Playoff Picks: 2017 Wild Card Round

Extra football commences this weekend with a pretty so-so slate of games.  Sure, we've got three rematches from the regular season, but they'll feature the likes of Brock Osweiler, Matt Moore and Connor Cook, the first quarterback in NFL history to make his rookie starting debut in the playoffs.  So with one exception, this feels like a pretty straightforward cake walk for a lot of good teams who should move on and a merciful exit for the teams that don't quite feel like they should be here.  Let's get to it!

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-4)

The Run-Down: It's the quarterback showdown you never asked for in this afternoon stinker!  But if you're looking for a silver lining, both of these defenses know that their teams' fate rests on their shoulders, so there's still plenty of highlight-reel potential for Khalil Mack, Jadeveon Clowney and friends in this one.

How the Raiders Can Win: Let's get right to the Raiders' Achilles Heel in this one-- NFL quarterback noob Connor Cook. They will have to get Cook involved early with some high-percentage, low-risk passing if they want to keep Houston's rock-solid defense from selling out at the line of scrimmage and sending a few extra bodies toward the pocket.  If Oakland has a jujitsu-style prospect (i.e., a chance to use its weakness as a strength), it's that the Texans have virtually no film on Cook, so they can try out a few wrinkles that Houston may not be expecting and try to take advantage of what's likely to be lots of man-to-man coverage in the secondary.  I say dink and dunk with lots of bubble screens to replace the running game early and see what happens - there really isn't a lot to lose with Derek Carr out of the picture.  The Radiers' defensive outlook is far better though.  They'll be facing off against the much-maligned Brock Osweiler whose own homecrowd cheered his benching just a couple weeks ago.  Osweiler ranks 29th of 30 qualified players in passer rating this season and has managed a league-worst 5.8 yards per attempt.  For all his lack of production, he's also an interception machine, which bodes well for an Oakland secondary which should have its top safety Karl Joseph back.  The bottom line is the Raiders definitely have a shot here if they can keep Osweiler and his receivers boxed into short, low-yardage passing situations to force a bunch of three and outs and turn it into better field position.  And if Khalil Mack can dictate terms at the line of scrimmage, it might just pay off with a strip sack or bad interception that puts the needy Raiders offense in truly great field position for a key score.

How the Texans Can Win: Mirroring the Raiders, the Texans' upside definitely lies on the defensive side of the ball.  They'll have homefield advantage and the chance to shellshock a true rookie passer with the ascendant Jadeveon Clowney lurking around the pocket.  Although it might feel like a cakewalk, it's hugely important for the Texans to get into Connor Cook's head early.  No doubt the Raiders will try to keep things simple to build Cook's confidence, so Houston will want to disguise some blitzes and maybe try a few pre-snap alignments that they haven't shown this season to keep the rookie guessing.  And I'd line up Clowney on the blind side whenever possible - the Raiders will be without left tackle Donald Penn today, which is a huge blow for a team that thrived on its excellent offensive line all season.  If Oakland struggles at all to protect their quarterback early, this one is over.  On offense, I'd expect the Texans to play the field position game much like their opponents - this could definitely be one of those 10 - 13 kind of scores if both teams follow their game plans well.  Although they give up some yards, the Raiders defense is no slouch when it comes to generating turnovers, and Houston should avoid these at all costs, even if it means keeping a big play or two on the shelf.  It'd help if they could get some production out of Lamar Miller to take pressure off of Osweiler, but frankly, this offense is just as good or bad when they've won as when they've lost - avoiding negative plays is about as good as can be expected, I think.

Prediction: I could absolutely see this game going either way because I think it will come down to which defense ends up making the biggest clutch play in the final minutes.  That doesn't mean you should watch what will surely be a dud when you could be doing just about anything else like filing your taxes or shoveling your driveway.  So I'm going to go with the home team that got a huge leg up with Derek Carr and Donald Penn sidelined for the Raiders. Texans 13, Raiders 9

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (-8)

The Run-Down: In what might be the most unpredictable game of the weekend, the cripple-fingered Matt Stafford will face off against the Earl Thomas-less Seahawks in one of the toughest road environments in the NFL.  On the other side of the ball, both teams have become inconsistent mystery boxes that might make huge game-clinching plays or roll over and die before halftime.

