Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking
New England Patriots (-3) at Denver Broncos - The top seed in the AFC and a wild card bid are at stake in our Lady Blitz Game of the Week! And this could be a lot closer than you might think. For one, Tom Brady is 2 - 7 all time at Mile High, lest we forget how last season ended for this heavy Super Bowl favorite. Moreover, the Pats are a little more porous on defense these days without Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins in the mix, which is exactly what the Broncos offense needs to stay in this one. Still, if there's kryptonite to dole out in this one, it's Denver's run defense, which has fallen way back to Earth compared to last year. I say the Pats run right over them with human wrecking ball LeGarrette Blount, while the Broncos' run game continues to be non-existent on the other side.
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) - The Titans have proven to be no slouch this season, and if they can get their running game going early against the Chiefs, they've got a chance here. Their biggest challenge will be protecting the football given that Kansas City leads the league in turnovers and feeds off of the crowd noise at Arrowhead to create confusion and rattle young QBs like Marcus Mariota. I think KC's defense plays some hero ball here and clinches a playoff spot in front of a rabid fanbase.
Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-4) - This is a hugely important game for both of these teams as the divisional and wild card races heat up around them. A loss for either team could put them on the wild card bubble with some tough games left in the final two weeks of the season. A win will give one of them a much-needed cushion against all of those wild card contenders and keep their division title hopes alive. So when push comes to shove, I really like how New York's defense is playing these days, and with Matt Stafford dealing with a banged up throwing hand, there's far less room for error for Detroit in a tough road game here.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals - Seems like the Steelers might want to keep Antonio Brown under lock and key, considering how the Bengals have ruined his postseason opportunities these past two years. This may not be the prettiest or most meaningful game on the slate since Cincy has nothing to play for, but there aren't two teams in the NFL that hate each other more right now, so I expect it to be brutal and competitive. From a karma and talent standpoint, the Steelers ought to win. We'll see.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-7) - This is a dangerous game for the Cowboys with the Giants suddenly lurking after that series sweep. You don't need me to tell you how phenomenal the Buccaneers defense has become after knocking off playoff contenders like the Chiefs and Seahawks and offensive juggernauts like the Chargers and Saints this past month. And that Giants game last week may just give the Bucs a blueprint for keeping Dallas' offense in check too, meaning "Make Dak Prescott throw the ball a lot." A Cowboys win may be wishful thinking on my part at this point - I've lost count of how many times I've rolled by eyes during all of these Jameis Winston character inflation pieces in recent weeks. But Tampa's defense isn't great against the run and Winston may have some back-breaking turnovers stored up for this prime time affair, so I'm hoping Dallas can take full advantage and push the Bucs out of the soft focus human interest business this week.
Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations
Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens (-6) - That was a tough loss for the Ravens last week, but I think they've evolved into a pretty good team with a great defense this season, and they are deserving of a wild card spot in my mind if they can get it. They should be able to keep hope alive this week when the Eagles come to town. Philly is a ghastly 1 - 6 on the road and without a key offensive and special teams weapon in Darren Sproles.
Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskinks (-6.5) - A.k.a., the Josh Norman revenge game. Not that Norman has much to prove after watching his former team tank to an inexplicable degree this season. I can't say I feel great about the Redskinks as a postseason contender this year, but they are pretty darn good at home while the Panthers have been a miserable 1 - 5 on the road so far this season. With Norman having a lot of intel on Carolina's tendencies and soft spots on offense and some good matchups for Kirk Cousins to exploit with the Panthers' secondary, I give Washington the edge here.
House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-16) - Let the social media record show that I correctly picked the Seahawks, whose chartreuse nightmare was more than enough to overpower the Jeff Fisher-less Rams.
Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at New York Jets - Not a lot to love under center for either of these teams, who will be quietly doing football things on Saturday night when no one's watching. But Matt Moore isn't the worst backup, and the Jets secondary will surely make it easy on him.
Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at Chicago Bears - Lost in the mix of this miserable Bears season is how good their defense has been. It likely won't be enough to overcome the Packers on their hot streak, but I'm not sure Green Bay is going to be able to put up more than 3 - 4 scores on 'em.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-5.5) - Lawdy. I think it's fair to say this Texans team could be worse than the 7 - 8 - 1 Panthers who made the postseason a couple years back. And the only reason they'll be in the mix in January is because of powderpuff games like this one against the Jaguars. Houston is currently 4 - 0 against the AFC South and 3 - 6 against everyone else. Yuck.
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-10) - Going to go out on a limb here and say the Browns aren't going to win this week either.
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-4) - Although these two teams are technically still in the playoff hunt, who can believe in them after all of the bad losses they've had this season? This feels like a coin flip game to me, so I'm going on a hunch that the Colts will do that thing where they looked really bad last week so now they'll win so that when you think they're good again in a week, they'll lose.
New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (-3) - The Wasted Potential Bowl will kick off in mid-afternoon on Sunday. Pretty sure the Saints can one up the Cardinals on that front.
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (-13.5) - Yowza - I'll let the point spread speak for itself on this one.
Lovely Lady Locks
Based on my perfectly pedestrian 27 - 24 record last year, I think Kenny Rodgers would tell me to fold 'em in repeating this Lovely Lady Locks spread picks feature. But I'm playing with Monopoly money, so I'm going to do it again! Buyer beware. For Week 15, my Lovely Lady Locks are:- Buccaneers +7 over Cowboys
- Raiders -3 over Chargers
- Cardinals -3 over Saints
So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 123 - 83 - 2
Against the Spread: 24 - 18
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