Playoff Picks: 2017 Divisional Round

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Four divisional games give us four rematches from the regular season that could look wildly different this time around... Except for Texans vs. Patriots.  Let's be real, I could drop a passage from War and Peace in the middle of that analysis and no one would be the wiser.  But after last weekend's slate of blow-out snoozers, I shouldn't complain - there are some dang good games here to keep you from ever going outside.  Let's make some picks!

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-6)

The Run-Down: It's time for the season's last bird fight between two of the more exciting teams left standing.  When the Seahawks and Falcons last faced off in October, we got a down-to-the-wire shootout that showed the promise of Atlanta's offense and Seattle's knack for getting all the right bounces.  Now they'll fight to the death to become the trendy Super Bowl pick when the dust settles.

How the Seahawks Can Win: The Seahawks will need more than a swallowed whistle to slow down the Falcons this time around, especially without Earl Thomas there to patrol that gaggle of speedy Atlanta receivers in the middle of the field. Given how this defense has played in recent weeks against better offensive opponents like the Cardinals and Packers, I'm not confident they'll be able to win this one primarily on that side of the ball like we're used to.  But they can help the cause by collapsing the pocket on Matt Ryan.  When these teams last played, Seattle managed to sack Ryan four times, so if they get another big game from Chris Avril or Michael Bennett, they might be able to mask some of their sudden vulnerabilities in the secondary.  Their other possible out is for Kam Chancellor to rekindle some of that Super Bowl XLVIII magic by knocking the stuffing out of any receiver who dares catch the ball in the middle of the field.  It's brutal, but it's effective in slowing down offenses with a lot of weapons like Atlanta has and taking away a few pages of their playbook.  But looking at the Falcons' losses this season, the more important aspect of this game for the Seahawks is their offense.  Unless the Legion of Boom finds a little more mojo, Seattle's going to have to put a steady stream of touchdowns on the board to have a chance in the fourth quarter.  So the question is, do the Seahawks go slow and steady to try to keep Ryan off the field or do they go for the big plays that Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin & co. can dial up to swing momentum in an instant?  Personally, I like the blueprint the Seahawks put together last week against a similarly spotty Lions defense - give your running game with Thomas Rawls a chance so that you can wear down the Falcons front and then open up your play action toolkit.  And it still feels like we haven't seen the best of Wilson's read options yet this season - allegedly this is as healthy as he's been all year, and there's no bigger game than this one to try to attack Atlanta from all sides and put Matt Ryan in a situation where he feels he has to convert every drive into a touchdown.

How the Falcons Can Win: Although the odds have certainly tipped the Falcons' way since these teams last played, they should know better than to take the Seahawks lightly.  So I expect Kyle Shanahan to draw up a smart mix of short- to mid-yardage plays around the edges of the line of scrimmage to stretch that defensive line out and then take some well-timed shots downfield when the opportunity arises.  Atlanta isn't likely to get the same production out of that run game that they've enjoyed most of this season, so using Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman in the screen game is probably the best way to spread the ball around and maintain a good balance of play-calling.  They might also be on chipping duty in the backfield if the Seahawks' line has early success pressuring Ryan.  On defense, the Falcons first priority should be forcing Seattle into a one-dimensional pocket passing game.  Vic Beasley has come alive for Atlanta's pass rush and should have some juicy mismatches against the Seahawks' cheap, often bad offensive line to keep Russell Wilson in check and also keep Thomas Rawls from building momentum on the ground the way he did last week.  The more Wilson has to drop back and survey his options, the less damage Seattle can do through the many reads and play action calls they lean on to keep defenses off balance. Atlanta needs only look back at how Wilson fared against Green Bay in that nasty five-pick performance a few weeks ago to see how Seattle's offense rolls when they can't diversify their attack.

Prediction: There's always a chance that Playoff Matt Ryan rears his thin-lipped head after another strong regular season, but I have to think the presumptive MVP is going to be just fine in this one. I say Seattle calls it a season and gets back to figuring out how to keep Earl Thomas from filing those retirement papers Falcons 31, Seahawks 24

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-15.5)

The Run-Down: Here are the last five head-to-head results for the Patriots vs. the Texans: 27 - 0; 27 - 6; 34 - 31; 41 - 28; 42 - 14.  Not great, Bob!

