Now, onto the final four. If you’re wondering what my worse side has been up to compared to my alleged best side above, it’s still resenting the Patriots for getting to play Marcus Mariota and Blake Bortles at home while the NFC yet again cannibalizes itself before it can even think about the Super Bowl. With three other teams having never won the big one headed to conference championships, one thing is clear for 97% of America: we’ll take anyone but the Patriots this Sunday and on February 4th when they inevitably crush the spirits of some other much less fortunate fanbase.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-7.5)
The Run-Down: The year is 2018. The Astros and Cubs have recently won World Series titles, President Donald Trump may be gearing up for an election battle against Oprah Winfrey, and the Jacksonville Jaguars are one win away from their first-ever Super Bowl appearance. And yes, Blake Bortles is partly responsible in a good way.Why the Jaguars?: Sure, these Jaguars still have some obvious inconsistencies to deal with going into Foxborough, but don’t think for a second they’re scared of this David-and-Goliath matchup with the Patriots. They fed off of the Steelers’ overconfidence all last week and showed the world that their first win at Heinz Field wasn’t a fluke, nor was their 10-win season. Blake Bortles looked lightyears better making clutch plays downfield than he did during Wild Card weekend, and he’ll need that confidence to gut out another road win when the Patriots inevitably load up the box to guard against Leonard Fournette. No doubt the Jaguars would like to grind New England’s inconsistent front down with good power-running, but they also have the ability to wear the Pats out with Bortles’ scrambling tendencies when the going gets tough. Of course, the real story on Jacksonville’s upside is its defense. The Jaguars defense arguably matches up better with the Patriots offense than just about any other playoff team in the field this year. There isn’t much you can do to stop Tom Brady with a clean pocket, but things tend to go south when opposing defenses generate pressure without having to blitz. Jacksonville was second in sacks this season and showed no signs of slowing down with two sacks and seven QB hits against Ben Roethlisberger last weekend. Their rotation of pass rushers like Calais Campbell, Marcell Dareus and Malik Jackson will keep the Patriots offensive line on its toes in trying to protect Brady for four quarters. Even if the Jaguars can’t generate sacks as often as they would like to against a team that is certainly expecting their attack, consistent pocket pressure alone may be key to creating turnovers as this opportunistic unit has done all year. Given that New England has had a down year defensively (and a defensive coordinator who's about to depart for Detroit), you can definitely see a scenario in which the Jaguars hold the Patriots to under 20 points and win.
Why Not the Jaguars?: Well, Derek, err, Blake Bortles didn't become a sitcom punchline overnight. Although Bortles has padded his stats in garbage time with the best of the worst, he really hasn't had many signature wins in his four years in the NFL to match the endless draft-bust debate. Dude was straight-up missing 2- and 3-yard screen passes to wide open receivers just two weeks ago that I could literally make. Sure, he played a key role in putting up points and first downs last weekend against the Steelers, but the Patriots are a different, healthier animal with a defensive mastermind for a head coach. They'll be sure to test Bortles with pressure and narrow, long-yardage passing lanes at every turn, and they racked up eight sacks against Marcus Mariota and a stout Titans offensive line just a week ago. If there's another reason to be concerned about Jacksonville's chances (other than playing the most dominant Big 4 dynasty of all time on the road in a conference championship game they've made seven consecutive times), it's that their defense is relying heavily on turnovers and getting pretty generous with yardage and points these days. In the past month, they've let the 49ers and Steelers hang a combined 86 points on them. Had the Jaguars not had a red zone interception and fumble returned for a touchdown last weekend, they probably would have lost handily to Pittsburgh. If they aren't able to generate sacks, defensive scores or turnovers against the Patriots, who had the second-fewest giveaways of any team this year, they'll be putting a whole lot more pressure on this offense to win a track meet, and that just won't end well.
Why Not the Patriots?: If you look at the few teams that have managed to beat New England in January in recent years (the Broncos twice and the Ravens if you're wondering), those teams have a lot in common with the Jaguars's strengths this year. They put a lot of pressure on Brady in the pocket, won the turnover battle, and forced the Patriots into third-and-long situations frequently to get them off the field. They also averaged about 30 rushing attempts despite having lackluster passing help from the likes of Joe Flacco and late-career Peyton Manning (although that obviously wasn't the case with the Broncos' record-breaking offense of 2013). We have a season's worth of experience to know that "Sacksonville" can be very effective at keeping opposing offenses out of rhythm and won't be afraid to take risks that often lead to turnovers. We also know that New England's defense can be had by the better running backs in the league like Le'Veon Bell, Kareem Hunt and LeSean McCoy, so they could be vulnerable to long, bruising drives down the field if Leonard Fournette starts getting to the second level where their linebackers have struggled. With a few lucky bounces for Jacksonville and early success on that vaunted defense, New England could get shell-shocked into a bad game at the wrong time against a team they probably feel they have no business losing to.
