NFL Week 8 Picks

It's been a crazier-than-usual week, so I didn't get through my picks before kick-off on Thursday, but let the Twitter record show that I picked the Patriots (duh) last night. 

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Green Bay Packers (-3) at Denver Broncos - Two undefeated teams coming off of bye weeks and two Hall of Fame quarterbacks? Sign me up for this Lady Blitz Game of the Week!  In the olden days we'd be looking for a high-octane shootout, but this time around, it might well come down to these two defenses trying to keep this game in the mud.  So far, Denver's defense has looked good enough to stymie the likes of Aaron Rodgers with homefield advantage, but look at who they've played - the Chiefs, Ravens, Lions, Vikings, Raiders and Browns.  There isn't a QB in the same universe as Rodgers among those.  Assuming the Packers can limit mistakes and avoid running it up the gut for two quarters if they get a lead (ahem, Mike McCarthy), I think they can keep the Broncos' offense at bay in a somewhat low-scoring affair.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-8) - This time two weeks ago, there was no way I would have dreamed of putting this game anywhere but on the House Punch shelf.  But the Dolphins have been on a mini-tear since Dan Campbell took over and are now only a game back from the Jets in the AFC East.  There isn't a bigger test to know if you're for real right now than to try to steal one from the Pats at home.  And spoiler alert: the Dolphins still ain't the Pats.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) - Big Ben is back and this game just got a whoooole lot more interesting. That alone might be enough emotional energy to will the Steelers to victory at home on Sunday.  But the Bengals are coming off a bye, possibly getting Vontaze Burfict back, and playing some next-level football at the moment.  Let's see if they blow it.

New York Jets (-3) at Oakland Raiders - Who would've thought this would be a legit game back in August?  But here are two fun dark horse candidates for the AFC trying to stay ahead of the rest of the divisional pack in an offense vs. defense spectacular.  Obviously I haven't had as much time to mull this week over as I might in making this pick, so I'm looking at the team I know a lot less about - the Raiders.  While the Carr-Cooper offense has had some great performances so far this season, they've waffled big time against the two defenses that are comparable to the Jets: the Bengals and Broncos.  I see Gang Green putting on the hurt and holding Oakland to less than two touchdowns, garbage time excluded.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-3) - It's been a full calendar year since the Saints last had a 0.500 record, but they've got a good shot at looking respectable again this weekend against the equally uneven Giants.  I would have been terrified of playing New York earlier in the year, but with [admittedly beloved] Odell Beckham looking mortal and the Saints defense starting to gel, New Orleans may just have the upper hand.  Or the Lady Blitz jinx is back on:(

Arizona Cardinals (-6) at Cleveland Browns - The Browns have a chance if they can catch the Pacific Time Zone Cardinals sleeping in on this road trip.  But here's the thing: the Cardinals are good and the Browns are not.  #expertanalysis #thiswillcomebacktobiteme

San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (-3) - Does this one belong on the Well Drink shelf?  Probably not, given that these two teams are a collective 3 - 11 right now.  But they always just have weird, wild unpredictable games, and someone's getting a final nail in their playoff coffin in Baltimore this weekend.  Also, true fact: there are no defenses within a 30-mile radius of this game, so we should have some sloppy fireworks and mega fantasy points.  I have no idea what will happen with this one, but I do know the Ravens' pass defense is atrocious and Philip Rivers will have some fun with it.

Seattle Seahawks (-6) at Dallas Cowboys - The Cowboys still can't catch a break with Joseph Randle facing both injury and suspension and Greg Hardy continuing to remind the rest of us how repulsive he is.  The Seahawks will gladly take that break and keep working their way back to 0.500 at Jerryworld this weekend.

Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers (-7) - There is a very real chance the Colts will be 3 - 5 at the end of Week 8 and still firmly in first place in the AFC South.  The Panthers can relate, but that was when they started from the bottom.  Now they here.  A couple more wins and Drake might just become a Carolina fan!

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at Detroit Lions - Oy.  This is a tough one because I still don't feel like the Lions are quite as bad as their record - and with that batted ball in Seattle, you can say that's technically true.  Assuming Charcandrick West continues to be an okay replacement for Jamaal Charles though, I think the Chiefs should be okay too against the struggling Lions defense.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-1) - It's aliiive - the Vikings' pass rush, that is.  After knocking down Matt Stafford seven times last week, I'm thinking they're going to have a pretty good time with Jay Cutler this weekend.  And I'm starting to think this could be a fun playoff B team if I haven't jinxed them by typing this sentence.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-7) - Hey, the Buccaneers are still pretty bad!  And given the way this year's Falcons tend to play before the fourth quarter, they might give Tampa another huge lead to blow.

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams (-8) - There was a brief moment there where the 49ers looked like the might put up a respectable if futile fight this season.  But with the locker room apparently in shambles and Colin Kaepernick totally declawed, even Nick Foles can outduel this team.  And when I say Nick Foles, I really mean Todd Gurley. 

