Playoff Predictions: Super Bowl XLIX

And then, by hell and high water, a miraculous comeback and a Blount beatdown, there were two. It all ends one way or another for the Seahawks and Patriots this Sunday in Arizona. Although the Patriots’ passing attack and the Seahawks’ hard-hitting defense might suggest a repeat of last year’s rout in the Meadowlands, I expect a much more mercifully competitive game this time around. You’ve probably had your fill of “analysis” from me and others leading up to the big dance about both of these teams in all phases of the game to this point. So without further adieu, I give you five critical questions going into Super Bowl Sunday and my prediction if you haven’t already skipped all of this and scrolled down to the bottom of a page. Seriously, if I had an Illuminati secret, I’d type it here where no one is reading. Anyway:

Q1: How Will the Patriots Attack the Legion of Boom? 

In case you haven’t heard, Seattle’s secondary is second to none, which presents a challenge for the pass-happy offense of Tom Brady and Josh McDaniels. So how can the Patriots learn from the weaknesses of analogs like the Broncos to wear down the Legion of Boom and put up some points? Like the Packers and Panthers who fought the good fight in Seattle in previous weeks, New England should try its success up the gut on the ground early. Although Seattle finished the season with the third-best run defense in the league, the team uncharacteristically gave up over 130 yards on the ground in both playoff games.  If you look at Seattle's regular season losses too, two out of four of them were at the hands of Jamaal Charles and DeMarco Murray, so opponents who run the ball well can give themselves an edge in wearing down that aggressive defense, keeping the Seahawks' offense off the field and creating short yardage situations on third down to open up the playbook.  LaGarrette Blount isn't exactly a Pro Bowler like Murray and Charles, but his bowling ball style of running gives the Patriots a chance to match the Seahawks' physical style at the line of scrimmage if he can find early success.  In the passing game, the Patriots' best chances are in the quick-release dink and dunk strategy with heavy doses of Shane Vereen and Julian Edelman.  The better New England's receivers are at getting open early, the better Tom Brady will be at neutralizing the pass rush and giving his team enough chunks of yardage to keep the chains moving.  McDaniels may draw up quite a few pick plays in the middle of the field to try to create some separation with the Legion of Boom and limit big hits after the catch.  And if/when the Patriots get a goal line opportunity, that ball better go to the unguardable Rob Gronkowski on the slant.

Q2: To Beast Mode or Not to Beast Mode?

This isn’t that great of a question because the two answers are Heck and Yeah! (Trying to keep it family-friendly, y’all.) In all likelihood, Russell Wilson’s four-interception disaster in the NFC Championship was a fluke, but I’d be wary about asking him to air it out early against that Patriots secondary nonetheless. You know Bill Belichick has been thinking about the weaknesses of Seattle’s receiving corps these past two weeks, and with a very capable defensive backfield led by Darrelle Revis, he should be able to corral the passing game without taking too many bodies off the line of scrimmage.  So all that's to say, Seattle's best chances are to start things out on the ground with Lynch in tandem with Wilson.  The Pats haven't had much experience against dual-threat quarterbacks this season, and the read option can definitely give the Seahawks a chance to spread out the defense without having to rely too much on the passing game if they don't want to.  If this game goes how most have gone against Seattle in recent years, there will likely be some early pressure on Wilson and some tackles for a loss on Lynch, but it shouldn't take these guys off of their power running tempo too much as long as the defense holds up its end of the bargain.  They're just grinding down that opposing front seven to a nub in order to break an untold number of arm tackles in the second half and keep the ball away from New England.  And given that the Patriots are middle-of-the-pack on most defensive measures against the run, they might not have to wait that long to unleash the Beast.

Q3: Who’s Going to Get Out-Coached or Over-Coach? 

