Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)
The Run-Down: I think enough time has passed so that we don't have to keep calling this Fail Mary (n+1).0. Instead, it's shaping up to be an unlikely David and Goliath matchup between the league's best passing offense and passing defense. Aaron Rodgers has been playing hero ball with a torn calf lately, but he’ll have to run through a whole new level of gauntlet against the Legion of Boom on Sunday.How the Packers Can Win on Offense: Rodgers’ health presents the biggest question mark for Green Bay, but they should be somewhat encouraged by what they saw from the Panthers against on the ground last week. Carolina ran wild by Seattle standards for over 130 yards, and Eddie Lacy/the Packers’ offensive line has the muscle to balance this offensive attack, at least a little bit. I think the Packers will be best served by a methodical and conservative game plan, especially if it takes Rodgers a couple quarters to warm up on that calf like it did last week. The Seahawks thrive on turnovers, and if Green Bay takes too many chances early, they could find themselves in a big hole and on the shoulders of an ailing quarterback - a recipe for disaster at CenturyLink. Going with an uptempo short-to-medium passing game and wearing Seattle's pass rush out by running up the middle will allow the Packers to open up more room in the secondary as the game wears on. They'd probably also do well to add some help to the line to protect Rodgers from sacks and being forced to scramble in hopes that his third or fourth option is good enough to get open in time. The Broncos' near-win here from Week 3 is a prime example of how to chip away at this defense and not give up easy points.
How the Packers Can Win on Defense: There's no bones about it - the Packers are going to need their best defensive effort of the season on the ground to make it to the Super Bowl. Seattle is the top rushing offense in the league, not just for that brutal power running from Marshawn Lynch, but also from Russell Wilson with a read option game that tends to destroy winded linebackers across America. Dom Capers is going to need to get creative in how he lines up his edge rushers to get to Wilson or at least contain him in the pocket. They won't pull off a shut out, but preventing big plays on the ground will give Green Bay's decent secondary more opportunities to pick off or at least slow down No. 3. And if Julius Peppers can pull off another opportune fumble or two, that's about as good as the Packers can hope for in slowing down the Seahawks and creating a couple of extra scoring opportunities for themselves.
How the Seahawks Can Win on Defense: Aaron Rodgers may be hobbled, but even the Legion of Boom can't afford to go into this game too overconfident based on how well he's played these past few weeks in spite of injury. Of course, the Seahawks can still use Rodgers' limitations to their advantage. Expect big roles for Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril upfront to put pressure on him to throw the ball before plays develop and force him to scramble with a great deal of discomfort. Nevertheless, while some may be tempted to say that Seattle should force Rodgers to throw in this one, he's proven he can thread the needle and beat a lot of good defenses that way, even at less than 100%. In this case, the Seahawks might respect the presumptive MVP's talent enough to keep their focus on the secondary even if that means giving Eddie Lacy a couple extra inches on the ground. It takes just one blink of an eye to let Jordy Nelson get past you and into the end zone, so I expect Richard Sherman and friends to be physical and vigilant at the line of scrimmage so that these receivers don't have time to get open before the play is over.
Prediction: If I were picking these games purely for Super Bowl entertainment value, I'd love to see a rematch between a healthier Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady in two weeks. But Rodgers playing hurt worries me only half as much as the Packers' run defense against a deadly efficient and physical Seahawks offense. I think Seattle has a field day against Green Bay's front seven, Dom Capers finally gets fired and the Seahawks earn another ticket to the big dance in style. Seahawks 30, Packers 17
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-6.5)
The Run-Down: Andrew Luck will try to get his first career win against the Patriots in blustery Foxboro this weekend. In their previous three meetings, the Colts have lost to New England by 20+ points, but after two dominant outings against the Bengals and Broncos, Indy has to be feeling at least a little more confident on both sides of the ball. Of course, the Patriots are peaking at a great time too.How the Colts Can Win on Offense: Indy might take a page from Baltimore and try to establish some balance in the run game with... Boom Herron? It's a little bit of a stretch, but given that Justin Forsett was averaging nearly five yards per carry last week and that the Colts will want to keep their defense fresh as long as possible against Brady. Rather than relying too heavily on their inefficient running backs, I'd like to see the Colts set up a few designed runs for Luck, using his underrated mobility to open up the Pats' defense. At the end of the day, Indianapolis will have to win this one through the air with Luck and a versatile pack of receivers, but his ability to scramble successfully could freeze the Patriots' defense, giving him more room to run and throw the ball in order to keep moving the chains. Luck's top receiving targets will likely be the speedy T.Y. Hilton whenever he beats the secondary on the edge and Coby Fleener, given New England's struggles to defend tight ends in the middle of the field.
How the Colts Can Win on Defense: After their last few drubbings at the hands of New England, you better believe the Colts are going to pay a lot of attention to their ground game. If you recall that one week when Jonas Gray became a household name, it was against Indianapolis when the Patriots lined up an extra body on offense for most snaps and let Gray destroy the Colts for 200 yards and 4 TDs. Indy's run defense has looked a lot better in January, keeping Jeremy Hill and C.J. Anderson to less than 100 yards in their past two games, but they benefited quite a bit from maintaining big leads against opponents struggling to pass the ball. The Colts won't be able to sell out against the run when Tom Brady takes the field, and they'll need to put as much focus as strength as possible into the nanoseconds after the ball snaps to read runs and try to slow down the Pats' elusive receiving corps before they get into the open field. For the most part, the only teams that have been successful against New England this year have been able to stuff the run and get to Brady consistently. If the Colts defensive line can't get there, they'll need another exceptional shut out performance in the secondary from Vontae Davis & co. to buy more time against the Pats at the line of scrimmage.
How the Patriots Can Win on Defense: Unless Boom Herron goes off the way of Jonas Gray, the Patriots shouldn't have too much trouble against Indianapolis's running game, and that should allow them to clog up Luck's passing lanes quite a bit in the secondary. Getting decent pressure on Luck would be nice but it's arguably not necessary as long as New England can hang with a talented receiving corps. The two things the Pats defense cannot afford to do is to let T.Y. Hilton get behind them or let Coby Fleener eat up yards in the middle since tight ends have had very productive games against this defense all season. These two are Luck's favorite [and most consistent] targets, so the earlier New England can take them out of the game, the better their chances of taking him down in the pocket or forcing him to throw to less utilized and more error-prone receivers.
Prediction: I'm hopeful that the Colts' learning curve against the Patriots and their confidence these past two weeks will make for a much better game than we've seen between these two teams in recent years. Nevertheless, New England still has a big edge in just how versatile this offense is, able to beat opponents in a variety of ways that Indianapolis will only be able to stop for so long. Patriots 34, Colts 27
So How's My Postseason Pickin'?
So Far: 5 - 3
Against the Spread: 3 - 5
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