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-3.5) - This week's Who Cares Bowl takes place in Houston, but I might as well flip a coin in picking a winner here.  The Titans' defense has been incredibly stingy, especially against the pass.  That's probably bad news for a Texans team that now needs to rely on Brian Hoyer more than ever with Arian Foster out for the season. But Houston will likely face Zach Mettenberger who has yet to record a win as a pro.  I'm banking on the Texans making a bad mistake at the wrong time to give the Titans a short field and steal one here.

Lovely Lady Locks 

I’m trying my hand at three points-based picks every week that I think are locks. I hope to count my Monopoly money by the end of the season and will keep you posted along with my overall picks record.  But really, I think we've just learned that gambling is a bad thing. For Week 8, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Seahawks -6 over Cowboys
• 49ers +8 over Rams
• Vikings +1 over Bears

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 69 - 36
Against the Spread: 9 - 12

NFL Week 7 Picks

How 'bout some mind-blowing Week 7 picks?  No?  Well, I've got some regular-mind-in-tact Week 7 picks here instead!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-9) - Somehow, some kind of way, the New York Jets are 4 - 1 with one of the most formidable defenses the Patriots ought to face this season.  Let's make this long-standing division rivalry our Lady Blitz Game of the Week!  I'm curious to see what Gang Green does against a much stronger opponent than they've faced all season.  Moreover, I'm curious to see if the Pats offensive juggernaut looks at least a little bit mortal.  It's enough to scare me off of this point spread, but not off of New England continuing to roll at home.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-3.5) - Somehow, the Cowboys think they have a better shot with Matt Cassel under center than Brandon Weeden.  That might technically be true, but what a low bar.  It's the perfect chance for the Giants to rebound after a miserable outing in Philly last Monday.  They'll need to build a better division lead if they want to have a chance when Tony Romo and possibly Dez Bryant are back at full strength.

Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (-3) - Of all of the teams sporting undefeated records in October, I never thought the Panthers would hang on as long or as well as they have.  But for better or worse, you are what your record says at some point, and Carolina has won 10 of its last 11 games.  Those wins may not have been pretty, but with a ferocious front seven that gets plenty of pressure in the pocket and a quarterback who's been as good as any in the clutch with Greg Olsen and a buncha schlubs catching the ball, the Panthers are simply getting it done.  The surging Eagles certainly have a shot if they can do what they do best - generate turnovers.  Philly already has 16 takeaways through six weeks and had to like what they saw out of Carolina in Seattle last week with that regard.  But I'm betting on the Panthers' defense having plenty of success in that category of their own.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at San Francisco 49ers - Few thought we'd get the kind of rivalry of years past between the Seahawks and 49ers, but with Seattle wallowing at 2 - 4 and San Francisco looking not-the-literal-worst at 2 - 4, they're as evenly matched as ever!  I so want to pick the 49ers on this one, and so I am.  I don't love their chances, but they aren't afraid of the Seahawks, they've always given this team a run for their money at home, and they are finding their way on both sides of the ball. 

Cleveland Browns at St. Louis Rams (-5.5) - The Browns have shown a lot more fight this season than I would have thought, especially going toe-to-toe with the Broncos for 60 minutes last week.  But they might just run into a buzz saw when they visit the well-rested Rams in St. Louis this Sunday.  The problem?  In addition to having an aggressive pass rush that could take Josh McCown out of his element, the Rams have human wrecking ball Todd Gurley while the Browns have the worst rushing defense in the NFL.  

Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-4.5) - There's certainly a chance that last week's rout in Tennessee was a... fluke, since coaching changes tend to give players a temporary bump in intensity.  But we should worry about that another time.  The Texans ain't that good, and Miami's got a few more weeks of novelty and drastically improved defense in the tank.

New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5) - At best, this could be a wild shootout between two teams that don't like playing defense so much.  Drew Brees and Andrew Luck both looked great last week after suffering through shoulder injuries for the first part of the season, and each is the key to his team's chances this time around.  Given that the Saints had a mini-bye and that their pass rush finally showed signs of life in that win over the Falcons, they have a shot here.  But it feels like they'll have to have a whole lot more go right to win this week than the Colts at home.  Always be jinxin'.

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-4) - The Chargers' defense has looked pretty turrible lately, and they may have a tough test against a well-rested Raiders team with one Amari Cooper.  But Philip Rivers is on fire after a near-upset in Green Bay last week, and Oakland is pretty turrible against tight ends.  Could this one give us a Rivers-to-Gates fireworks spectacular?  My fantasy team and I hope so.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Buffalo Bills (-5.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars - In this week's edition of "Profiles in NFL Arrogance," you will have to stream this dumb game online if you don't have better plans at 8:30am on Sunday morning.  The Bills and Jaguars will be kicking off at the Jaguars' home away from home in London, and Yahoo Sports will gladly take your ad revenue-generating eyeballs in the process. Anyway, Jacksonville is a really bad team and Buffalo is an okay team, so let's go Bills!