I think it’ll depend on how close the point differential is throughout the game, but it’s a safe bet that both Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll will have plenty of tricks up their sleeve if the situation calls for it. After a postseason that has included a receiver-to-receiver touchdown pass and a fake field goal TD among other trick plays, you better believe the Pats’ and Seahawks’ game plans are going to look like choose-your-own-adventure flow charts. So who’s got the edge under the headset? I suspect Belichick will continue what he’s done over the past several weeks by adding some unseen wrinkles in how his receivers, linemen and secondary line up to minimize Seattle’s film study expertise. I also think the Patriots are more likely to employ an actual trick play at some point in those 60 minutes to try to extend a possession or generate spark if they fall behind, and it may be the difference in what could be a very close game. Of course, the Seahawks are sure to expect the unexpected going into this game after watching the Patriots do this all season, and complex schemes don’t always play so well against this team if last February’s rumble with the Broncos is any indicator. My guess is that Seattle will mostly stick to its guns with man coverage on defense and a power running game on offense.  So to make a long story short, Belichick is more likely to outcoach Pete Carroll than the other way around given his unrivaled ability to find and exploit weaknesses.  But Belichick's also more likely to fall victim to overcoaching if his gambles don't pay off against a team talented enough to play it straight and simply outmuscle just about everyone else.

Q4: What About the Intangibles?

Indeed, what’s in that grab bag of hot streaks, quality wins vs. ugly losses and any kind of human interest stories that I can use to be an armchair psychologist here? Well, both of these teams raised eyebrows with slow 2 - 2 and 3 - 3 starts but managed to finish out red-hot with a combined record of 20 - 3 since Week 8.  These were impressive finishes to be sure, but they weren't exactly against the top brass in the NFL.  Both had relatively easy wins against the Colts and Panthers in the postseason but also some big scares against the Ravens and Packers with those two teams sharing many strengths with the Seahawks and Patriots, respectively.  Seattle's main struggles have been with teams that run the ball very well and that can control the Seahawks on the ground either by getting out to an early lead or ruling the line of scrimmage.  New England's main struggles have been against teams that run the ball well too and against teams that can get consistent pressure Tom Brady without blitzing.  From an armchair psychology standpoint, I wonder a little about how Russell Wilson will respond after his worst NFL performance to date in the NFC Championship. Will he be hesitant to thread the ball the way he has many times before or will he have extra pep in his step after that wild comeback?  On a larger level, will the Seahawks have the same sense of urgency this time that they did when they had everything to prove last year?  Or will they get caught on their heels by a Patriots team desperate for its first Super Bowl win in the past decade despite three trips during that time?  For the Patriots, the eye-rolling question is how they will "respond" to Ballghazi.  If they get out to a slow start on Sunday, we'll hear all kinds of chatter about New England being distracted and perhaps about Tom Brady being unable to throw a legal ball well. But then we'd be forgetting that this team went 16 - 0 the season after the Spygate scandal and that Bill Belichick has quite the way of focusing his team only on the mission at hand.

Q5: What’s Your Dumb Prediction Already?

I think that if the Patriots can get that ground game going, if they can bottle up Beast Mode until at least the fourth quarter and if they can come out +1 or better in the turnover battle, they can win this thing.  On the other hand, I just haven't seen an offense built around an "elite" passer able overcome the Legion of Boom in two years.  There's a first time for everything, but Seattle's hard-hitting ways in the open field, resurgent pass rush and inevitable bulldozing on the ground with Lynch late in the game lead me to believe they have the matchup edge to repeat a Super Bowl win for the first time since... the 2004 Patriots.  Seahawks 23, Patriots 19   MVP: Marshawn Lynch



So How's My Postseason Pickin'?
So Far: 7 - 3
Against the Spread: 4 - 6

Who Should I Cheer for in the Super Bowl? Reasons to Love and Hate the Patriots and Seahawks

Blogger's Note: Hey, look!  It's my 200th post just in time for the Super Bowl!

We’re less than a week away from Super Bowl XLIX, and the hype/controversy storm is swirling. There are the few and proud New England and Seattle fans who are waiting for their shot at another Lombardi Trophy on Sunday. For the record, I'm going Patriots because Rob Gronkowski needs a ring, dang it!  Also, a significant portion of my readership will hobble me if I don't go Pats, and I like having the ability to walk. But for that other 94%-ish of fans who’ve watched their own teams go down in somewhere between predictable and agonizing fashion this year, you’re probably still on the fence about who to adopt until September finally rolls around again. Fear not, dear reader! Here’s the fair and balanced Lady Blitz guide for you to weigh your options with Reasons to Love and Hate the Patriots and Seahawks:

