Playoff Picks: NFL Championship Weekend

When the dust settles tomorrow, we'll know our 2017 Super Bowl contenders as well as who else is going to turn down a meaningless Pro Bowl invite due to unforeseen injury.  I gotta say, I'm none too thrilled about the prospect of any of these teams making it to February - three of them have won at least two Lombardis in my lifetime, and well, the other is the Falcons.  Seriously, anyone but the Falcons.  So I will begrudgingly make my picks now and try to work up some excitement by the time you hear back from me.

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-5.5)

The Run-Down: In terms of quarterback matchups, it just doesn't get much better than the top two MVP candidates licking their chops against some fairly bad defenses on Sunday afternoon.  With the over/under at a record-breaking 61 points, this could well come down to who has the ball last in a game built to be an insanely fun shootout.

The Case for the Packers: Aaron Rodgers is quite simply on a mission from God, and despite the misgivings you might have about Green Bay's overall balance on defense and in the backfield, this guy just continues to make ridiculous plays that can't be stopped by physics or defensive backs.  Sure, Matt Ryan is playing just as good or better right now in every major passing category, but after watching Rodgers call his own run-the-table shot with eight straight wins, hit yet another Hail Mary, scramble his way out of an all-but-assured sack, hold onto the ball when literally anyone else would have fumbled, and nail a cross-the-body sideline throw to get in field goal range with seconds to spare, there's a certain feeling that physics, space and time cannot stop this man from crushing the dreams of all who stand in his path including an incredibly hot Falcons offense.  The Packers don't have a lot of on-paper advantages over the Falcons, but they've got intangibles in spades with this late-season momentum, lots of postseason experience and all the confidence in the world going into a tough NFC Championship.  Even if they trail through earlier parts of the game, it's almost impossible to imagine Green Bay not being in it right up to the end in this one, and 30 seconds is just about all Rodgers needs to pull off another miracle.

The Case Against the Packers: Welp, I hope you're washing your hands, America, because that dreaded stomach bug has already caught up with the Packers (and Steelers) this week.  For every Michael Jordan flu game (there's literally just one), there are tens of thousands of games where seemingly passing illness and injury can take their toll on the greats.  Lest we forget, three Packers wide receivers (Nelson, Adams and Allison) are dealing with injuries that could keep them sidelined or at less than full speed to take some pressure off of their QB.  But there are certainly other more long-standing concerns to have about Green Bay too.  For one, they've needed miracle play after miracle play from Rodgers (and a couple 50+ yard field goals) to stay on this winning streak because they simply can't rely on their defense to give them a comfortable margin or on their thin, spotty running game to keep defenders from checking into coverage or running the clock down with a lead.  These are some ample reasons that the Cowboys were able to roar back from a 15-point deficit in the fourth quarter last week and very nearly pulled off the latest in a long series of disappointing playoff losses for the Packers.  Based on some of Mike McCarthy's play-calling this past weekend, he still hasn't learned his lesson about when to be aggressive and how to preserve a lead when the getting's good.  Most concerning for Green Bay though is how banged up their secondary is, considering they're up against the #1 offense in the league.  It's possible that their two best available playmakers in Quinten Rollins and Morgan Burnett will be out or limited, opening up even more passing options for Ryan and a second level of rushing lanes for the one-two punch of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman.  In other words, Rodgers is going to have to pitch a perfect game to have a shot in this one.

The Case for the Falcons: When your quarterback is the presumptive league MVP, there's always going to be reason for optimism heading into the playoffs, especially when you're facing a guaranteed hall of famer on the other side of the ball.  But I think Atlanta fans have to be especially heartened by how well the Falcons played in the divisional round after years of promising regular seasons that ended when Matt Ryan & co. would inevitably fall of a cliff in January.  Moreover, the Falcons aren't nearly as reliant on their quarterback to do it all as they've been in years past--or as Green Bay will be tomorrow.  They've had one of the best, healthiest offensive lines in the NFL this season and a myriad of weapons from unlikely places be it the speedy, cutting Browns castoff WR Taylor Gabriel, the two-headed monster of Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman who can beat defenses on the ground or on screens, or Julio Jones peaking at the right time against a likely limited Packers secondary.  Atlanta's offense is why they're here, but they've also started to get some much-needed help on defense that could come in handy with a few extra possessions on Sunday.  In the latter part of the season, they've been on a roll in forcing turnovers and finding their pass rushing prowess anchored by bust-no-more Vic Beasley.  The Falcons' defense may not be a world-beating unit on its own at this point, but this balanced cast of characters could go a long way to get the edge against a Packers team with a lot of momentum. 

The Case Against the Falcons: You can certainly make this argument for Green Bay too, but with the Falcons making so many dramatic improvements to their offensive efficiency this season, you have to wonder if what goes up will eventually come down on this team a la the 15 - 1 Panthers in last year's Super Bowl.  Atlanta simply hasn't trailed opponents much at all this season, so there's always the chance that the Packers walk in with the hot hand, generate an opportune turnover early in the game, and build a two-possession lead or so that could bait Ryan into some of his bad habits of old.  Plus, OC mastermind Kyle Shanahan has one foot out the door with his likely first head coaching gig just around the corner in San Francisco, so there's always the possibility that the team won't be quite as focused with an awkward management situation in play.  But the most likely scenario, should the Falcons lose, will be if Green Bay's offense plays even better.  Atlanta has been able to mask some of its defensive challenges by creating a lot more turnovers in the second half of the season, and the Packers are generally pretty great at protecting the football.  If Rodgers gets the ball last in a tight game, it'll be hard to imagine just about anyone including the Falcons standing in his way.

