Who Should I Cheer for in the College Football Playoffs? Finding an NFL Spirit Animal for Each Team

Who should you cheer for if you're glued to the couch on Sundays instead of Saturdays?  I've prepared a scientifically airtight translation guide to help.  Meet the 2016 College Football Final Four and their NFL spirit animals!

4) Washington Huskies = Oakland Raiders

Despite high-flying offensive fireworks and some dynamic defensive playmakers, these two teams are a long shot to make it to their respective championship games.  They'll need just about everything to go right, and the best case scenario is likely a shootout where they have the ball last (this would be more true for the Raiders if they had Derek Carr of course, so suspend your disbelief a little).  Like Carr, Washington QB Jake Browning has a big arm that can stretch the field and put up points quickly.  On defense, both of these teams live and die by their pass rushing abilities, which have been inconsistent this season.  After a slow start, the Raiders' Khalil Mack has come alive and put himself squarely in the middle of the Defensive Player of the Year conversation.  Oakland's defense looks a lot more anchored now that Mack is back to patrolling the line of scrimmage for stuffs and sacks.  The Huskies started off their year with a bang on defense, averaging four sacks per game through their first six weeks.  But now that edge rusher Joe Mathis is out for the season, they'll have to find other ways to get to Alabama's Jalen Hurts and keep him in the pocket to keep that championship appearance within reach.

3) Ohio State Buckeyes = New York Giants

Before we get started, I just want to point out that in this spot last year, I spent a whole paragraph talking about the Michigan State "Trojans".  That was embarrassing but now retroactively fixed!  Also, why didn't you tell me?  Anyway, let's start with defense in this one, which is the foremost reason why both of these teams are going to the postseason.  Both the Buckeyes and Giants made some pretty serious roster moves on this side of the ball due to the NFL draft raid for the former and a lot of cap space and room for improvement for the latter.  For those reasons, neither of these teams was expected to be immediately terrifying on defense, but through December, they have two of the best secondaries in the game and are generally very stingy in points and yards allowed.  That's good news because they've both taken a step back on the offensive side of the ball and just haven't been as good as with previous seasons in dialing up big plays to put points on the board.  Sure, there are flashes of greatness with Odell Beckham on the outside or J.T. Barrett scrambling into an open lane, but both of these fan bases would probably have no problem with a whole lot more of that heading into the postseason than they're getting so far.  Against their better opponents, they've relied on keeping the score low so that they can tire out the other side and stay within striking distance with a few extra possessions to work with.  That will certainly come in handy when they face some of the bigger, better offenses in their realm in the next few days and possibly weeks.

2) Clemson Tigers = Seattle Seahawks

Just a few years ago, neither the Tigers nor the Seahawks were on anyone's radar as potential world beaters.  These days, they're both perennial contenders thanks to dynamic quarterback play and some of the best defensive lines in the game.  I also see some similarities in their strengths and setbacks this year.  On offense, both Clemson and Seattle have struggled much more than usual this season to run the ball, so they've relied heavily on their dual-threat quarterbacks to keep the chains moving and improvise their way out of trouble at times.  But there's still plenty to love about these two defenses.  Despite some injuries and roster turnover, they continue to unleash holy terror at the line of scrimmage, especially against opposing runners who often find themselves stuffed or tackled for a loss.  If they want to go far this postseason, they'll need to collapse the pocket consistently to limit the plays available to the many talented offenses you see elsewhere on this list.  Clemson and Seattle might not look quite as dominant as they've been the past year or two, but that's only because the bar to sustain that kind of performance is very, very high.  This year, and possibly many more to come, they've got plenty of talent and a growing body of experience to make a serious run.

1) Alabama Crimson Tide = Kansas City Chiefs

As I said last year, it's no fun just calling these guys the Patriots every year.  We get it - they pretty much never lose and have seemingly never missed a postseason appearance no matter who's playing or how much roster turnover happens.  So I'm nominating the Kansas City Chiefs instead this year for a few reasons.  For one, these teams are very balanced on both sides of the ball.  They can run a variety of offensive plays with the kind of misdirection that keeps defenses guessing - they've got quarterbacks who can scramble with the best of 'em, very efficient run games inside and outside the tackles, and the occasional jet sweep with their speedy receiver sets to pick up big chunks of yardage.  Both Alex Smith and Alabama QB Jalen Hurts prefer to dink and dunk their way to first downs in passing situations and rule time of possession when possible.  Of course, the other obvious parallel here is how good these defensive and special team units are at generating turnovers and scoring.  The Chiefs lead the league in D/ST touchdowns this season, and the incredibly fast and evasive (and truly awful) Tyreek Hill has led the way with two return TDs and over 17 yards per return.  Meanwhile, the Tide have been downright historic in their non-offensive scoring ability with 13 touchdowns this year.  And then there's these two teams' formidable defensive lines that can make it hard for just about anyone to keep their quarterback upright and on schedule when they collapse the pocket.  Obviously the Tide have a much clearer path to a championship than the Chiefs this postseason, but they're certainly cooking from the same recipe for success.

Enjoy the games!!!

