to imagine Green Bay not being in it right up to the end in this one, and 30 seconds is just about all Rodgers needs to pull off another miracle.
The Case Against the Packers: Welp, I hope you're washing your hands, America, because that dreaded stomach bug has already caught up with the Packers (and Steelers) this week. For every Michael Jordan flu game (there's literally just one), there are tens of thousands of games where seemingly passing illness and injury can take their toll on the greats. Lest we forget, three Packers wide receivers (Nelson, Adams and Allison) are dealing with injuries that could keep them sidelined or at less than full speed to take some pressure off of their QB. But there are certainly other more long-standing concerns to have about Green Bay too. For one, they've needed miracle play after miracle play from Rodgers (and a couple 50+ yard field goals) to stay on this winning streak because they simply can't rely on their defense to give them a comfortable margin or on their thin, spotty running game to keep defenders from checking into coverage or running the clock down with a lead. These are some ample reasons that the Cowboys were able to roar back from a 15-point deficit in the fourth quarter last week and very nearly pulled off the latest in a long series of disappointing playoff losses for the Packers. Based on some of Mike McCarthy's play-calling this past weekend, he still hasn't learned his lesson about when to be aggressive and how to preserve a lead when the getting's good. Most concerning for Green Bay though is how banged up their secondary is, considering they're up against the #1 offense in the league. It's possible that their two best available playmakers in Quinten Rollins and Morgan Burnett will be out or limited, opening up even more passing options for Ryan and a second level of rushing lanes for the one-two punch of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. In other words, Rodgers is going to have to pitch a perfect game to have a shot in this one.
The Case for the Falcons: When your quarterback is the presumptive league MVP, there's always going to be reason for optimism heading into the playoffs, especially when you're facing a guaranteed hall of famer on the other side of the ball. But I think Atlanta fans have to be especially heartened by how well the Falcons played in the divisional round after years of promising regular seasons that ended when Matt Ryan & co. would inevitably fall of a cliff in January. Moreover, the Falcons aren't nearly as reliant on their quarterback to do it all as they've been in years past--or as Green Bay will be tomorrow. They've had one of the best, healthiest offensive lines in the NFL this season and a myriad of weapons from unlikely places be it the speedy, cutting Browns castoff WR Taylor Gabriel, the two-headed monster of Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman who can beat defenses on the ground or on screens, or Julio Jones peaking at the right time against a likely limited Packers secondary. Atlanta's offense is why they're here, but they've also started to get some much-needed help on defense that could come in handy with a few extra possessions on Sunday. In the latter part of the season, they've been on a roll in forcing turnovers and finding their pass rushing prowess anchored by bust-no-more Vic Beasley. The Falcons' defense may not be a world-beating unit on its own at this point, but this balanced cast of characters could go a long way to get the edge against a Packers team with a lot of momentum.
The Case Against the Falcons: You can certainly make this argument for Green Bay too, but with the Falcons making so many dramatic improvements to their offensive efficiency this season, you have to wonder if what goes up will eventually come down on this team a la the 15 - 1 Panthers in last year's Super Bowl. Atlanta simply hasn't trailed opponents much at all this season, so there's always the chance that the Packers walk in with the hot hand, generate an opportune turnover early in the game, and build a two-possession lead or so that could bait Ryan into some of his bad habits of old. Plus, OC mastermind Kyle Shanahan has one foot out the door with his likely first head coaching gig just around the corner in San Francisco, so there's always the possibility that the team won't be quite as focused with an awkward management situation in play. But the most likely scenario, should the Falcons lose, will be if Green Bay's offense plays even better. Atlanta has been able to mask some of its defensive challenges by creating a lot more turnovers in the second half of the season, and the Packers are generally pretty great at protecting the football. If Rodgers gets the ball last in a tight game, it'll be hard to imagine just about anyone including the Falcons standing in his way.
