December 30, 2017

Who Should I Cheer for in the College Football Playoffs? Finding an NFL Spirit Animal for Each Team

Hey y'all - it's been a minute, hasn't it?  I took this NFL season off from blogging, mainly because it has gotten harder to carve out the time to write regularly (and well) with other good stuff going on in my life.  No regrets, but I've got the itch to write about playoffs - college and pro - so let this be the first of a smattering of new posts as we gear up for 2018!  Now onto one of my favorite annual features: a preview for each of the four College Football Playoff contenders.  So who should you cheer for if you're glued to the couch on Sundays instead of Saturdays?  I've prepared a scientifically airtight translation guide to help.  Meet the 2018 final four and their NFL spirit animals!


4) Alabama Crimson Tide = Philadelphia Eagles

For a large swath of these teams' 2017 seasons, they have looked unbeatable for good reason.  They are overflowing with talent on both sides of the ball, and their quarterbacks have been even better than they were a year ago.  (I'm referencing Carson Wentz for the Eagles, of course).  Both offenses rely heavily on superb scrambling and improvisation from their QBs in the pocket in combination with a committee of running backs to open up play-action, and it has worked wonders to date.  Still, both offenses will be tested more in the postseason to come than they have all year.  For Alabama, Jalen Hurts has yet to crack 200 yards passing or a 60% completion rate against any of the top defenses he's played in the past two years - Auburn bottled him and the Tide offense up with no problem in their one loss this season.  Philadelphia has its own question marks under center with Nick Foles taking over for the now-injured Wentz, and he's been inconsistent at best in his NFL starts over the past few seasons.  For both of these teams, if they can establish that power-running game early, Hurts and Foles can get the job done, but they'll be in trouble if they have too much of the game on their passers' shoulders.  On defense, both teams are very solid, albeit not quite as stingy as they've been in years past, and they're dealing with some ill-timed key injuries.  With the month-long break, Alabama has had more time to get its defensive line back in shape, though they'll be without safety Hootie Jones in the playoffs - they missed him dearly during that Auburn game when the Tigers dropped over 400 yards on the Tide.  Philadelphia's defense has also taken some hits with Brandon Graham, Patrick Robinson and Jordan Hicks among others out for varying periods of time, and it showed when the fledgling Raiders were able to beat the Eagles several times in the open field last week.  In sum, if the Tide and Eagles get closer to full strength again on defense and can maintain a balanced offensive attack, they will be tough outs in the postseason.  They just need a few more things to go right than it would have seemed a month ago in order to advance.

3) Oklahoma Sooners = New England Patriots

This comparison could arguably start and end with one thing that has put both of these teams in the postseason: sustained quarterback excellence.  Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield came to the team as an unheralded walk-on four years ago not unlike that former 6th-round backup QB for the Patriots.  Now Mayfield has won the Heisman Trophy and led the Sooners to one of the best offensive seasons college football has ever seen while Tom "This Is 40" Brady is eyeing another MVP in charge of the NFL's best offense.  That certainly doesn't mean you have to like these intense glory boys personally, but if not for their quarterbacking this season, it's hard to imagine either team being contenders today.  The Patriots have had an uncharacteristically bad season on defense; they rank last in yards allowed and DVOA through Week 16 and have let more than a few teams gash them for multiple big plays over 60 minutes.  The Sooners are right in the middle of the 130-team CFB pack in yards per play allowed, and like the Patriots, they've relied on more than a few lucky bounces on turnovers and getting ahead early with their high-flying offense to stay on the right side of bend-don't-break.  Both teams may meet their Achilles Heel with physical, play-making running backs like Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt or Le'Veon Bell in the playoffs, but you just won't be able to count them out in a shootout with two top-notch passers calling the shots.


