Playoff Picks: 2018 Wild Card Round

Happy NFL Postseason, dear readers!  Let's just start by acknowledging what an insane postseason this will be.  You might want to repent all sins and get your prepper bunker in order because the Rams, Jaguars, Titans and Bills are all in the playoffs while the Packers and Seahawks are both sitting at home for the first time since 2001.  Without further adieu, here are my breakdowns and predictions for each Wild Card matchup this weekend:

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)

The Run-Down: Sexy, nationally relevant teams these are not, but they've got a lot of underdog appeal and some x-factors to keep an eye on in this first Wild Card bout.  The name of the game will be consistency for two teams that have looked brilliant at some points this year and pretty dang hapless at other times.

How the Titans Can Win: In my mind, this game starts on defense for the Titans.  They've got a verified ball hawk in safety Kevin Byard, who leads the NFL with 8 interceptions this season, and if Tennessee can control the line of scrimmage against the run, they'll have a better shot at getting extra possessions with Kansas City punts and maybe a turnover or two to help their struggling offense.  Luckily, the Titans are a top-five defense in terms of rush yards allowed, so they have a better shot than most at keeping Kareem Hunt in check and allocating a little more help to covering favorite targets Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill in the backfield.  On offense, Tennessee would do well to air it out a bit more than they like to with their "exotic smashmouth" style, even if it's a risky prospect at Arrowhead.  With DeMarco Murray out and the Chiefs struggling at times in the secondary, Marcus Mariota should open up some spread and play action formations to keep the defense honest and put more pressure on Alex Smith & co. to trade touchdowns.

How the Chiefs Can Win: Ask any Chiefs fan or Hunt fantasy owner what it takes for this team to win, and the answer is a productive ground game on early downs.  You may recall that Kansas City sprinted to a league-best 5-0 start with quality wins over the Patriots and Eagles before nosediving on a 1 - 6 slide.  The key difference between those two legs of the season?  Teams realizing they needed to load up on Hunt at the line of scrimmage and force Alex Smith into three downs of long-yardage passing.  KC's offense flows best when Andy Reid can get creative with presnap motions and misdirection, but that only works when opposing defenses aren't 95% sure Smith is going to check it five yards downfield.  As good as the Titans have been against the run this year, they are pretty awful in defending the screen, so that could become de facto game plan for the elusive Hunt in this one anyhow.  On defense, the Chiefs have been generous giving up yards on the ground and through the air and thus have relied heavily on turnovers to get the edge on opponents this season.  In fact, they have 24 takeaways in their wins this year compared to just two in their losses.  Luckily, they are catching Mariota during his worst season to date in terms of interceptions and QB rating, so if Kansas City can get consistent pocket pressure going, they have a good shot at generating another pick or two that could make a big difference in this one.

Prediction: Based on how these teams have played in the second half of the season, this game could be a low-scoring one with lots of long drives to trade blows.  At this stage, I just think the Chiefs are more talented and less vulnerable to fizzling out on offense compared to a Titans squad that has limped past lesser opponents to get this far.  Chiefs 17, Titans 13

Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)

The Run-Down: This might just be the most intriguing matchup on the Wild Card schedule this weekend between last year's NFC Champ and this year's stunning turnaround story.  With two very balanced teams full of playmakers that are heating up at the right time, the winner might end up being the dark horse to take the NFC this year.

How the Falcons Can Win: There isn't a team out there that wants to face the NFL's top-scoring offense in with an MVP-level running back like the Rams in the first round, but Atlanta has a better defensive matchup here than most.  They've held their opponents to less than 100 yards five times in the past six weeks including the run-heavy attacks of the Saints (twice) and Panthers, and they are stingy and speedy when it comes to open-field tackling.  Linebacker Deion Jones in particular has become the disruptive anchor to the Falcons defense over that time frame with two interceptions and 56 (!) combined tackles - six of those for a loss.  Expect the athletic Jones to have an active day trying to keep Todd Gurley and the Rams' sneaky-dangerous screen game in check.  On offense, the understatement of the month is that the Falcons have got to get more productive really fast to have a chance, and they'll have to do it with DPOY candidate Aaron Donald lurking on the line of scrimmage.  I think it'll have to start with sending some extra help to the offensive line. The Falcons will be dealing with a banged up Alex Mack and without TE Levine Toilolo and guard Andy Levitre, so they may have more success using their running backs to block in the pocket and get out quickly in the screen game to wear out that mighty LA front rather than running it up the gut.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see Matt Ryan break out the no-huddle early to keep the Rams' defense on its toes and keep himself upright if the hobbled Atlanta line can't do it.