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) at Kansas City Chiefs - How about those Steelers holding down the fort while Big Ben is away?  Yet again, my Thursday pickin' schedule puts me at somewhat of a disadvantage since I have no idea who will start under center for Pittsburgh three days from now.  But with the Chiefs secondary on the ropes, it may not matter who is throwing to Antonio Bryant and Martavis Bryant.  I see Kansas City continuing to focus its attention on them Royals and putting itself in better position to nab Leonard Fournette next spring.

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at Detroit Lions - This is the very definition of a coin flip game.  The Lions haven't been quite as bad as their record, and the Vikings haven't exactly shocked the world with a quality blowout against a good team.  Minnesota is also winless on the road so far this season.  I guess I'll bank on that Vikings' defense (and hopefully returning Everson Griffen) getting to focus its full attention on Matt Stafford given the Lions' anemic run game.

Atlanta Falcons (-4) at Tennessee Titans - Let's see here - no Marcus Mariota?  Angry Falcons trying to avenge an ugly loss to the Saints?  The Titans look like they're in the wrong place at the wrong time again this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskinks (-3.5) - Pouring into the stats, these are two very evenly matched teams.  This one will probably come down to turnovers for two teams that love to give the ball away, but I also see Washington having a slight edge in other ways.  They're at home, and the Buccaneers' two wins have happened against two of the worst defenses in the NFL, which don't include the Redskinks this year.

Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals (-7.5) - The Cardinals have looked suddenly mortal of late, but they should be able to get back in the saddle against Baltimore's reeling defense.  As stunned as I am to say it, 1 - 6 is a real possibility for the Ravens.

Lovely Lady Locks 

I’m trying my hand at three points-based picks every week that I think are locks. I hope to count my Monopoly money by the end of the season and will keep you posted along with my overall picks record.  But really, I think we've just learned that gambling is a bad thing. For Week 7, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• 49ers +6.5 over Seahawks
• Steelers -2 over Chiefs
• Falcons -4 over Titans

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 60 - 31
Against the Spread: 9 - 9

NFL Week 6 Awards

Here be your NFL Week 6 Awards, straight up!

The QB Controversy That Must Not Be Named Award: Manning v. Osweiler
After six weeks, we are down to five teams that are still undefeated.  We know the Patriots and Packers are the real deal given their HOF quarterbacks, and the Bengals and Panthers have had some mighty impressive wins in recent weeks to prove they deserve to be here too.  But the Broncos?  They've only played one team so far that currently has a winning record, and they've only won one game by more than a touchdown.  Taking into account the miraculous defensive stops Denver had with the Ravens, Chiefs, and Browns in particular, this team is on a razor-thin margin between 6 - 0 and 3 - 3.  Undeniably, Peyton Manning has become a liability for the Broncos, and sooner or later, it's going to catch up with them this season.  He has ten interceptions to just seven touchdowns through six weeks.  That's more interceptions and fewer touchdowns than Blake Bortles, Josh McCown or Bryan Hoyer.  Denver has been able to kick the can with some tight wins against bad teams, but I can't help but wonder if things will change under center after they face the Packers, Colts, Patriots, Steelers and Bengals in the weeks to come.  No one's talking about Brock Osweiler just yet, but it feels like that day is coming sooner than Manning or Kubiak or Elway might want to admit.

The Wait, What? Award: Colts Special Teams
On the one hand, I have to give Chuck Pagano a little bit of props for knowing the Colts would need a kitchen-sink approach to have a shot at upsetting the Patriots.  And hey, they only lost by seven!  But on the other hand, I really cannot think of a more perplexingly bad play in design and execution than that swinging gate fake punt in the third quarter on Sunday night. In case you're wondering how this could ever be a thing, here's a situation where it worked, but notice how Miami was able to take advantage of a totally confused receiving team that did not line up with the quarterback.  Not only did Indy not get the misalignment they were looking for from the Patriots, they also managed to create their own illegal formation and opt to snap the ball for an immediate sack rather than take a delay of game or call a timeout.  And yes, according to Pagano this was a thing that was practiced during the previous week.  It's almost like the Colts tried to draw a hand turkey to submit to the Guggenheim and also left off the thumb.

The One Perfect Day Award: New Orleans Saints, Miami Dolphins (tie)
For the vast majority of this season to date, the Saints and Dolphins have looked totally inept. Both teams have failed to find rhythm and big plays on offense and have ranked among the league's worst defenses by any measure.  But for one perfect day in Week 6, these two teams executed to perfection and got some lucky bounces along the way too.  The Saints took down the reviled 5 - 0 Falcons, sacking Matt Ryan five times, recovering three fumbles, and blocking a punt for a touchdown a la the immortal Steve Gleason in 2006.  Drew Brees looked vintage with 300 yards and a 91.8 QB rating.  After much criticism for their underwhelming pass rush, the Dolphins landed six sacks and four takeaways against the Titans.  Even more importantly, Miami's offense finally came alive - Lamar Miller had more rushing yards this week than in the previous four games combined, and the Dolphins scored nearly twice as many points as they have in any other game this season.  Chalk it up to the prime time lights in New Orleans or the new coaching regime in Miami, but the clouds broke for one perfect day for these two franchises and their beleaguered fans.  It was a beautiful thing.