Prediction: Make no mistake, this Saints fan is going to be the biggest Packers fan you've ever seen tomorrow afternoon, but the Falcons just have so many more ways to win than Green Bay does in this one. With Matt Ryan playing just as well as Aaron Rodgers, the Packers will lose the one assured advantage they've had in every other game during their "run the table" streak this week. Somebody ought to tell these guys. Falcons 41, Packers 31
The Case for the Steelers: There's a viable argument to be made that the Steelers offense is even more versatile and balanced than that of the Falcons given the best-in-class performances of Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell. Bell in particular has been confounding every defensive line he's faced for the past eight weeks with his game-changing style of patience and vision for huge gains and consistent first down yardage. Given that the Patriots haven't been tested much by great offenses this season (more on that later), we don't yet know what the Steelers' ceiling might be in the usually tough confines of Gillette Stadium, but they've got the talent to beat many a good defense in multiple ways that should come in handy against Bill Belichick's scheming. Recently, there's also been more reason to be optimistic about Pittsburgh's defense too. With the ageless (and curiously ripped 38-year-old) James Harrison and versatile Bud Dupree ruling the edges at the line of scrimmage and the Steelers' more aggressive blitzing schemes in tow, they might just take a page from the Texans last week and find ways to generate consistent pressure against Tom Brady. This is certainly a different team than the Landry Jones-led dud that struggled against the Patriots in October, and with Bell and this defense clicking at the right time, they might have just enough big plays up their sleeve to steal one unlike everyone else in a weak AFC playoff class.
The Case Against the Steelers: Although Pittsburgh's offense has a higher ceiling than most, they aren't as consistently explosive as some of their previous versions other than Le'Veon Bell. Ben Roethlisberger in particular has been a rollercoaster that tends to plummet at a 70 degree angle on the road. His passer rating has been 116.7 at Heinz Field and 78.4 everywhere else this season, and you could see some cracks around the edges in that 0 TD, 1 INT performance in which the Steelers didn't make it into the end zone once at Arrowhead last weekend. So there's reason to be nervous facing off against a Belichick-coached defense in Massachusetts if Todd Haley doesn't figure out how to mix things up and get Roethlisberger to spread the ball to more than just the likely double-covered Brown and Bell this time. The other possible Achilles heel for the Steelers is their inexperienced secondary featuring three rookies. They survived against Kansas City last week, but you'd expect Tom Brady to go after them with a lot of no-huddle and quick reads with his ever-replenishing roster of capable receivers if the Steelers can't keep up their recent pass rushing success. Like the Patriots, Pittsburgh hasn't exactly faced a slate of world-beating offenses since their last loss to the Cowboys, so it's hard to gauge whether their defensive improvement is for real or a function of getting to play the rest of the faltering AFC North and a few backup QBs.
The Case for the Patriots: Welp, considering that the Patriots had the best record in the NFL this season despite missing Tom Brady for four games and that they'll be making their insane sixth-straight AFC Championship, their chances are pretty much always good. Despite losing Rob Gronkowski ages ago and sitting out for a month, Brady has put together another MVP-caliber season of his own and could have his way against that young Steelers secondary if he gets a clean pocket. But like the Steelers, a lot of the Patriots' offensive success this season has been rooted in a balanced running game with human wrecking ball LaGarrette Blount to muscle his way up the middle and a now-healthy Dion Lewis to round things out on the edges and in screen situations. They've got a lot more ways to keep the chains moving and avoid turnovers than in other recent versions. On paper, New England also has quite the upper hand defensively - they're first in points allowed, third in rushing yards allowed and third in turnover differential, giving this team far more chances to build and keep a lead than most, as usual.