Reasons to Love the Patriots

It’s the Year of the Gronk - This year, only two players in the entire NFL were voted All Pros unanimously and only one of them made the playoffs (the other being J.J. Watt). It’s laughable to put any tight end in the same stratosphere as a healthy Rob Gronkowski, and this season he picked up right where he left off the last time the Patriots made the Super Bowl. Dude is an unguardable certainty in the end zone and in the middle of the field, and unlike your Jimmy Grahams and Julius Thomases of the world, he’s a spectacular run blocker too. He parties in ways that 20-year-old you couldn’t have dreamed of, much less been able to afford. He even inspired some delightfully cringe-worthy fan erotica that will force you to rethink the capabilities of human imagination, or not. But I digress. The point is, Gronk is the brotastic keystone to this high-flying offense, and he gives the Pats their best shot to win against that scary Seattle defense. Ever since he got back to full strength in Week 5 against the Bengals, the Pats have gone 12 - 1 and the Gronk has twerked his way to a second Super Bowl appearance.

This Could Be the Last Hurrah for the Brady/Belichick Dynasty - As we saw from Peyton Manning just a few weeks ago, you can never quite predict how or when the decline will come but it will come, even for a Hall of Fame quarterback. Tom Brady is 36 and seeking out his fourth Super Bowl ring, a QB feat most recently accomplished by Brady’s childhood idol Joe Montana. Not everyone loves the Brady/Belichick dynasty as a rooting interest, but we probably won’t see another truly dominant franchise stretch like this one for a long time. Since Brady first took the helm for an injured Drew Bledsoe in 2001, the Patriots have had a winning record every single year, had a 16 - 0 regular season, won their division 12 times, won 19 playoff games, went to 9 conference championships and will have gone to 6 Super Bowls by this time next week. But for all that success, they haven’t won the big one in over a decade, and no one knows how many more chances they’ll have as the Andrew Lucks and AFC Norths of the world wait on the doorstep each year. This might be the Pats’ last best chance to make a little more history during an era every single other team would kill for, and they thankfully won’t have the chance to be embarrassed by Eli Manning this time.

Their Coaching Shenanigans Are Fun! - I’m not talking about any cheating antics… yet (see the next section). I’m talking about the kind of insane scheme designs and strategic adjustments the Patriots make on a weekly basis to outwit opponents and make it impossible to predict what you’ll get out of this offense or defense next. If you’re an Xs and Os nerd, you can’t help but fawn over the ways this team innovates to expose others’ weaknesses and stay one step ahead in the chess match. Take New England’s first game against the Colts when they added an extra lineman on most offensive snaps and made Jonas Gray [a very temporary] household name. In that same game, they went against conventional wisdom that says you should put your best corner on the best receiver so they could bracket T.Y. Hilton and put Darrelle Revis on Indy’s #2. Against the Ravens in the divisional round, the Patriots transitioned deftly to the no-huddle in the second half without a single running play and finally let former college QB Julian Edelman throw the ball to Danny Amendola after keeping that play under wraps for six freaking years. They also threw John Harbaugh and Baltimore’s secondary off with some bizarre substitutions and eligibility changes at the line of scrimmage to keep them guessing [poorly] where Brady was headed next. So if you want to expect the unexpected in coaching strategy, the hooded dark lord is your guy.

Reasons to Hate the Patriots

They Definitely Cheat and Ginger Hammer Don’t Care - I’m firmly in the “this deflated ball scandal is overblown” camp given that: 1) it didn’t really impact the Patriots’ performance in a run-heavy blowout, 2) apparently a lot of teams do this to some degree, and 3) its scandalization benefited heavily from the slowest media week of the NFL season. I’m also in the camp that Ballghazi is a much better scandal name than Deflategate. Enough with the -Gates, already. But they definitely cheated here. I trust in the science of Bill Nye and Neil deGrasse Tyson far more than I do in the convoluted, delayed explanations of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, anyway. Had this been New England's only infraction in modern memory, I don't think it'd get a lot of air time (punny, I know!).  But it only served to revive the ghosts of Spygate 2007 during which the Patriots were caught filming opponents' defensive signals and for which Roger Goodell doled out a wrist-slap fine and single lost draft pick.  Given that the NFL has no interest in dealing with this scandal until the offseason and that Goodell and Patriots owner Robert Kraft are exceptionally chummy, many have speculated that this will all get swept under the rug too.  So unless you're a diehard Pats fan with a lot of great rationalizations we can't wait to hear, you're probably seething a little bit at all of the Patriots' righteous indignation and the league's continued, inevitable inconsistency in handling these disciplinary issues.  It has certainly given New England's critics more ammo to put an asterisk next to an extraordinary dynastic run whether or not that is deserved.