The Next, Next Man Up Award: Landry Jones (and Martavis Bryant)
Who the heck is Landry Jones, you ask?  Only the Steelers' third-string quarterback who took over in the second quarter when they were down 0 - 7 and helped willed them to another improbable victory with Ben Roethlisberger on the sidelines.  Jones was as electric as a backup could be expected to be - completing 75% of his passes and two touchdowns.  Of course, all but 30 yards of Jones' production went to the fresh-off-suspension deep threat Martavis Bryant, but no one in Pittsburgh is complaining about that.  Kudos to the Steelers for beating one of the tougher teams in the league with relative ease and keeping pace in what could be a tight wild card race.

The Clockwork Orange Torture Film Award: The Giants-Eagles Game
And finally, a game that probably gave Tony Romo an aneurysm while watching it at home.  It seems no one really wants the NFC East except the guys on injured reserve.  If you were looking to show your captive something atrocious with their eyes pried open a la A Clockwork Orange, consider the Monday night Giants-Eagles "game." It featured three interceptions, three fumbles and nine penalties... and that was just the winning team.  All told, these two teams combined for seven turnovers and 21 penalties, making this one little more than football-flavored seasoning around a halftime Star Wars commercial.  Expect some kind of revenge of the nerds for having to slog through one of the worst prime-time games of the season for a trailer they could have Googled minutes later.  Blerg.

NFL Week 6 Picks

Given that there are still six undefeated teams in the NFL and another nine with one or fewer wins to their name through five weeks, you could say this season has been a pretty boring one. On the other hand, this past weekend was anything but. Three games went to overtime and another four ended with miraculous late go-ahead scores from the likes of the Steelers, Giants, Bears and Bills. So who will shock the world or put us to bed at a reasonable hour this week? Here are my best guesses on your Week 6 picks!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

New England Patriots (-8) at Indianapolis Colts - I can see Tom Brady licking his chops from here in preparation for the Lady Blitz Game of the Week Ballghazi Vengeance Bowl. I still maintain that the Pats are shadier than Rick Springfield at night, but at this point, is there any proof whatsoever that they got a legitimate competitive edge from their extra-lumpy footballs? They’ve been on an absolute tear this season with what I can only assume have been thoroughly vetted PSIs, and the accuser-Colts now have a huge target on their back at the worst possible time. The question isn’t whether this will be a blowout but rather how big of a blowout. I’m disappointed in Vegas for this low point spread - almost as disappointed as I am for drafting Andrew Luck in the first round for my fantasy team (so say we all, owners of Marshawn Lynch, C.J. Anderson, Eddie Lacy, Jamaal Charles, Tony Romo and Ben Roethlisberger).

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Buffalo Bills - I was miffed at how well I had the Bengals pegged as underperformers in the spotlight when they went down by 17 against the Seahawks last week. Then an Andy Dalton (slash-Tyler Eifert) miracle happened in the Jungle and this team now has all the confidence in the world going into a tough road game in Buffalo. I get a little wary about how that “Emotional Win” could affect Cincinnati’s stamina this week. But I’m a whole lot more wary about the state of the Bills’ offensive line - they would have lost easily to the Titans last week had the game had been solely up to them, and they won’t get any relief against the Bengals’ revitalized defensive line this week. Prayers for Tyrod’s head, shoulders, knees and toes.

Arizona Cardinals (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers  - Speaking of emotional wins, the Steelers pulled off an improbable classic on Monday night and were finally rewarded for Mike Tomlin’s aggressive play-calling this season. Of course, Stillurz fans would be calling for his head if Le’Veon Bell had been tackled three inches further back, but when you get a cinema-quality walk-off win like that, who am I to split hairs? But on to the Cardinals who continue to have an incredibly opportunistic defense that probably won’t give up big plays the way the Chargers were eager to. I see Arizona continuing to make a serious play for the NFC West while the Seahawks are still figuring things out.

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-7) - Beware the point spread, degenerate football gamblers! Seattle continues to get strung up by its porous offensive line and Beastmode-sized hole in the backfield though Thomas Rawls should get daps for doing as well as could be expected. The Panthers are currently sitting at 4 - 0 on the immense strength of their defense and, I believe, an incredibly easy schedule to this point. That should all change when they go to the most hostile environment in the NFL this weekend where batted balls and shared possessions don’t matter to the officiating crew. Just don’t tell Cam Newton he’s too young to get clobbered by Michael Bennett a few times...