The Case Against the Patriots: I'm probably going to use this same logic in my Super Bowl preview even if the Patriots beat the Steelers given how bad Big Ben can be on the road these days. So if you're looking for potential flaws in a league-best 14 - 2 team with the top defense in NFL in terms of points allowed, consider the quarterbacks the Patriots have faced since their last loss to the Seahawks at home: Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Fitzpatrick (twice), Jared Goff, Trevor Siemian, Matt Moore and Brock Osweiler. In fact, New England didn't face a single quarterback in the top 10 for passer rating all season, and Ben Roethlisberger is 11th, so this will certainly be their toughest offensive opponent since they traded away some great playmakers in Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins. That could have a ripple effect on the other things the Patriots have done so well this season like dictate starting field position for both sides of the ball and control the run game against teams that are usually starting behind and can't maintain balance. At its worst, this situation could be like the recent NCAA championship between Alabama and Clemson - it was impossible to find fault in the Tide's performance up to that point against lesser competition, but once they were faced with a potent offense that could dial up big plays and run up the snap count, they were unable to adapt to a test they just hadn't faced. The possibility of a Pats loss still feels like a long shot, but there are just enough unknowns to keep this one interesting until kick off.
Prediction: I fully expect that the Patriots will win this game and that I'll be one of the few people outside of New England cheering for them should they wind up playing the Falcons in a blah Super Bowl. (For my money, Pats-Packers would be the best option). But on the chance the Steelers string together just enough scoring drives to pull off the upset against a Pats team that just hasn't been tested much at all this season, I'm taking my chances. Steelers 27, Patriots 24
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-5.5)
The Run-Down: In terms of quarterback matchups, it just doesn't get much better than the top two MVP candidates licking their chops against some fairly bad defenses on Sunday afternoon. With the over/under at a record-breaking 61 points, this could well come down to who has the ball last in a game built to be an insanely fun shootout.The Case for the Packers: Aaron Rodgers is quite simply on a mission from God, and despite the misgivings you might have about Green Bay's overall balance on defense and in the backfield, this guy just continues to make ridiculous plays that can't be stopped by physics or defensive backs. Sure, Matt Ryan is playing just as good or better right now in every major passing category, but after watching Rodgers call his own run-the-table shot with eight straight wins, hit yet another Hail Mary, scramble his way out of an all-but-assured sack, hold onto the ball when literally anyone else would have fumbled, and nail a cross-the-body sideline throw to get in field goal range with seconds to spare, there's a certain feeling that physics, space and time cannot stop this man from crushing the dreams of all who stand in his path including an incredibly hot Falcons offense. The Packers don't have a lot of on-paper advantages over the Falcons, but they've got intangibles in spades with this late-season momentum, lots of postseason experience and all the confidence in the world going into a tough NFC Championship. Even if they trail through earlier parts of the game, it's almost impossible to imagine Green Bay not being in it right up to the end in this one, and 30 seconds is just about all Rodgers needs to pull off another miracle.
The Case Against the Packers: Welp, I hope you're washing your hands, America, because that dreaded stomach bug has already caught up with the Packers (and Steelers) this week. For every Michael Jordan flu game (there's literally just one), there are tens of thousands of games where seemingly passing illness and injury can take their toll on the greats. Lest we forget, three Packers wide receivers (Nelson, Adams and Allison) are dealing with injuries that could keep them sidelined or at less than full speed to take some pressure off of their QB. But there are certainly other more long-standing concerns to have about Green Bay too. For one, they've needed miracle play after miracle play from Rodgers (and a couple 50+ yard field goals) to stay on this winning streak because they simply can't rely on their defense to give them a comfortable margin or on their thin, spotty running game to keep defenders from checking into coverage or running the clock down with a lead. These are some ample reasons that the Cowboys were able to roar back from a 15-point deficit in the fourth quarter last week and very nearly pulled off the latest in a long series of disappointing playoff losses for the Packers. Based on some of Mike McCarthy's play-calling this past weekend, he still hasn't learned his lesson about when to be aggressive and how to preserve a lead when the getting's good. Most concerning for Green Bay though is how banged up their secondary is, considering they're up against the #1 offense in the league. It's possible that their two best available playmakers in Quinten Rollins and Morgan Burnett will be out or limited, opening up even more passing options for Ryan and a second level of rushing lanes for the one-two punch of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. In other words, Rodgers is going to have to pitch a perfect game to have a shot in this one.
