Playoff Predictions: 2015 Divisional Round

On to the divisional round, which on paper is a much better slate of games than last week, so don't let all of these healthy home team point spreads fool you.  If I'm being totally honest, the only team I feel certain will come out a winner this week is the Seahawks, so allow me to overanalyze and hedge my predictions for you in anticipation of some instant classics this weekend:

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-7)

The Run-Down: It’s the underrated rivalry that keeps on giving! Just when you thought the Ravens were DOA and the Patriots could backstroke into the Super Bowl, Baltimore’s defense is starting to look scary-good again and is probably the least intimidated team in the league when it comes to playing in Foxboro. This has the makings of a classic test of brute force and coaching strategy.

How the Ravens Can Win: Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: The Ravens can beat the Patriots with that Grade A pass rush and some decent containment in the secondary. Tom Brady has shown in previous outings with Baltimore that he can get rattled if he or his receivers get pushed around and have their rhythm disrupted. Moreover, the Pats aren't big on running the ball, so that could free up the Ravens linebackers to create tighter passing lanes in the defensive backfield - that worked pretty darn well against the Steelers last week, after all. On offense, Baltimore will get what it can out of Justin Forsett to control the clock, and they'll probably have to sacrifice Torrey Smith to Revis Island. Still, if Joe Flacco's feeling it in the post game, don't be surprised if the Ravens take some shots down field as they've done from time to time in New England to good effect. Flacco and (T.) Smith are among the best in the league in drawing pass interference calls, and they usually don't mind missing a couple of connections if it ultimately pays off with a big equalizing score.

How the  Patriots Can Win: This game seems like a prime candidate for the Patriots to dust off that fast-paced no huddle they used to employ quite frequently under OC [and motivated head coaching candidate] Josh McDaniels.  The Ravens' pass rush is merciless and peaking at the right time, so if the Pats have a chance to get ahead, they need to knock that young and banged up secondary around early on. I suspect Baltimore's defense will focus a whole lot of attention on Rob Gronkowski, so Tom Brady should be prepared to exploit that with the likes of Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Tim Wright among other supporting cast members. It's all tempo and spacing with this offense. On defense, New England's best bet is to limit Justin Forsett on early downs and force the Ravens to pass more than they're comfortable with. The odds are Joe Flacco won't repeat the nearly-flawless passing performance he had in the playoffs a couple years ago, so the Patriots should roll the dice on Bad Flacco rearing his head at some point. New England's defense has had 15 interceptions in wins this season compared to just one pick in their losses, and any turnovers will be huge in a game that I suspect will come down to one possession.

Prediction: I think the Ravens have a better shot than either the Broncos or Colts of beating the Patriots this postseason, so I expect this to be a close, physical, edge-of-the-fingertips kind of game.  New England could struggle to protect Tom Brady with a replacement left tackle, and that should make you think twice about favoring these guys by a touchdown.  So I may come to regret switching my initial pick because karma says the pendulum has to swing the Patriots' way, but I like Baltimore's defensive matchups too much not to take a gamble on them this week.  Either way, one of these two teams ought to be in Arizona in a few weeks. Ravens 23, New England 21

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-11)

The Run-Down: If you like brutal defensive masterpieces, this just might be the game for you! The Panthers entered the playoffs as a laughing stock with a losing record, but that front seven is no joke. Still, it’ll be a tall task for Carolina to get past the postseason favorite Seahawks who know a thing or two about a punishing defense themselves.

