NFL Week 6 Picks

Given that there are still six undefeated teams in the NFL and another nine with one or fewer wins to their name through five weeks, you could say this season has been a pretty boring one. On the other hand, this past weekend was anything but. Three games went to overtime and another four ended with miraculous late go-ahead scores from the likes of the Steelers, Giants, Bears and Bills. So who will shock the world or put us to bed at a reasonable hour this week? Here are my best guesses on your Week 6 picks!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

New England Patriots (-8) at Indianapolis Colts - I can see Tom Brady licking his chops from here in preparation for the Lady Blitz Game of the Week Ballghazi Vengeance Bowl. I still maintain that the Pats are shadier than Rick Springfield at night, but at this point, is there any proof whatsoever that they got a legitimate competitive edge from their extra-lumpy footballs? They’ve been on an absolute tear this season with what I can only assume have been thoroughly vetted PSIs, and the accuser-Colts now have a huge target on their back at the worst possible time. The question isn’t whether this will be a blowout but rather how big of a blowout. I’m disappointed in Vegas for this low point spread - almost as disappointed as I am for drafting Andrew Luck in the first round for my fantasy team (so say we all, owners of Marshawn Lynch, C.J. Anderson, Eddie Lacy, Jamaal Charles, Tony Romo and Ben Roethlisberger).

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Buffalo Bills - I was miffed at how well I had the Bengals pegged as underperformers in the spotlight when they went down by 17 against the Seahawks last week. Then an Andy Dalton (slash-Tyler Eifert) miracle happened in the Jungle and this team now has all the confidence in the world going into a tough road game in Buffalo. I get a little wary about how that “Emotional Win” could affect Cincinnati’s stamina this week. But I’m a whole lot more wary about the state of the Bills’ offensive line - they would have lost easily to the Titans last week had the game had been solely up to them, and they won’t get any relief against the Bengals’ revitalized defensive line this week. Prayers for Tyrod’s head, shoulders, knees and toes.

Arizona Cardinals (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers  - Speaking of emotional wins, the Steelers pulled off an improbable classic on Monday night and were finally rewarded for Mike Tomlin’s aggressive play-calling this season. Of course, Stillurz fans would be calling for his head if Le’Veon Bell had been tackled three inches further back, but when you get a cinema-quality walk-off win like that, who am I to split hairs? But on to the Cardinals who continue to have an incredibly opportunistic defense that probably won’t give up big plays the way the Chargers were eager to. I see Arizona continuing to make a serious play for the NFC West while the Seahawks are still figuring things out.

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-7) - Beware the point spread, degenerate football gamblers! Seattle continues to get strung up by its porous offensive line and Beastmode-sized hole in the backfield though Thomas Rawls should get daps for doing as well as could be expected. The Panthers are currently sitting at 4 - 0 on the immense strength of their defense and, I believe, an incredibly easy schedule to this point. That should all change when they go to the most hostile environment in the NFL this weekend where batted balls and shared possessions don’t matter to the officiating crew. Just don’t tell Cam Newton he’s too young to get clobbered by Michael Bennett a few times...

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-4) - Everyone was raving about the Eagles offense finally coming alive last weekend. Somehow they neglected to mention that Philly had the pleasure of playing the Saints who are once again dead last in yards allowed and defensive DVOA this season. The Giants, on the other hand, have fared much better than expected without Jason Pierre-Paul and a cadre of third-string safeties. They also have a more-than-serviceable offensive line that has given Eli Manning new life. Maybe the Eagles will take that momentum from last week into this opportunity to even the score in the NFC East, but I have a feeling Philadelphia’s Week 5 win says a lot more about their opponent than themselves.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Denver Broncos (-4) at Cleveland Browns - Perhaps to the chagrin of Buccaneers fans, Josh McCown is looking a lot more 2013 than 2014 lately.  That was a gutsy comeback win against the Ravens last week.  Thing is, that Broncos defense ain't so generous.

Washington Redskinks at New York Jets (-6) - If Lovely Lady Locks extended to over/under on total points, I'd advise you take a look at the 40.5 on this one.  These are two mean defenses that will want to keep the action in the trenches this week.  I don't expect the Jets' Fitzmagic offense to light up the scoreboard, but I do expect them to make fewer mistakes than Kirk Cousins and friends.

San Diego Chargers at Green Bay Packers (-10.5) - Every now and then, these are the kind of games that Philip Rivers puts on his shoulders to win in a shootout.  Unfortunately, I don't think that Chargers defense is going to have much luck against Aaron Rodgers - if the Packers don't punt, don't expect this one to be remotely close.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) at New Orleans Saints - Usually, this is the pinnacle of any Saints season - hosting a division rival that New Orleans had beaten handily under Sean Payton since he arrived in 2006.  But you already know that these teams could not be going in more opposite directions.  The Falcons might take it just a little easier on the Saints with Julio Jones in limited action tonight, but they might just punch their enemy in the mouth with a heavy dose of Davonte Freeman instead.  Go Cubs!

Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings (-4) - Poor Chiefs:(  It was probably more merciful to go ahead and rip the band-aid off with Jamaal Charles' season-ending injury than get strung along for a few more weeks of false hope, but that doesn't make Charles' absence suck any less.  Expect the Vikings to take full advantage of the Chiefs' scant offense this weekend, just as they hope to take advantage of the non-Packers part of the division sitting at 2 - 8.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (PK) - I feel just about as sure about this one as Vegas does.  The Texans have been pretty inept on offense, but they have a solid shot at building some confidence against the porous Jaguars defense.  With Arian Foster stepping up his game and DeAndre Hopkins looking like Andre Johnson in his prime, I'll take a chance on Houston getting it done against their divisional punching bag.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3) - This will be a big test in terms of seeing how low the Lions' nadir will be this season.  They've got as good a chance this week as any against the uneven Bears to get an elusive win.  I'm willing to take a chance there.

Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans (-2.5) - And so we find out whether the Dolphins have learned anything new since dumping a significant portion of their coaching staff.  They might, but that probably won't fix their paper-thin roster on defense.  With the Titans playing great defense and Mariota more than capable of picking apart the 'Fins secondary, I'm guessing Titans.

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers - There are some teams out there underperforming this season, but who saw the Ravens starting out 1 - 4?  The Niners know the feeling, even if we expected that kind of slide from them.  And the 49ers haven't looked as bad lately as their record suggests.  I can't quite say the same thing about Baltimore.

Lovely Lady Locks 

I’m trying my hand at three points-based picks every week that I think are locks. I hope to count my Monopoly money by the end of the season and will keep you posted along with my overall picks record. For Week 6, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Patriots -8 over Colts
• Giants +4 over Eagles
• Vikings -4 over Chiefs

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 51 - 26
Against the Spread: 8 - 7