NFL Week 12 Picks

Happy Turkey Day unto you, dear reader!  Here are my futile picks for Week 12!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

New England Patriots (-3) at Denver Broncos - Rex and Eli might have given the Patriots a scare, but this Lady Blitz Game of the Week may mark one of the last real threats this 10 - 0 team has left on the schedule.  We won't get the annual Manning-Brady Bowl--which sadly we may have already seen the last of--but we will get one of the very best offenses facing one of the very best defenses in the league this year. Given the attrition in Brady's arsenal and the defensive wrinkles the Bills threw at this team on Monday night, the Broncos have as good a shot as any of keeping this game within reach. They'll need good judgment from Brock Osweiler and a heavy dose of Ronnie Hillman to do it.  But I've gone Pats for ten straight weeks and gotten ten straight wins out of it. It ain't broke, and I'm not fixing it.

Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys (-1) - Now onto our second marquee matchup with an undefeated team. The Panthers would probably rather face the Matt Cassel-led Cowboys than the Tony Romo-led version, especially since this will be Romo's first home game since returning from a broken collarbone.  Despite the momentum talk for Dallas though, Carolina has looked simply spectacular on both sides of the ball for the past month - I'm not fixing this one either.

New York Giants (-2.5) at Washington Redskinks - Sadly, this 5-5 Giants / 4-6 Redskinks battle for first place in the NFC East constitutes the next closest thing to a barn-burner this weekend, though there are some decent enough games below to sip eggnog over while trying not to say anything inappropriate to Aunt Sally.  There's a first time for everything on any given Sunday, but please note that Kirk Cousins has two touchdowns to eight interceptions and a passer rating of 48.6 all-time against the Giants.  I think the G-Men give themselves a little bit more cushion in this always-weird division... at least that's what they want me to think.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks (-4) - Seattle's defense hasn't been quite as vaunted these days as we've come to expect, so this game could be more fun that it ought to be.  Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant will certainly try to keep doing Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant things while the Seahawks will try to run their show through the ascendant Thomas Rawls on the ground.  If Rawls can unleash Beast Mode 2.0, I like the 'Hawks getting back to form in time for the playoffs... perhaps.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions (-2.5) - Get your Bloody Mary revving for the first game of a busy Thanksgiving slate.  It could be pretty sloppy and low-scoring, but what else are you going to watch?  I'm not feeling great about either of these teams - the Eagles are back to dinking and dunking with the fairly inaccurate Sam Bradford, and he won't have Ryan Mathews or Zach Ertz to help carry the load.  The Lions are in nothing-to-lose mode after axing most of the front office a few weeks back.  So I'm going with the home team - they don't deserve to be embarrassed every Thanksgiving, right?

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-8.5) - So you're telling me Aaron Rodgers is still a thing?  Okay then.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) - I want a refund on the flowers I sent to the Chiefs' funeral last month when Jamaal Charles went down for the season.  Don't get me wrong, Charles is a rare talent that this team would give anything to have healthy should they make it to the playoffs, but they are playing their best football right now.  KC has held its last four opponents to less than two touchdowns, and between Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware, they are getting plenty done on offense.  I just can't see the sputtering Bills' offense having much luck at Arrowhead on Sunday.

Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-1) - It's been a tale of two seasons for the Falcons.  After starting out 5 - 0, they've had a miserable 1 - 4 slide against some downright terrible teams.  I don't really know what's going on with these guys, but given how their offense has struggled lately, they could have a hard time getting back on track against a solid Vikings defense.  I gotta go with the more consistent team on this one - a win for Minnesota here would be big for their playoff cushion.

St. Louis Rams at Cincinnati Bengals (-9) - It's been a tough couple of weeks for the Bengals, and if Cincy fans should have any reason for heartburn this week--other than that curiously famous chili--it's that the Rams have a very tough defense like those of the Cardinals and Texans.  What the Rams don't have though, is a solid option at quarterback.  It's sad on multiple levels that St. Louis felt better about leaving a clearly concussed Case Keenum in the game last week rather than send in Nick Foles, who's started in professional football games.  Very recently.  So I think the Bengals will get back on track with this one at home and not in prime time.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-3.5) - Here's a coin-flipper that might be a last gasp for a wild card for one of these division rivals.  I don't like having to pick this one because so much depends on which versions of these two teams show up.  They've both looked like well-rounded contenders at times and like mistake-riddled also-rans other times.  So maybe the Jets can turn things back around at home this week with more commitment to the ground game and better pressure in the pocket on defense.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Oakland Raiders (-2) at Tennessee Titans - If the current weather forecast for Sunday holds, this could be an old-school smashmouth football game in the mud.  That could definitely favor the Titans' defense, assuming they can run the ball effectively enough too.  By the way, Tennessee hasn't won a game at home since October of last year - any home fans braving the elements deserve a small but real victory, right?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts (-3) - The Colts have been surprisingly steady in Matt Hasselbeck's care this year.  And truthfully, Hasselbeck's play has not slipped all that much even though he's been relegated to a backup role these past few years.  Although the Buccaneers have looked better lately, I'm going to check my ageism and hope Indy keeps getting it done.