The Case for the Falcons: When your quarterback is the presumptive league MVP, there's always going to be reason for optimism heading into the playoffs, especially when you're facing a guaranteed hall of famer on the other side of the ball. But I think Atlanta fans have to be especially heartened by how well the Falcons played in the divisional round after years of promising regular seasons that ended when Matt Ryan & co. would inevitably fall of a cliff in January. Moreover, the Falcons aren't nearly as reliant on their quarterback to do it all as they've been in years past--or as Green Bay will be tomorrow. They've had one of the best, healthiest offensive lines in the NFL this season and a myriad of weapons from unlikely places be it the speedy, cutting Browns castoff WR Taylor Gabriel, the two-headed monster of Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman who can beat defenses on the ground or on screens, or Julio Jones peaking at the right time against a likely limited Packers secondary. Atlanta's offense is why they're here, but they've also started to get some much-needed help on defense that could come in handy with a few extra possessions on Sunday. In the latter part of the season, they've been on a roll in forcing turnovers and finding their pass rushing prowess anchored by bust-no-more Vic Beasley. The Falcons' defense may not be a world-beating unit on its own at this point, but this balanced cast of characters could go a long way to get the edge against a Packers team with a lot of momentum.
The Case Against the Falcons: You can certainly make this argument for Green Bay too, but with the Falcons making so many dramatic improvements to their offensive efficiency this season, you have to wonder if what goes up will eventually come down on this team a la the 15 - 1 Panthers in last year's Super Bowl. Atlanta simply hasn't trailed opponents much at all this season, so there's always the chance that the Packers walk in with the hot hand, generate an opportune turnover early in the game, and build a two-possession lead or so that could bait Ryan into some of his bad habits of old. Plus, OC mastermind Kyle Shanahan has one foot out the door with his likely first head coaching gig just around the corner in San Francisco, so there's always the possibility that the team won't be quite as focused with an awkward management situation in play. But the most likely scenario, should the Falcons lose, will be if Green Bay's offense plays even better. Atlanta has been able to mask some of its defensive challenges by creating a lot more turnovers in the second half of the season, and the Packers are generally pretty great at protecting the football. If Rodgers gets the ball last in a tight game, it'll be hard to imagine just about anyone including the Falcons standing in his way.
Prediction: Make no mistake, this Saints fan is going to be the biggest Packers fan you've ever seen tomorrow afternoon, but the Falcons just have so many more ways to win than Green Bay does in this one. With Matt Ryan playing just as well as Aaron Rodgers, the Packers will lose the one assured advantage they've had in every other game during their "run the table" streak this week. Somebody ought to tell these guys. Falcons 41, Packers 31
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-6)
The Run-Down: Sure, this game is getting pitched as the second of two great quarterback duels on Sunday, but that would be underselling how integral these two rushing attacks have been to their teams' success this season. Expect a little ground-and-pound, a few beautiful deep balls, and some defensive lines with their work cut out for them.The Case for the Steelers: There's a viable argument to be made that the Steelers offense is even more versatile and balanced than that of the Falcons given the best-in-class performances of Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell. Bell in particular has been confounding every defensive line he's faced for the past eight weeks with his game-changing style of patience and vision for huge gains and consistent first down yardage. Given that the Patriots haven't been tested much by great offenses this season (more on that later), we don't yet know what the Steelers' ceiling might be in the usually tough confines of Gillette Stadium, but they've got the talent to beat many a good defense in multiple ways that should come in handy against Bill Belichick's scheming. Recently, there's also been more reason to be optimistic about Pittsburgh's defense too. With the ageless (and curiously ripped 38-year-old) James Harrison and versatile Bud Dupree ruling the edges at the line of scrimmage and the Steelers' more aggressive blitzing schemes in tow, they might just take a page from the Texans last week and find ways to generate consistent pressure against Tom Brady. This is certainly a different team than the Landry Jones-led dud that struggled against the Patriots in October, and with Bell and this defense clicking at the right time, they might have just enough big plays up their sleeve to steal one unlike everyone else in a weak AFC playoff class.
