Q1: How Will the Patriots Attack the Legion of Boom?
In case you haven’t heard, Seattle’s secondary is second to none, which presents a challenge for the pass-happy offense of Tom Brady and Josh McDaniels. So how can the Patriots learn from the weaknesses of analogs like the Broncos to wear down the Legion of Boom and put up some points? Like the Packers and Panthers who fought the good fight in Seattle in previous weeks, New England should try its success up the gut on the ground early. Although Seattle finished the season with the third-best run defense in the league, the team uncharacteristically gave up over 130 yards on the ground in both playoff games. If you look at Seattle's regular season losses too, two out of four of them were at the hands of Jamaal Charles and DeMarco Murray, so opponents who run the ball well can give themselves an edge in wearing down that aggressive defense, keeping the Seahawks' offense off the field and creating short yardage situations on third down to open up the playbook. LaGarrette Blount isn't exactly a Pro Bowler like Murray and Charles, but his bowling ball style of running gives the Patriots a chance to match the Seahawks' physical style at the line of scrimmage if he can find early success. In the passing game, the Patriots' best chances are in the quick-release dink and dunk strategy with heavy doses of Shane Vereen and Julian Edelman. The better New England's receivers are at getting open early, the better Tom Brady will be at neutralizing the pass rush and giving his team enough chunks of yardage to keep the chains moving. McDaniels may draw up quite a few pick plays in the middle of the field to try to create some separation with the Legion of Boom and limit big hits after the catch. And if/when the Patriots get a goal line opportunity, that ball better go to the unguardable Rob Gronkowski on the slant.Q2: To Beast Mode or Not to Beast Mode?
This isn’t that great of a question because the two answers are Heck and Yeah! (Trying to keep it family-friendly, y’all.) In all likelihood, Russell Wilson’s four-interception disaster in the NFC Championship was a fluke, but I’d be wary about asking him to air it out early against that Patriots secondary nonetheless. You know Bill Belichick has been thinking about the weaknesses of Seattle’s receiving corps these past two weeks, and with a very capable defensive backfield led by Darrelle Revis, he should be able to corral the passing game without taking too many bodies off the line of scrimmage. So all that's to say, Seattle's best chances are to start things out on the ground with Lynch in tandem with Wilson. The Pats haven't had much experience against dual-threat quarterbacks this season, and the read option can definitely give the Seahawks a chance to spread out the defense without having to rely too much on the passing game if they don't want to. If this game goes how most have gone against Seattle in recent years, there will likely be some early pressure on Wilson and some tackles for a loss on Lynch, but it shouldn't take these guys off of their power running tempo too much as long as the defense holds up its end of the bargain. They're just grinding down that opposing front seven to a nub in order to break an untold number of arm tackles in the second half and keep the ball away from New England. And given that the Patriots are middle-of-the-pack on most defensive measures against the run, they might not have to wait that long to unleash the Beast.
Q3: Who’s Going to Get Out-Coached or Over-Coach?
I think it’ll depend on how close the point differential is throughout the game, but it’s a safe bet that both Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll will have plenty of tricks up their sleeve if the situation calls for it. After a postseason that has included a receiver-to-receiver touchdown pass and a fake field goal TD among other trick plays, you better believe the Pats’ and Seahawks’ game plans are going to look like choose-your-own-adventure flow charts. So who’s got the edge under the headset? I suspect Belichick will continue what he’s done over the past several weeks by adding some unseen wrinkles in how his receivers, linemen and secondary line up to minimize Seattle’s film study expertise. I also think the Patriots are more likely to employ an actual trick play at some point in those 60 minutes to try to extend a possession or generate spark if they fall behind, and it may be the difference in what could be a very close game. Of course, the Seahawks are sure to expect the unexpected going into this game after watching the Patriots do this all season, and complex schemes don’t always play so well against this team if last February’s rumble with the Broncos is any indicator. My guess is that Seattle will mostly stick to its guns with man coverage on defense and a power running game on offense. So to make a long story short, Belichick is more likely to outcoach Pete Carroll than the other way around given his unrivaled ability to find and exploit weaknesses. But Belichick's also more likely to fall victim to overcoaching if his gambles don't pay off against a team talented enough to play it straight and simply outmuscle just about everyone else.Q4: What About the Intangibles?
Indeed, what’s in that grab bag of hot streaks, quality wins vs. ugly losses and any kind of human interest stories that I can use to be an armchair psychologist here? Well, both of these teams raised eyebrows with slow 2 - 2 and 3 - 3 starts but managed to finish out red-hot with a combined record of 20 - 3 since Week 8. These were impressive finishes to be sure, but they weren't exactly against the top brass in the NFL. Both had relatively easy wins against the Colts and Panthers in the postseason but also some big scares against the Ravens and Packers with those two teams sharing many strengths with the Seahawks and Patriots, respectively. Seattle's main struggles have been with teams that run the ball very well and that can control the Seahawks on the ground either by getting out to an early lead or ruling the line of scrimmage. New England's main struggles have been against teams that run the ball well too and against teams that can get consistent pressure Tom Brady without blitzing. From an armchair psychology standpoint, I wonder a little about how Russell Wilson will respond after his worst NFL performance to date in the NFC Championship. Will he be hesitant to thread the ball the way he has many times before or will he have extra pep in his step after that wild comeback? On a larger level, will the Seahawks have the same sense of urgency this time that they did when they had everything to prove last year? Or will they get caught on their heels by a Patriots team desperate for its first Super Bowl win in the past decade despite three trips during that time? For the Patriots, the eye-rolling question is how they will "respond" to Ballghazi. If they get out to a slow start on Sunday, we'll hear all kinds of chatter about New England being distracted and perhaps about Tom Brady being unable to throw a legal ball well. But then we'd be forgetting that this team went 16 - 0 the season after the Spygate scandal and that Bill Belichick has quite the way of focusing his team only on the mission at hand.
Q5: What’s Your Dumb Prediction Already?
I think that if the Patriots can get that ground game going, if they can bottle up Beast Mode until at least the fourth quarter and if they can come out +1 or better in the turnover battle, they can win this thing. On the other hand, I just haven't seen an offense built around an "elite" passer able overcome the Legion of Boom in two years. There's a first time for everything, but Seattle's hard-hitting ways in the open field, resurgent pass rush and inevitable bulldozing on the ground with Lynch late in the game lead me to believe they have the matchup edge to repeat a Super Bowl win for the first time since... the 2004 Patriots. Seahawks 23, Patriots 19 MVP: Marshawn LynchSo How's My Postseason Pickin'?
So Far: 7 - 3
Against the Spread: 4 - 6
No comments:
Post a Comment