2) Georgia Bulldogs = Jacksonville Jaguars

It sure was tempting to pair the Bulldogs with the Los Angeles Rams given the Todd Gurley connection, but who knows when I'll get to insert the suddenly scary Jaguars into any meaningful playoff conversation again?  Strike while the iron's hot, they say.  If you're looking for a good old-fashioned physical ground game that wears good defensive lines down to the nub and a punishing defense that stops even better offenses dead in their tracks, these are your teams.  Under the leadership of former Saban protege Kirby Smart, Georgia's defense has quickly become a top-five unit in points and yards allowed through the strength of its prolific pass rush and depth in the secondary.  Meanwhile, the Jaguars have become a totally different animal in 2017 with a stingy, opportunistic core of Pro Bowlers at defensive back and Calais Campbell anchoring their defensive line, currently leading the NFL with 52 sacks.  All of that has allowed these teams to play a long, conservative, but effective game on offense where they will run first and ask just a little bit of their shaky-to-inexperienced quarterbacks later.  Leonard Fournette has been a revelation on the ground for Jacksonville and taken tremendous pressure off of QB Blake Bortles to do it all, usually in triple coverage.  Heck, Fournette deserves a plaque for finally proving the Jaguars can do something useful with a top five draft pick.  On the college side of things, Georgia has long been a physical, run-focused kind of offense starting with Todd Gurley, then Nick Chubb, and now a larger committee to keep Chubb's legs fresh late into the game.  They hardly missed a beat when true rookie Jake Fromm took over at quarterback by staying on schedule on early downs and giving Fromm very manageable situations to keep time of possession on Georgia's side.  Although these teams aren't necessarily built to mount a big fourth-quarter comeback if they find themselves behind, their ability to wear down opponents on both sides of the trenches ensures those comebacks are rarely warranted.

1) Clemson Tigers = New Orleans Saints

If there's one thing I've missed most with my blogging hiatus this year, it's been getting to gush about the Saints finally being a balanced double-digit-win team again.  So here we go.  I should insert a caveat here by acknowledging Clemson is a much more dominant team in the NCAA than New Orleans is in the NFL, but both teams have shown notable improvement and shifting identity in the same areas this season.  With the departure of Heisman winner and national champ Deshaun Watson under center, the Tigers have had enormous play-making shoes to fill.  2017 QB Kelly Bryant has done a solid job in relief of Watson, but the real story on offense for Clemson has been its beefed up running game. The Tigers' two-pronged attack with Travis Etienne and Tavien Feaster (along with Bryant's own footwork) have translated into 30 more rush yards per game than they had with Watson a year ago.  The Saints, of course, have had no interruptions at quarterback with Drew Brees finishing up his twelfth season in New Orleans, but they've made a dramatic shift to become a true run-first team as Brees has gotten older and less prolific downfield.  Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara and a stout Saints offensive line have made this team far more balanced and efficient than in years past, second only to the Patriots in offensive DVOA this season.  Both Clemson and New Orleans have also made significant improvements on defense compared to last year, with the Tigers going from good to outstanding and the Saints going from cellar-dwelling-abysmal to pretty good.  With upgraded talent at nearly every position, Clemson's defense is even better than Georgia's by many statistical measures and has multiple likely first-round draftees like Clelin Ferrell and Christian Wilkins in tow.  The Tigers have averaged 3.5 sacks per game and one of the best point differentials in all of college football thanks to its blue-chip defensive line.  One need only look at quality wins against Auburn and Miami in which neither team managed a touchdown to know how good this unit can be.  The Saints aren't quite top defensive brass in the NFL, but it's hard to identify another team that improved more this year, largely through the draft and free agency.  Rookie Marshon Lattimore has already become a shutdown cornerback and has gotten good supporting help in the secondary from Ken Crawley and fellow first-year DB Marcus Williams.  DE Cam Jordan is finally getting the support (and recognition) he deserves as a disruptive force on the defensive line and has 12 sacks and 11 pass deflections to show for it.  With the Tigers fielding arguably their best defense yet in the Dabo Swinney era and the Saints cracking the top ten defenses in DVOA and points allowed, these teams have the potential to go far in the postseason.


Enjoy the games!!!

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