The Case Against the Steelers: Although Pittsburgh's offense has a higher ceiling than most, they aren't as consistently explosive as some of their previous versions other than Le'Veon Bell. Ben Roethlisberger in particular has been a rollercoaster that tends to plummet at a 70 degree angle on the road. His passer rating has been 116.7 at Heinz Field and 78.4 everywhere else this season, and you could see some cracks around the edges in that 0 TD, 1 INT performance in which the Steelers didn't make it into the end zone once at Arrowhead last weekend. So there's reason to be nervous facing off against a Belichick-coached defense in Massachusetts if Todd Haley doesn't figure out how to mix things up and get Roethlisberger to spread the ball to more than just the likely double-covered Brown and Bell this time. The other possible Achilles heel for the Steelers is their inexperienced secondary featuring three rookies. They survived against Kansas City last week, but you'd expect Tom Brady to go after them with a lot of no-huddle and quick reads with his ever-replenishing roster of capable receivers if the Steelers can't keep up their recent pass rushing success. Like the Patriots, Pittsburgh hasn't exactly faced a slate of world-beating offenses since their last loss to the Cowboys, so it's hard to gauge whether their defensive improvement is for real or a function of getting to play the rest of the faltering AFC North and a few backup QBs.
The Case for the Patriots: Welp, considering that the Patriots had the best record in the NFL this season despite missing Tom Brady for four games and that they'll be making their insane sixth-straight AFC Championship, their chances are pretty much always good. Despite losing Rob Gronkowski ages ago and sitting out for a month, Brady has put together another MVP-caliber season of his own and could have his way against that young Steelers secondary if he gets a clean pocket. But like the Steelers, a lot of the Patriots' offensive success this season has been rooted in a balanced running game with human wrecking ball LaGarrette Blount to muscle his way up the middle and a now-healthy Dion Lewis to round things out on the edges and in screen situations. They've got a lot more ways to keep the chains moving and avoid turnovers than in other recent versions. On paper, New England also has quite the upper hand defensively - they're first in points allowed, third in rushing yards allowed and third in turnover differential, giving this team far more chances to build and keep a lead than most, as usual.
The Case Against the Patriots: I'm probably going to use this same logic in my Super Bowl preview even if the Patriots beat the Steelers given how bad Big Ben can be on the road these days. So if you're looking for potential flaws in a league-best 14 - 2 team with the top defense in NFL in terms of points allowed, consider the quarterbacks the Patriots have faced since their last loss to the Seahawks at home: Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Fitzpatrick (twice), Jared Goff, Trevor Siemian, Matt Moore and Brock Osweiler. In fact, New England didn't face a single quarterback in the top 10 for passer rating all season, and Ben Roethlisberger is 11th, so this will certainly be their toughest offensive opponent since they traded away some great playmakers in Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins. That could have a ripple effect on the other things the Patriots have done so well this season like dictate starting field position for both sides of the ball and control the run game against teams that are usually starting behind and can't maintain balance. At its worst, this situation could be like the recent NCAA championship between Alabama and Clemson - it was impossible to find fault in the Tide's performance up to that point against lesser competition, but once they were faced with a potent offense that could dial up big plays and run up the snap count, they were unable to adapt to a test they just hadn't faced. The possibility of a Pats loss still feels like a long shot, but there are just enough unknowns to keep this one interesting until kick off.
Prediction: I fully expect that the Patriots will win this game and that I'll be one of the few people outside of New England cheering for them should they wind up playing the Falcons in a blah Super Bowl. (For my money, Pats-Packers would be the best option). But on the chance the Steelers string together just enough scoring drives to pull off the upset against a Pats team that just hasn't been tested much at all this season, I'm taking my chances. Steelers 27, Patriots 24
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