New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans (-3) - I'm done jinxing the Saints for now.  I expect New Orleans' defense to get at least a minor coach-change bump this week, but it'll still be tough for Drew Brees to keep pace on the road against a much better defense while DeAndre Hopkins torches the Saints secondary.

San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4) - Hey Philip, how do you feel about having to throw the ball to Stevie Johnson and undrafted friends these days?

Arizona Cardinals (-10.5) at San Francisco 49ers - You do know Blaine Gabbert is still playing in this one, right?

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-2.5) - For anyone who was asking themselves if Baltimore's season could get any worse before last weekend, be sure to go to confession this week.  Joe Flacco and Justin Forsett are out for the rest of this season to forget, but few things are more terrifying for the rest of the AFC than Ozzie Newsome with a ton of high draft picks, just sayin'.

Lovely Lady Locks 

I’m trying my hand at three points-based picks every week that I think are locks. I hope to count my Monopoly money by the end of the season and will keep you posted along with my overall picks record.  I even went 6 - 0 over the past two weeks, just enough to have too much confidence in this silly crapshoot.  For Week 12, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Panthers -1 over Cowboys
• Rams +9 over Bengals
• Browns -2.5 over Ravens

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 99 - 61
Against the Spread: 17 - 16

NFL Week 11 Picks

It's late - let's get to the picks!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) - Two mighty-balanced playoff contenders will square off this weekend in our Lady Blitz Game of the Week! Andy Dalton and Carson Palmer are both having themselves a season, but they'll have to get past two defenses that love pocket pressure and takeaways. I could see a shootout as easily as I could see another 10 - 6 slog. Despite their offensive woes last week, I still think the Bengals are fine, but it's very, very hard to win in Arizona these days, and I see Cincy taking another loss after a great 8 - 0 start.


Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-1) - My brain is having a very, very hard time envisioning how the Packers could drop their fourth straight, and yet the odds are against them.  Aaron Rodgers' throwing shoulder is injured, Eddie Lacy/Richard Starks and the Packers' o-line are also banged up and slumping, and Green Bay just hasn't been good against big physical defenses like that of the Vikings.  Adrian Peterson always seems to take their lunch money when his team is hosting too.  It wouldn't surprise me that much to see Rodgers turn things around in a big divisional game, but I'm going with the more recent tea leaves.

Denver Broncos (-1) at Chicago Bears - I ended up eking out a good pick last week when I predicted Rex Ryan would have his revenge against his old Jets team that looked way better on paper.  Now John Fox gets to host the team that sent him packing this past offseason after he only took the Broncos to four straight division titles and playoff berths - one of those with Tim Tebow.  Honestly, benching Peyton Manning is likely an upgrade from Denver's performance to this point, so it won't make things any easier on the Bears.  But Chicago is starting to play well, and Fox knows how to poke holes in the defense he built himself.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-7) - Down Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman, Tom Brady has a bigger challenge than usual that long-time nemesis Rex Ryan will try to exploit to the best of his abilities.  As much as I love a good upset, picking against the Pats at home is a fruitless exercise 95% of the time.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Washington Redskinks at Carolina Panthers (-7) - Welp Kirk Cousins, last weekend sure was fun for you.  But these Panthers are going to be a bit harder to dump of 40-yard screen passes on.  And Carolina looks like it'll get closer to that undefeated 15 - 1 season everyone's been dreaming about.

Dallas Cowboys (-1) at Miami Dolphins - Props to Tony Romo for a great tweet about his return to the field after the reeling Cowboys have dropped seven straight but are still somehow only three games back in the NFC East.  As much as we enjoy Romo derping around from time to time, he gives Dallas a whole new outlook on these last seven weeks.  The Dolphins could provide a nice opening act on the comeback tour.

Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons (-5.5) - I'm not sure what to think of the Falcons these days.  After starting the year 5 - 0, they've lost to three really bad teams and beat another one by just three points.  But they have a much higher ceiling in my mind than the Matt Hasselbeck-led Colts, and I have to think Dan Quinn/Kyle Shanahan were able to make some adjustments on the bye week to get both sides of the ball back on track.  Quinn certainly has a lot to atone for after that abysmal field goal call in San Francisco not too long ago.