How the Panthers Can Win: I’m guessing Cam Newton is looking at lots of game film of the 49ers and Colin Kaepernick from seasons past, but hopefully taking it in with a grain of salt. Kaepernick’s mobility in combination with a strong arm and steady running game usually gave the Niners a chance to take Seattle down to the wire in the rivalry’s more recent chapters. His risk-taking in the passing game cost them at times though. Newton certainly has similar scrambling talents and arguably a better arm than Kaep, so if he can catch the Seahawks’ mighty defense a little off guard with the read option and some well-executed improvisation, he may be able to open up a couple more scoring opportunities for Carolina. But given that Newton has looked a little off in the pocket all season, I’d advise the Panthers to stick to their ground game to the extent possible. Jonathan Stewart has been spectacularly productive in recent weeks, so any opportunity to wear down Seattle’s front line while limiting the likelihood of turnovers would give Carolina a chance in a hostile environment. There’s no denying that the Panthers’ defense is legitimate and playing its best football of the season, so they should treat all phases of the game as a war of attrition. Staying patient with the run, focusing on field position instead of explosive but high-risk plays, and taking advantage of the Seahawks’ shaky offensive line might just get it done for a red-hot Panthers team.

How the Seahawks Can Win: The way I see it, Carolina’s offensive strengths and weaknesses really fit Seattle’s defense to a tee. Cam Newton has had trouble hitting receivers accurately all season, which is at least in part due to the Panthers’ lack of depth and playmaking in that area. That should give the Seahawks more than enough permission to stick with man coverage so they can load up the box to stuff Jonathan Stewart and keep Newton in the pocket in long downs situations. The bigger question is how Seattle’s offense will hold up against a very good Panthers front seven.  This is where Russell Wilson's dynamic playmaking abilities can really give the Seahawks an advantage.  They should dial up a variety pack of option plays to confuse Carolina with different looks and give Wilson time to scramble to the edge and find open receivers.  The Panthers' weakness is still very much their reshuffled secondary, and the Seahawks have a great passer who can take advantage of that with controlled chaos in and around the pocket.  I could see Seattle employing a fairly pass-heavy first half and then bringing out Marshawn Lynch to hammer home the win once the Panthers are left gasping with their hands on their hips.

Prediction: My overconfident-to-the-point-of-jinxing-things feeling about this game is that it's not a question of whether or not the Seahawks will win, but whether they will cover that ambitious point spread.  I think the Panthers can keep this one close for a couple of quarters by virtue of their resurrected defense, but Seattle should have a serious advantage at the line of scrimmage and in the open field when Carolina has the ball.  Things could get ugly depending on how early they get to Newton.  Seahawks 20, Panthers 10

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-6)

The Run-Down: In a game sure to inspire a legion of bandwagoners to put flags on cars this week, two of ‘merica’s most storied and successful franchises will duke it out in an Ice Bowl-caliber classic at Lambeau. With the Cowboys going 8 - 0 on the road this season and the Packers going 8 - 0 at home and with some of the biggest offensive playmakers in the game, it might just live up to the hype.


How the Cowboys Can Win: It turns out Green Bay isn't exactly the best team against the run, so the Cowboys would do well to keep doing what works for them with DeMarco Murray.  Things will be pretty chilly at Lambeau, and the Packers have gotten steamrolled before by teams in control on the ground, even at home (see: 49ers, Divisional Round 2014).  Like I said last week, this Dallas offense lives and dies by its play action mojo, and given Green Bay's active pass rush, Tony Romo would do best to fake out Clay Matthews & co. to buy an extra second in the pocket when they need it.  On defense, the Cowboys need to take advantage of Aaron Rodgers' limited mobility.  A torn calf muscle sounds like no fun at all, and it might be a big problem if Rodgers can't roll into passing lanes on the outside - that is his bread and butter as much as Romo's is play action.  That means the Cowboys need a historic performance from their edge rushers to keep Rodgers at bay and feeling the pressure.  Dallas's secondary simply won't be able to hang if No. 12 gets to wait for his many capable receivers to get open, and he's deadly against blitzes, so they'll have to make do with what they have upfront.

