Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5) - Nothing like a good old-fashioned bloodsport rivalry to ring in the Christmas spirit on Sunday! Whoever wins this one controls their destiny with the AFC North, and so I've giving it Lady Blitz Game of the Week honors. It's just hard to argue with Pittsburgh's offense when this roster is healthy, and their defense has really turned the corner in the second half of the season as well. But don't fool yourself into thinking the Ravens will go quietly into the night. These games have always been close no matter who has the better win-loss record going in, so that's all to say don't bet on this one. I'm leaning Steelers at home though for the sake of the exercise.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7) - Here's another heavy-weight battle in the playoff stakes. A win for the Cowboys gives them the division, homefield advantage for all of January and permission to rest their workhorse in Zeke Elliott next week. A win for the Lions meas a ticket to the playoffs, but either way, they'll probably have to beat the Packers next week to win the division. So I'm going with my hunch that Detroit will have a hard time slowing down that Dallas ground game. Their luck has to run out eventually with all of these 4th quarter miracles, right?
Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders (-3.5) - I felt great about picking the Colts last week despite the evidence that the Vikings' pass rush and return of Adrian Peterson might give them trouble. Have you seen the third-string turnstiles that count for Minnesota's linemen? But I can't see Indy having the same success against that other MVP-quality offensive line in Oakland. And Khalil Mack should have quite the holiday feast on the Colts' tackles when they take the field. At its best, this game will be a crazy shootout where the winner is the quarterback who gets the ball last, but Indy's offense has to be just about pitch perfect in my mind to make that happen.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-4) - Note to self: Arrowhead Stadium does not guarantee a Chiefs win these days apparently. And honestly, I could see Kansas City struggle with a division rival that is on the ropes and desperate to stay in the playoff race. As they reminded their colleagues last week, the Denver defense is still good enough to drag this team a long way, and that's always a threat for the inconsistent Chiefs offense. But then there's the other side of the ball where KC has been bringing down the hammer and generating a ton of turnovers against everyone this season and the Broncos offense has been... collecting wads of turf in their helmet around the line of scrimmage. So I'm hoping Chiefs in this one.
Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations
New York Giants (-2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles - Did you know the Eagles have gone 2 - 9 since Week 4 including five straight losses in their last five games? The deceptive thing here is that they've been in a fair number of those losses until the end including last week's noble but doomed gamble to win it all on a 2-point conversion in Baltimore. So I don't love the Giants in this one, especially traveling on a short week, but by golly is that defense looking good. I just don't see how Philly's sputtering offense is going to get it done in this one.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-3.5) - The wild card is Miami's to lose, and they'll be put to the test in the wintry environs of The Ralph this weekend. Matt Moore has been a revelation for the Dolphins, and they've got a lot on the line against a somewhat lesser division rival here. I guess I still like the Bills though given what will probably be brutal field conditions and Buffalo's ability to beat you from all directions on the ground with LeSean McCoy and Tyrod Taylor.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-6.5) - It was about this time a month ago that the Packers looked done for after getting blown out by the Redskinks in prime time. But then they got healthy on defense and remembered what Aaron Rodgers can do and now they're just a game back from the Lions in making their seventh consecutive playoff appearance. Were they playing the Vikings a month ago, I'd probably pick against them, but Green Bay is shaping up to be a dangerous team in January if they can win out. They shouldn't have much trouble with a Minnesota team undone by its cardboard stand-in offensive line in the latter part of this season.
Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers - Carolina is starting to look like the version of the team that we expected this year, even if there's just a teensy chance they can make the playoffs at this point. They can still play for pride as a spoiler to Atlanta though, so I'm going to take my chances here and say the Panthers defense gets it done against that scary Falcons offense.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-8.5) - Seattle is a heavy favorite here after a disappointing season for the previous NFC Championship-contending Cardinals. If Arizona has a shot, Carson Palmer is going to need to rely heavily on his speedy receivers to create mismatches while Earl Thomas contemplates retirement on the sideline. As the Packers showed us just a couple weeks ago, the Seahawks are far from invincible right now. Nevertheless, Arizona's just too inconsistent to waste a pick on right now. Unless they win and then I regret writing this for 12 hours or so.
House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-16.5) - This game is almost guaranteed to be terrible, BUT never forget the gift that is sure to keep on giving during garbage time.
Tennessee Titans (-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars - The football gods should do us a solid and give the Titans the AFC South title this year. Ain't nobody outside of the Houston sprawl begging for the Texans to ruin another wild card game this January. So hopefully Tennessee can get it done against the Jaguars awkwardly playing out the string without Gus Bradley. I'm putting the over/under on stadium attendance at a robust 6,000 on Saturday.
San Diego Chargers (-6) at Cleveland Browns - At some point, you really do have to marvel at the Factory of Sadness that is Cleveland sportsdom. Sure, the Cavaliers pulled off one of the greatest underdog comebacks in NBA history and ended the longest championship drought a city has ever seen. But how did the winds of fate respond? By handing Believeland an agonizing 3 - 1 Indians collapse in the World Series only to be followed by what is in all likelihood an 0 - 16 Browns season. Thank God for LeBron or this town would have run out of Xanax three months ago.
Washington Redskinks (-3) at Chicago Bears - I'm real tempted to take the Bears here. They've been thisclose to winning more games with Matt Barkley at the helm but have come up just short in nearly every case. They'll have their chance on the legs of Jordan Howard against a fairly generous Redskinks run defense. On the other side though, I can see Kirk Cousins airing it out early and often to keep Washington's playoff hopes alive and hope some other chips fall in their favor.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3) - I'll be rooting my heart out for the Saints to thwart the Buccaneers' playoff chances. But it's been a long time since playing in the Superdome has meant any kind of real advantage or since the Saints have been able to string more than a win or two together before falling flat again against a mediocre-to-good team. Staying in the cocoon of low expectations where it's warm this time of year.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) - One of these teams is getting a real gift - the chance to win a game for the first time in at least six weeks. The thing of it is, the only thing to be gained at this point is a better draft position, so who in the heck knows what ungodly smoldering heap of incompetence will result in a win here. My best guess is that the Rams offense is bad enough to give the 49ers defense a chance. But they're both really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really bad.
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-2) - Who's ready for the Tom Savage era in Houston? It makes me super-nervous. I may come to regret switching my pick from the Bengals. But the Texans have been pretty dang good at home, and I could see their defense giving that hobbled Cincy squad some fits. This game is going to be real boring though - get out there with your high school friends on Christmas Eve and drink some eggnog instead.
Lovely Lady Locks
Based on my perfectly pedestrian 27 - 24 record last year, I think Kenny Rodgers would tell me to fold 'em in repeating this Lovely Lady Locks spread picks feature. But I'm playing with Monopoly money, so I'm going to do it again! Buyer beware. For Week 16, my Lovely Lady Locks are:- Lions +7 over Cowboys
- Packers -6.5 over Vikings
- Chargers -6 over Browns
So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 136 - 86 - 2
Against the Spread: 26 - 19
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