Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles
The Run-Down: After pulling off the upset against the Rams last weekend, the Falcons are headed to Philadelphia as road favorites. Will Atlanta keep its hot streak going against the hobbled #1 seed, or will the Eagles ride that "nobody believes in us" magic to the NFC Championship?How the Falcons Can Win: Sometimes I hate being right, and boy was I ever when the Falcons shut the high-flying Rams offense down with the speedy tackling of its linebackers and secondary last weekend. That should serve Atlanta well in this game too since the Eagles would love to get good production out of their ground and short-yardage passing game so they don't have to rest their offensive hopes solely on Nick Foles' shoulders. Even when MVP-hopeful Carson Wentz was still under center, Philadelphia was very balanced in its committee-style running game, so expect the Falcons to load the box and dare Foles to beat two great cornerbacks in man coverage. The more compelled Foles is to air it out, the more I like the chances of Desmond Trufant or Robert Alford garnering a drive-killing pick. When Atlanta has the ball, they might just try to rekindle some of that 2016 magic against the reeling Eagles secondary. In December, Philly allowed 10+ yards per pass attempt in three separate games, so I imagine Matt Ryan will try to test them early on some seam routes with Julio Jones and Mohammed Sanu. Of course, the Falcons would rather run the clock out with four 10-minute drives or so, but they should be cautious with the Eagles' well-rested defensive line. If Atlanta stalls early on punts, that will give this beleaguered (and usually belligerent) fanbase a lot more spark. It'll also give the Eagles offense more time and cushion to keep pace in what they are probably hoping is a four-quarter slugfest. So I think the Falcons should stay fairly aggressive to take the wind out of those Lincoln Field sails and spread out a defense that would rather win in the trenches than in open space.
How the Eagles Can Win: Speaking of Philadelphia's defense, it's a good thing they've gotten some rest because they'll have their work cut out with Atlanta's multi-faceted attack. One potential weakness for Fletcher Cox & co. to exploit is guard Ben Garland. He was... not great against Aaron Donald in LA last week, and the last time these two teams met, the Eagles defense racked up two sacks, six quarterback hits and six tackles for a loss in a dominant victory. If Philly's front lines can recapture that disruptive magic, they'll put a lot more pressure on the Falcons offense to go into total pocket mode than the Rams ever managed to. Last time around, they relied heavily on blitzes, and although those don't seem to work too well against Matt Ryan these days, I bet DC Jim Schwartz has some disguises in mind to catch the up-and-down QB off guard on a key third down or two. And now for the big question: which Nick Foles is going to show up with the Eagles offense this time around? Foles got the job done in his first start this year with four TDs to show for it, but he averaged less than five yards per attempt and had completion rates of 50% and 36% over the final two games of the season. The only seeming vulnerability Atlanta has on defense right now is in the mid-yard game between the tick marks. Looking back to their last loss against the Saints in Week 16, the Falcons were excellent against the run but they let Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram put up 80 yards on 10 receptions in the screen game. If LeGarrette Blount can't outmuscle a stingy defensive line, I'd like to see Doug Pederson put more work on the nimble Jay Ajayi and Wendell Smallwood to keep it third-and-manageable and improve Foles' efficiency. Eagles fans also have to hope that the extra time off has given Foles more time to get used to his deep receiving corps. Although Alshon Jeffery might not see a lot of action with Trufant in his shadow, there are two other strong wide receivers and TE Zach Ertz to challenge Atlanta's depth in the secondary.
