Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-3) - When's the last time a non-Thanksgiving or opening night game made for good Thursday night football?!?! This is makes for a big-time rumble between two red hot divisional rivals in our Lady Blitz Game of the Week! And given how they look leaps and bounds more balanced than the Broncos at this point, this could ultimately be for a whole lot of marbles - the AFC West title and possibly a first-round bye. In my heart of hearts, I have no inkling as to who will win. The Raiders are relentless on offense even when they're down, and the Chiefs just seem to come up with all of the clutch plays at the right time, along with homefield advantage for this one. So I'm going with my heart and picking Big Red at Arrowhead.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-6) - I know it was just the Jets on Monday night, but boy did the Colts look good on both sides of the ball. They held Gang Green to just a field goal until Bryce Petty's garbage time, and well, you know about Andrew Luck. Anyway, Indy should have beaten the Texans in their first matchup, and given how Luck is trending up while Brock Osweiler continues his slide down the starting QB mortal coil, I think the Colts get payback and a big edge this week in tightening their grip on the AFC South.
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Green Bay Packers - Depending on what the Frozen Tundra looks like in this one, we could have a crazy-fun shootout or a defensive slog in the trenches. And that makes this game extremely hard to pick since I think the former conditions favor the Packers while the latter would give Seattle a defensive edge at the line of scrimmage, especially with Earl Thomas out for the year. Between these two teams with top-level talent but cracks around the edges, I guess I'm going Green Bay. Thomas is simply instrumental to Seattle's defense, and Aaron Rodgers has to like his improved chances of carving up that secondary without him.
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at New York Giants - Dallas has already locked up a playoff spot, and the Giants are knocking on the door with as good a record as any other non-Cowboys team in the NFC. All things being equal, who can pick against Dallas at this point? They might get a little more room to operate their offense (like they need it) now that the Giants' Jason Pierre-Paul is out for the year, and New York has yet to beat a quality team since... the Cowboys in Week 1.
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-7) - This looks to be a solid defense vs. offense prime time affair that I hope will be more than a breezy Pats blowout. The Ravens are one of the few teams who consistently give them a hard time in Foxborough, and I reckon Baltimore is grateful that they won't have to factor Rob Gronkowski into their defensive schemes. Nevertheless, New England's just going to keep steamrolling everyone until they don't, so I'll take a not-so-risky chance that they win here.
Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations
Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-1) - It's purely a function of the work week slog that I have been posting my picks on the weekend lately, but it has its benefits. Case in point: I really wish I knew whether Paxton Lynch or Trevor Siemian will be starting for the Broncos on Sunday because that might change my pick. So I'm lightly penciling in the Titans and sitting on my hands on the assumption Lynch starts and the bye week treats Tennessee well with their fancy cleats and all.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) at Buffalo Bills - Boy does this feel like a potential trap game for the Steelers. They handled a Giants team short on offense last week, but the Bills are a whole 'nother animal with a multi-faceted ground attack. As with the Green Bay game above, this could come down to weather with snow possible on Sunday. I'm going to take a risk and go with my hunch on this one that a little help from Mother Nature could go a long way to boost a decent Bills team that is hell on wheels when it runs the ball over a better but not dominant Steelers squad.
Washington Redskinks (-1) at Philadelphia Eagles - It looks like the Eagles have officially lost their mojo and become closer to the 4 - 12 version I envisioned long ago... with Sam Bradford at the helm of course. They still only have one loss against a desperate Packers team at home, so there's a chance they rebound here in the friendly confines of Philly, but I think Washington has a few too many offensive weapons for the Eagles to keep pace with their own sputtering offense.
Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins (-1.5) - This feels like a game ripe for some fluky stuff. Both of these teams have had glimmers of greatness here and there during the season, but they just can't seem to sustain their success when the going gets tough. The Dolphins got smacked down by a terrific Ravens defense last week, and Arizona obviously has some chops to keep them at bay here. But in their early kickoff road games so far this year, the Cardinals have gone 0 - 4 with a minus-50 point differential. That's real bad. Can Bruce Arians help them learn from their eastern road trip blues or are they destined to fall flat against a Miami team that most of us don't quite believe in? I guess I'll give 'em a shot - maybe Joe Flacco exposed some things in that Dolphins secondary that Carson Palmer can feast on.
San Diego Chargers at Carolina Panthers (-1) - So these teams are already eliminated from the playoffs. That doesn't mean they won't have some entertaining moments in this meaningless Sunday afternoon tussle. It's hard to pick this one not knowing if the Panthers defense will be something more than the shell of itself that played last Sunday. Plus, Ron Rivera's respectability necktie garbage is the sort of thing that can sour a locker room real quick when the losses are piling up. So I guess I think the Chargers are a little better having languished at the bottom of the league's toughest division this year. They would have had the AFC South locked up by now if they could relocate... err, except probably not in L.A.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) - I had a bad feeling about the Saints/Lions game last week and I let my fragile hope and optimism get the better of me. Weirdly, New Orleans is still in the hunt here - sweeping the Bucs is the bare minimum needed to keep it that way. But the Saints have been agonizingly consistent in their inconsistency these last three seasons. The inevitable disappointment of this season should be no different, and they won't have any room for error against a Tampa team that is playing extremely confident football right now. So yeah, back to the comforting cocoon of low expectations.
House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest
Cincinnati Bengals (-6) at Cleveland Browns - This could be the first time those Heisman hopefuls are dreading winning the trophy - that puts them one step closer to landing in Cleveland in the 2017 draft.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-8) - So the Lions are going to win the NFC North in all likelihood... if they don't lose to the Bears again.
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars - Put this one on trap game alert too. The Jaguars aren't quite as bad on defense as you think, and the Vikings will take a bit of a hit with safety Harrison Smith out indefinitely. Counterpoint: it's the Jaguars.
New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) - So the 49ers might just win their first game since Week 1 (!) when they square off with Jets rookie QB Bryce Petty this weekend. What a time to be alive. It's not a sure bet if New York can get its running game going against that atrocious San Fran defense, but I imagine they'll be okay loading up the box and daring Petty to throw most of the time.
Atlanta Falcons (-6) at Los Angeles Rams - That was pretty fun watching Matt Ryan gift 9 points to the Chiefs last week! I don't suppose we'll have such luck when he squares off against Jared Goff this weekend, however. One potential upset factor to keep your eyes on though: how will the Falcons' line hold up against that mean Rams pass rush with LT Jake Matthews possibly sitting out?
Lovely Lady Locks
Based on my perfectly pedestrian 27 - 24 record last year, I think Kenny Rodgers would tell me to fold 'em in repeating this Lovely Lady Locks spread picks feature. But I'm playing with Monopoly money, so I'm going to do it again! Buyer beware. For Week 14, my Lovely Lady Locks are:- Ravens +7 over Patriots
- Bengals -6 over Browns
- Bears +8 over Lions
So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 113 - 78 - 2
Against the Spread: 22 - 17
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