New York Jets (-3) at Houston Texans - People warned me of this day: I officially declare J.J. Watt annoying.  Between appearing in roughly every commercial ever and beefing with some of the lamest quarterbacks in the league like Andy Dalton and Zach Mettenberger, Watt has gone from folk-hero-non-QB-MVP-favorite to peak Biff Tannen pretty quickly.  In non-high school related reasons for going against the Texans, Houston is susceptible to the run and Ryan Fitzpatrick is pretty familiar with this team, so I gotta go Jets.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at San Diego Chargers - I might come to regret this one.  I have no good reason to do it, but I really want to pick the Chargers.  Despite the 2 - 7 record, Philip Rivers has one of the highest passer ratings in the league right now, and his team continues to lose by razor-thin margins that are largely the defense's fault.  But he'll have a total skeleton crew to throw to on Sunday with Keenan Allen and Malcolm Floyd out and that makes me a little too nervous to go for it.  Go Chiefs!

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) - This week was karazee so I didn't get my picks out at their usually scheduled time on Thursday.  But let the Twitter record show that I picked Jacksonville without thinking very much about this terrible, terrible travesty of a matchup that happens twice a year for some reason.  And let's pretend that unmitigated sartorial disaster didn't happen either.

Oakland Raiders at Detroit Lions (-1) - Um, Raiders?  They haz offense.

St. Louis Rams at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) - Without a doubt, this has been the worst Ravens season in the Harbaugh-Flacco era.  But given that the opposing Rams had the pleasure of choosing between Nick Foles and Case Keenum under center this week, Baltimore's beleaguered defense might just catch a break.  Finally.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) - Between Jameis Winston and Mark Sanchez, the quarterback derp levels should be pretty high in this one.  The Eagles defense is good at cleaning up on derps though, so Philly it is.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-12.5) - Blaine Gabbert is going to lead an NFL offense on the road in Seattle.  That should give the Legion of Boom more confidence than they've had in a while.

Lovely Lady Locks 

I’m trying my hand at three points-based picks every week that I think are locks. I hope to count my Monopoly money by the end of the season and will keep you posted along with my overall picks record.  But really, I think we've just learned that gambling is a bad thing.  For Week 11, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Cowboys -1 over Dolphins
• Panthers -7 over Redskinks
• Chiefs -3 over Chargers

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 91 - 55
Against the Spread: 14 - 16

NFL Week 10 Awards: Twilight Zone Edition

Every now and then, one of those weeks in the NFL come along that is so bizarre, it just becomes a mockery of common sense.  I mean, look at this bloodbath of picks on ESPN.  Anyway, in lieu of the normal awards format, here are all of the things that deserve the Twilight Zone Award for making this week so, so weird:

• The Lions Beat the Packers at Lambeau for the First Time Since 1991.

•  If You're Colorblind, the Jets Might Have Actually Won This Week.

•  If You Know Anything About Officiating, the Ravens Actually Won This Week.

• The Texans Turned Back the Clock to 2012 on Themselves and the Bungles, er, Bengals.

• Peyton Manning Managed to Both Break the All-Time Passing Yardage Record and Earn a QB Rating of Zero.

•  Kirk Cousins Managed a Perfect Passer Rating... But It Was Against the Saints.

• So long, Wolfman!

• Underdogs Went 10 - 4 This Week and Road Teams Went 11 - 3.

•  Patriots-Giants Proved We Still Have No Idea What a Catch Is.

•  Rhonda Rousey Is No Longer Unbeatable.

•  And Somehow, Mario Chalmers Has Won Over the People of Memphis in a Weekend After Doing This To Us in 2008.

• Full Disclosure: I could not bring myself to link to that terrible, terrible basketball event so I give you kittens instead.
  

NFL Week 10 Picks

The second half of the season is upon us, and I've got some serious catching up to do to chase my season-best picks record.  So without further adieu, a week of tentative guessing and a Hail Mary or two...

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

New England Patriots (-7) at New York Giants - Can the red-hot Patriots overcome the Giants who've been a thorn in their side since February 2008? That is the question for our Lady Blitz game of the week. I for one would love to see a sailing Eli Manning pass fall backwards into Odell Beckham's hands for the game-clinching score, but I'm going to be a chicken and pick the Patriots because, well, they should win this one. But I recommend the Giants look at game film from that wild Arkansas-Ole Miss rumble last weekend for inspiration.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-2.5) - It's a vengeance week all around in the Meadowlands where Rex Ryan will return to face his old team in prime time tonight.  On paper, the Jets are the far better team and this constitutes my wildly misguided pick for the week.  But Rex knows this opponent and venue arguably better than even Todd Bowles at this point, and I think he'll throw in the kitchen sink if it means walking out with a literal and moral victory.  Just a hunch.