Prediction: I think I remember reading that this is the first time a 1-seed has been a home underdog to a 6-seed, and who can blame Vegas given how Nick Foles has played to date? I like Atlanta's advantages on both sides of the ball in this one, and I'd love another shot at throwing a good old-fashioned Lady Blitz jinx on them in the process. Falcons 24, Eagles 20
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-13.5)
The Run-Down: Somehow, the Titans are still here. And they get to face a Patriots team that is yet again mired in a dumb off-the-field controversy and ready to take it out on the world. This is the perfect Saturday night game to probably do literally anything else you have planned this weekend.How the Titans Can Win: Time to Titan Up and give this thing the David and Goliath treatment! If there's one thing Tennessee should have reason to be hopeful about, it's RB Derrick Henry stepping up and taking over in that wild comeback in Kansas City last week. He crushed the struggling Chiefs defense for more than 150 yards and a score, helping the Titans control the clock and slug their way out of an 18-point deficit. Sure, the Patriots defense has shown improvement since its surprisingly awful start, but they've still allowed more than 100 yards rushing five times in the past eight games including 143- and 183-yard games versus Pittsburgh and Buffalo respectively. Henry's productivity is key to keeping the Titans in scoring position and Tom Brady off the field, especially if Marcus Mariota does not continue to throw touchdowns to himself. Looking back to earlier games, the Patriots have also struggled against dual-threat quarterbacks like Deshaun Watson and Cam Newton, so let's hope Mariota throws a little caution to the wind with some designed runs and read options to keep the New England front from zeroing in on Henry. On defense, there's basically one thing that works against Brady other than Rob Gronkowski not playing: interior pass rush pressure. The Titans' sack totals are top five in the league this year, but they might have to get creative with how they line up their most productive sack artists Brian Orakpo and Jurrell Casey to make it work against a quarterback who will be expecting their presence.
How the Patriots Can Win: Well, I have a feeling New England is going to care a whole lot about what Derrick Henry is doing for the duration of this game. They will probably feel just fine daring Mariota to pass on every down even if he beats them a few times. With the QB playing just his second playoff game in a tough road environment, I think the Patriots will be fairly liberal with blitzes and run-stuffing specialists lurking until the Titans prove they can win outside of the land of exotic smashmouth. On offense, this feels like a Tom Brady-distributing-the-ball-everywhere special. Tennessee is good against the run and proved as much against Kareem Hunt last week. But they really didn't have a prayer until Travis Kelce left the game early, and now they'll have to face the most unguardable tight end in the game and his trusty WR sidekicks while their quarterback is out for blood. If things start of slowly, expect the Brady no-huddle death machine to come calling against a team that knows they're pretty darn lucky to have gotten this far.
Prediction: To beat the spread or not to beat the spread. That is the question. Patriots 31, Titans 20
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5)
The Run-Down: For those of us who would have laughed at this kind of matchup six months ago, let's not forget the absolutely stunning 30-9 whoopin' that the Jaguars laid on the Steelers at Heinz Field that started this crazy Jacksonville journey in the first place. Can they do it again, or will Pittsburgh have its revenge?How the Jaguars Can Win: In the immortal words of Jason Mendoza, all the Jaguars really need is an offense, a defense and some rule changes. Well, they've still got a heckuva defense to keep this surprising playoff team afloat for the divisional round, and they have to be feeling pretty good about facing Ben Roethlisberger again after racking up five interceptions including two pick sixes the last time these teams met. The question for Jacksonville going into this game is how much they can afford to shift their focus to Le'Veon Bell, since you know Pittsburgh will be making every effort to stay more balanced this time around. Given how great Calais Campbell was at bottling up the Bills' rushing attack last weekend, I expect him to stick close to Bell in most early- and short-downs situations in hopes of keeping Roethlisberger on edge through the air. On offense, maybe the silver lining is that Blake Bortles can't possibly have another week as bad as the last one? The Steelers have gotten perilously thin at many defensive positions in the second half of the season, and it has shown up on the stat sheet with teams averaging nearly six yards per rushing attempt in the past five weeks. Although that sounds great for Leonard Fournette in principle, you better believe Pittsburgh will force Blake Bortles to throw that ball at every opportunity. He's already proven it's better to leave someone wide open two yards from the line of scrimmage than put less than three guys on Fournette. So Bortles will have to throw a lot, and he better get the easy stuff right. Heaven help us. To be fair, maybe those scrambles that worked so well last week will come in handy to divert linebackers away from Fournette in the read option - it might be their only [offensive] hope.
How the Steelers Can Win: I'm just going to yin-yang this one off of the Jaguars preview: 1) get Le'Veon Bell going -- and maybe use Antonio Brown as a decoy if he's still ailing; 2) throw the ball away when it's not there because you'll have a lot of opportunities to keep pace with Jacksonville's offense; 3) don't let Leonard Fournette do anything; and 4) let Blake Bortles do everything. Sorry Steelers readers, hopefully this team won't play down to the competition and you'll get a legit preview next week all about those killer Bs!