Prediction: Given that I already sunk any chance of having a respectable record with my divisional round picks, I’m going to roll the dice on Jacksonville. They've got some favorable matchups on both sides of the ball to exploit and they've got the kind of crazy swagger you need to think you can upset the Cobra Kai of the NFL. Jaguars 24, Patriots 23
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles
The Run-Down: One of these two historically downtrodden NFC franchises will have a shot to win the big one at long last. They'll be led by two Jeff Fisher QB cast-offs of old (boy, was that guy a piece of offensive kryptonite or what?!) and two dynamic defenses that have their work cut out for them, backup QBs or no.Why the Vikings?: Who would've thought back in September that a leading reason to favor the Vikings would be Case Keenum? Yet here he is, leading Minnesota to its first NFC Championship in eight years after an all-time gutsy performance in the divisional round. It's fair to say Keenum has been a more well-rounded, efficient (and experienced) player than Nick Foles has been this year, so he gets the head-to-head advantage in my book. And though Philly's defense looked a lot closer to its top-notch regular season form against the Falcons last week, the Vikings should take note of Tevin Coleman's stat line for ideas on an offensive attack. Although Atlanta inexplicably didn't try to give the ball to Coleman during their final red zone trip, he averaged an eye-popping eight yards per carry and accounted for a third of their offensive yards. Minnesota has a similarly shifty dual threat in Jerick McKinnon who can get extra yards in the open field and keep some pressure off the pocket in this one. On defense, the Vikings also have an edge here by most measures and have the ability to throw a lot of new wrenches into their scheme given that they are the only team in the NFL to play the same 11 starters over the past three seasons. With the ability to disguise different blitz and coverage plays or just play straight man-to-man better than just about anyone else in the league, they could frustrate the heck out of the inconsistent and still-reacclimating Foles with a home Super Bowl appearance in their sights. In sum, barring the kinds of crazy reversals of fortune the Vikings are known for in January, their talent and experience on both sides of the ball ought to give them more scoring opportunities in this one.
Why Not the Vikings?: Per that last sentence, there is still the historical tendency of this team to blow it when the chips are stacked in their favor. If they dodged a bullet against the Saints last week, one has to wonder whether they've used up all of that good karma and emotional energy before this deceptively simple road game. On the more tangible side of things, a weakness Philadelphia will definitely try to exploit in this one is in pressuring the quarterback. Against the Saints, Keenum had a passer rating of 117 when working in a clean pocket, but that rating was an abysmal 5.1 with an ill-timed interception when New Orleans' front line got to him. (P.S., Oh good Lord, why didn't we blitz him on every play on that last drive?!). If Philadelphia is as successful getting to Keenum this week as they were against Matt Ryan last week, it could take a lot of wind out of the Vikings' offensive sails, especially since favorite target/All Pro WR Adam Theilen is playing hurt. If this gets to be the slow-scoring slugfest it's built to be, Minnesota may ultimately have to rely on another up-and-down kicker to keep pace or punch in the go-ahead score at the end of this one on a rugged outdoor field. I'll wager that no one in the greater twin cities area wants it to come to that.
Why the Eagles?: There's no doubt that Mike Zimmer has proven to be a great coach for the Vikings, but Doug Pederson is arguably even better. He and his coaching staff transformed the Eagles into a top-five team on both sides of the ball and pulled off the alleged upset against a hot Atlanta team with some very crafty scheming around Nick Foles' strengths and weaknesses. No doubt they'll have some Xs-and-Os tricks up their sleeves with their three-headed rushing attack and deep pass rushing rotation to wear down the Vikings in the trenches and hopefully come out ahead on the turnover margin. And though a lot of people including myself have been hard on Foles for being little else than a game-manager, he was once responsible for an awe-inspiring 27 TD, 3 INT season with the Eagles in 2013 before getting locked in Jeff Fisher's quarterback-destroying Rams dungeon. He's gotten a whole lot more reps with a stacked group of receivers across all three skill positions since he first took over for Carson Wentz this season, and with Minnesota a bit banged up on defense, he might have just enough cushion to get the ball to matchup nightmares like Zach Ertz and Jay Ajayi to match or even best the Vikings on offense. Like I said above, Philly's defensive fortunes rest on their pass rush, and they've got the depth to challenge a good Minnesota offensive line for all four quarters. If there's one other place to look for an edge, it may be in how these two defenses play at home versus on the road. The Vikings led the league in fewest points allowed this season, but they're not as airtight away from U.S. Bank Stadium. They allowed just 12.5 points per home game but 19 points per game on the road - that's nearly a touchdown's worth of difference. The Eagles, on the other hand, allowed just 13 points per game at home and had one of their best efforts to date last week in holding Atlanta to a measly 10 points. With a raucous crowd behind them, Philly's defense could mean doom for Case Keenum's magical season.
Why Not the Eagles?: Well, the Eagles have just as much bad playoff karma as the Vikings have had in the Super Bowl era, and they aren't earning any favors in Vegas this week despite their #1 seed and homefield advantage because Nick Foles is starting. Foles managed to eke by last weekend with some lucky bounces, but the Vikings are stacked and experienced at every defensive position to take away his top 4-5 reads on every snap. It's hard to see Philadelphia winning this one without a top-notch, efficient game from their backup QB since I imagine Mike Zimmer is going to take away the run quickly with his stout defensive line. And though Philly's defense showed real signs of life in the divisional round, they've gotten burned on big-yardage deep balls and crossing routes quite a bit over this past month, which have been Case Keenum's bread and butter this season. Had it not been for that crazy deflected interception and Julio Jones falling down in the end zone on Atlanta's final drive last week, I probably wouldn't be previewing the Eagles at all in this round. Similar to the Jaguars' prospects in Massachusetts today, Philadelphia's defense is prone to living and dying by turnovers but facing a team that coughed up just 14 of those this season. They'll probably need more than a little luck to get out of this round alive, and that's just not something Eagles football ever seems to get at the right time. Given Minnesota's wild finish last week, they definitely look more like a team of destiny right now compared to Philadelphia, if you believe in that sort of thing.
Prediction: You know what? I was 100% planning to pick Minnesota in this one when I started this post, but I think I've foolishly talked myself into the Eagles. That home/road defensive split between the two teams is significant, and I don't think we can fully overestimate how much last week's game could have taken a toll on the Vikings' health and stamina. This isn't the Super Bowl I want to see, but I'm betting (i.e., blindly following my gut) it's going to be a bizarro bad-QB-great-defense-field-goal-fest in Minneapolis. Eagles 20, Vikings 17
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