How the Rams Can Win: As counterintuitive as it seems, the Rams might not want to fall too much in love with their run game if they can't get it going early in this one.  I think Todd Gurley will have a harder time slipping tackles against the Falcons' second level than he did during his fantasy playoff tear in December, and LA will also want to give QB Jared Goff some high-percentage options early on to settle into his first postseason appearance.  Using Gurley as a decoy for other playmakers like Sammy Watkins and Cooper Kupp to step up could open things up for him and the Rams' high-flying but young offense later in the game.  Plus, this is a team that thrives on getting big plays off and big leads early to force lesser offenses like the recently-struggling Falcons to turn one-dimensional for this defense to terrorize.  On that side of the ball, you'll know if LA has the upper hand if they can get pressure on Matt Ryan early on with their interior front.  As mentioned earlier, the Rams will be up against some second- and third-stringers at the line of scrimmage, and as tempting as it may be to send extra defenders the Falcons' way, Ryan has been excellent against the blitz the past couple of years.  He hasn't been as accurate in tight windows though, so sending versatile linebackers like Alex Ogletree into coverage more often could put Atlanta in more long-yardage downs and limit their playbook.

Prediction: Maybe I'm wanting to dust off the ole' Lady Blitz jinx that cursed the Falcons in that last Super Bowl, but I actually think they can win this one despite the odds.  They've got a fast, athletic defense that can limit the Rams' success on big plays, and LA has a lot more playoff first-timers on their staff compared to an Atlanta squad that made it to the big one just a year ago.  There's also that whole backup kicker issue for LA that could matter a lot if this one's close, so I'm taking a chance on the unheralded visitors.  Falcons 27, Rams 22

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)

The Run-Down: The "Hell Hath Frozen Over" Bowl kicks off on Sunday afternoon where the Jaguars will host their first home playoff game since 1999.  Incidentally, that's also the last time the Bills made the postseason, so expect a lot of "just happy to be here" love for these beleaguered fanbases as they vie for the opportunity to get demolished by the Patriots or Steelers next week. 

How the Bills Can Win: As much as I've enjoyed every bit of these team and fan videos of the wildly improbable moment that Andy Dalton sent the Bills to the postseason, they've got the toughest odds to advance this weekend by far.  They'd certainly have a better shot if LeSean McCoy were 100%, but he's day-to-day with a Week 17 ankle injury, which means it's Tyrod Taylor versus one of the very best pass defenses in the league.  In an uphill battle all the way, I think Buffalo should come to Jacksonville with a lot of read-option tricks up their sleeves that the Jaguars don't have film on.  They need every bit of separation they can get in the secondary to move downfield however they can get it.  But Taylor should also be prepared to throw the ball away and take a sack or two when the plays aren't there because if the Bills are going to win, it'll be because they dare Blake Bortles to sustain a ton of long drives without mistakes.  As daunting as things could be when the Bills’ offense is on the field, they’ve got a few silver linings to anchor their hopes and dreams when the defense takes the field. If Buffalo can at least contain Leonard Fournette on the ground (and that is an if), they’ll have ample opportunities to go after Bortles with Tre’Davious White on their side. If the last few weeks are an indicator,  Bortles is on a pick-prone downswing, and it might take just one or two back-breaking turnovers on the wrong side of the field to flip the fortunes of this one in the Bills’ favor. It’s tough to see Buffalo winning the first-round war if they can’t win the turnover battle in Jacksonville though.  Or if they decide to start Nathan Peterman again...

