NFL Week 13 Picks

Hey look - some lucky Week 13 picks!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) - We've got a rapidly improved defense versus a premiere big-play offense in this Lady Blitz Game of the Week! To me, the intrigue here is whether the Giants can rise to the occasion against one of the toughest offensive opponents they've faced yet in a hostile environment. New York has swept its last six opponents with a collective win-loss percentage of 0.308, but they're about to hit a final stretch where their opponents are currently at 0.642. I might change my mind about these guys if they can keep Le'Veon Bell and friends grounded on Sunday, but I'm envisioning this game as the start of the "what's wrong with the Giants?" narrative we'll be hearing in about two weeks.

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons (-5.5) - There's no time like the present for Justin Houston to get back to form for the Chiefs. Among many fantastic performances last week on both sides of the ball, his might have been most crucial for a team's playoff stakes today.  The question is, can KC keep that league-best Falcons offense in check?  It will be tough, and if I was going to play it safe at this point, I'd go Atlanta.  But I'm going to swing for the fences on the chance that Houston anchors another big-time pass rushing performance and that the Chiefs' offense opens up now that the Falcons' top cornerback Desmond Trufant is out for the year.

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) - These aren't exactly the most exciting AFC playoff hopefuls in the bunch, but there might not be a higher-stakes game for both opponents on the docket this week.  Caveat: they'll still have to hope a couple of those AFC West dynamos fall flat before January rolls around.  Anyway, it's hard to argue against the Dolphins on a six-win streak, but they'll be coming to Baltimore with a pretty banged up offensive line and a hobbled DeVante Parker.  Against a defense as good as the Ravens', that's a pretty big uphill battle for the aggressively mediocre Ryan Tannehill.

Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders (-3) - This here could be a sneaky-good game with lots of disruptive linemen going after some of the most explosive offensive playmakers in the league this season. Although I'm not sure they can win out the rest of the season with three huge divisional road games coming up, the Raiders are the real deal and should be able to outpace a dynamic Bills offense in this one.  If Khalil Mack has another game like last week, it's game over for Tyrod Taylor and friends.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Minnesota Vikings - Let the social media record show that I correctly picked those invincible Cowboys, even though the Vikings had a valiant defensive stand.  Poor Vikings.

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-6) - Oh how I'm dreading the potentially agonizing heartbreak of this game.  Five of the Saints' six losses were in one-possession games where they absolutely blew it in the fourth quarter, and the Lions are unrivaled in improbable fourth-quarter comebacks this season. Sigh - just hoping Drew Brees' offense can bail us out on this one.

Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers (-6) - Welp, it looks like the Pack is back again.  Green Bay made some brilliant adjustments in that formidable road game against the Eagles last week, and Houston's strengths and weaknesses mirror those of Philly's in a lot of ways.  I reckon Aaron Rodgers will keep spreading the ball on quick snaps, and the Packers' defense will sell out on the run to force Brock Osweiler to keep throwing during his plain awful quarterbacking season.  And for a cheesehead bonus, Jadeveon Clowney will also be sitting this one out, so Green Bay could be putting up some serious points this time tomorrow.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Diego Chargers (-3.5) - It's hard to knock the Buccaneers after two impressive wins in a row against the Chiefs at Arrowhead and the postseason-darling Seahawks. Truthfully, I'm still trying to figure them out.  The defense has been on fire for the past three weeks, holding opponents to an average of just over 7 points per game, and Jameis Winston is trending upward in his efficiency under center the second half of the season.  I guess you can tell by my pick that I still think this is a little fluky, but this time around, I wouldn't be surprised if the Bucs steal one from the Chargers.  I might even have to start picking them if so.

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-7) - As trivial as it is, I'm loving the karma beef between Richard Sherman and Cam Newton right now.  It's fitting for one of the better non-divisional rivalries in the NFL these days since you know both teams want to win this one more than just about any game left on the regular season schedule.  The Panthers might as well throw in every trick they have in the book here since they're on the road with very short-handed on defense, but I can't see it being enough against a Seattle team that's getting healthy and should have room to operate on offense in this one.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots (-13.5) - The AFC playoff race just got a lot more interesting, but unfortunately it's because the Gronk is out for good in another injury-shortened season.  Good thing the Pats have some cushion here against the Rams to figure out whatever crazy scheme adjustments they'll make before January.

Denver Broncos (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars - It's Paxton Lynch time again for the Broncos, and he should have a pretty nice ramp up against the Jaguars this weekend.  It's not that I expect Lynch to be flawless against Jacksonville's defense - it's that he should have the cushion to avoid risky plays given that the Jaguars offense will be without a bunch of playmakers including Allen Hurns, Julius Thomas and Chris Ivory.  Expect the Denver D to feast.

Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) - Boy have the Eagles been perplexing this season.  Just when I think I have them figured out as a good or bad team, they make a pivot in the opposite direction the next week.  So after two bad losses these past two weeks, they'll probably look awesome for a nanosecond against the Bengals.  Maybe.

San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) at Chicago Bears - With the Browns taking a really weird Week 13 bye, these two teams will have themselves a cage match for the rights to the bottom of the barrel.  It should be illegal even to bet on a game like this since both franchises could have quite the ulterior motive to tank for a better draft spot.  But if I'm guessing this one straight, I'm going Bears.  The weather looks to be wintry and miserable tomorrow and there ain't a worse rushing defense in the league than the 49ers' by a very, very large margin.

Washington Redskinks at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) - I'm starting to suspect my Cardinals NFC Champ pick might not pan out this year.  The Cards defense has been pretty darn good at home, which is what they'll need to have a shot against the Redskinks, but they won't have the Honey Badger in this one, and I'm thinking that will give Washington a decent shot with arguably the deepest receiving corps in the league.

Indianapolis Colts (-2) at New York Jets - This here looks to be a shootout, so I'm going Andrew Luck over Ryan Fitzpatrick.  Tough choice...

Lovely Lady Locks 

Based on my perfectly pedestrian 27 - 24 record last year, I think Kenny Rodgers would tell me to fold 'em in repeating this Lovely Lady Locks spread picks feature.  But I'm playing with Monopoly money, so I'm going to do it again!  Buyer beware.  For Week 13, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Lions +6 over Saints
• Packers -6 over Texans
• Rams +13.5 over Patriots

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 102 - 74 - 2
Against the Spread: 20 - 16