Minnesota Vikings at Oakland Raiders (-3) - These Raiders... these Raiders are, um, fun to watch.  Like seriously.  Like I want them to take the AFC South's spot in the playoffs.  And the Vikings continue to impress with a surprising 6 - 2 start.  In the end, I like Oakland at home getting it done with Derek Carr and Amari Cooper, assuming Coop plays.  If not, Minnesota's got a great shot and keeping this one close enough and in the mud.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-3) - This is a huge game for two division rivals that might be competing for one playoff spot when all is said and done.  They're both coming off of a bye too, which means more rest, more preparation, and a razor-thin margin for error.  It's hard to bet against the Seahawks at home, but with two weeks to scheme, I like Bruce Arians over Pete Carroll.  #secondwildlymisguidedpick

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Carolina Panthers (-5.5) at Tennessee Titans - This week marks Marcus Mariota's third matchup against a former Heisman QB this season.  I expect it to be a low-scoring affair between two solid defenses, but the Panthers should eventually overpower the Titans with experience, balance and everything going their way these days.

Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams (-7.5) - So the Bears are officially better than I thought.  They have yet to win a game by more than three points, but they've been in it to the end for the past five weeks.  Still, given how hard the Rams are to beat at home and how they should benefit from Chicago's generous defense, I like St. Louis in this one.

Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) - The Dan Campbell honeymoon is officially over while the Eagles have been eyeing the top seed in the NFC East.  I still don't think Philly is all that reliable week-to-week, but with Ryan Mathews making a strong case to be the lead back and Sam Bradford looking vaguely alive, the Eagles could still turn the corner big time here.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-6.5) - I reckon the Chiefs felt a ray of hope watching the Broncos notch their first loss of the season Sunday night. The Colts were able to find some offense with their scrambling quarterback and a bigger commitment to the ground game - two things Kansas City does pretty well on offense.  I think they'll need another sub-par game from Manning to have a shot in the fourth, but it's possible.  Still, beating the Broncos at Mile High is no easy task and one the Chiefs haven't accomplished since Tim Tebow was under center.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-11.5) - The Packers might not look like world-beaters after two tough losses in as many weeks, but to paraphrase the most charming tourism video of all time, at least they're not Detroit.  They're not Detroit!

Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) - I wish someone would actually release a Kraken off the gulf coast of Florida to drag Greg Hardy and Jameis Winston into the sea, never to be heard from again.  Looking at you, Liam Neeson.  Until that day, we must sit idly and attempt to predict how many times groups of grown men will transport an oblong ball across a painted line during a 60-minute time frame.  I would like for Dez Bryant and Darren McFadden to do that thing.

New Orleans Saints (-1) at Washington Redskinks - Rob Ryan has turned Drew Brees into Sisyphus, and it's real sad.  They can still beat the Redskinks with some interception generosity from Kirk Cousins, but that doesn't mean I didn't pick the guy up on waivers for my fantasy team this weekend.  Hater or realist?

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5) - Even though he was a Saints-killer for so many years, I love DeAngelo Williams and have been thrilled to see him mow down everything in sight as the next man up on the Steelers roster.  Expect him to build on his Comeback of the Year resume against the Browns' woeful run defense.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) - Don't we all kind of want to see the Jaguars go to the playoffs at 6 - 10?  The Ravens coming off of their bye at home probably won't help, but imagine the levels of acid reflux in those NFL and network executive suites if this becomes a real possibility.

Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-10.5) - In an effort to make this Monday night game remotely interesting, remember that the Texans have crushed the Bengals' dreams of winning a playoff game twice in the past four years.  It's just the kind of thing Cincy could fall for during an unbelievable 8 - 0 run... But these aren't those Texans and those aren't these Bengals.

Lovely Lady Locks 

I’m trying my hand at three points-based picks every week that I think are locks. I hope to count my Monopoly money by the end of the season and will keep you posted along with my overall picks record.  But really, I think we've just learned that gambling is a bad thing.  Also, I am the expendable income kiss of death. For Week 10, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Panthers -5.5 over Titans
• Chiefs +6.5 over Broncos
• Bears +7.5 over Rams

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 86 - 46
Against the Spread: 11 - 16

NFL Week 9 Awards

It's time to bestow fake hardware to the winners and losers of Week 9!