Tom Brady Is Kind of a Tool - I've known many a Patriots fan to gush about Tom Brady and then in a moment of clarity add that they would absolutely hate the guy if he played for any other team.  After so many spectacular seasons, it's easy to forget that No. 12 was basically Mr. Irrelevant when he was first drafted in the sixth round.  Heck, it's easy to forget that people thought he was done or headed to Houston just four months ago after an uncharacteristically slow start to this season, so I simply cannot knock Tom Brady the quarterback. But as a person, he strikes me as someone you'd actively try to avoid at a party for his overly intense toolishness. The guy wears Uggs and dog collars by choice for crying out loud, and he's back to his headbutting bro-ed out ways on the field too. You may think I'm reading too much into this, but why else would the guy's teammates continually leave their best player hanging on the bench?  There's something to that.  So just remember, if you decide to cheer for the Patriots this weekend, you're also cheering for this:

They’re Spurs-Boring - I know I've probably made this comparison one too many times already, but it's hard to find more fitting doppelgangers than the New England Patriots and the San Antonio Spurs.  That's a great thing if you're talking purely about wins and Hall of Famers, but these two teams have found a way to make winning exceptionally boring to the casual observer.  The Spurs and Patriots haven't had a losing season since 1997 and 2000, respectively, they've won a collective 11 league championships during that time, and yet there's no bandwagon to be seen because they are so by-the-book in their fundamentals and roster building with no warts and few charismatic superstars to show for it.  Belichick and Popovich are masterminds in finding those subtle wrinkles that will give their teams the edge without much flash, and they usually seem like they'd rather go in for a root canal than talk to the media about anything of substance.  But they just keep winning the same way that the sun just keeps coming up and paint keeps peeling.  Woohoo?

Reasons to Love the Seahawks

The Legion of Boom Is Still Great - It's logical to expect a little drop off every time a team has a dominant season and braces for a subsequent Super Bowl hangover.  Indeed, Seattle looked a little shaky after they dropped more losses in their first ten weeks this season than they did in all of 2013.  But then Seattle's defense turned the water off and notched eight straight wins to get to the Super Bowl again. For the second year in a row, the Seahawks lead the league in defensive points and yards allowed, and they are #1 against the pass and #3 against the run.  While they weren't as masterful in generating turnovers during this regular season as they were last year, they've already forced a fumble and four interceptions in their two playoff games including a beautiful 90-yard pick six by Kam Chancellor.  From Chancellor to Richard Sherman to Earl Thomas, it's still suffocating to try to throw the ball at all, much less to throw the ball well against this team.  You better believe Seattle will be leaning on LOB for another heavy-hitting beatdown against Tom Brady & co. on Sunday, and it will be another treat to watch.

Marshawn Lynch Hates the Man - Nevermind the total contradiction that Marshawn Lynch gets paid ungodly amounts of money to be in the NFL. Other than that, he’s just about as anti-establishment as his regular crotch grabs for the camera would indicate.  Whether you feel Lynch's antics are heroically rebellious or just childish, they certainly have a way of underscoring how ridiculous the NFL's policies tend to be. While we wait in hot anticipation to see what will become of the Patriots' deflation scandal, for example, the league has wasted no time letting Lynch know his team will be penalized for 15 yards if he grabs his crotch in the end zone again.  The NFL also threatened to bar him from playing in the NFC Championship had he worn all-gold shoes instead of the Seahawks' standard-issue cleats. Far more ridiculous than any of this of course is the tug of war between Lynch and the league's media policy.  He has been fined $150,000 by the NFL during the past two seasons for refusing to speak with reporters during mandatory media time, and most of his interviews since that time have consisted of repeating 1 - 2 word answers to every question, a pretty enjoyable middle-finger of a loophole to the NFL's iron fist.  Love him or hate him, Marshawn Lynch tends to bring out the worst in a league office that couldn't look more out of touch and out of control than when it does when trying to wrestle down Beast Mode.  Many opposing linebackers know the feeling.

