Playoff Predictions: 2015 Wild Card Round

The playoffs are finally here, and well, let's just say this wouldn't rank in the top eight wild card schedules of the last decade.  Nevertheless, football is football and playoff football is even better, so meet your 2015 wild card matchups and Lady Blitz picks:

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

The Run-Down: This heated rivalry needs no introduction.  The Steelers are red hot, finishing the season at 8 - 2 and snatching the division title from the Bengals in a dominant Week 17 performance.  The Ravens haven't been as flashy or consistent this season, but they've proven they can steal Pittsburgh's thunder before when they're at their best.

How the Ravens Can Win: Baltimore's defense got a big break this week since it sounds like Le'Veon Bell won't be suiting up on Saturday.  Unfortunately, the Ravens' pass defense has been a much bigger vulnerability this year, so expect lots of zone and double coverage on the speedy Antonio Brown and Martavius Bryant.  They can afford to back up a bit with the Steelers out of their usual ground game.  On offense, Baltimore needs a banner day from Joe Flacco - big plays and minimal mistakes to keep up with Pittsburgh and maybe compel Ben Roethlisberger to make some bad choices.

How the Steelers Can Win: By my amateur estimation, Pittsburgh's game plan is simple: air it out and make the Ravens' offense do the same.  Baltimore's secondary is anonymous and paper-thin at this point in the season, and Ben Roethlisberger has never looked better than this year with a spectacular pack of receivers.  It'll be easier said than done with Bell likely out, so Big Ben will need to be patient and perhaps utilize backups Dri Archer and Ben Tate in the screen game if the Ravens send pressure.  On the other side of the ball, the Steelers should leverage a good run defense to keep Baltimore in the air and bring the pass rush.  Joe Flacco has been just as inconsistent as ever this year, and Pittsburgh would have quite the edge against Bad Flacco.

Prediction: There may not be a pair of teams I'm worse at picking games for, so take this with a grain of salt, but it's hard not to see the Steelers winning this one.  The offensive and defensive matchups really favor Pittsburgh's strengths, and Baltimore arugably hasn't had a win against a quality team all season.  Steelers 31, Ravens 20

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-6.5)

The Run-Down: Didn't somebody tell these teams we can't have two underdogs in the same game?  If ever there was a "Nobody Believes In Us" Bowl (Bill Simmons trademark cited), it would be between the Ryan Lindley-led Cardinals and the 7-8-1 Panthers.  But with two teams playing with all the house money in the world, it might be more fun than you'd think.

How the Cardinals Can Win: Keep this game in the mud.  Those Lindley-led Cardinals are never going to win a shootout given that it took that guy nine games to throw his first touchdown, so Arizona needs a slow, physical no-hitter to win a difficult road game.  They did this to perfection against the Rams a few weeks back, and that could be a great template against an analogous Panthers team.  Bruce Arians had some nifty playcalling and misdirection on offense there to keep a talented defense guessing and out of sync.  Moreover, the more pressure and negative plays the Cardinals' defense can create without giving up big ones, the better their chances of waiting until opportunity strikes to get past the Panthers.

How the Panthers Can Win: I'm tempted to say Carolina should go for big plays early and often and force Arizona's offense to play from behind (i.e., force interception-prone Ryan Lindley to throw a lot).  But the Panthers' number one priority should be protecting Cam Newton, even if it means more help upfront and fewer receiving options from time to time.  When the Cardinals get the pass rush going, bad things tend to happen for their opponents, and Carolina just can't risk injury or overriding jitteriness to Newton.  Unless Arizona's offensive spare parts have transformed entirely from a week ago, the Panthers should have their chances even if a few drives stall.

Prediction: I'm hopeful that the Cardinals have at least one more upset in them since they've been so solid against the odds all season long.  After all, they have to play visitor to a team with four fewer wins than they do on Saturday.  But the Panthers' defense is getting back to form at just the right time while the Cardinals are on the ropes with a far-less-than-ideal quarterback situation, and that's a recipe for a defensive rout.  Panthers 17, Cardinals 6

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)

The Run-Down: It's trench warfare in Big D when one of the most physical defensive lines in the game meets the stoutest offensive line we've seen in a while. 