NFL Week 17 Picks

Welp, after one of the weirder, more unpredictable NFL seasons in recent memory, there's a surprising amount of the playoff picture that's all wrapped up before this final week. What we know: six of eight divisions have been won, all AFC contenders are set with a little seeding left to play for, and the NFC has one division title and one wild card spot up for grabs.  Also, neither the Broncos nor the Panthers will have a shot at a second consecutive Super Bowl appearance since they plummeted from an 0.844 win percentage last season to 0.467 this year.  See?  Weird.  Anyway, that makes a pretty short list of games that matter and a lot of room for error in my picks since so many teams have just about nothing to play for but pride at this point.  Let's give it a try!

Also, come back here tomorrow for my annual tradition of finding an NFL spirit animal for each of the college playoff teams!

Games That Matter: Ranked by Entertainment Value and Playoff Significance

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Detroit Lions - We've only got one head-to-head game for all the divisional marbles (and possible sole playoff spot) this week, so give it up for the Packers and Lions!  Detroit has been an interesting team this year to say the least. Thanks to that shellacking at the hands of a Dallas team with nothing to play for on Monday, the Lions now have a negative point differential for the year despite a solid 9 - 6 record.  When they've been on, they've been able to generate opportune turnovers and let Matts Stafford and Prater do the heavy lifting with those NFL-record eight fourth-quarter comebacks.  But they've shown some cracks around the edges these past couple of weeks on both sides of the ball that have put them in this must-win situation.  The Packers, of course, have trended in the opposite direction.  After a 1 - 5 slide earlier this season, they've rattled off five straight wins and might just be the scariest team in the NFC now that their defense is healthy again.  So I reckon that Green Bay is used to winning in high-pressure situations while the Lions have never quite gotten over that hump and seem primed to get their hearts broken in this regular season closer.

New York Giants at Washington Redskinks (-8) - If the Redskinks win, they are in so long as the Packers and Lions don't tie.  The Giants will stay put either way, so NBD as the millenials say. Some New York footballers have said they plan to play to win this one, and I can imagine them wanting to end the regular season on a better note after an embarrassing outing in Philadelphia last week.  Still, I'd guess Ben McAdoo would rather his starters be healthy and rested for an assuredly tough wild card game next weekend while Washington will be playing this one like a playoff game. 

Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at San Diego Chargers - The Chiefs clinched a playoff spot last Sunday with a resounding win against the Broncos, and they've got a shot at the AFC West and a first-round bye if they win here and if Denver can handle the Raiders without MVP candidate Derek Carr at the helm.  Even though Kansas City has played loads better than the Bolts this year, I'm not sure this is an easy out since it well could be the Chargers last game (for real this time) in San Diego.  Nevertheless, the Chiefs have had the Chargers' number for a while now with five straight head-to-head wins and have everything to play for in this one.  For the sake of those loyal and sloppy fans at Arrowhead, let's hope KC gets it done.


Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-1.5) - They've never been a particular rooting interest of mine, but how can you not feel for the Raiders after that devastating injury to Derek Carr last week?  I had visions of Tuck Rule Bowl 2.0 and an AFC Super Bowl team not helmed by a Manning, Brady or Roethlisberger for just the second time in twelve years.  Now, we'll have to see how far they can go on the arm of Matt McGloin and my instincts say "not very."  Denver may be out of playoff contention, but this defense is absolutely furious after getting no help from Trevor Siemian & co. and getting dunked on by Dontari Poe after a drubbing in Kansas City last week.  I feel like the Broncos are going to go on a tear against this Oakland backup and get ready to reload in 2017.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) - Oh, my kingdom for a Saints win here.  If they can draw Atlanta into a shootout, they've always got a shot with Drew Brees under center.  But the Falcons suddenly find themselves in the catbird seat for a first-round bye after the Seahawks lost to the Cardinals last week, and they've had a terrifyingly good offense.  My hands are tied - I have to jinx this one to the best of my abilities in hopes that it leads to Atlanta getting their playoff hopes crushed by the Packers immediately and Matt Ryan losing out on MVP honors.  Sometimes others' misery is the best victory available (if you're petty).

New England Patriots (-9.5) at Miami Dolphins - At a glance, this game doesn't seem like much, but there are stakes for both teams here, especially with the noon kickoff. If the Patriots win, they lock up the #1 seed in the AFC regardless of whether or not the Raiders win later in the day. The Dolphins have to win and then root for the Chargers to beat the Chiefs in order to move up to the fifth seed. It's not much, but it could put another week between the Fins and a trip back to Foxborough in January if the chips fall well in the wild card round. I'm guessing Bill Belichick isn't going to leave that top seed to chance though - gotta go Pats here.


Seattle Seahawks (-9.5) at San Francisco 49ers - Per the above, the Seahawks need help from the Saints to have a chance at a first-round bye and some significant homefield advantages this January.  So this game matters, but Seattle should have absolutely no problem against the hapless 49ers.  That's pretty much the extent of the analysis I have for you - you're welcome!

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6) - For the record, here's everything that has to go right for the Buccaneers to get to the playoffs after they lost to the freakin' Saints last Saturday.  The odds are so slim in fact, you won't be seeing Cameron Brate, Charles Sims or Doug Martin suiting up.  So I guess maybe the Panthers will win this one for pride?  Perhaps?