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-4) - Everyone was raving about the Eagles offense finally coming alive last weekend. Somehow they neglected to mention that Philly had the pleasure of playing the Saints who are once again dead last in yards allowed and defensive DVOA this season. The Giants, on the other hand, have fared much better than expected without Jason Pierre-Paul and a cadre of third-string safeties. They also have a more-than-serviceable offensive line that has given Eli Manning new life. Maybe the Eagles will take that momentum from last week into this opportunity to even the score in the NFC East, but I have a feeling Philadelphia’s Week 5 win says a lot more about their opponent than themselves.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Denver Broncos (-4) at Cleveland Browns - Perhaps to the chagrin of Buccaneers fans, Josh McCown is looking a lot more 2013 than 2014 lately.  That was a gutsy comeback win against the Ravens last week.  Thing is, that Broncos defense ain't so generous.

Washington Redskinks at New York Jets (-6) - If Lovely Lady Locks extended to over/under on total points, I'd advise you take a look at the 40.5 on this one.  These are two mean defenses that will want to keep the action in the trenches this week.  I don't expect the Jets' Fitzmagic offense to light up the scoreboard, but I do expect them to make fewer mistakes than Kirk Cousins and friends.

San Diego Chargers at Green Bay Packers (-10.5) - Every now and then, these are the kind of games that Philip Rivers puts on his shoulders to win in a shootout.  Unfortunately, I don't think that Chargers defense is going to have much luck against Aaron Rodgers - if the Packers don't punt, don't expect this one to be remotely close.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) at New Orleans Saints - Usually, this is the pinnacle of any Saints season - hosting a division rival that New Orleans had beaten handily under Sean Payton since he arrived in 2006.  But you already know that these teams could not be going in more opposite directions.  The Falcons might take it just a little easier on the Saints with Julio Jones in limited action tonight, but they might just punch their enemy in the mouth with a heavy dose of Davonte Freeman instead.  Go Cubs!

Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings (-4) - Poor Chiefs:(  It was probably more merciful to go ahead and rip the band-aid off with Jamaal Charles' season-ending injury than get strung along for a few more weeks of false hope, but that doesn't make Charles' absence suck any less.  Expect the Vikings to take full advantage of the Chiefs' scant offense this weekend, just as they hope to take advantage of the non-Packers part of the division sitting at 2 - 8.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (PK) - I feel just about as sure about this one as Vegas does.  The Texans have been pretty inept on offense, but they have a solid shot at building some confidence against the porous Jaguars defense.  With Arian Foster stepping up his game and DeAndre Hopkins looking like Andre Johnson in his prime, I'll take a chance on Houston getting it done against their divisional punching bag.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3) - This will be a big test in terms of seeing how low the Lions' nadir will be this season.  They've got as good a chance this week as any against the uneven Bears to get an elusive win.  I'm willing to take a chance there.

Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans (-2.5) - And so we find out whether the Dolphins have learned anything new since dumping a significant portion of their coaching staff.  They might, but that probably won't fix their paper-thin roster on defense.  With the Titans playing great defense and Mariota more than capable of picking apart the 'Fins secondary, I'm guessing Titans.

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers - There are some teams out there underperforming this season, but who saw the Ravens starting out 1 - 4?  The Niners know the feeling, even if we expected that kind of slide from them.  And the 49ers haven't looked as bad lately as their record suggests.  I can't quite say the same thing about Baltimore.

Lovely Lady Locks 

I’m trying my hand at three points-based picks every week that I think are locks. I hope to count my Monopoly money by the end of the season and will keep you posted along with my overall picks record. For Week 6, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Patriots -8 over Colts
• Giants +4 over Eagles
• Vikings -4 over Chiefs

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 51 - 26
Against the Spread: 8 - 7

NFL Week 5 Picks

Go Cubs!  Here are your Lady Blitz Week 5 NFL Picks!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals (-3) - The suddenly mighty Bengals host the suddenly fragile Seahawks in your Lady Blitz Game of the Week!  There's a strong part of me that fears this will be the game in which the 'Hawks take out their early-season frustrations on Cincy and Andy Dalton turns back into an Andy-Dalton-sized pumpkin. It's a distinct possibility if Seattle can have some success with their pass rush against a never-better Bengals offensive line.  But I'm far more concerned about Seattle's offense.  We don't know at this point if Marshawn Lynch will play at all, much less at what strength with a faulty hamstring.  And the Seahawks' offensive line has been rolling out the red carpet for guys like Geno Atkins and Michael Johnson to chase Russell Wilson into panic-passes on the run for most of this game.

St. Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers (-9) - How about that Todd Gurley last week?  I think he gives the Rams a chance to keep this game closer than people might think, especially if St. Louis can control the clock with long, bruising drives that keep Aaron Rodgers off the field.  Nevertheless, what sense is there in betting against the Packers at home?

New England Patriots (-9) at Dallas Cowboys  - Tom Brady vs. Brandon Weeden - the quarterback duel you've been waiting all week for.  Or not.  Dallas gets despicable human being Greg Hardy back this week and possibly Randy Gregory too - that's big considering Sean Lee might not be ready to take the field yet after a concussion against the Saints last Sunday night.  If the Cowboys have a prayer, it will be because their defense can frustrate Brady much more than opponents have to date in 2015, but they have no room for error with a backup quarterback and a mounting injury list.  So I'm going Pats of course.