How the Lions Can Win: It still feels weird to say that an opposing offense is best suited by slinging the ball against the Seahawks, but that's where we find ourselves with this banged-up version of the Legion of Boom.  Detroit's running game is almost non-existent, and they shouldn't expect to get much efficiency out of these calls on first down or other long-yardage situations with Michael Bennett and Bobby Wagner on the other side of the line.  So hopefully Matt Stafford's starting to get used to his bionic hand because the Lions are going to have to exploit those holes in the middle Seattle's secondary in order to have any chance at amassing first downs and putting themselves in manageable second- and third-down situations.  If there's a reason for optimism, Detroit's receivers are big and speedy, and they'll need to use every bit of those assets to get open should Stafford's accuracy continue to suffer.  In particular, you know former 'Hawk Golden Tate will be itching to have a big game and he probably still has a good handle on any of the LOB's [slight] weaknesses and bad habits.  The other good news is that the Lions should have a little more breathing room on the other side of the ball.  It's no secret that Seattle's offensive line has struggled far more than usual this season, which means the Lions can focus a lot of attention on pressuring Russell Wilson in the pocket.  You may recall the last time these teams met in that controversial batted ball game that Detroit racked up six sacks and recovered three fumbles on the strength of their pass rush.  The Seahawks just haven't been as resilient this year when they've let opposing linemen get to Wilson early, so perhaps Ziggy Ansah will finally get the kind of mustard on No. 3 he's been missing to a strange degree this season.  If this defense performs to its better clutch-play generating self, the Lions offense doesn't have to carry the day in this tough Seattle environment.

How the Seahawks Can Win: Per that last bit above, the Seahawks' top priority should be giving Russell Wilson a clean pocket to work with and some outlets to run wild around the edges to open up other elements of the offense.  Detroit doesn't exactly have the stingiest of defenses, but they've got some muscle at the line of scrimmage in Ansah and Haloti Ngata as well as a great cornerback in Darius Slay who can make big plays and shut down a top receiver like Doug Baldwin.  So Seattle would do best to go back to the days of more creative play-calling that can stretch the field and throw some misdirection Detroit's way.  The more Wilson can spread the ball around to guys like Tyler Lockett and Jermaine Kearse and pick up extra yards with his feet, the more this game will feel like a repeat of last week's dissection at the hands of Aaron Rodgers for the Lions defense.  On the other side of the ball, the biggest weakness Seattle has shown since losing Earl Thomas has been giving up big plays to good offenses - they were absolutely embarrassed in Green Bay in Week 14 and then fell to the Cardinals on a last-minute field goal drive in Week 16.  Against a receiver set that includes Golden Tate and Anquan Boldin, the Seahawks need to keep these deep threats in front of them and maybe even mix up some of their coverages since they don't have as much range to play man-to-man without their All Pro safety.  Although they're likely to catch some breaks with Stafford's injury, Seattle doesn't have as much room for error in the secondary as they have in years past, especially if their offense struggles to put up points of its own.

Prediction: I'm not sure this is the slam dunk for Seattle that so many are predicting, but between the raucous Seattle homefield advantage and the Lions' recent 3-game slide rooted in Matt Stafford's struggles, I think it will be enough for the Seahawks to live another week and figure out what in the heck they're going to do against a much better Falcons team in the next round.  Seahawks 20, Lions 14

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-11)

The Run-Down: The last time these two teams played, the Steelers offense looked fallible and the Dolphins sparked a remarkable 9 - 2 run on the legs of some guy named Jay Ajayi.  But the arena and quarterback outlooks have changed to give this one a more David-and-Goliath kind of look.

How the Dolphins Can Win: When Miami pulled off that stunning upset in October, a lot could be summed up by how they played the running game on both sides of the ball.  Ajayi of course was the hero of the day, shredding Pittsburgh's defense for 204 yards and two touchdowns, but the Dolphins defense also held Le'Veon Bell to just 53 yards - half of his per-game average this season.  Given a cold and snowy weather outlook in Pittsburgh this weekend, that might just bode well for Miami if they can stick to the same essentials at the line of scrimmage.  They'll need Ajayi to have another big, bruising game to wear down Pittsburgh's defense and keep the big three from getting into a rhythm on the other side of the ball.  And if conditions clear up for a few series, the Dolphins should do their best to keep the Steelers honest with perfectly serviceable backup QB Matt Moore spreading the ball around to the likes of Kenny Stills, Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker, who can score quickly to keep pace.  Unfortunately for Miami, it's a pick-your-poison dilemma on defense.  If they crowd the line of scrimmage and put an extra linebacker on Le'Veon Bell duty, he can still do damage in the screen game and is hugely patient at waiting for the right running lane to open.  Plus, they'll almost certainly need to put extra bodies on the unguardable Antonio Brown to keep the Steelers from beating them on big plays.  Their best bet may be to go after Ben Roethlisberger, who's been inconsistent this season, especially when he gets rattled in the pocket.  In any case, the best defense may be a good offense here.