The "No More" Means "Not Really" Award: Jerry Jones
I should preface this by saying that the photos and police files released by Deadspin last week don't really tell us anything new about Greg Hardy.  He was already found guilty of domestic assault in a court of law and has done nothing since that time to refute that he's a garbage human being.  The Dallas Cowboys knew all of this when they signed him to a one-year deal this season, and they've spun all kinds of doublespeak about Hardy's leadership abilities and chance at redemption-- because having your record expunged for paying off the victim and getting paid to sit out last season clearly weren't enough.  The only thing that you might find surprising about all of this is that it's not surprising at all.  Athletically, Hardy is still in his prime and fills a simple need for a team that is thin at defensive line.  That's the only calculus Jerry Jones needs to keep him on the payroll and say "so what?" with a straight face.  So for all of the NFL's barking about "No More" and real accountability on issues of domestic violence, there is no bite for one of the most powerful owners in the business.  Most tellingly, the Cowboys staff spent their energies getting Hardy a getaway car after Sunday night's game rather than preparing him to answer to the public.  They know there's no intellectually honest way to address his presence on the team without also acknowledging their implicit support of an abuser without remorse, plain and simple.

The Preemptive Dolphins Cautionary Tale Award: Mike Mularkey, Blaine Gabbert (tie)
There were some pretty decent upsets this weekend coming from the Colts, Titans and 49ers. One highly reductive thing they all had in common? A big change under center or under the headset going into this week. After a very underwhelming start to the season, Indianapolis ousted offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton in favor of Rob Chudzinski. The Titans fired head coach Ken Whisenhunt and put OC Mike Mularkey in charge in the interim. And perhaps most surprisingly, the 49ers benched QB Colin Kaepernick--who was an errant pass away from a second Super Bowl appearance just two years ago--for Blaine Gabbert, who had a 5 - 22 career record before stunning the Falcons on Sunday. We’ll only know whether this was a legitimate turning point for any of these teams after the regular season’s over, but there’s always the temptation to put a little too much stock in an unexpected win after a big change. Just ask Dolphins interim coach Dan Campbell - after Miami mowed down the lowly Titans and Texans with ease, there were four glorious days of playoff talk before this team feel swiftly back to earth in Foxboro and kept on plummeting in Buffalo. So who’s showing true signs of life and who’s getting a fleeting bump of novelty? I like Indy’s chances best. Dismantling the league’s best defense on Sunday was a huge shot in the arm, and Rob Chudzinski has worked small offensive miracles before in Carolina and Cleveland. But beware of the Titans’ and 49ers’ change in fortunes. Mike Mularkey’s debut coincided with the Titans playing the league’s very worst defense and getting Marcus Mariota back from injury. The 49ers’ win had as much to do with the Falcons making a terrible decision to kick a field goal trailing by four late in the game as it did with Blaine Gabbert not totally screwing up. The guy only had 185 yards and 15 completions on the day anyhow. So consider this hot take… extinguished. Yyyyyeeeaaaggghhh!

The Crown of Smugness Award: Carolina Panthers
Okay, okay - I also bestowed this award so that I could gloat about getting the Panthers-Packers game right this past weekend. It hasn’t been the best season for my picks, so I’ll take the small wins where I can get ‘em! But the Panthers are absolutely for real, and they should have walked out of that locker room with crowns of smugness aglow after another big win against the NFC’s top brass this past weekend. Carolina is one of only three undefeated teams left halfway through the season, and this resume is far more impressive than the Pats or the Bengals. In consecutive weeks, they’ve beaten four legitimate playoff contenders including Seattle on the road, the Colts in overtime and the Packers, who looked way worse on Sunday than the final score suggested. Despite having a highly questionable offensive line and receiving corps going into the season, Cam Newton has put this team on his back with ease to match Ron Rivera’s ultra-dependable defense. They’re well-rounded, endlessly tenacious and right now, they aren’t scared of playing anyone. Super Bowl XXXVIII rematch, anyone? This time with fewer numerals, plz!

NFL Week 9 Picks

What time is it?  Picks time!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers - Two NFC playoff shoe-ins are duking it out in our Lady Blitz Game of the Week!  I've made at least one unpopular pick that has come back to bite me each week recently from 49ers over Seahawks to the Titans over just about anybody.  But given the Packers' struggles to find playmakers and how disrespected the Panthers must be feeling right now as undefeated home underdogs, I think Carolina has a real chance to stay undefeated this week.  Why not?

St. Louis Rams at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) - Remember this game well when the wild card picture comes into focus.  These two teams both have a chance to do more than go golfing in January, but every week matters at this point.  And we might have ourselves some real trench warfare between Adrian Peterson and Todd Gurley.  My gut says as clutch as the Vikings have been with their 5 - 2 start, their meager offense could struggle mightily against that ferocious Rams defensive line.