Pittsburgh Steelers at San Diego Chargers (-3) - By the looks of things, the Steelers can't stop the pass while the Chargers can't stop the run, so we can unfairly reduce this game to Philip Rivers vs. Le'Veon Bell.  This feels like a coin-flip kind of game between two teams trying to elbow their way past other AFC hopefuls.  But with Antonio Gates returning from suspension for San Diego and Pittsburgh trying to survive with the mercurial Michael Vick, I think the Chargers ought to have a little more luck stopping Bell and holding the Steelers to field goals instead of touchdowns... if Steelers Kicker #4 holds up anyway.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-2) - Would that I could hold out on this pick until we know for sure about Andrew Luck's status tonight.  The Texans have a real shot with Arian Foster returning to the fold against the porous Colts run defense, and current QB starter Brian Hoyer nearly pulled off a major upset against this team when he was with the Browns a year ago.  But if Luck is on the field and throwing with at least 80% strength, I think the Colts can keep chipping away at the AFC South.


Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans - Just as I got on the Tyrod train and praised the Bills for their punishing defense, they were all too happy to disappoint me and my fantasy team last Sunday.  They've looked like world-beaters against the Colts and Dolphins who turned out to be struggling profoundly, and they've looked mighty rough against the Pats and the Giants, the latter of which might just be better than I would have believed.  So where does Tennessee fall on that spectrum? Marcus Mariota has the chops to get the Titans into the red zone a few times, but I'm nervous about that offensive line holding up against Kyle Williams and friends for four quarters.  And if Buffalo can just quit with all of those preventable personal fouls for once, they should be able to control this game on both sides of the ball.

Washington Redskinks at Atlanta Falcons (-7.5) - I'm actually kind of intrigued by this one.  The Falcons offense has carved up its opponents to this point on the legs of Devonta Freeman and the hands of Julio Jones.  But the Redskinks defense is currently a top five unit in passing and rushing yards allowed.  This might be the tallest point yet on Atlanta's mole hill of a schedule, but they should be able to get it done against human roulette wheel Kirk Cousins.

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) - Welp, this is feeling like quite the Darren Sproles revenge game.  Even though Drew Brees had a heroic effort against the Cowboys last week, we shouldn't forget that Dallas led for most of the game and it took overtime and a whole lot of injuries for the Saints to squeak by.  I'm not feeling hopeless about the Saints here since their defense showed signs of life after more reshuffling last week.  But mark my words, Sproles is going to do everything he can to go gangbusters against the team that traded him for a hill of beans, and New Orleans could have a very hard time keeping up if they have a slow start in this one too.

Denver Broncos (-5) at Oakland Raiders - There's a lot of talk that the Raiders could give the Broncos a run for their money in this one. Although Denver's offense has looked a little better in the past couple of weeks, we all know now that it won't be the leading reason the Broncos keep winning.  So how will Orange Crush 2.0 do against the strenthened Raiders' offense?  My guess is pretty well.  Oakland almost got blanked against the similarly spectacular Bengals defense in Week 1.  If the Raiders win this one, it might have something to do with new head coach (and ex-DC for Denver) Jack Del Rio using his institutional knowledge to attack Peyton Manning's weak spots. But the Broncos aren't trying to win solely on Manning's arm this year, and their balanced approach so give them the edge.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) - Floridians might just be hoping for a hurricane to sweep these two teams into the gulf this week.  They are collectively 2 - 6 and nothing short of miserable to watch.  I guess I think the Jaguars are possibly less bad at this point, so go Jags!

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) - The Ravens really lucked out last week against the Steelers' intractable allergy to fourth downs, so I wouldn't say they are out of the woods at this point.  But the Browns should help them get one step closer.

Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) - After being pegged by many as the biggest challenger to the Broncos going into this season, the 1 - 3 Chiefs are living on a prayer.  But before you get to wailing and gnashing teeth, remember that these guys have lost to three teams that are currently undefeated with two of those losses on the road.  I like Kansas City getting back in the groove this week against a much worse Bears team, even if I think Jay Cutler might cover the spread with some late-game garbage TDs.

San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants (-7) - I hope Niners fans had fun gashing the Vikings in Week 1.  This team already looks closed for the winter and the Giants are in prime position to win their third game in a row.  Not that I'm complaining.

Lovely Lady Locks 

I’m trying my hand at three points-based picks every week that I think are locks. I hope to count my Monopoly money by the end of the season and will keep you posted along with my overall picks record. For Week 5, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Patriots -9 over Cowboys
• Bills -2.5 over Titans
• Bears +9.5 over Chiefs

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 42 - 21
Against the Spread: 6 - 6

NFL Week 4 Awards and the All-Disappointment Fantasy Team

Hey there!  Things are still pretty nuts outside of the Lady Blitz world this week, so I only have a couple of NFL Week 4 awards to bestow:

The Lonesome Kicker Award - Josh Scobee, Josh Hocker, Adam Vinatieri, Jason Myers, et al
Many people on the interwebs have pointed out what a miserable week it has been for kickers.  Teams like the Steelers and Jaguars suffered heart-breaking losses on the foot of the guy who literally has one job.  Teams like the Saints, Colts and Chargers faced the threat of overtime after some atrocious late-game misses and barely eked out wins in spite of some not-so-golden boots.  Anyway, in honor of all of the kickers who go unnoticed when they do things well and get universally berated when they fail, I give you The Lonesome Kicker.