Games That Don’t Matter: Watch Them if You Must, But Mark Your Calendars for Draft Day

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) - As a vicarious Ravens supporter, I gotta say that last-second loss to the Steelers on Sunday was really tough to swallow.  Now we end things here between two rivals with nothing to play for but bragging rights.  I guess since Cincy is way more banged up on offense and Baltimore has a great under-the-radar defense, the Ravens save a little face with this Week 17 whimperer.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3) - There isn't a game on this docket that took more of a nosedive in intrigue than this one after last week.  It could have been a winner-takes-all for the division and a ticket to the playoffs, but then the Titans whiffed against the Jaguars last week and Marcus Mariota was lost for the season.  I reckon the Texans would like for Tom Savage to get some practice reps for next week's wild card game though, so I suspect Houston will be playing this one for keeps.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5) - This might be a curtain call for Chuck Pagano and/or a revenge game for the Colts after that brutal loss to the Jaguars earlier this season in London.  Had they won that one, they could be playing for something this week, but nah.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-5) - So the Vikings officially Falcon'ed on us this season after doing a great imitation of the 2015 Broncos for the first few weeks.  Maybe they'll do something nice for the home crowd they've treated so miserably for the past several years and beat Matt Barkley & co. at home.

Buffalo Bills (-3.5) at New York Jets - Poor Todd Bowles.  I feel a lot sorrier for him than for the currently unemployed Rex Ryan, but there's no denying how bad the Jets are this year.  This might just be the worst game on the docket - one coach already fired, one about to be, E.J. Manuel starting for the Bills, Ryan Fitzpatrick for the Jets.  I guess I think there's a little Fitzmagic left in the tank for one last win for Bowles and hopefully a shot for him to try this coaching thing again with a less toxic locker room.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-4) - Note to Jason Garrett: Please, please, please take a page from the Titans and Raiders and rest your dang starters this week.  The Cowboys have nothing to play for, and the Eagles play a hard, physical style of defense, especially at home.  Here's to hoping we see a lot of Mark Sanchez and some New Year's cheer for that hungover home crowd in Philly.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) - The Steelers are likely resting their big three this week, so it's quite possible that the Browns will be able to double their win total on Sunday. But I still think Landry Jones and DeAngelo Williams can get some stuff done against the hapless Browns, so I'm going Steelers anyway.

Arizona Cardinals (-6) at Los Angeles Rams - Rams bad.  Cardinals good okay.

 

Lovely Lady Locks 

Based on my perfectly pedestrian 27 - 24 record last year, I think Kenny Rodgers would tell me to fold 'em in repeating this Lovely Lady Locks spread picks feature.  But I'm playing with Monopoly money, so I'm going to do it again!  Buyer beware.  For Week 17, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Giants +8 over Redskinks
• Seahawks -9.5 over 49ers
• Cardinals -6 over Rams

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 145 - 93 - 2
Against the Spread: 27 - 21

NFL Week 16 Picks

Dang!  The Christmas Eve NFL schedule gives me no wiggle room to slack off until Saturday, so I will take a stab at some on-time albeit likely not well thought-out picks.  Err, um, now that the truth serum has worn off, check out these never-in-doubt Week 16 picks that will foretell all of the playoff implications you'd normally wait until Tuesday to find out!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5) - Nothing like a good old-fashioned bloodsport rivalry to ring in the Christmas spirit on Sunday! Whoever wins this one controls their destiny with the AFC North, and so I've giving it Lady Blitz Game of the Week honors.  It's just hard to argue with Pittsburgh's offense when this roster is healthy, and their defense has really turned the corner in the second half of the season as well.  But don't fool yourself into thinking the Ravens will go quietly into the night.  These games have always been close no matter who has the better win-loss record going in, so that's all to say don't bet on this one.  I'm leaning Steelers at home though for the sake of the exercise.

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7) - Here's another heavy-weight battle in the playoff stakes.  A win for the Cowboys gives them the division, homefield advantage for all of January and permission to rest their workhorse in Zeke Elliott next week.  A win for the Lions meas a ticket to the playoffs, but either way, they'll probably have to beat the Packers next week to win the division.  So I'm going with my hunch that Detroit will have a hard time slowing down that Dallas ground game.  Their luck has to run out eventually with all of these 4th quarter miracles, right?

Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders (-3.5) - I felt great about picking the Colts last week despite the evidence that the Vikings' pass rush and return of Adrian Peterson might give them trouble.  Have you seen the third-string turnstiles that count for Minnesota's linemen?  But I can't see Indy having the same success against that other MVP-quality offensive line in Oakland.  And Khalil Mack should have quite the holiday feast on the Colts' tackles when they take the field.  At its best, this game will be a crazy shootout where the winner is the quarterback who gets the ball last, but Indy's offense has to be just about pitch perfect in my mind to make that happen.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-4) - Note to self: Arrowhead Stadium does not guarantee a Chiefs win these days apparently.  And honestly, I could see Kansas City struggle with a division rival that is on the ropes and desperate to stay in the playoff race.  As they reminded their colleagues last week, the Denver defense is still good enough to drag this team a long way, and that's always a threat for the inconsistent Chiefs offense.  But then there's the other side of the ball where KC has been bringing down the hammer and generating a ton of turnovers against everyone this season and the Broncos offense has been... collecting wads of turf in their helmet around the line of scrimmage.  So I'm hoping Chiefs in this one.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

New York Giants (-2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles - Did you know the Eagles have gone 2 - 9 since Week 4 including five straight losses in their last five games?  The deceptive thing here is that they've been in a fair number of those losses until the end including last week's noble but doomed gamble to win it all on a 2-point conversion in Baltimore.  So I don't love the Giants in this one, especially traveling on a short week, but by golly is that defense looking good.  I just don't see how Philly's sputtering offense is going to get it done in this one.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-3.5) - The wild card is Miami's to lose, and they'll be put to the test in the wintry environs of The Ralph this weekend.  Matt Moore has been a revelation for the Dolphins, and they've got a lot on the line against a somewhat lesser division rival here.  I guess I still like the Bills though given what will probably be brutal field conditions and Buffalo's ability to beat you from all directions on the ground with LeSean McCoy and Tyrod Taylor. 

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)  - It was about this time a month ago that the Packers looked done for after getting blown out by the Redskinks in prime time.  But then they got healthy on defense and remembered what Aaron Rodgers can do and now they're just a game back from the Lions in making their seventh consecutive playoff appearance.  Were they playing the Vikings a month ago, I'd probably pick against them, but Green Bay is shaping up to be a dangerous team in January if they can win out.  They shouldn't have much trouble with a Minnesota team undone by its cardboard stand-in offensive line in the latter part of this season.

Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers - Carolina is starting to look like the version of the team that we expected this year, even if there's just a teensy chance they can make the playoffs at this point.  They can still play for pride as a spoiler to Atlanta though, so I'm going to take my chances here and say the Panthers defense gets it done against that scary Falcons offense.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-8.5) - Seattle is a heavy favorite here after a disappointing season for the previous NFC Championship-contending Cardinals.  If Arizona has a shot, Carson Palmer is going to need to rely heavily on his speedy receivers to create mismatches while Earl Thomas contemplates retirement on the sideline.  As the Packers showed us just a couple weeks ago, the Seahawks are far from invincible right now.  Nevertheless, Arizona's just too inconsistent to waste a pick on right now.  Unless they win and then I regret writing this for 12 hours or so.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-16.5) - This game is almost guaranteed to be terrible, BUT never forget the gift that is sure to keep on giving during garbage time.

Tennessee Titans (-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars - The football gods should do us a solid and give the Titans the AFC South title this year.  Ain't nobody outside of the Houston sprawl begging for the Texans to ruin another wild card game this January.  So hopefully Tennessee can get it done against the Jaguars awkwardly playing out the string without Gus Bradley.  I'm putting the over/under on stadium attendance at a robust 6,000 on Saturday.

San Diego Chargers (-6) at Cleveland Browns - At some point, you really do have to marvel at the Factory of Sadness that is Cleveland sportsdom.  Sure, the Cavaliers pulled off one of the greatest underdog comebacks in NBA history and ended the longest championship drought a city has ever seen.  But how did the winds of fate respond?  By handing Believeland an agonizing 3 - 1 Indians collapse in the World Series only to be followed by what is in all likelihood an 0 - 16 Browns season.  Thank God for LeBron or this town would have run out of Xanax three months ago.

Washington Redskinks (-3) at Chicago Bears - I'm real tempted to take the Bears here.  They've been thisclose to winning more games with Matt Barkley at the helm but have come up just short in nearly every case.  They'll have their chance on the legs of Jordan Howard against a fairly generous Redskinks run defense.  On the other side though, I can see Kirk Cousins airing it out early and often to keep Washington's playoff hopes alive and hope some other chips fall in their favor.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3) - I'll be rooting my heart out for the Saints to thwart the Buccaneers' playoff chances.  But it's been a long time since playing in the Superdome has meant any kind of real advantage or since the Saints have been able to string more than a win or two together before falling flat again against a mediocre-to-good team.  Staying in the cocoon of low expectations where it's warm this time of year.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) - One of these teams is getting a real gift - the chance to win a game for the first time in at least six weeks.  The thing of it is, the only thing to be gained at this point is a better draft position, so who in the heck knows what ungodly smoldering heap of incompetence will result in a win here.  My best guess is that the Rams offense is bad enough to give the 49ers defense a chance.  But they're both really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really bad.

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-2) - Who's ready for the Tom Savage era in Houston?  It makes me super-nervous.  I may come to regret switching my pick from the Bengals.  But the Texans have been pretty dang good at home, and I could see their defense giving that hobbled Cincy squad some fits.  This game is going to be real boring though - get out there with your high school friends on Christmas Eve and drink some eggnog instead.

