NFL Week 4 Picks

It's a crazy week for me with little time to waste, so let's get right to your Lady Blitz Week 4 NFL Picks!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos (-6.5) - My this week is scant in top shelf games, so behold your Lady Blitz game of the week. This is the only matchup on the slate between two teams with winning records.  Yeesh.  If the Vikings were hosting this one, I think I'd take 'em, and they still have a shot given the defensive improvements they've made since getting steamrolled by Carlos Hyde in Week 1. Nevertheless, the Broncos have made offensive adjustments that fit Peyton Manning's style a lot more comfortably, so I reckon it'll be Denver at home.

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers - With Baltimore reeling at 0 - 3 and Pittsburgh forced to start Michael Vick on a short week, this game ought to be ugly.  That's good for the most brutal rivalry in the NFL, and you can almost count on this being a close game regardless.  Heck, does anyone remember when the Steelers pulled off the road game upset with Charlie Batch a few years ago?  (You don't have to answer that, Ravens fans)  Anyway, I'm half-inclined to pick Pittsburgh on the strength of Antonio Brown alone given Baltimore's abysmal pass defense so far this year.  But the Ravens would do well to stuff the run and dare Vick to throw after very few reps under center to prepare.

Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals (-4) - Poor Chiefs - they can't seem to get any relief as three out of their first four teams on the schedule are sitting at 3 - 0 right now.  Coming off a short week and another road game, I don't like their chances against a white-hot Bengals team either, but here's hoping they put up a good fight.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

New York Jets (-1.5) vs. Miami Dolphins - If last year's insanely dumb Falcons-Lions game is any indicator, this early affair in London could be quite the clown show.  I don't expect either of these teams to be playing their best, but it could make for some quirky entertainment with nothing else to watch at 9:30 on Sunday morning.  So I'm admittedly nervous about picking this game and have gone back and forth plenty.  Given the Jets' plethora of injuries, my best guess is that the jet lag--quite genuinely no pun intended--will make them worse for the wear and allow Miami to steal a desperation win.

Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) - How 'bout them Falcons.   They could easily go 9 - 0 before the bye with the Redskinks, Saints, Titans, Buccaneers and 49ers to come. The only hitch I see this week is if Arian Foster returns to the Texans lineup.  Atlanta looked mighty shaky last week against Joseph Randle in Dallas, and he's no Foster.  But assuming Foster is limited at best, I think the Falcons will keep flying through this sandbox schedule.

New York Giants at Buffalo Bills (-5.5) - Alright y'all.  I'm a believer in Tyrod Taylor - he obviously had a great preseason that landed him the starting gig, but who saw this coming?  Taylor's had some turnover issues but is rocking a near-75% completion rate and averaging more than 9 yards per attempt.  Thank Kanye some awesome person was savvy enough to pick him up off the waiver wire as Andrew Luck nurses a shoulder injury.  Buffalo's offense is humming, and I think this defense will give Eli Manning fits with its pressure packages.  An intra-state blowout is very possible unless Odell Beckham bails Manning out early and often.

Green Bay Packers (-8.5) at San Francisco 49ers - This is a near-guaranteed slaughter, so why is it on the Well Drink shelf?  The Packers have a prime opportunity for revenge after getting smacked around by the 49ers during their previous four meetings.  It probably won't be competitive, but it still be plenty entertaining to watch Green Bay's offensive fireworks show.

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-7) - After looking awesome in that Week 1 upset against the Seahawks, the Rams have returned to their natural habitat of offensive ineptitude.  That won't be good against a Cardinals team that is kicking everyone's teeth in on both sides of the ball right now.  If St. Louis can break through Arizona's stout offensive line, they've got a chance but otherwise, this team is toast in the desert sun.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-9) - Can Andrew Luck still beat the Jaguars with one arm?  Let's hope so.  The kind people of Indianapolis might just riot if the Colts drop one to lowly Jacksonville at home this week.

Carolina Panthers (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - I'm calling it - the Panthers are definitely the bad-good team in the undefeateds.  Their offense consists entirely of Cam Newton running away from his disintegrating pocket and hoping Greg Olsen is open.  It's worked against some very bad teams, and it should work just fine against the Bucs too.

Oakland Raiders (-3) at Chicago Bears - Let's check back in on the Bears - Jimmy Clausen?  No Alshon Jeffery? Ok then.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Washington Redskinks - I'm not sold that the Eagles will win this.  It took five takeaways and a special teams TD to topple the Jets last week, and the Redskinks are quietly having a very solid year on defense so far.  If Philly has a saving grace, I think it's realizing that Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles might be much more solid bets than the hobbled DeMarco Murray.

Cleveland Browns at San Diego Chargers (-7.5) - Hey look - here is a game that exists. How much more experience do the Browns really need with Josh McCown to know they are doomed?


Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (-4.5) - As it currently stands, this could be the kind of unanticipated stinker that the NBC executive conference room is dreading.  We won't have Romo, Dez or Jimmy Graham for sure, and we might be subjugated to a "shootout" between Brandon Weeden and Luke McCown.  Yikes.  The Saints used to be uber-reliable at home in prime time with Drew Brees, but since he'll certainly be at less than 100% if he even plays, the Cowboys still look to be too much for New Orleans' defense to handle.

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5) - I think I heard a huge collective sigh in Seattle all the way from the I-55 corridor last weekend.  The Legion of Boom is back and up to the task of bullying other NFC weakerthans.  The bumbling Lions should be no different.

Lovely Lady Locks 

I’m trying my hand at three points-based picks every week that I think are locks. I hope to count my Monopoly money by the end of the season and will keep you posted along with my overall picks record. For Week 4, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Cardinals -7 over Rams
• Packers -8.5 over 49ers
• Seahawks -9.5 over Lions

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 33 - 15
Against the Spread: 5 - 4