The All-Disappointment Fantasy Team
Secondly and finally, I don't know about you but I've had a miserable fantasy season so far after winning it all in 2014.  Three of my first four picks didn't even play Sunday due to injuries, and the swirl of panic trades and acquisitions has not been enough so far to recoup.  But I am reminding myself that it could be worse - some poor schmuck out there probably drafted this, the All-Disappointment Fantasy Team of 2015, through four weeks anyway:

• Andrew Luck (QB) - The gunslinger responsible for 40 TDs just one year ago has been caught in the crossfire of a coach-GM feud that won't end well and a terrible offensive line. After starting every game for his first three years, it's possible Luck will miss his second in a row on Thursday and might not look the same this year with a nasty shoulder separation.

• DeMarco Murray (RB) - After 12 games last season with 100+ yards, Murray's game-high through four weeks is 36 yards, and he's getting totally outplayed and passed up for Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles.  As Murray becomes more vocal about his lack of touches, you better believe Chip Kelly will start thinking of trading him for a conditional 7th-rounder in 2016.

• Lamar Miller (RB) - Lamar Miller also had a career rushing year in 2014, breaking 1,000 yards on the ground and racking up nine touchdowns.  He's now part of the Miami Dolphins' crumbling vortex of despair where what he could overcome with sheer talent will surely be eclipsed by locker room dysfunction for the next twelve weeks.

•  Calvin Johnson (WR) - Megatron owners, did you feel the twist of the knife last night when Johnson fumbled away what would have been the go-ahead touchdown against Seattle? That's how Detroit Lions fans have felt for sixty years, so show a little respect in solidarity.  Once a sure bet for yards and TDs, Megatron has yet to break 100 yards in a game and has scored only one touchdown to date in 2015. 

• TY Hilton (WR) - As Andrew Luck goes, so does TY Hilton who was widely slated as a top WR prospect in the 2015 fantasy draft.  Although Hilton has had steady yardage through four games, he has yet to find the end zone on those deep routes that fell like rain a year ago.

•  Jimmy Graham (TE) - True, there are plenty of tight end options worse than Jimmy Graham - it's been a very weak year for just about everyone not named Gronk.  But given the expectations and endless chatter around the Seahawks' trade for Graham, you'd think they'd be doing better than 2 - 2 (with a bogus non-penalty for batting) right now.  Despite being billed as an unguardable end zone threat, Graham has just two TDs so far this season and disappeared last night when Seattle's reeling offense needed another way to move the ball with Marshawn Lynch on the sideline.  Given how many fantasy participants probably drafted this guy in the third round, they'd probably take that one back right now if they could.

• Davante Adams (FLEX) - The flex All-Disappointment spot goes to a guy that got plenty of hype going into this season because he was going to take the injured Jorday Nelson's reps and become Aaron Rodgers' new favorite target.  Much to the contrary, the Packers picked former great James Jones off the street, Adams has less than 100 receiving yards so far this season, and he's also injured indeterminately with a high-ankle sprain.  How bout them apples?

• Texans Defense/Special Teams - This probably depends on how your league does scoring, but the Texans are near the bottom of the pack when it comes to that most important measure.  Despite the defensive acumen of J.J. Watt and Vince Wilfork, Houston is allowing 27 points per game and has had a mediocre 6 sacks so far in 2015.  Don't expect Watt to have realistic MVP hopes dashed again if this keeps up.

•  Mike Nugent (K) - And finally, a weirdly disappointing situation for Mike Nugent, the kicker for the Cincinnati Bengals.  The Bengals have been on fire through their first four games and currently have top five yardage and points per game on offense.  That means the Nuge is trading field goals from last year for extra points this year and falls in the bottom quartile for points among placekickers.  Talk about unintended consequences.

 

NFL Week 4 Picks

It's a crazy week for me with little time to waste, so let's get right to your Lady Blitz Week 4 NFL Picks!

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos (-6.5) - My this week is scant in top shelf games, so behold your Lady Blitz game of the week. This is the only matchup on the slate between two teams with winning records.  Yeesh.  If the Vikings were hosting this one, I think I'd take 'em, and they still have a shot given the defensive improvements they've made since getting steamrolled by Carlos Hyde in Week 1. Nevertheless, the Broncos have made offensive adjustments that fit Peyton Manning's style a lot more comfortably, so I reckon it'll be Denver at home.