Pete Carroll Is the Anti-Belichick - File this one under "Reasons to Hate the Seahawks" if you're a Patriots fan since Pete Carroll was oustered to make way for Belichick in New England 15 years ago.  But if you don't care for the gruff command-and-control ways of the Patriots coach, Carroll might just be your guy.  Ever since the Seahawks pulled off the upset against the heavily favored Saints in the 2011 Wild Card, Seattle has held Pete Carroll in its loving arms and never let go.  He's an impossibly cheery, gum-chewing optimist who turned the Seahawks into a perennial contender in just three years, but he and his players still play like scrappy underdogs with everything in the world to prove.  I pretty much wrote all of this to point you to Andrew Sharp's brilliant piece on Grantland where he compares Belichick to college basketball's Coach K and Carroll to John Calipari.  Belichick and Coach K are "the last vestiges of the idea that supreme authority and a fearsome temper are the best ways to run a team. The rest of the word has moved on, but these two have been grandfathered in to the future, and they are both too successful to question... If they lose, they get excused, because they just didn’t have quite enough pieces this year. They’ve also been more successful than anyone we’ve seen in the past 25 years. It’s not like either one has anything left to prove."  On the other hand, Carroll, like Calipari "is stockpiling outrageous amounts of talent, his players adore him, and he’s pathologically upbeat in a way that almost makes him suspicious.... While guys like Coach K and Belichick can lose without hurting their legacy even a little bit, no matter how much Carroll and Calipari win, they will always have something left to prove to people convinced they can’t really coach."

Reasons to Hate the Seahawks

They’re Getting a Little Full of Themselves - I guess that works as a steroids jab too - Hey, the Seahawks probably still use a lot of steroids, even though they've been busted before! But also, they've built up quite an arrogant streak ever since winning the big one last year with no signs of slowing down.  Interpreting Marshawn Lynch's antics above differently, he thinks nothing of inflicting obscene gestures on opponents he's already beaten in the end zone and puts velvet ropes around his parked Lamborghini when he's off the field. Rarely a day goes by where we don't hear something from Richard Sherman about being the greatest cornerback of all time when his stats would speak perfectly well for themselves.  And most recently, I was plain dumbstruck by these guys' hubris after stealing the NFC Championship from the Packers despite the fact that it was a game they had no business winning.  Doug Baldwin absolutely went off on reporters for "giving up" on the team earlier in the season, even though the Seahawks went 3 - 3 during that stretch.  But the last piece of cake goes to Russell Wilson, who has convinced himself that his abysmal 4-interception performance during that game was all part of God's master plan to reward him with a Seahawks' comeback.  That's right.  A grown man believes: 1) that an all-powerful omnipotent God would spend any time whatsoever influencing a professional football game through divine intervention instead of working on, say, pestilence and famine; and 2) that God hates the Packers so much that he would completely crush their spirits so that Russell Wilson could easily rationalize away the worst performance of his NFL career.

They Just Won This Thing - It’s actually kind of funny that this is a more fitting argument against the Seahawks than the Patriots, but plenty of people are already starting to use the “dynasty” word for this Seattle team too. It seems like only yesterday the Seahawks were completely dismantling the Broncos’ historic offense at the Meadowlands, and now they’ll be gunning for a repeat against the Patriots with a new Legion of Bandwagon cheering them on.  The novelty may not have worn off for you yet, but I have a feeling it's going to be a very looonnng time before Seattle's Super Bowl window closes, and that could get Spurs-boring real quick.  With guys like Tom Brady and Darrelle Revis in mind, a Super Bowl win would almost certainly mean a lot more to them than it would to the vast majority of the Seahawks roster that was in this position just a year ago.  Who wants to give the 12th Man any more bragging rights after another obnoxiously good Seahawks season anyway?

