Q1: Are There Any Defensive Advantages?
I could drown you in 2,000 words of statistics about how great both of these teams’ offenses are, but you already know all of that. And anyway, they’ve both been incredibly good at the same things this season - spreading the ball around with deadly efficient quarterbacks who use every receiving option and area of the field, running the ball in between and outside of the tackles, protecting the pocket, and putting up Tecmo points against defenses good and bad. So one of these defenses will have to win enough matchups and make enough plays to come out just ahead when the dust settles. Against the Patriots, the Falcons will have to generate pressure--very preferably without blitzing Tom Brady--in order to be effective. The few teams that have fell New England in the playoffs had great interior rushers like Von Miller and Jason Pierre-Paul who could get to Brady and throw his rhythm off before his receivers had a chance to get open. Atlanta's Vic Beasley has the makings of a top-grade pass rusher, but going up against the Patriots' offensive line is a whole 'nother animal than that of the inexperienced Seahawks or the hobbled Packers. Plus, the Falcons have relied much more heavily on blitzing in the postseason than they did in their first 16 games, which has paid dividends so far, but presents risks here against a quarterback who gets the ball out of his hands faster than just about anyone. But hoping for a big game from Beasley and the rest of their linemen is the Falcons' best bet to limit the Patriots' running options and keep Atlanta's young secondary from getting exposed.
On the other side of the ball, many analysts out there are pointing to New England's strong defensive performance this season as a decisive factor in how this game will play out. They'll almost certainly keep Julio Jones in double coverage all night and put their more rangy and athletic backs on other receiving options like Taylor Gabriel and Mohamed Sanu. The Pats will also likely focus their efforts on not keeping these speedy playmakers in front of them so as not togive up the big plays that have made Atlanta's offense so dangerous this season - they might cede a few 5 - 10 yard plays here and there if it means the Falcons are fighting for every third down and red zone opportunity to come away with a touchdown. So overall, I expect their style to be pretty similar to the Seahawks vs. the Broncos a few years back in playing a pretty straight style of defensive assignments and banking on strong, consistent tackling to limit how efficient the Falcons can be on a play-by-play basis. Neither of these offenses turn the ball over very often though, so that's a wild card factor that could muddle up this crystal ball at the end of the day.
Q2: What Game Film Are These Coaches Looking At?
In other words, with both the Falcons and Patriots playing peak football right now and having very few bad losses to show from earlier this season, where do they go to find any signs of weakness or advantage? From Atlanta’s perspective, I see only two tapes worth exploring: New England’s sole loss with Tom Brady at the helm versus the Seahawks in Week 10, and their surprisingly slow first half against the Texans in the divisional round. In the former, the Seahawks outmuscled the Patriots on both sides of the ball with solid, efficient rushing, keeping the Pats' underrated running game in check, and pulling off a series of impressive third-down, fourth-down and goal-line defensive stands that proved to be the difference in a one-possession game. They also managed to generate one of only two interceptions for Brady during the regular season and a fumble. Although the Texans never really had a chance of beating New England once the second half commenced, they had just the right mix of playmaking on their defensive line and some lucky bounces for deflected interceptions and a special teams fumble to keep things interesting in the first half. The Falcons front isn't likely to get to Brady as frequently as Jadeveon Clowney or Whitney Mercilus were, but they should get some ideas on the types of moves and stunts at the snap that could allow them to slip past a good offensive line - there are also some textbook examples here of sound fundamental tackling to keep the Pats' running game in check near the goal-line.From New England’s perspective, the tricky thing with the Falcons is that nearly all of their losses were winnable in the final minutes, and they’ve done some really solid work against great NFL defenses on the road like the Seahawks and Broncos that even this Pats defense has to be wary of. So going with the defensive principle of Question 1, I’d take a look at Atlanta’s turnover-shaded loss to the Chiefs in Week 13 and their sole dud against the Eagles in Week 10, who held this offense to just 15 points - a full eight points lower than their next lowest-scoring game. In the Chiefs game, Eric Berry put on a master class in sitting back on receiver routes and spying on Matt Ryan to know when to jump for two game changing picks. Kansas City also had big successes on offense around the edges with their screens and jet sweeps and throwing the ball near the sidelines to generate enough yards to keep this one close enough for Berry's game-sealing pick 2. You could definitely see the Patriots taking some similar advantages with Dion Lewis and James White in screen situations and this team's best sideline receiver in Julian Edelman. That Eagles game was a master class in what New England will try to do tomorrow - Philly harassed Ryan in the pocket all day with six QB hits and two sacks and also had a stellar performance in the secondary with five pass breakups and a pick late in the fourth quarter to lock up the win. These little things on every snap held the Falcons to a lot more punts and field goals than they're used to and ultimately made the point margin such that Atlanta couldn't fall back on its running game in the fourth quarter to protect a lead.