Prediction: I'm going to give Jacksonville some credence in what should actually be a fun offense-versus-defense rematch. But I think I've seen all I need to see from Blake Bortles to know how this one ends. Steelers 27, Jaguars 21
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-4)
The Run-Down: Things have changed a whole lot since these two teams met in Week 1, and the stakes are astronomical. The Saints will take on a tough road test in hopes of delivering what could be one last Super Bowl run for Drew Brees while the Vikings are hoping to become the first-ever home team in February.
How the Saints Can Win: First things first: in honor of the Saints' first playoff appearance and win since 2014, please enjoy this delightful video of a horse second-lining:
Now, Drew Brees had his best passing performance of the year against the mighty Panthers defense last Sunday, which bodes better for the Saints to have a chance against an even better Vikings defense this weekend. But acknowledging imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, I think they need to look at how the Falcons' offense approached LA in the Wild Card round as a blueprint for this one. Atlanta was the definition of methodical against the Rams' talented defense, dinking and dunking for short- to mid-yard gains through the first half and only opening things up later after they had handily won time of possession and worn down the Rams front. In what will certainly be a loud, suffocating atmosphere for the road team, the Saints are better served going the death-by-1,000-papercuts route than trying to get too aggressive early against All Pros Xavier Rhodes and Harrison Smith in the secondary. I think that will translate into more bunch formations, pick plays and screens to create separation for New Orleans' less-heralded receivers. On defense, a weird irony is that the Saints might perform better here than they did at home last week. While I'm sure they appreciated the noisy confines of the Superdome, it seemed apparent they blew more than a few assignments because of the crowd noise. They'll need to get crystal-clear on who's covering the Vikings' many weapons in this one to keep the surprisingly good Case Keenum from getting comfortable. Minnesota doesn't have many weaknesses anywhere including on offense, but their three losses this year have a few things in common: consistently disrupting the pocket and breaking up passes in the secondary. As good as Cam Jordan has been, he'll need a career day in creating sacks and pressures at the line of scrimmage to put more heat on the first-time playoff QB. Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley also have the chops to take Stefon Diggs and Adam Theilen out of play, but the question will be how the Saints' second tier handles that of the Vikings offense in the middle of the field.The Horse did it for Lil Saint pic.twitter.com/5wqDIdWIsJ— Trav NEVER Chills (@SKTV_) January 6, 2018
How the Vikings Can Win: As if they needed it, Minnesota's defense got a little lagniappe during their Wild Card bye when New Orleans lost starting lineman Andrus Peat with a broken leg. With the Vikings' spectacular secondary, I can definitely see Mike Zimmer shifting the game plan to pick on those offensive line second- and third-stringers early to feed the home crowd and get Drew Brees off his game from the first snap. Knowing how good the Vikings are in man coverage, don't be surprised to see them throw blitzes and extra run-stuffers into the mix throughout the afternoon as well. Much has and will be said this week about how New Orleans' defense has improved since these teams last met in Week 1, but I imagine it was encouraging for Minnesota fans to see how the Panthers offense carved the Saints up in the middle of the field with Christian McCaffrey and Greg Olsen despite having few options left at receiver. The Vikings have a parallel set of weapons with dual-threat running back Jerick McKinnon and the ever-productive Kyle Rudolph who can challenge New Orleans' thinning linebacker corps. And as good as Case Keenum has been to this point, Minnesota's coaching staff shouldn't underestimate the need for him to settle into the biggest game of his career to date. The Saints secondary has been very opportunistic with passes that are even slightly off the mark, so going with high-percentage mid-range options will both wear out those overworked linebackers and give Keenum the confidence he needs to dial up another great performance.
Prediction: Eh, if I was being realistic (which I am emotionally preparing for anyway), I'd say New Orleans has too many disadvantages in this matchup to beat the home team. But hey, it's my dang team and maybe Case Keenum will finally turn back into a pumpkin to add to the Vikings' latest chapter of postseason misery. Saints 20, Vikings 14
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