This Isn't 2014 - And now a small preview for my Super Bowl predictions later on this week: The Seahawks are certainly still a stacked, resilient group, but they just haven't looked quite like the totally dominant team they were a year ago.  Although they finished the season 6 - 0, five of those games were against the rest of the reeling NFC West.  Despite having homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, the Seahawks let an inferior Carolina Panthers team hang around a lot longer than they should have and, again, really had no business winning against the Packers even though Aaron Rodgers was basically playing with one leg.  Seattle's run defense took a step back against Jonathan Stewart and Eddie Lacy, and the offense has looked far from ideal with Russell Wilson getting very little help from his thin receiving corps and shuffled offensive line.  So I don't expect the same kind of smackdown that these guys delivered to Peyton Manning in SB XLVIII.  To the delightful contrary, I expect a very good, highly competitive game.

Grading Each 2014-15 NFL Playoff Team

We’ll get to the main event next week, but my my, what a complicated--and many would argue frustrating--playoffs series we just went through. Except for the kind of upset that would dethrone either #1 seed, we had it all: controversial calls and non-calls, no-shows, smackdowns, nail-biters, overtime, a cheating scandal and perhaps the worst five-minute meltdown I’ve ever seen in 15 years of following this sport. Let’s reduce it all to subjective grades for each NFL playoff team while we glance right past the Pro Bowl and to the big dance:


Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots: A-
That’s right, for the first time in Lady Blitz history, I’m going to be just a little bit tough on the two teams advancing to the Super Bowl. They had dominant performances against the Panthers and Colts in their respective conferences, but they needed divine intervention (and some bad late-game decisions from their opponents) to get past the Packers and Ravens, respectively. In the end, we got spectacular comebacks from both teams, which means they are battle-tested and probably believing in themselves more than they ever have - and that’s good Super Bowl entertainment to me! But whether your grudge is steroid use or deflated footballs, these two teams aren’t looking so upstanding or flawless going into the big game, so I’ll dock them a half point in solidarity with whatever non-punishment the NFL will dole out several weeks from now.

Arizona Cardinals: D-
I’m not sure I’ve seen an objectively worse playoffs performance than the Cardinals put on in Charlotte for Wild Card weekend, but I can’t quite fail them considering that they somehow managed to score two touchdowns anyway with fourth-stringer Ryan Lindley leading the way. Arizona started the year off red hot at 11 - 1 and then proceeded to lose Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton, Andre Ellington and even more of its “Next Man Up” defense to injury. The carnage was such that it was unrealistic to expect a Cardinals win, even against a sub-0.500 Panthers team. But they clearly ran out of next men in Carolina, and Coach Bruce Arians left his kitchen-sink risk taking at home even when Arizona had nothing to lose.

Baltimore Ravens: B
The Ravens added to their Playoff Peak mystique this season with a stunning upset over the rival Steelers and a near-upset against the Patriots at Foxboro after barely sneaking into January in the first place. The return of Haloti Ngata made Baltimore’s front lines a force to be reckoned with and, for six quarters anyway, plenty of compensation for a shaky secondary. For those same six quarters, Joe Flacco looked ascendent in the passing game and got a great deal of balance from “Ray Rice who?” RB Justin Forsett and a reshuffled offensive line. Yet despite building a 14-point lead against the Patriots in the third quarter, the Ravens just couldn’t close the deal after some costly picks from Flacco and Tom Brady’s eventual dissection of Baltimore’s secondary. On the whole, the Ravens did better than most people expected, but those late stalls on offense cost them big when Brady finally realized he was on a mission from God.

Carolina Panthers: B-
Like the Cardinals above, the Panthers fell victim in some ways to roster vulnerabilities that we knew would catch up to them sooner or later. Still, they did roughly what was expected - beat a reeling Arizona team soundly and beat themselves soundly in Seattle with the help of a very opportunistic Legion of Boom. The Panthers gave the Seahawks a lot more of a fight than I thought they would, due in large part to a solid running game from Jonathan Stewart and a very stingy defense. But Cam Newton continued his inaccurate back-footed ways, and Carolina ultimately mounted too many turnovers to keep the game in reach when it mattered most. It wasn’t a memorable postseason, but I think Panthers fans can rest easy knowing that this team did better than any other NFC South team would have done in the same situation.