Lovely Lady Locks 

Based on my perfectly pedestrian 27 - 24 record last year, I think Kenny Rodgers would tell me to fold 'em in repeating this Lovely Lady Locks spread picks feature.  But I'm playing with Monopoly money, so I'm going to do it again!  Buyer beware.  For Week 16, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Lions +7 over Cowboys
• Packers -6.5 over Vikings
• Chargers -6 over Browns

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 136 - 86 - 2
Against the Spread: 26 - 19

NFL Week 15 Picks

We are getting down to the final stretch, and I can't think of another time when so many divisional races and playoff spots have still been up for grabs at this point in the season.  Only the 11 - 2 Cowboys have officially clinched a playoff spot, though I reckon the Patriots won't be too far behind.  But elsewhere, there are dead-heat races for division titles in the AFC South, AFC West and NFC South and at least ten winning teams on the wild card bubble with some big-time games left to play.  Let's look into the crystal ball to see who might survive into January, shall we?

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

New England Patriots (-3) at Denver Broncos - The top seed in the AFC and a wild card bid are at stake in our Lady Blitz Game of the Week!  And this could be a lot closer than you might think.  For one, Tom Brady is 2 - 7 all time at Mile High, lest we forget how last season ended for this heavy Super Bowl favorite.  Moreover, the Pats are a little more porous on defense these days without Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins in the mix, which is exactly what the Broncos offense needs to stay in this one.  Still, if there's kryptonite to dole out in this one, it's Denver's run defense, which has fallen way back to Earth compared to last year.  I say the Pats run right over them with human wrecking ball LeGarrette Blount, while the Broncos' run game continues to be non-existent on the other side.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) - The Titans have proven to be no slouch this season, and if they can get their running game going early against the Chiefs, they've got a chance here.  Their biggest challenge will be protecting the football given that Kansas City leads the league in turnovers and feeds off of the crowd noise at Arrowhead to create confusion and rattle young QBs like Marcus Mariota.  I think KC's defense plays some hero ball here and clinches a playoff spot in front of a rabid fanbase.

Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-4) - This is a hugely important game for both of these teams as the divisional and wild card races heat up around them.  A loss for either team could put them on the wild card bubble with some tough games left in the final two weeks of the season.  A win will give one of them a much-needed cushion against all of those wild card contenders and keep their division title hopes alive.  So when push comes to shove, I really like how New York's defense is playing these days, and with Matt Stafford dealing with a banged up throwing hand, there's far less room for error for Detroit in a tough road game here.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals - Seems like the Steelers might want to keep Antonio Brown under lock and key, considering how the Bengals have ruined his postseason opportunities these past two years.  This may not be the prettiest or most meaningful game on the slate since Cincy has nothing to play for, but there aren't two teams in the NFL that hate each other more right now, so I expect it to be brutal and competitive.  From a karma and talent standpoint, the Steelers ought to win.  We'll see.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-7) - This is a dangerous game for the Cowboys with the Giants suddenly lurking after that series sweep.  You don't need me to tell you how phenomenal the Buccaneers defense has become after knocking off playoff contenders like the Chiefs and Seahawks and offensive juggernauts like the Chargers and Saints this past month.  And that Giants game last week may just give the Bucs a blueprint for keeping Dallas' offense in check too, meaning "Make Dak Prescott throw the ball a lot."  A Cowboys win may be wishful thinking on my part at this point - I've lost count of how many times I've rolled by eyes during all of these Jameis Winston character inflation pieces in recent weeks.  But Tampa's defense isn't great against the run and Winston may have some back-breaking turnovers stored up for this prime time affair, so I'm hoping Dallas can take full advantage and push the Bucs out of the soft focus human interest business this week.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens (-6) - That was a tough loss for the Ravens last week, but I think they've evolved into a pretty good team with a great defense this season, and they are deserving of a wild card spot in my mind if they can get it.  They should be able to keep hope alive this week when the Eagles come to town.  Philly is a ghastly 1 - 6 on the road and without a key offensive and special teams weapon in Darren Sproles. 

Oakland Raiders (-3) at San Diego Chargers - A month ago, this might have been a really intriguing game, but it looks a bit different now with the Chargers taking a step back and losing some vital talent in Melvin Gordon and Joey Bosa.  Not only that, the Raiders are coming off of extra rest which should have given Derek Carr more time to get back to form after the worst game of his career.  This is an important game for Oakland to rebound mentally, and I think they'll take full advantage against a banged up, rudderless, soon-to-be-non-San Diego squad.

Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskinks (-6.5) - A.k.a., the Josh Norman revenge game.  Not that Norman has much to prove after watching his former team tank to an inexplicable degree this season.  I can't say I feel great about the Redskinks as a postseason contender this year, but they are pretty darn good at home while the Panthers have been a miserable 1 - 5 on the road so far this season.  With Norman having a lot of intel on Carolina's tendencies and soft spots on offense and some good matchups for Kirk Cousins to exploit with the Panthers' secondary, I give Washington the edge here.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-16) - Let the social media record show that I correctly picked the Seahawks, whose chartreuse nightmare was more than enough to overpower the Jeff Fisher-less Rams.

Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at New York Jets - Not a lot to love under center for either of these teams, who will be quietly doing football things on Saturday night when no one's watching.  But Matt Moore isn't the worst backup, and the Jets secondary will surely make it easy on him.

Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at Chicago Bears - Lost in the mix of this miserable Bears season is how good their defense has been.  It likely won't be enough to overcome the Packers on their hot streak, but I'm not sure Green Bay is going to be able to put up more than 3 - 4 scores on 'em.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-5.5) - Lawdy.  I think it's fair to say this Texans team could be worse than the 7 - 8 - 1 Panthers who made the postseason a couple years back.  And the only reason they'll be in the mix in January is because of powderpuff games like this one against the Jaguars.  Houston is currently 4 - 0 against the AFC South and 3 - 6 against everyone else.  Yuck.

Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-10) - Going to go out on a limb here and say the Browns aren't going to win this week either.

Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-4) - Although these two teams are technically still in the playoff hunt, who can believe in them after all of the bad losses they've had this season?  This feels like a coin flip game to me, so I'm going on a hunch that the Colts will do that thing where they looked really bad last week so now they'll win so that when you think they're good again in a week, they'll lose.

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (-3) - The Wasted Potential Bowl will kick off in mid-afternoon on Sunday.  Pretty sure the Saints can one up the Cardinals on that front.

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (-13.5) - Yowza - I'll let the point spread speak for itself on this one.

Lovely Lady Locks 

Based on my perfectly pedestrian 27 - 24 record last year, I think Kenny Rodgers would tell me to fold 'em in repeating this Lovely Lady Locks spread picks feature.  But I'm playing with Monopoly money, so I'm going to do it again!  Buyer beware.  For Week 15, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Buccaneers +7 over Cowboys
• Raiders -3 over Chargers
• Cardinals -3 over Saints

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 123 - 83 - 2
Against the Spread: 24 - 18

NFL Week 14 Picks

Ah Week 14 - normally I'd be starting to get post-NFL-season anxiety around this time of year, but given how much is still up in the air with the playoff picture, there's some good seeding turf to settle on the docket this week.  Let's get to it!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-3) - When's the last time a non-Thanksgiving or opening night game made for good Thursday night football?!?!  This is makes for a big-time rumble between two red hot divisional rivals in our Lady Blitz Game of the Week!  And given how they look leaps and bounds more balanced than the Broncos at this point, this could ultimately be for a whole lot of marbles - the AFC West title and possibly a first-round bye.  In my heart of hearts, I have no inkling as to who will win.  The Raiders are relentless on offense even when they're down, and the Chiefs just seem to come up with all of the clutch plays at the right time, along with homefield advantage for this one.  So I'm going with my heart and picking Big Red at Arrowhead.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-6) - I know it was just the Jets on Monday night, but boy did the Colts look good on both sides of the ball.  They held Gang Green to just a field goal until Bryce Petty's garbage time, and well, you know about Andrew Luck.  Anyway, Indy should have beaten the Texans in their first matchup, and given how Luck is trending up while Brock Osweiler continues his slide down the starting QB mortal coil, I think the Colts get payback and a big edge  this week in tightening their grip on the AFC South.

Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Green Bay Packers - Depending on what the Frozen Tundra looks like in this one, we could have a crazy-fun shootout or a defensive slog in the trenches.  And that makes this game extremely hard to pick since I think the former conditions favor the Packers while the latter would give Seattle a defensive edge at the line of scrimmage, especially with Earl Thomas out for the year.  Between these two teams with top-level talent but cracks around the edges, I guess I'm going Green Bay.  Thomas is simply instrumental to Seattle's defense, and Aaron Rodgers has to like his improved chances of carving up that secondary without him.

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at New York Giants - Dallas has already locked up a playoff spot, and the Giants are knocking on the door with as good a record as any other non-Cowboys team in the NFC.  All things being equal, who can pick against Dallas at this point?  They might get a little more room to operate their offense (like they need it) now that the Giants' Jason Pierre-Paul is out for the year, and New York has yet to beat a quality team since... the Cowboys in Week 1.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-7) - This looks to be a solid defense vs. offense prime time affair that I hope will be more than a breezy Pats blowout.  The Ravens are one of the few teams who consistently give them a hard time in Foxborough, and I reckon Baltimore is grateful that they won't have to factor Rob Gronkowski into their defensive schemes.  Nevertheless, New England's just going to keep steamrolling everyone until they don't, so I'll take a not-so-risky chance that they win here.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-1) - It's purely a function of the work week slog that I have been posting my picks on the weekend lately, but it has its benefits.  Case in point: I really wish I knew whether Paxton Lynch or Trevor Siemian will be starting for the Broncos on Sunday because that might change my pick.  So I'm lightly penciling in the Titans and sitting on my hands on the assumption Lynch starts and the bye week treats Tennessee well with their fancy cleats and all.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) at Buffalo Bills - Boy does this feel like a potential trap game for the Steelers.  They handled a Giants team short on offense last week, but the Bills are a whole 'nother animal with a multi-faceted ground attack.  As with the Green Bay game above, this could come down to weather with snow possible on Sunday.  I'm going to take a risk and go with my hunch on this one that a little help from Mother Nature could go a long way to boost a decent Bills team that is hell on wheels when it runs the ball over a better but not dominant Steelers squad.