How the Steelers Can Win: My gut says we are going to get the Le'Veon Bell show tomorrow afternoon, and it'll be a lot of fun.  Despite the Dolphins' relative success slowing Bell down last time these teams met, they've given up over 140 yards on the ground per game this season.  And No. 26 has aged like fine wine as the year has gone on through the air and on the ground, averaging over 150 all-purpose yards over the final six weeks of the regular season.  Pittsburgh's offense at home is a very tough matchup for just about anyone, and they probably won't feel daunted by the snow when it comes to passing the ball deep down field.  So if there is a potential concern for the Steelers, I'd say it's how this defense will hold up against that fearsome Miami running game.  Pittsburgh has been middle-of-the-road by most measures on defense this season, but they could struggle against the physical offensive line play of the Dolphins and an aggressive downfield rusher like Ajayi as they did earlier this season.  At the risk of giving up a few big passing plays, they may do best to load up the box and dare Moore to put up yards through the air in those blustery Heinz Field conditions.

Prediction: As impressive and surprising as Miami's road to the playoffs has been this season, I just can't see how they'll be able to slow down Pittsburgh's offensive juggernaut in these conditions.  Plus, their earlier upset against the Steelers was their only victory against a team with a winning record all season - it'll be a whole lot tougher to repeat here.  Steelers 30, Dolphins 14

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-6)

The Run-Down: The Packers might be surging at the right time, but they'll be hosting the only team in the NFL that has ever beaten them at Lambeau Field multiple times in the playoffs.  If you only watch one game this weekend, circle the calendar for this potentially fantastic matchup between that resurgent Green Bay offense and New York's shutdown secondary.

How the Giants Can Win: The hopes and dreams of the New York faithful rest heavily on that defense as it did when the Giants pulled off an incredible underdog victory against the 15 - 1 Packers back in 2012.  As good as Aaron Rodgers has been this season and many more before, his Achilles Heel has always been against defenses that can generate consistent pressure in the pocket and bat down those hot reads in the slot he loves.  The more frustration and three-and-outs the Giants can build up early, the more likely the Packers offense will falter down the stretch if past trends continue.  Lest we forget that guys like Janoris Jenkins and Landon Collins in New York's secondary can handle their better offensive opponents one-on-one and force opposing quarterbacks into their third, fourth and fifth receiving options.  Long story short, the Giants defense certainly has the chops to keep this one interesting and within reach.  But the way I see it, New York only wins this one if they can shake things up on offense.  In fact, when these teams last met in Week 5, Green Bay held them to their lowest yardage total of the season by shutting down their run game and playing a very straightforward style of coverage to match the Giants' uninspired player rotations.  Ben McAdoo's offense has rightly been criticized for its simplistic play-calling and lack of variation all season long, and they've simply got to spread the field and throw in some new lineups to create mismatches.  If there are two promising developments that could help, 1) rookie RB Paul Perkins has emerged as an efficient ground option who can break off 10 - 15 yard runs at times to keep Green Bay's defense on its toes; and 2) the Packers' secondary is exceptionally thin, especially with Quintin Rollins out for Sunday.  The Giants have got to be aggressive in taking shots downfield to keep pace with the Packers offense and bring back bad memories for this defense from their awful 1 - 5 stretch in the middle of the season.

How the Packers Can Win: Although the Packers have the upper hand on offense and homefield advantage in this one, I can't imagine they're taking it too lightly given how good the Giants defense has been this season.  It may be best just to sacrifice Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams to the New York secondary gods and try to shred them over the middle of the field with the likes of Jared Cook and Geronmio Allison instead.  Green Bay may also need to be more patient with its run game here to open things up in play action, pad the line of scrimmage against New York's pass rush and avoid any costly turnovers that would give the struggling Giants offense a leg up.  Ultimately, slow and steady may be worth while even if it's not how Rodgers like to operate when he's playing hot - it's when he tries to put too much on his own shoulders in moments of frustration that this team has been done in before.  Assuming the Packers offense and Giants defense plays to something like a draw with moderate points scored, the more intriguing matchup could be when Green Bay's defense is on the field.  Two years removed from the Green Bay sideline, Giants head coach Ben McAdoo is still mighty familiar with this defense's strengths and weaknesses, and if he's going to respond appropriately to criticisms about that ho-hum offense, he's going to design a few tricks to exploit the Packers' hobbled secondary and throw some confusion into the game plan.  If I were in Dom Capers' shoes, I'd double up on Odell Beckham on every snap and also send some help toward the Giants' solid #2 receiver Sterling Shepard.  Looking back at the Packers' mid-season defensive slump, they could find themselves in a precarious situation tomorrow if they fail to take away New York's biggest play-making threats with simple, conservative coverage.

Prediction: It's no fun picking all the favorites, so I'm going to roll the dice on this one and say the playoff Giants have as good a shot as any at slowing down the vaunted Packers again.  And if I'm wrong, you Green Bay fans can thank me for putting the 2016-17 Lady Blitz stink on poor Big Blue as I've done to many others this season.  Giants 21, Packers 20