Denver Broncos (-5) at Indianapolis Colts - In actuality, this game is probably going to flop given the way Denver's defense has soared and Indy's offense has gotten stuck in a bottomless vat of molasses until the middle of the fourth quarter.  But after being bested by the Colts during their past two meetings, I'm guessing Peyton Manning will have the upper hand this time, and he's really going to enjoy it.  On a related note, Jim Irsay's been awful quiet lately, eh?

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Oakland Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5) - If the surprisingly good Raiders have an Achilles heel, it is their pass defense.  That could spell bad news when they arrive in Pittsburgh since Big Ben will have to air it out early and often with Le'Veon Bell out for the season.  Of course, De'Angelo Williams is no slouch to back up the Steelers backfield, and their defense is starting to come together. 

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-3) - After showing signs of life in recent weeks, the Dolphins ran into a buzz saw in New England last week.  It turns out, blowing out the Titans and Texans does not a true turnaround make.  I still think this will be a closer game than when these teams last met in Week 3, but with Tyrod Taylor back under center for the Bills and Cameron Wake out for the year for the Dolphins, Buffalo should still have the edge.

Washington Redskinks at New England Patriots (-14) - And so, the Redskinks will be the next team to run into the Foxboro buzz saw this weekend.  I'm really going to enjoy this, especially if we get some visuals of Dan Snyder rolling down a Mission Accomplished banner in the guest box suite.

New York Giants (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - This could be a real comedy of errors.  Will the Giants be totally deflated after putting up 49 points and still taking a loss last week?  Will the Buccaneers regress back to the mean after having to go to overtime with a +4 turnover advantage over the Falcons?  It points to some crazy bush-league plays primed for this week's C'mon Man reel.  Anyway, I guess I like the Giants barely for whatever reason.

Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) at Dallas Cowboys - Somehow, I'm still waiting for that Chip Kelly magic to set in this season.  Maybe the bye week has done the constant tinkerer some good while Dallas continues to count the days until Tony Romo's return.  Byron Maxwell on Dez Bryant spells trouble, but Dez will still have to try to catch passes from Matt Cassel.  That could spell catastrophe.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-11) - Seeing as how I lost Arian Foster, Keenan Allen and Joseph Randle on my fantasy team in a week's time, I'm really hoping Jeremy Hill feasts on Cleveland's run defense tonight.  #carryingforthree

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (-6.5) - After a brief hand injury scare, Fitzmagic returns to the Meadowlands on Sunday!  That good news for the Jets and bad news for the Jags, who could really use a matchup with Geno Smith to get closer to 0.500.

Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints (-8) - Despite what it looks like for the Saints right now, we haven't entered a wormhole that has taken us back to 2009 - 2011.  Drew Brees has been playing out of his mind in recent weeks, and it's been just enough to overcome a genuinely terrible defense.  That defense should catch a break against one of the worst offensive lines in the league though, assuming Marcus Mariota doesn't suddenly decide to have one of those breakout rookie games the Saints frequently allows.

Atlanta Falcons (-7) at San Francisco 49ers - If you listen very closely, you can hear the people of San Francisco asking when pitchers and catchers day is for the Giants...  Or buying Amari Cooper jerseys.  Did I mention Blaine Gabbert is starting over Colin Kaepernick this week?

Chicago Bears at San Diego Chargers (-4) - This week's Snake-bit Bowl features the Bears and Chargers.  Both have had a knack for losing (and sometimes winning but mostly losing) games by one possession.  I hate that Keenan Allen is out for the year - he's been the centerpiece of Philip Rivers' passing attack.  But there's always Malcom Floyd, Stevie Johnson, Antonio Gates and Danny Woodhead - not too shabby!

Lovely Lady Locks 

I’m trying my hand at three points-based picks every week that I think are locks. I hope to count my Monopoly money by the end of the season and will keep you posted along with my overall picks record.  But really, I think we've just learned that gambling is a bad thing. For Week 9, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Rams +2.5 over Vikings
• Broncos -5 over Colts
• Eagles -2.5 over Cowboys

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 78 - 41
Against the Spread: 10 - 14

NFL Week 8 Awards and Midseason Mulligan Playoff Predictions

Welp, that was a crazy football weekend that probably either has you feeling great or totally depressed depending on who you root for.  So in trying to get back in a posting rhythm, I will bestow some Week 8 Awards and make my midseason mulligan playoff predictions.  Let's dive in.