Q3: What Is Each Team's Uncharted Territory?
I was inspired to examine this question after last year’s Super Bowl stunner in which the explosive Panthers offense was absolutely demolished by a historically good Broncos defense. You might recall that Carolina was an unstoppable offensive juggernaut for most of the season, and they looked ready to outduel the corpse of Peyton Manning by a large margin in February. But people like me failed to factor in the fact that the Panthers played very few good defenses all season long and that the Broncos would be in a whole 'nother stratosphere - Lord knows the NFC South is no murderers' row of shutdown defensive prowess. So what do we know about what we don't know going into tomorrow's game? I'll start with the Patriots since I've mentioned this many times over in my playoff previews - as good as New England's defense has been to this point, they simply haven't faced an offense anywhere near as prolific as the Falcons'. During the regular season, they played only three teams in the top half for offensive DVOA, and two of those were manned by backup quarterbacks in Landry Jones and Matt Moore. The Pats then drew the Texans in the divisional round with a bottom feeder under center named Brock Osweiler and the Steelers in the AFC Championship in which Pittsburgh lost its most important playmaker in Le'Veon Bell early, allowing the Pats to close in on Ben Roethlisberger and shut down Antonio Brown in a contest that was never close. There's no doubt New England has done everything it possibly could on defense to shut down its opponents this season, but that only tells you so much about how this team will handle a fairly healthy, incredibly well-rounded and fast Falcons offense.
The flipside of this isn't exactly true for Atlanta. They beat the Broncos defense soundly in Denver and went toe-to-toe with the Legion of Boom in Seattle in a game decided by a very questionable non-call for pass interference. They've also outdueled many a good offense in the Raiders, Packers, and Saints as well on the strength of their own consistent offensive production. If there's reason to worry for the Falcons, I'd say it's that their competition hasn't been all that formidable in the past six weeks either. Since losing to the Chiefs in Week 10, they've faced four awful defenses in the Rams, 49ers, Panthers and Saints before drawing the Earl Thomas-less and virtually offensive-line-less Seahawks in the divisional round and the Packers starting a myriad of undrafted young players in the secondary in the NFC Championship. They can't expect things to flow so easily against the Patriots in this one and will have to be patient with a balanced rushing attack and without a wide open Julio Jones on crucial downs. The other thing Atlanta should be very wary of is New England's effectiveness on the ground this season. Of the Falcons' opponents, only the Saints and Packers were top ten teams in rushing DVOA, and they faced too many big deficits against Atlanta to wield these strengths in a meaningful way. The Patriots, on the other hand, have the offensive chops to spread the ball around in the passing game while wearing down the Falcons' defensive line up the gut with LeGarrette Blount and then forcing those linebackers to run side to side to catch Dion Lewis and James White in screens and sweeps. It'll be a tall task for a somewhat undersized defensive line that has struggled against the run at times and hasn't had to face that many rushing plays given how often the Falcons' opponents have played from behind.
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