How the Lions Can Win: No team has been able to stop DeMarco Murray so far this season, but the Lions might just have the chops to contain him, especially now that poor numb-footed Ndamoukong Suh has found the courage to suit up this week.  So inspiring!  That would be huge for Detroit because Dallas has thrived not just on Murray moving the chains, but on setting up play action where Tony Romo is averaging nearly 11 yards per pass.  The Lions should look to the Cowboys' Thanksgiving loss to the Eagles as a blueprint - Philly ruled the line of scrimmage, holding Murray to less than 75 yards and sacking Romo four times.  On offense, Detroit should stick to its guns in the passing game - Dallas has gotten burned from time to time on the deep ball, which I've heard Calvin Johnson likes to catch sometimes.

How the Cowboys Can Win:  The Cowboys have a formidable challenge in Detroit's defensive line, but luckily the three-headed monster of Romo, Murray and Dez Bryant gives them a lot of options to mix up the play-calling and stretch that defense.  It'd be ideal for Dallas's offensive line to win in the ground game early on, but Scott Linehan would do well to have some diversity and new looks in the game plan in case that doesn't work.  Dallas hasn't had to play from behind often this year, and their style works best when they aren't in a rush to score.  On defense, I anticipate the Cowboys taking a similar tack as the Ravens.  The Lions' run game isn't a big concern, and with DT Henry Melton out, Dallas would be better off investing in coverage instead of a heavy pass rush to prevent big plays and get off the field on third down.

Prediction: Detroit's defense is quite a force to be reckoned with, but so is Dallas's offense.  The Cowboys averaged over 40 points per game in December, while the Lions haven't hit that number once this season, and if Dallas runs up the score early, this one's over.  Exhibit B: Detroit was 1 - 4 against teams with winning records this season, so I reckon they'll have to wait another year to break an awfully long playoff win drought.  Cowboys 27, Lions 20

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)

The Run-Down: And now for our most enigmatic matchup of the weekend between two teams that have had some high highs and low lows this season.  If this game comes down purely to passing, you already know what the outcome will be, but there are some big strengths and weaknesses elsewhere on these two rosters that could make this a much more intriguing game.

How the Bengals Can Win: Run. The. Dadgum. Ball.  Maybe things will be different now that Jeremy Hill is beasting, but the Bengals' last three playoff outings have been incredibly frustrating because they're built to run and decided to put everything on Andy Dalton's shoulders anyway to disastrous effect.  The Colts have been vulnerable at times against the run, and Cincy would gain a big advantage in controlling the clock, keeping Andrew Luck off the field, and wearing down the Colts' defense in case this thing devolves into a second-half shootout.  Dalton's passing game should be short and high-percentage - the guy has a hard time under the bright lights, and if A.J. Green can't go, it'll be a lot harder to find open receivers unless they get play action going.  On defense, getting pressure on Luck is key - sacks and long-yardage downs will force him to take more chances and increase the likelihood of costly turnovers.

How the Colts Can Win: I'm guessing this is going to be another Andrew Luck gunslinger special.  Indy has no problem airing it out, and given the state of their ground game, why waste downs on minimal gains?  Swift, early scores will force Cincy out of its rushing advantage and into the shaky hands of Playoffs Andy Dalton.  When these teams last met in Week 7, the Bengals ran the ball only 12 times in the entire game despite being down by only 10 at the half.  They probably won't repeat that mistake this time around, so Indy's defense will need to get aggressive at the line of scrimmage and keep the Jeremy Hill/Giovanni Bernard combo in check.  If the Colts become the shootout they want to see in the world, victory is all but assured.

Prediction: Lawdy, I really want to pick the Bengals because I think they're a more well-rounded team that couldn't be more motivated to get a wild card win after going 0 - 4 over the past five years.  But until Andy Dalton gives me any reason whatsoever to believe he can hold it together in January, I just can't get fooled three years in a row.  Colts 24, Bengals 21