NFL Week 8 Picks

It's been a crazier-than-usual week, so I didn't get through my picks before kick-off on Thursday, but let the Twitter record show that I picked the Patriots (duh) last night. 

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Green Bay Packers (-3) at Denver Broncos - Two undefeated teams coming off of bye weeks and two Hall of Fame quarterbacks? Sign me up for this Lady Blitz Game of the Week!  In the olden days we'd be looking for a high-octane shootout, but this time around, it might well come down to these two defenses trying to keep this game in the mud.  So far, Denver's defense has looked good enough to stymie the likes of Aaron Rodgers with homefield advantage, but look at who they've played - the Chiefs, Ravens, Lions, Vikings, Raiders and Browns.  There isn't a QB in the same universe as Rodgers among those.  Assuming the Packers can limit mistakes and avoid running it up the gut for two quarters if they get a lead (ahem, Mike McCarthy), I think they can keep the Broncos' offense at bay in a somewhat low-scoring affair.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-8) - This time two weeks ago, there was no way I would have dreamed of putting this game anywhere but on the House Punch shelf.  But the Dolphins have been on a mini-tear since Dan Campbell took over and are now only a game back from the Jets in the AFC East.  There isn't a bigger test to know if you're for real right now than to try to steal one from the Pats at home.  And spoiler alert: the Dolphins still ain't the Pats.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) - Big Ben is back and this game just got a whoooole lot more interesting. That alone might be enough emotional energy to will the Steelers to victory at home on Sunday.  But the Bengals are coming off a bye, possibly getting Vontaze Burfict back, and playing some next-level football at the moment.  Let's see if they blow it.

New York Jets (-3) at Oakland Raiders - Who would've thought this would be a legit game back in August?  But here are two fun dark horse candidates for the AFC trying to stay ahead of the rest of the divisional pack in an offense vs. defense spectacular.  Obviously I haven't had as much time to mull this week over as I might in making this pick, so I'm looking at the team I know a lot less about - the Raiders.  While the Carr-Cooper offense has had some great performances so far this season, they've waffled big time against the two defenses that are comparable to the Jets: the Bengals and Broncos.  I see Gang Green putting on the hurt and holding Oakland to less than two touchdowns, garbage time excluded.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-3) - It's been a full calendar year since the Saints last had a 0.500 record, but they've got a good shot at looking respectable again this weekend against the equally uneven Giants.  I would have been terrified of playing New York earlier in the year, but with [admittedly beloved] Odell Beckham looking mortal and the Saints defense starting to gel, New Orleans may just have the upper hand.  Or the Lady Blitz jinx is back on:(

Arizona Cardinals (-6) at Cleveland Browns - The Browns have a chance if they can catch the Pacific Time Zone Cardinals sleeping in on this road trip.  But here's the thing: the Cardinals are good and the Browns are not.  #expertanalysis #thiswillcomebacktobiteme

San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (-3) - Does this one belong on the Well Drink shelf?  Probably not, given that these two teams are a collective 3 - 11 right now.  But they always just have weird, wild unpredictable games, and someone's getting a final nail in their playoff coffin in Baltimore this weekend.  Also, true fact: there are no defenses within a 30-mile radius of this game, so we should have some sloppy fireworks and mega fantasy points.  I have no idea what will happen with this one, but I do know the Ravens' pass defense is atrocious and Philip Rivers will have some fun with it.

Seattle Seahawks (-6) at Dallas Cowboys - The Cowboys still can't catch a break with Joseph Randle facing both injury and suspension and Greg Hardy continuing to remind the rest of us how repulsive he is.  The Seahawks will gladly take that break and keep working their way back to 0.500 at Jerryworld this weekend.

Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers (-7) - There is a very real chance the Colts will be 3 - 5 at the end of Week 8 and still firmly in first place in the AFC South.  The Panthers can relate, but that was when they started from the bottom.  Now they here.  A couple more wins and Drake might just become a Carolina fan!

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at Detroit Lions - Oy.  This is a tough one because I still don't feel like the Lions are quite as bad as their record - and with that batted ball in Seattle, you can say that's technically true.  Assuming Charcandrick West continues to be an okay replacement for Jamaal Charles though, I think the Chiefs should be okay too against the struggling Lions defense.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-1) - It's aliiive - the Vikings' pass rush, that is.  After knocking down Matt Stafford seven times last week, I'm thinking they're going to have a pretty good time with Jay Cutler this weekend.  And I'm starting to think this could be a fun playoff B team if I haven't jinxed them by typing this sentence.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-7) - Hey, the Buccaneers are still pretty bad!  And given the way this year's Falcons tend to play before the fourth quarter, they might give Tampa another huge lead to blow.

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams (-8) - There was a brief moment there where the 49ers looked like the might put up a respectable if futile fight this season.  But with the locker room apparently in shambles and Colin Kaepernick totally declawed, even Nick Foles can outduel this team.  And when I say Nick Foles, I really mean Todd Gurley. 

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-3.5) - This week's Who Cares Bowl takes place in Houston, but I might as well flip a coin in picking a winner here.  The Titans' defense has been incredibly stingy, especially against the pass.  That's probably bad news for a Texans team that now needs to rely on Brian Hoyer more than ever with Arian Foster out for the season. But Houston will likely face Zach Mettenberger who has yet to record a win as a pro.  I'm banking on the Texans making a bad mistake at the wrong time to give the Titans a short field and steal one here.

Lovely Lady Locks 

I’m trying my hand at three points-based picks every week that I think are locks. I hope to count my Monopoly money by the end of the season and will keep you posted along with my overall picks record.  But really, I think we've just learned that gambling is a bad thing. For Week 8, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Seahawks -6 over Cowboys
• 49ers +8 over Rams
• Vikings +1 over Bears

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 69 - 36
Against the Spread: 9 - 12