Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-9) - Somehow, some kind of way, the New York Jets are 4 - 1 with one of the most formidable defenses the Patriots ought to face this season. Let's make this long-standing division rivalry our Lady Blitz Game of the Week! I'm curious to see what Gang Green does against a much stronger opponent than they've faced all season. Moreover, I'm curious to see if the Pats offensive juggernaut looks at least a little bit mortal. It's enough to scare me off of this point spread, but not off of New England continuing to roll at home.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-3.5) - Somehow, the Cowboys think they have a better shot with Matt Cassel under center than Brandon Weeden. That might technically be true, but what a low bar. It's the perfect chance for the Giants to rebound after a miserable outing in Philly last Monday. They'll need to build a better division lead if they want to have a chance when Tony Romo and possibly Dez Bryant are back at full strength.
Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (-3) - Of all of the teams sporting undefeated records in October, I never thought the Panthers would hang on as long or as well as they have. But for better or worse, you are what your record says at some point, and Carolina has won 10 of its last 11 games. Those wins may not have been pretty, but with a ferocious front seven that gets plenty of pressure in the pocket and a quarterback who's been as good as any in the clutch with Greg Olsen and a buncha schlubs catching the ball, the Panthers are simply getting it done. The surging Eagles certainly have a shot if they can do what they do best - generate turnovers. Philly already has 16 takeaways through six weeks and had to like what they saw out of Carolina in Seattle last week with that regard. But I'm betting on the Panthers' defense having plenty of success in that category of their own.
Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations
Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at San Francisco 49ers - Few thought we'd get the kind of rivalry of years past between the Seahawks and 49ers, but with Seattle wallowing at 2 - 4 and San Francisco looking not-the-literal-worst at 2 - 4, they're as evenly matched as ever! I so want to pick the 49ers on this one, and so I am. I don't love their chances, but they aren't afraid of the Seahawks, they've always given this team a run for their money at home, and they are finding their way on both sides of the ball.
Cleveland Browns at St. Louis Rams (-5.5) - The Browns have shown a lot more fight this season than I would have thought, especially going toe-to-toe with the Broncos for 60 minutes last week. But they might just run into a buzz saw when they visit the well-rested Rams in St. Louis this Sunday. The problem? In addition to having an aggressive pass rush that could take Josh McCown out of his element, the Rams have human wrecking ball Todd Gurley while the Browns have the worst rushing defense in the NFL.
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-4.5) - There's certainly a chance that last week's rout in Tennessee was a... fluke, since coaching changes tend to give players a temporary bump in intensity. But we should worry about that another time. The Texans ain't that good, and Miami's got a few more weeks of novelty and drastically improved defense in the tank.
New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5) - At best, this could be a wild shootout between two teams that don't like playing defense so much. Drew Brees and Andrew Luck both looked great last week after suffering through shoulder injuries for the first part of the season, and each is the key to his team's chances this time around. Given that the Saints had a mini-bye and that their pass rush finally showed signs of life in that win over the Falcons, they have a shot here. But it feels like they'll have to have a whole lot more go right to win this week than the Colts at home. Always be jinxin'.
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-4) - The Chargers' defense has looked pretty turrible lately, and they may have a tough test against a well-rested Raiders team with one Amari Cooper. But Philip Rivers is on fire after a near-upset in Green Bay last week, and Oakland is pretty turrible against tight ends. Could this one give us a Rivers-to-Gates fireworks spectacular? My fantasy team and I hope so.
House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest
Buffalo Bills (-5.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars - In this week's edition of "Profiles in NFL Arrogance," you will have to stream this dumb game online if you don't have better plans at 8:30am on Sunday morning. The Bills and Jaguars will be kicking off at the Jaguars' home away from home in London, and Yahoo Sports will gladly take your ad revenue-generating eyeballs in the process. Anyway, Jacksonville is a really bad team and Buffalo is an okay team, so let's go Bills!
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) at Kansas City Chiefs - How about those Steelers holding down the fort while Big Ben is away? Yet again, my Thursday pickin' schedule puts me at somewhat of a disadvantage since I have no idea who will start under center for Pittsburgh three days from now. But with the Chiefs secondary on the ropes, it may not matter who is throwing to Antonio Bryant and Martavis Bryant. I see Kansas City continuing to focus its attention on them Royals and putting itself in better position to nab Leonard Fournette next spring.
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at Detroit Lions - This is the very definition of a coin flip game. The Lions haven't been quite as bad as their record, and the Vikings haven't exactly shocked the world with a quality blowout against a good team. Minnesota is also winless on the road so far this season. I guess I'll bank on that Vikings' defense (and hopefully returning Everson Griffen) getting to focus its full attention on Matt Stafford given the Lions' anemic run game.
Atlanta Falcons (-4) at Tennessee Titans - Let's see here - no Marcus Mariota? Angry Falcons trying to avenge an ugly loss to the Saints? The Titans look like they're in the wrong place at the wrong time again this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskinks (-3.5) - Pouring into the stats, these are two very evenly matched teams. This one will probably come down to turnovers for two teams that love to give the ball away, but I also see Washington having a slight edge in other ways. They're at home, and the Buccaneers' two wins have happened against two of the worst defenses in the NFL, which don't include the Redskinks this year.
Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals (-7.5) - The Cardinals have looked suddenly mortal of late, but they should be able to get back in the saddle against Baltimore's reeling defense. As stunned as I am to say it, 1 - 6 is a real possibility for the Ravens.
Lovely Lady Locks
I’m trying my hand at three points-based picks every week that I think are locks. I hope to count my Monopoly money by the end of the season and will keep you posted along with my overall picks record. But really, I think we've just learned that gambling is a bad thing. For Week 7, my Lovely Lady Locks are:- 49ers +6.5 over Seahawks
- Steelers -2 over Chiefs
- Falcons -4 over Titans
So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 60 - 31
Against the Spread: 9 - 9
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