How the Texans Can Win: Houston has a spectacular shot at winning this one... if a meteoroid hits the Patriots sideline right after the coin toss.  Maybe Jadeveon Clowney can make things interesting for a quarter or two a la Von Miller and Demarcus Ware last postseason with a few Tom Brady knockdowns and tackles for a loss, but the Texans are going to need just about everything to go their way on defense and special teams when it comes to turnovers and field position to have a prayer.  On offense, there's that Brock Osweiler guy...  At the Olmütz review he was more majestic; here he was more cheerful and energetic. He was slightly flushed after galloping two miles and, reining in his horse, gave a sigh of relief and looked around at the faces of his suite, as young, as animated as his own. Czartoryski and Novosiltsev, and Prince Volkonsky and Stroganov, and the others, all richly clad, cheerful young men on splendid, pampered, fresh, only slightly sweaty horses, talking and smiling, stopped behind the sovereign. The emperor Franz, a ruddy, long-faced young man, sat extremely straight on his handsome black stallion and looked around him with a preoccupied, unhurried air... Anyway, unless Osweiler happens to remember that he should throw the ball to DeAndre Hopkins deep downfield whenever the opportunity arises, this is going to be a very difficult out for Houston.

How the Patriots Can Win: Per The Onion, the Patriots should not allow this football game against the Texans to become a distraction.  Let #boatghazi be a lesson to us all - actually, let's not.  Okay, back to a half-hearted analysis.  New England doesn't have to execute a flawless performance in this one, but the Pats have to be careful about any big mistakes that could keep the big-time underdog Texans in it long enough to have a chance and rattle the home crowd's confidence.  Anyone who saw those Clowney highlights against the very stout line of the Oakland Raiders in the wild card now knows what kind of black hole he can create in an offensive game plan if given the chance.  So I'd expect Tom Brady to work those short and quick passing routes that have gotten him to many an AFC Championship over the years.  If Houston's front seven has any success getting into the backfield early, the Pats could lean on their no-huddle prowess to take away substitutions and zap the speed of the Texans' better pass rushers.  An argument against New England for another week is that they really haven't faced any good offenses/QBs so far this season, and if Brock Osweiler tries his hand at a few more aggressive throws like he did last week, who knows how the Pats might respond.  Ultimately, it's hard to see a situation where Houston's offense will be able to do enough on a consistent basis to outmaneuver one of the best-coached units in the league.

Prediction: The toughest question here seems to be if the Patriots cover.  And in the words of Ryan Lochte, I said "jeah!"  Patriots 37, Texans 13

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-1)

The Run-Down: Lots of mystery and x-factors swirl around this rematch.  The Steelers more than handled the Chiefs last time these teams played, but with a change in home field, Ben Roethlisberger hobbled and Kansas City getting extra rest, expect this one to be a lot closer.

How the Steelers Can Win: On offense, the Steelers' chances of moving on may well live or die on the legs of Le'Veon Bell, and given how Bell has played over the past six weeks, that's a very shiny reason to be optimistic for Pittsburgh fans.  There's a lot to love about the Chiefs defense this year, but they've been uncharacteristically bad against the run - in fact, they're in the bottom quartile for rush yards allowed this season.  I'd expect the Steelers to take a page from Bell and be very patient and persistent with their run game.  Surely Kansas City will game plan for this and try to force Roethlisberger to throw, which could slow Bell & co. down in the early going.  But with the icy weather conditions and Bell's MVP-worthy stretch, Pittsbrugh should keep toting the rock, especially if they need to wear down a well-rested Justin Houston on pass rushing duties.  On defense, the Steelers' prime target should be first-time All Pro Travis Kelce.  He's a menace in picking up big yards in the middle of the field and on the edge for Alex Smith, and he's also an incredible run blocker for the screens and jet sweeps the Chiefs like to run to open up the field.  I think you could make a strong case for double-teaming Kelce on nearly every snap with the Steelers' more versatile linebacks like Lawrence Timmons and Bud Dupree to force Kansas City into a more simplistic, short-gain playbook.  And usually I don't go into special teams here, but it goes without saying that Pittsburgh should kick those punts out of bounds every time at the risk of losing a few yards of field position.  You just don't want any chance of Tyreek Hill slipping tackles on what could be a very sloppy field for extra scores.

How the Chiefs Can Win: As impressive at the Chiefs' journey to the #2 seed has been, I'm sure they would like to forget the 43-point thrashing they suffered at the hands of the Steelers earlier this season.  The potentially good news is that Ben Roethlisberger may not be as mobile or accurate with the ankle injury he suffered last week, taking away some of the Steelers' balance in the passing game.  The bad news is that Le'Veon Bell is playing out of his mind right now, and Kansas City has really struggled to stop the run - both sides are averaging 4.5+ yards per carry, which benefits the Steelers greatly here.  Any way the Chiefs choose, they'll risk leaving some of Pittsburgh's offensive weapons more open than they'd like, so I'd put some extra bodies near the line of scrimmage to keep Bell in check.  Roethlisberger has been far less consistent on the road this season, and Marcus Peters is one of the few cornerbacks who can give Antonio Brown some problems, so this may be the best of two undesirable options.  As I alluded to before, the potential game-changer for the Chiefs here is Justin Houston, who's been sidelined with injury for several weeks.  KC is just that much more potent with Houston on the field and getting into the pocket - three of the Chiefs' most impressive wins (at Denver, at Atlanta, vs. Oakland) heavily featured their top lineman crashing the line of scrimmage, and that could force some bad picks from Big Ben and/or wear down the Steelers' offensive line to get to Bell.  On offense, the Chiefs don't have a bevy of incredible skill players like Pittsburgh, but they've got Kelce and Hill, who give them a lot of options to mix up the play-calling and work the edges of the field to tire out the Steelers' defensive front.  Pittsburgh's biggest defensive vulnerability is its very young (three-rookie) secondary, so the more Chiefs can take advantage with some new wrinkles that get big yards on early downs with those explosive playmakers, the more likely they are to keep pace with whatever points Pittsburgh puts up.

