NFL Week 5 Picks

Go Cubs!  Here are your Lady Blitz Week 5 NFL Picks!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals (-3) - The suddenly mighty Bengals host the suddenly fragile Seahawks in your Lady Blitz Game of the Week!  There's a strong part of me that fears this will be the game in which the 'Hawks take out their early-season frustrations on Cincy and Andy Dalton turns back into an Andy-Dalton-sized pumpkin. It's a distinct possibility if Seattle can have some success with their pass rush against a never-better Bengals offensive line.  But I'm far more concerned about Seattle's offense.  We don't know at this point if Marshawn Lynch will play at all, much less at what strength with a faulty hamstring.  And the Seahawks' offensive line has been rolling out the red carpet for guys like Geno Atkins and Michael Johnson to chase Russell Wilson into panic-passes on the run for most of this game.

St. Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers (-9) - How about that Todd Gurley last week?  I think he gives the Rams a chance to keep this game closer than people might think, especially if St. Louis can control the clock with long, bruising drives that keep Aaron Rodgers off the field.  Nevertheless, what sense is there in betting against the Packers at home?

New England Patriots (-9) at Dallas Cowboys  - Tom Brady vs. Brandon Weeden - the quarterback duel you've been waiting all week for.  Or not.  Dallas gets despicable human being Greg Hardy back this week and possibly Randy Gregory too - that's big considering Sean Lee might not be ready to take the field yet after a concussion against the Saints last Sunday night.  If the Cowboys have a prayer, it will be because their defense can frustrate Brady much more than opponents have to date in 2015, but they have no room for error with a backup quarterback and a mounting injury list.  So I'm going Pats of course.

Pittsburgh Steelers at San Diego Chargers (-3) - By the looks of things, the Steelers can't stop the pass while the Chargers can't stop the run, so we can unfairly reduce this game to Philip Rivers vs. Le'Veon Bell.  This feels like a coin-flip kind of game between two teams trying to elbow their way past other AFC hopefuls.  But with Antonio Gates returning from suspension for San Diego and Pittsburgh trying to survive with the mercurial Michael Vick, I think the Chargers ought to have a little more luck stopping Bell and holding the Steelers to field goals instead of touchdowns... if Steelers Kicker #4 holds up anyway.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-2) - Would that I could hold out on this pick until we know for sure about Andrew Luck's status tonight.  The Texans have a real shot with Arian Foster returning to the fold against the porous Colts run defense, and current QB starter Brian Hoyer nearly pulled off a major upset against this team when he was with the Browns a year ago.  But if Luck is on the field and throwing with at least 80% strength, I think the Colts can keep chipping away at the AFC South.


Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans - Just as I got on the Tyrod train and praised the Bills for their punishing defense, they were all too happy to disappoint me and my fantasy team last Sunday.  They've looked like world-beaters against the Colts and Dolphins who turned out to be struggling profoundly, and they've looked mighty rough against the Pats and the Giants, the latter of which might just be better than I would have believed.  So where does Tennessee fall on that spectrum? Marcus Mariota has the chops to get the Titans into the red zone a few times, but I'm nervous about that offensive line holding up against Kyle Williams and friends for four quarters.  And if Buffalo can just quit with all of those preventable personal fouls for once, they should be able to control this game on both sides of the ball.

Washington Redskinks at Atlanta Falcons (-7.5) - I'm actually kind of intrigued by this one.  The Falcons offense has carved up its opponents to this point on the legs of Devonta Freeman and the hands of Julio Jones.  But the Redskinks defense is currently a top five unit in passing and rushing yards allowed.  This might be the tallest point yet on Atlanta's mole hill of a schedule, but they should be able to get it done against human roulette wheel Kirk Cousins.

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) - Welp, this is feeling like quite the Darren Sproles revenge game.  Even though Drew Brees had a heroic effort against the Cowboys last week, we shouldn't forget that Dallas led for most of the game and it took overtime and a whole lot of injuries for the Saints to squeak by.  I'm not feeling hopeless about the Saints here since their defense showed signs of life after more reshuffling last week.  But mark my words, Sproles is going to do everything he can to go gangbusters against the team that traded him for a hill of beans, and New Orleans could have a very hard time keeping up if they have a slow start in this one too.

Denver Broncos (-5) at Oakland Raiders - There's a lot of talk that the Raiders could give the Broncos a run for their money in this one. Although Denver's offense has looked a little better in the past couple of weeks, we all know now that it won't be the leading reason the Broncos keep winning.  So how will Orange Crush 2.0 do against the strenthened Raiders' offense?  My guess is pretty well.  Oakland almost got blanked against the similarly spectacular Bengals defense in Week 1.  If the Raiders win this one, it might have something to do with new head coach (and ex-DC for Denver) Jack Del Rio using his institutional knowledge to attack Peyton Manning's weak spots. But the Broncos aren't trying to win solely on Manning's arm this year, and their balanced approach so give them the edge.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) - Floridians might just be hoping for a hurricane to sweep these two teams into the gulf this week.  They are collectively 2 - 6 and nothing short of miserable to watch.  I guess I think the Jaguars are possibly less bad at this point, so go Jags!

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) - The Ravens really lucked out last week against the Steelers' intractable allergy to fourth downs, so I wouldn't say they are out of the woods at this point.  But the Browns should help them get one step closer.

Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) - After being pegged by many as the biggest challenger to the Broncos going into this season, the 1 - 3 Chiefs are living on a prayer.  But before you get to wailing and gnashing teeth, remember that these guys have lost to three teams that are currently undefeated with two of those losses on the road.  I like Kansas City getting back in the groove this week against a much worse Bears team, even if I think Jay Cutler might cover the spread with some late-game garbage TDs.

San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants (-7) - I hope Niners fans had fun gashing the Vikings in Week 1.  This team already looks closed for the winter and the Giants are in prime position to win their third game in a row.  Not that I'm complaining.

Lovely Lady Locks 

I’m trying my hand at three points-based picks every week that I think are locks. I hope to count my Monopoly money by the end of the season and will keep you posted along with my overall picks record. For Week 5, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Patriots -9 over Cowboys
• Bills -2.5 over Titans
• Bears +9.5 over Chiefs

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 42 - 21
Against the Spread: 6 - 6