Prediction: Make no mistake, this Saints fan is going to be the biggest Packers fan you've ever seen tomorrow afternoon, but the Falcons just have so many more ways to win than Green Bay does in this one.  With Matt Ryan playing just as well as Aaron Rodgers, the Packers will lose the one assured advantage they've had in every other game during their "run the table" streak this week.  Somebody ought to tell these guys.  Falcons 41, Packers 31

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-6)

The Run-Down: Sure, this game is getting pitched as the second of two great quarterback duels on Sunday, but that would be underselling how integral these two rushing attacks have been to their teams' success this season.  Expect a little ground-and-pound, a few beautiful deep balls, and some defensive lines with their work cut out for them.

The Case for the Steelers: There's a viable argument to be made that the Steelers offense is even more versatile and balanced than that of the Falcons given the best-in-class performances of Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell.  Bell in particular has been confounding every defensive line he's faced for the past eight weeks with his game-changing style of patience and vision for huge gains and consistent first down yardage.  Given that the Patriots haven't been tested much by great offenses this season (more on that later), we don't yet know what the Steelers' ceiling might be in the usually tough confines of Gillette Stadium, but they've got the talent to beat many a good defense in multiple ways that should come in handy against Bill Belichick's scheming.  Recently, there's also been more reason to be optimistic about Pittsburgh's defense too.  With the ageless (and curiously ripped 38-year-old) James Harrison and versatile Bud Dupree ruling the edges at the line of scrimmage and the Steelers' more aggressive blitzing schemes in tow, they might just take a page from the Texans last week and find ways to generate consistent pressure against Tom Brady.  This is certainly a different team than the Landry Jones-led dud that struggled against the Patriots in October, and with Bell and this defense clicking at the right time, they might have just enough big plays up their sleeve to steal one unlike everyone else in a weak AFC playoff class.

The Case Against the Steelers: Although Pittsburgh's offense has a higher ceiling than most, they aren't as consistently explosive as some of their previous versions other than Le'Veon Bell.  Ben Roethlisberger in particular has been a rollercoaster that tends to plummet at a 70 degree angle on the road.  His passer rating has been 116.7 at Heinz Field and 78.4 everywhere else this season, and you could see some cracks around the edges in that 0 TD, 1 INT performance in which the Steelers didn't make it into the end zone once at Arrowhead last weekend.  So there's reason to be nervous facing off against a Belichick-coached defense in Massachusetts if Todd Haley doesn't figure out how to mix things up and get Roethlisberger to spread the ball to more than just the likely double-covered Brown and Bell this time.  The other possible Achilles heel for the Steelers is their inexperienced secondary featuring three rookies.  They survived against Kansas City last week, but you'd expect Tom Brady to go after them with a lot of no-huddle and quick reads with his ever-replenishing roster of capable receivers if the Steelers can't keep up their recent pass rushing success.  Like the Patriots, Pittsburgh hasn't exactly faced a slate of world-beating offenses since their last loss to the Cowboys, so it's hard to gauge whether their defensive improvement is for real or a function of getting to play the rest of the faltering AFC North and a few backup QBs.

The Case for the Patriots: Welp, considering that the Patriots had the best record in the NFL this season despite missing Tom Brady for four games and that they'll be making their insane sixth-straight AFC Championship, their chances are pretty much always good.  Despite losing Rob Gronkowski ages ago and sitting out for a month, Brady has put together another MVP-caliber season of his own and could have his way against that young Steelers secondary if he gets a clean pocket.  But like the Steelers, a lot of the Patriots' offensive success this season has been rooted in a balanced running game with human wrecking ball LaGarrette Blount to muscle his way up the middle and a now-healthy Dion Lewis to round things out on the edges and in screen situations.  They've got a lot more ways to keep the chains moving and avoid turnovers than in other recent versions.  On paper, New England also has quite the upper hand defensively - they're first in points allowed, third in rushing yards allowed and third in turnover differential, giving this team far more chances to build and keep a lead than most, as usual.

The Case Against the Patriots: I'm probably going to use this same logic in my Super Bowl preview even if the Patriots beat the Steelers given how bad Big Ben can be on the road these days.  So if you're looking for potential flaws in a league-best 14 - 2 team with the top defense in NFL in terms of points allowed, consider the quarterbacks the Patriots have faced since their last loss to the Seahawks at home: Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Fitzpatrick (twice), Jared Goff, Trevor Siemian, Matt Moore and Brock Osweiler.  In fact, New England didn't face a single quarterback in the top 10 for passer rating all season, and Ben Roethlisberger is 11th, so this will certainly be their toughest offensive opponent since they traded away some great playmakers in Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins.  That could have a ripple effect on the other things the Patriots have done so well this season like dictate starting field position for both sides of the ball and control the run game against teams that are usually starting behind and can't maintain balance.  At its worst, this situation could be like the recent NCAA championship between Alabama and Clemson - it was impossible to find fault in the Tide's performance up to that point against lesser competition, but once they were faced with a potent offense that could dial up big plays and run up the snap count, they were unable to adapt to a test they just hadn't faced.  The possibility of a Pats loss still feels like a long shot, but there are just enough unknowns to keep this one interesting until kick off.

Prediction: I fully expect that the Patriots will win this game and that I'll be one of the few people outside of New England cheering for them should they wind up playing the Falcons in a blah Super Bowl.  (For my money, Pats-Packers would be the best option).  But on the chance the Steelers string together just enough scoring drives to pull off the upset against a Pats team that just hasn't been tested much at all this season, I'm taking my chances.  Steelers 27, Patriots 24