Prediction: This to me is the toughest game to pick of the weekend - that one-point spread says, "So say we all."  On the one hand, it's entirely plausible to believe Le'Veon Bell can single-handedly win this game on his talent and the defensive matchup.  On the other hand, the Steelers haven't played a serviceable opposing offense in a long time and we don't really know how bad things are for Big Ben or how good things are for Justin Houston with their respective injuries.  So I'm going with my gut and my heart instead of my head and saying Chiefs.  Chiefs 27, Steelers 24

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-5)

The Run-Down: And now for the kind of ratings boom Fox executives will buy another summer home after - and two of the most exciting offenses in the league this year for the rest of us to enjoy.  The big question here is, which style of offensive fireworks will prevail and/or which defense will hang on by the skin of its teeth to advance to the NFC Championship?

How the Packers Can Win: A struggle I have on this blog at times is how to make things more interesting when the obvious is right in front of us.  It's probably why so many daily sports radio shows are plain awful.  So let's just say "Aaron Rodgers" and leave it at that for this offense.  Of course, he's a better quarterback when Jordy Nelson's on the field, but he should have success working the middle of the field with Jared Cook and Richard Rodgers to compensate for it - the Cowboys haven't been great against tight ends this year.  Dallas has been really good against the run this season though, so I can't see the Packers trying that hard to make it a factor in this one.  See?  "Aaron Rodgers."  But looking back over Green Bay's many heart-breaking playoff losses these past five years, they've got to do things differently on defense here not to unravel all of No. 12's work.  Like the Chiefs with Le'Veon Bell above, the Packers probably won't be able to stop Ezekiel Elliott in his tracks, but they've got to shoot some gaps between those mighty Dallas linemen with their linebackers to limit his yards per carry and force the Cowboys into third-and-longs.  They should consider bringing down their safeties and corners when an Elliott run is likely to contain him on the edges - that was a big part of the Giants' game plan against Dallas a few weeks back when they held them to just 7 points.  Green Bay can live with rookie Dak Prescott having a few open looks if it means he'll have to put up 40+ pass attempts and shoulder this team's offense mostly on his own.

How the Cowboys Can Win: Let's get the obvious out of the way on this one too and say that the Cowboys would love nothing more than for Elliott to be able to rattle off five yards per carry from start to finish and keep Aaron Rodgers on the sideline for long stretches of this game.  But I honestly think they'd be better pressed to work play action and go with a lot of quick, high-percentage passes early to keep the Packers defense on its toes and forced to spread out.  Whereas most modern NFL offenses struggle to run the ball enough to stay balanced (like, cough, Green Bay), Dallas might want to get a bit more intentional about beefing up its passing calls and some designed runs for Prescott here.  Things should open up eventually for Elliott, and he can also be very useful in the screen game - you just don't want that rookie QB in his first postseason start to overthink it too much if this team's old standby plays aren't working.  On defense, the Cowboys have their work cut out to say the least.  The Giants defense did just about everything right against Green Bay in the first half last weekend, and yet Rodgers was still able to work miracles by extending his time in the pocket with his legs and pulling off another big-armed Hail Mary to kill any confidence New York might have had.  Dallas hasn't been great against the pass this season, but they've got some hope with Nelson's injury and with their emerging playmakers on the defensive line.  David Irving has become a big name in the past month for good reason - he managed three sacks and a forced fumble in the Cowboys' last three games, and playing just 19 snaps against the Packers in October, he managed three sacks, three forced fumbles and a pass deflection.  That means Irving will probably be double-teamed here, so other linemen will have to take advantage any time they can get in Rodgers' face and force him back into the errant throws and second guessing he struggled with in the middle of the year.  Dallas probably needs a big turnover or two to overcome Rodgers' insane hot streak and their own flaws against the pass, and it all starts with getting pressure on that future Hall of Famer.

Prediction: If there's reason to hesitate against the #1 seed, we have no idea how Dak Prescott will handle that big playoff spotlight in his first year in the NFL.  When push comes to shove though, I don't like the Packers' chances of stalling the Cowboys offense enough or being able to run the ball to protect the lead if they get it.  This should be a close one though.  Cowboys 28, Packers 25