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers - With Baltimore reeling at 0 - 3 and Pittsburgh forced to start Michael Vick on a short week, this game ought to be ugly.  That's good for the most brutal rivalry in the NFL, and you can almost count on this being a close game regardless.  Heck, does anyone remember when the Steelers pulled off the road game upset with Charlie Batch a few years ago?  (You don't have to answer that, Ravens fans)  Anyway, I'm half-inclined to pick Pittsburgh on the strength of Antonio Brown alone given Baltimore's abysmal pass defense so far this year.  But the Ravens would do well to stuff the run and dare Vick to throw after very few reps under center to prepare.

Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals (-4) - Poor Chiefs - they can't seem to get any relief as three out of their first four teams on the schedule are sitting at 3 - 0 right now.  Coming off a short week and another road game, I don't like their chances against a white-hot Bengals team either, but here's hoping they put up a good fight.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

New York Jets (-1.5) vs. Miami Dolphins - If last year's insanely dumb Falcons-Lions game is any indicator, this early affair in London could be quite the clown show.  I don't expect either of these teams to be playing their best, but it could make for some quirky entertainment with nothing else to watch at 9:30 on Sunday morning.  So I'm admittedly nervous about picking this game and have gone back and forth plenty.  Given the Jets' plethora of injuries, my best guess is that the jet lag--quite genuinely no pun intended--will make them worse for the wear and allow Miami to steal a desperation win.

Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) - How 'bout them Falcons.   They could easily go 9 - 0 before the bye with the Redskinks, Saints, Titans, Buccaneers and 49ers to come. The only hitch I see this week is if Arian Foster returns to the Texans lineup.  Atlanta looked mighty shaky last week against Joseph Randle in Dallas, and he's no Foster.  But assuming Foster is limited at best, I think the Falcons will keep flying through this sandbox schedule.

New York Giants at Buffalo Bills (-5.5) - Alright y'all.  I'm a believer in Tyrod Taylor - he obviously had a great preseason that landed him the starting gig, but who saw this coming?  Taylor's had some turnover issues but is rocking a near-75% completion rate and averaging more than 9 yards per attempt.  Thank Kanye some awesome person was savvy enough to pick him up off the waiver wire as Andrew Luck nurses a shoulder injury.  Buffalo's offense is humming, and I think this defense will give Eli Manning fits with its pressure packages.  An intra-state blowout is very possible unless Odell Beckham bails Manning out early and often.

Green Bay Packers (-8.5) at San Francisco 49ers - This is a near-guaranteed slaughter, so why is it on the Well Drink shelf?  The Packers have a prime opportunity for revenge after getting smacked around by the 49ers during their previous four meetings.  It probably won't be competitive, but it still be plenty entertaining to watch Green Bay's offensive fireworks show.

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-7) - After looking awesome in that Week 1 upset against the Seahawks, the Rams have returned to their natural habitat of offensive ineptitude.  That won't be good against a Cardinals team that is kicking everyone's teeth in on both sides of the ball right now.  If St. Louis can break through Arizona's stout offensive line, they've got a chance but otherwise, this team is toast in the desert sun.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-9) - Can Andrew Luck still beat the Jaguars with one arm?  Let's hope so.  The kind people of Indianapolis might just riot if the Colts drop one to lowly Jacksonville at home this week.

Carolina Panthers (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - I'm calling it - the Panthers are definitely the bad-good team in the undefeateds.  Their offense consists entirely of Cam Newton running away from his disintegrating pocket and hoping Greg Olsen is open.  It's worked against some very bad teams, and it should work just fine against the Bucs too.

Oakland Raiders (-3) at Chicago Bears - Let's check back in on the Bears - Jimmy Clausen?  No Alshon Jeffery? Ok then.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Washington Redskinks - I'm not sold that the Eagles will win this.  It took five takeaways and a special teams TD to topple the Jets last week, and the Redskinks are quietly having a very solid year on defense so far.  If Philly has a saving grace, I think it's realizing that Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles might be much more solid bets than the hobbled DeMarco Murray.

Cleveland Browns at San Diego Chargers (-7.5) - Hey look - here is a game that exists. How much more experience do the Browns really need with Josh McCown to know they are doomed?


Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (-4.5) - As it currently stands, this could be the kind of unanticipated stinker that the NBC executive conference room is dreading.  We won't have Romo, Dez or Jimmy Graham for sure, and we might be subjugated to a "shootout" between Brandon Weeden and Luke McCown.  Yikes.  The Saints used to be uber-reliable at home in prime time with Drew Brees, but since he'll certainly be at less than 100% if he even plays, the Cowboys still look to be too much for New Orleans' defense to handle.

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5) - I think I heard a huge collective sigh in Seattle all the way from the I-55 corridor last weekend.  The Legion of Boom is back and up to the task of bullying other NFC weakerthans.  The bumbling Lions should be no different.

Lovely Lady Locks 

I’m trying my hand at three points-based picks every week that I think are locks. I hope to count my Monopoly money by the end of the season and will keep you posted along with my overall picks record. For Week 4, my Lovely Lady Locks are:

• Cardinals -7 over Rams
• Packers -8.5 over 49ers
• Seahawks -9.5 over Lions

So How's My Pickin'?
Straight Up Record: 33 - 15
Against the Spread: 5 - 4