Your Weekly Reminder That ESPN Is Evil Award - The Death of Grantland
It wasn't too much of a surprise but still depressing to hear that ESPN discontinued its "prestige" sports and pop culture offshoot Grantland last Friday.  Once Bill Simmons was forced to walk away from his baby, the foster parents in Bristol were none too enthused about nurturing it further.  I have no doubt that Grantland failed to achieve the same readership/ratings gold of ESPN's endless line of men with hairplugs yelling over each other about who can defend Draft Kings and Greg Hardy the most.  But it was a diamond in the rough for its wicked-smart sports analytics, genuine appreciation of all pro teams in big markets and in small, and its spectacular cast of writers - my favorites including Bill Barnwell, Rembert Browne, and Holly Anderson.  I owe much of this Lady Blitz adventure to Grantland, and I'll miss it sorely.  I'll be sure to pour out an obscure statistical regression reference and ill-fitting The Wire analogy in memoriam.

The Greatest Show on Turf Award - Giants and Saints (tie)
It feels weird to say, but Kenny Albert put it best: it was truly a shame that only one team could win that uber-bonkers offensive extravaganza in the Superdome on Sunday. I think it's safe to say he wasn't thinking about the Saints' and Giants' abysmal defenses, but we were all the better for one of the most memorable games of the year, heck, maybe one of the most memorable games the decade.  Eli Manning and Drew Brees combined for 13 TDs on a career passing day for both.  These two teams racked up over 1,000 yards of offense, 101 points and 63 first downs - yes, a first down every single minute of this game.  It was more like ping pong than football, or maybe Tecmo Bowl Ping Pong -  flea flickers, bombs, bone-headed penalties, blown coverages and all.  I'm grateful the Saints had the ball last - it's arguably the only reason they won.  But now I need to take my blood pressure meds, flatten out my windblown hair, and watch C-SPAN until vital signs return to stasis.  Phew.

The Officially For Real Award - The Denver Broncos
The blog record will show that I was firmly in the Packers' corner going into Sunday night, namely because I had serious doubts about Peyton Manning being able to keep the Broncos' offense on the field and in scoring position against the always-formidable Aaron Rodgers. Not only did Manning have his best performance so far this season, it wouldn't have mattered because Denver's defense crushed the Packers into a cute little diamond that couldn't muster 150 yards.  Rodgers was held to just 77 yards in the air and zero touchdowns - he was flustered all night, unable to get into any kind of rhythm in the pocket or scrambling.  Even when he had time, the Broncos secondary blanketed Green Bay's receivers with ease all night, forcing a litany of futile checkdowns and throw aways.  It was an absolute clinic by a defense that has looked great all season and is starting to draw comparisons to the 2000 Ravens and... dare I say it?  The Legion of Boom.  Now that Manning will have a shot at revitalizing Vernon Davis's career whilst giving himself another weapon to move the chains, the Broncos are coming to form and proving a lot of doubters [like me!] wrong.  Good on 'em.  And be sure to circle your calendar for November 29th when the Patriots' offensive juggernaut comes to town.

The Football Sucks Sometimes Award - Tendons and Ligaments
There are a lot of things that suck about football, most of them NFL- and NCAA-related.  But beyond the large quantities of administrative corruption and arrogance, there is still the stark reality that football is a brutal, unforgiving sport.  This past week was particularly bad in that regard.  There was Ricardo Lockette who had a horrific special teams collision in Dallas and is now out for the season to have neck surgery.  And we also lost a slew of other players to Achilles tendon and ACL/MCL injuries including Cameron Wake, Le'Veon Bell, Reggie Bush and Steve Smith, who might finally have to end a long, illustrious receiving career.  It's a cluster of unfortunate events that happen all the time in this sport, but the injury bug seems especially merciless this season.  It ain't fair and I hate it for all of these players and the many others who've been sidelined this year.

Midseason Mulligan Playoff Predictions

Every year, I make my ill-fated playoff predictions in the preseason and then watch them come crashing down by the end of September.  This year, I'm pretty sure the Chargers and Ravens aren't going to make it in the AFC, and the Colts would probably need zombie apocalypses to breakout in Foxboro, Denver and Cincinnati to be a #1 seed at this point.  The NFC scenario looks somewhat plausible except for foolishly putting my faith in two NFC East teams.  So how about a midseason mulligan just for fun?

AFC Playoffs

Seeding
1. (bye) New England Patriots
Will they go 16 - 0?  The odds are against the Pats but we know this is possible.  To me, the only real threats left on the schedule are the Giants with their devil magic, Denver with that nasty defense at Mile High, and those last two weeks visiting the Jets and Dolphins - Belichick could be resting starters.