How the Jaguars Can Win: It’s no secret that the Jaguars offense runs through Leonard Fournette, and he could feast big-time on a Buffalo defensive line that allowed nearly 125 rush yards per game this season. The more Fournette can do the heavy lifting and keep Bortles to managing easy downs, the more likely this game will turn into a home team blowout. Even if the point differential is tight, Bortles would be best served taking only what the Bills give him based on how favorable this game is for Jacksonville’s defense. Speaking of, they might just get to have their cake and eat it too if LeSean McCoy is hobbling around and they get to focus their attention on Tyrod Taylor alone. Taylor is a solid quarterback when it comes to protecting the football and improvising on his feet, but if the Jaguars can devote more defenders to spy on him, they’ll force this offense out of its comfort zone and into a lot more long-yardage pocket passing than Taylor’s been asked to do all season. Per the above, the x-factor for Jacksonville’s defense is to expect some new wrinkles from a Bills team without much to lose and keep those lines of communication open on the field to make in-the-moment adjustments.

Prediction: If it wasn’t patently obvious from the above paragraphs, I really don’t like this matchup for our Cinderella Bills, as great as it would be for them to pull off the upset for their degenerate tailgating mafia. Tune in early to see two smitten fanbases experience the rare joy of extra football and then maybe go clean out your closet when that Jaguars defense makes things ugly. Jaguars 33, Buffalo 14

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-6.5)

The Run-Down: It's Panthers-Saints 3.0 for what should be a heated, physical battle in the trenches at the Superdome.  The Saints have the regular-season sweep and a raucous homefield advantage on their side, but the third time could be the charm for a battle-tested Carolina squad.

How the Panthers Can Win: If there's one thing that keeps this New Orleans fan up at night about Carolina, it's that this is the first time the Panthers will start bonafide Saints-killer Greg Olsen in this season's head-to-head series.  Olsen showed what he’s still capable of in Week 15 when he carved up the Packers defense for 116 yards on 9 catches. With Carolina getting dangerously thin at receiver, expect Cam Newton's favorite target and rookie RB Christian McCaffrey to take on a more prominent role in the passing game in this one, especially on third downs.  Bottom line: the Panthers need production through the air however they can get it to keep the Saints from crowding the line of scrimmage where Newton and Jonathan Stewart have typically given this team an edge.  On defense, Carolina will have to do a lot better against the duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara than they did during the regular season to avoid a shootout or blowout.  The two Saints RBs combined for more than 250 yards from scrimmage the last time these teams met in the Superdome, and you better believe the Panthers' linebacking corps have been planning for how to limit their yards after contact on Sunday, even if they sacrifice some pass coverage as a result.  As good as New Orleans' offense has looked at times this season, they are just less efficient than they used to be when Drew Brees is forced to take over, and focusing on the run is a gamble worth making for Carolina. 

How the Saints Can Win: Given those stats on Ingram and Kamara above, you, Luke Kuechly and I all know the Saints want to run the ball for 35+ minutes in this one.  Similar to my advice for the Rams, I think New Orleans has to be willing to adapt quickly if the running game stalls in this one.  I wouldn't be surprised if Brees tries to burn the Panthers secondary early with a bomb or two to Ted Ginn off of play action to back Carolina off the line of scrimmage.  It'd also help Brees out a lot if anyone not named Michael Thomas steps up in the receiving game to spread that stout Panthers front out even more ::coughs passive aggressively at Willie Snead::.  When facing the rollercoaster ride that is Cam Newton and Carolina's offense, the Saints need some A+ edge rushing to keep that dynamic QB in the pocket and seeing ghosts.  During these teams' first meeting, New Orleans sacked Newton four times and generated a whopping six turnovers in the process.  Given similar results for the Panthers last week with the division title on the line, the Saints may be catching Newton at the right time to go blitz-heavy and disrupt the Panthers' rhythm before it ever starts, even if they sacrifice a couple of big plays in the first quarter.

Prediction: I never feel good about facing a divisional opponent, especially one that can be so inconsistently good or bad from one week to the next.  Nevertheless, with Carolina running out of receivers and looking vulnerable under center, I think the Saints can do enough on defense no matter how well-prepared the Panthers are to handle Ingram and Kamara to deliver a win to that rocking Superdome crowd.  Saints 24, Panthers 17