Washington Redskinks (-1) at Philadelphia Eagles - It looks like the Eagles have officially lost their mojo and become closer to the 4 - 12 version I envisioned long ago... with Sam Bradford at the helm of course.  They still only have one loss against a desperate Packers team at home, so there's a chance they rebound here in the friendly confines of Philly, but I think Washington has a few too many offensive weapons for the Eagles to keep pace with their own sputtering offense.

Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins (-1.5) - This feels like a game ripe for some fluky stuff.  Both of these teams have had glimmers of greatness here and there during the season, but they just can't seem to sustain their success when the going gets tough.  The Dolphins got smacked down by a terrific Ravens defense last week, and Arizona obviously has some chops to keep them at bay here.  But in their early kickoff road games so far this year, the Cardinals have gone 0 - 4 with a minus-50 point differential.  That's real bad.  Can Bruce Arians help them learn from their eastern road trip blues or are they destined to fall flat against a Miami team that most of us don't quite believe in?  I guess I'll give 'em a shot - maybe Joe Flacco exposed some things in that Dolphins secondary that Carson Palmer can feast on.

San Diego Chargers at Carolina Panthers (-1) - So these teams are already eliminated from the playoffs.  That doesn't mean they won't have some entertaining moments in this meaningless Sunday afternoon tussle.  It's hard to pick this one not knowing if the Panthers defense will be something more than the shell of itself that played last Sunday.  Plus, Ron Rivera's respectability necktie garbage is the sort of thing that can sour a locker room real quick when the losses are piling up.  So I guess I think the Chargers are a little better having languished at the bottom of the league's toughest division this year.  They would have had the AFC South locked up by now if they could relocate... err, except probably not in L.A.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) - I had a bad feeling about the Saints/Lions game last week and I let my fragile hope and optimism get the better of me.  Weirdly, New Orleans is still in the hunt here - sweeping the Bucs is the bare minimum needed to keep it that way.  But the Saints have been agonizingly consistent in their inconsistency these last three seasons.  The inevitable disappointment of this season should be no different, and they won't have any room for error against a Tampa team that is playing extremely confident football right now.  So yeah, back to the comforting cocoon of low expectations.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Cincinnati Bengals (-6) at Cleveland Browns - This could be the first time those Heisman hopefuls are dreading winning the trophy - that puts them one step closer to landing in Cleveland in the 2017 draft.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-8) - So the Lions are going to win the NFC North in all likelihood... if they don't lose to the Bears again.

Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars - Put this one on trap game alert too.  The Jaguars aren't quite as bad on defense as you think, and the Vikings will take a bit of a hit with safety Harrison Smith out indefinitely.  Counterpoint: it's the Jaguars.

New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) - So the 49ers might just win their first game since Week 1 (!) when they square off with Jets rookie QB Bryce Petty this weekend.  What a time to be alive.  It's not a sure bet if New York can get its running game going against that atrocious San Fran defense, but I imagine they'll be okay loading up the box and daring Petty to throw most of the time.

Atlanta Falcons (-6) at Los Angeles Rams - That was pretty fun watching Matt Ryan gift 9 points to the Chiefs last week!  I don't suppose we'll have such luck when he squares off against Jared Goff this weekend, however.  One potential upset factor to keep your eyes on though: how will the Falcons' line hold up against that mean Rams pass rush with LT Jake Matthews possibly sitting out?

Lovely Lady Locks 

Based on my perfectly pedestrian 27 - 24 record last year, I think Kenny Rodgers would tell me to fold 'em in repeating this Lovely Lady Locks spread picks feature.  But I'm playing with Monopoly money, so I'm going to do it again!  Buyer beware.  For Week 14, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Ravens +7 over Patriots
• Bengals -6 over Browns
• Bears +8 over Lions

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 113 - 78 - 2
Against the Spread: 22 - 17

NFL Week 13 Picks

Hey look - some lucky Week 13 picks!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) - We've got a rapidly improved defense versus a premiere big-play offense in this Lady Blitz Game of the Week! To me, the intrigue here is whether the Giants can rise to the occasion against one of the toughest offensive opponents they've faced yet in a hostile environment. New York has swept its last six opponents with a collective win-loss percentage of 0.308, but they're about to hit a final stretch where their opponents are currently at 0.642. I might change my mind about these guys if they can keep Le'Veon Bell and friends grounded on Sunday, but I'm envisioning this game as the start of the "what's wrong with the Giants?" narrative we'll be hearing in about two weeks.

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons (-5.5) - There's no time like the present for Justin Houston to get back to form for the Chiefs. Among many fantastic performances last week on both sides of the ball, his might have been most crucial for a team's playoff stakes today.  The question is, can KC keep that league-best Falcons offense in check?  It will be tough, and if I was going to play it safe at this point, I'd go Atlanta.  But I'm going to swing for the fences on the chance that Houston anchors another big-time pass rushing performance and that the Chiefs' offense opens up now that the Falcons' top cornerback Desmond Trufant is out for the year.