2. (bye) Denver Broncos
Did you predict that the Raiders would maybe be the only real challenger to the Broncos in the AFC West at this point in the season?  That ought to give them the edge against the Bengals who have to deal with feistier division rivals, even if Cincy is crushing it right now.

3. Cincinnati Bengals
I still feel like someone should be pinching me about these Bengals - I keep waiting on the big collapse, the moment where they regress into what we know them to be, but they are proving everyone wrong and should get more separation from the Steelers now that Le'Veon Bell is gone for the year.

4. Indianapolis Colts
Oh how the rest of the AFC South's fans must be climbing up the walls because no one else can take advantage of Indy's massive struggles.  Despite a 16-game divisional win streak, Indy is a measly 10 - 16 against the rest of the NFL during that time.  But it'll still almost certainly be enough to win this freakin' division.

5. New York Jets
Here's a team I really, really whiffed on in the preseason when I thought they'd go 3 - 13.  They had a bad loss in Oakland yesterday, but the schedule coming up includes the reeling Bills twice, the Jaguars, the Texans, the Dolphins and the Titans.  That should be enough to give the Jets 9 to 10 wins and a playoff berth.

6. Kansas City Chiefs
This last slot is going to be reeeaally pesky.  The Steelers, Ravens and Dolphins are facing some seemingly insurmountable injuries.  The Bills have cooled off after a hot start and have to deal with the Pats and Jets.  The Raiders are in pole position now for the second seed in the AFC West, but they have two games left with the Chiefs that I think could be the decider.  So in honor of those never-say-die Royals, let's go Chiefs!  (And hope Charcandrick West is a serviceable stand-in for Jamaal Charles).

Wild Card Round
Bengals over Chiefs, Jets over Colts

Divisional Round
Patriots over Jets, Broncos over Bengals

AFC Championship
Patriots over Broncos - Six months ago - heck, three weeks ago - I honestly never thought we'd get a decent matchup between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, but the way their respective offense and defense are playing, we can hope right?

NFC Playoffs

Seeding
1. (bye) Green Bay Packers
The Packers have some stiff competition from the likes of the Cardinals and Panthers - and maybe the Seahawks lurking in the shadows if they can get on a hot streak.  They don't look as dominant on offense as they have in previous iterations, and maybe that Jordy Nelson-sized hole has gotten a little bigger.  But the schedule ahead is manageable if they can knock off Arizona or Carolina on the road later on.

2. (bye) Carolina Panthers
I struggled over whether to put the Panthers ahead of the Packers.  It might well come down to what happens next Sunday - stay tuned!  But they're clearly the best team in the NFC South and they've still got the Titans, Redskinks and Giants on the schedule too.

3. Seattle Seahawks
Something still isn't quite right about these Seahawks.  It took everything they had to edge out the Matt Cassel-led Cowboys on Sunday including some questionable calls.  But they have a three-game homestand against the Cardinals, 49ers and Steelers and then a potential cakewalk with the Vikings, Ravens and Browns.  Even if Arizona's the better team in the division, they have a much steeper hill to climb over the second half of the season.

4. New York Giants
As usual, there's no telling with the NFC East.  Dallas has been hit just about harder than any team with injuries and then gets the toughest part of the schedule when Tony Romo and Dez Bryant are back at full strength.  The Eagles have definitely looked more bad than good.  And the Redskinks, well, you know.  So just maybe the Giants can hang on.  They get to host all of their toughest remaining opponents including Philly in a potential loser-goes-home Week 17 matchup.

5. Arizona Cardinals
I'm rooting Cardinals all the way to take the division crown in the West, but they've got the Seahawks twice as well as the Bengals and Packers.  Any mistakes or big injuries could put them right back where they were last year - with a superb regular season effort and no gas left in the tank for the playoffs.  But who knows?  Few things are more certain in life than Bruce Arians proving me wrong.

6. Atlanta Falcons
There are a few contenders that could land here - the Falcons, Vikings, Rams and maaaaybe the Saints.  A girl can dream, can't she?  Of all of those, I like Atlanta's chances best.  They've only got two currently winning teams left on the schedule and lots of budding talent on the roster if they can get out of this offensive slump.  But I wouldn't complain if the Saints snuck in here.

Wild Card Round
Seahawks over Falcons, Cardinals over Giants

Divisional Round
Panthers over Seahawks, Packers over Cardinals

NFC Championship
Packers over Panthers - If this one's at Lambeau in January, I like the Packers so that we can finally get that Rodgers-Brady matchup I've been waiting on for years.


Super Bowl 50
Patriots over Packers - Eh.  I want SB I - SB 50 bookends for Green Bay, but would you really trust Mike McCarthy in any circumstances against Bill Belichick?