How the Packers Can Win: Let's hope Aaron Rodgers isn't too banged up to do his typical razzling and dazzling through the air.  That is easily Dallas's biggest weakness, and it almost cost them when Matt Stafford got the better of that secondary in the first half last week.  The Cowboys' pass rush is average on a good day, and Green Bay needs to put its own Pro Bowl-caliber offensive line to work so that Rodgers doesn't have to scramble around for time on a gimpy leg.  Engaging Romo in a shootout isn't as surefire of a winning strategy as it's been in past seasons, but it will give the Packers a lot more of an edge in generating sacks and turnovers than they'd have with Murray bludgeoning them into the 4th quarter.  Dallas had a tough time against the Lions' front four last time, so maybe the Packers can find some weaknesses on film that will help them rattle Romo and keep the Cowboys out of scoring position.

Prediction: This game could well come down to which of the two best offensive lines in the league holds up, or conversely, how each opposing defensive line fares against them.  I get a little nervous for the Packers because while Rodgers is quite obviously their key to the Super Bowl, they may have to be more conservative than they'd like to avoid reaggravating his calf and blowing Green Bay's chances altogether.  But on the assumption two weeks of rest will allow the guy to play better than he did during a big Week 17 performance and that the Packers' offensive line will hold up, I gotta go home team here.  Packers 31, Cowboys 27

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-7)

The Run-Down: If only there was some interesting storyline connecting Peyton Manning’s Broncos to the Colts… hmmm… Horse names! Got it! Anyway, our divisional round closer features the past, present and future of quarterbacking at its best and a couple of sneaky defenses that will try their best to corral the shootout.

How the Colts Can Win: This may sound counterintuitive to what we’ve known about the Broncos since Peyton Manning signed on, but I’d advocate for an uptempo, pass-heavy attack from Andrew Luck on offense. Manning just hasn’t looked like himself over the past month, and Denver has had to rely heavily on C.J. Anderson and the defensive grind to get past opponents as a result. We’re at a bizarro tipping point with the Broncos where it actually feels advisable to engage Manning in a shootout, at least with Luck at the helm. The Broncos’ defensive strength is certainly their line, so the more receiving targets Luck can get to early and often, the thinner those linebackers will have to spread themselves to avoid giving up big plays. Indy might as well replace its running game with screens to avoid inefficient downs and continue to open up the field. On defense, you can’t ask for much better than the Colts did last week against the Bengals, and that may still work to a degree against the Broncos. If Indy can shut Anderson down, that’ll put a lot of pressure on Manning to step up and force some throws that may be a bit more errant than we’re used to.  Still, the Colts allowed the Bengals to average over 5 yards per run last week, and they cannot afford to give Denver that much room when the Broncos have a much better passer and set of receivers.  Indy needs to use its frontlines to take away running lanes and chip well at the line of scrimmage keep the Thomasas from getting behind them in the secondary.

How the Broncos Can Win: With Peyton Manning and a full complement of receivers starting, the Broncos should have a whole lot more room to run than the Bengals did.  Even though Manning may have lost a step toward the end of the season, he can still make the Colts pay in the short and medium passing game if they don't provide proper coverage.  I anticipate that Denver will go heavy in the run and screen/slant passing game given the temperature and Manning's recent stagnation.  That style of dinking and dunking will allow the Broncos to hog the ball and wear out Indy's defense in that thin Mile High air.  On defense, Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware and Terrance Knighton have the chops to put Andrew Luck on the ground and make the Colts' paltry running game a non-factor.  Indy often has to ask Luck to do too much, and the number of hits he's taken and turnovers he's had this season are evidence of that imbalance.  The last thing the Broncos defense can do is give Luck time and early success through the air because, weirdly, they're all kinds of ground-and-pound now.

Prediction: Anything is possible for the Colts if Andrew Luck plays efficient, mistake-free football. But the Broncos defense is good enough in my opinion to keep him off-rhythm and break up a few big plays, especially since they won't have to spend a lot of energy on Indy's non-existent running game.  So unless Denver's offense totally stalls or coughs up the ball more than once or twice, this is the Broncos' game to lose.  Broncos 37, Colts 24


So How's My Postseason Pickin'?
So Far: 3 - 1
Against the Spread: 1 - 3