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) - These aren't exactly the most exciting AFC playoff hopefuls in the bunch, but there might not be a higher-stakes game for both opponents on the docket this week.  Caveat: they'll still have to hope a couple of those AFC West dynamos fall flat before January rolls around.  Anyway, it's hard to argue against the Dolphins on a six-win streak, but they'll be coming to Baltimore with a pretty banged up offensive line and a hobbled DeVante Parker.  Against a defense as good as the Ravens', that's a pretty big uphill battle for the aggressively mediocre Ryan Tannehill.

Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders (-3) - This here could be a sneaky-good game with lots of disruptive linemen going after some of the most explosive offensive playmakers in the league this season. Although I'm not sure they can win out the rest of the season with three huge divisional road games coming up, the Raiders are the real deal and should be able to outpace a dynamic Bills offense in this one.  If Khalil Mack has another game like last week, it's game over for Tyrod Taylor and friends.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Minnesota Vikings - Let the social media record show that I correctly picked those invincible Cowboys, even though the Vikings had a valiant defensive stand.  Poor Vikings.

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-6) - Oh how I'm dreading the potentially agonizing heartbreak of this game.  Five of the Saints' six losses were in one-possession games where they absolutely blew it in the fourth quarter, and the Lions are unrivaled in improbable fourth-quarter comebacks this season. Sigh - just hoping Drew Brees' offense can bail us out on this one.

Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers (-6) - Welp, it looks like the Pack is back again.  Green Bay made some brilliant adjustments in that formidable road game against the Eagles last week, and Houston's strengths and weaknesses mirror those of Philly's in a lot of ways.  I reckon Aaron Rodgers will keep spreading the ball on quick snaps, and the Packers' defense will sell out on the run to force Brock Osweiler to keep throwing during his plain awful quarterbacking season.  And for a cheesehead bonus, Jadeveon Clowney will also be sitting this one out, so Green Bay could be putting up some serious points this time tomorrow.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Diego Chargers (-3.5) - It's hard to knock the Buccaneers after two impressive wins in a row against the Chiefs at Arrowhead and the postseason-darling Seahawks. Truthfully, I'm still trying to figure them out.  The defense has been on fire for the past three weeks, holding opponents to an average of just over 7 points per game, and Jameis Winston is trending upward in his efficiency under center the second half of the season.  I guess you can tell by my pick that I still think this is a little fluky, but this time around, I wouldn't be surprised if the Bucs steal one from the Chargers.  I might even have to start picking them if so.

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-7) - As trivial as it is, I'm loving the karma beef between Richard Sherman and Cam Newton right now.  It's fitting for one of the better non-divisional rivalries in the NFL these days since you know both teams want to win this one more than just about any game left on the regular season schedule.  The Panthers might as well throw in every trick they have in the book here since they're on the road with very short-handed on defense, but I can't see it being enough against a Seattle team that's getting healthy and should have room to operate on offense in this one.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots (-13.5) - The AFC playoff race just got a lot more interesting, but unfortunately it's because the Gronk is out for good in another injury-shortened season.  Good thing the Pats have some cushion here against the Rams to figure out whatever crazy scheme adjustments they'll make before January.

Denver Broncos (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars - It's Paxton Lynch time again for the Broncos, and he should have a pretty nice ramp up against the Jaguars this weekend.  It's not that I expect Lynch to be flawless against Jacksonville's defense - it's that he should have the cushion to avoid risky plays given that the Jaguars offense will be without a bunch of playmakers including Allen Hurns, Julius Thomas and Chris Ivory.  Expect the Denver D to feast.

Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) - Boy have the Eagles been perplexing this season.  Just when I think I have them figured out as a good or bad team, they make a pivot in the opposite direction the next week.  So after two bad losses these past two weeks, they'll probably look awesome for a nanosecond against the Bengals.  Maybe.

San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) at Chicago Bears - With the Browns taking a really weird Week 13 bye, these two teams will have themselves a cage match for the rights to the bottom of the barrel.  It should be illegal even to bet on a game like this since both franchises could have quite the ulterior motive to tank for a better draft spot.  But if I'm guessing this one straight, I'm going Bears.  The weather looks to be wintry and miserable tomorrow and there ain't a worse rushing defense in the league than the 49ers' by a very, very large margin.

Washington Redskinks at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) - I'm starting to suspect my Cardinals NFC Champ pick might not pan out this year.  The Cards defense has been pretty darn good at home, which is what they'll need to have a shot against the Redskinks, but they won't have the Honey Badger in this one, and I'm thinking that will give Washington a decent shot with arguably the deepest receiving corps in the league.

Indianapolis Colts (-2) at New York Jets - This here looks to be a shootout, so I'm going Andrew Luck over Ryan Fitzpatrick.  Tough choice...

Lovely Lady Locks 

Based on my perfectly pedestrian 27 - 24 record last year, I think Kenny Rodgers would tell me to fold 'em in repeating this Lovely Lady Locks spread picks feature.  But I'm playing with Monopoly money, so I'm going to do it again!  Buyer beware.  For Week 13, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Lions +6 over Saints
• Packers -6 over Texans
• Rams +13.5 over Patriots

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 102 - 74 - 2
Against the Spread: 20 - 16