Cincinnati Bengals: F
Sigh.  Another great regular season, another total implosion in the playoffs for the Bengals.  I really have nothing new to say, so let's just copy/paste some of our greatest hits from the past two years of this segment:

• [2013] - Despite ending the regular season with a great string of games, the Bengals regressed back into their bad habits in their only outing in Houston Indianapolis.  Cincy's best strength, its pass rush, got very little muscle...  Andy Dalton's offense, on the other hand, was stifled from start to finish with a particularly poor long passing game... What a waste of a playoff spot from a team that should've been better.
• [2014] -  In some sense, this could have easily been an F, but there’s no sense in punishing the rest of the Bengals for Andy Dalton’s second half collapse against the Chargers Colts. Despite the Bengals looking more balanced and confident than they have since their glory days, they found yet another way to lose.

Dallas Cowboys: B+
Much against my natural inclinations, I found myself kind of liking this Cowboys team, at least enough for them to get another shot against the Seahawks this past weekend. That didn’t happen of course, and some fans are understandably still wringing their hands at the Gordian Knot that is the NFLs definition of a catch. But Dallas put up a heckuva fight from the first whistle to the last with a vindicating comeback win for Tony Romo and Jason Garrett against the Lions and a moral victory against presumptive MVP Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau. What got them in the end wasn’t merely a bad call, but also a worn down defense still much improved from its historically bad 2013 roster but simply unable to contain Rodgers and Lavonte Adams in the second half. Nevertheless, if 11 out of 12 playoff teams are guaranteed heartbreak by February, few can say they went down fighting like the Cowboys, who looked improved at every position on their roster this year despite many a skeptic (like me) predicting otherwise.

Denver Broncos: D+
I wouldn’t argue too much with you if you thought this grade was unfair given the severity of Peyton Manning’s quad injury. But to that I say, did you notice how the New England Patriots beat the Colts to a bloody pulp on the ground a week later? It’d be one thing if the Broncos had, say, Trent Richardson carrying the rock, but Denver came into the game with backup superstar C.J. Anderson and proceeded to do virtually nothing about it. This is pure speculation on my part, but it makes you wonder whether the Broncos’ lack of adaptability on the offensive front took OC Adam Gase out of contention for some high-profile head coaching positions. The Broncos whiffed on defense too with Aqib Talib & co. letting T.Y. Hilton go to work in the open field with no pass rush to speak of. I’d say better luck next year, but with Manning looking just about done and Denver trading down John Fox for Gary Kubiak, consider this Super Bowl window slammed shut.

Detroit Lions: C
Oh Detroit. For a minute there it looked like you were finally going to bless your miserable fanbase with your second playoff win in the past 50 years, going up 13 points on the road against a very tough Cowboys team. The Lions came out swinging with another stellar defensive performance against DeMarco Murray and some big plays from Matt Stafford & friends to build an early lead. Undeniably, they got shafted on a reversed interference call that could have helped them maintain a lead in the final minutes of the fourth quarter, but they also did plenty to beat themselves once frustration over the call boiled over. That included not going for it on 4th-and-1 in the No Man’s Land of Cowboys territory, leaving Jason Witten wide open to let Tony Romo convert a big fourth down, and fumbling the ball twice on the game’s final drive to eliminate any chance of a comeback. After a surprisingly good 11 - 5 season of comebacks and clutch plays, Detroit reverted to its choking ways at the worst possible time, and Matt Stafford extended his record on the road against winning teams to a ghastly 0 - 18.

Green Bay Packers: B
I’m still a little flabbergasted vicariously for Packers fans after Sunday, certainly to the point that their stunning loss in Seattle was much more depressing than the Seahawks’ comeback win was exhilarating. They did so much right on the whole this postseason: finding a workable offensive approach with Aaron Rodgers slinging it in the pistol and Eddie Lacy getting work done on the ground, generating big-time turnovers against DeMarco Murray and Russell Wilson, getting to Wilson and Tony Romo consistently in the pass rush. And then they did so much wrong in those final five minutes in Seattle, even after intercepting Wilson for the fourth time, that it’s still hard to believe it's even physically possible to meltdown so swiftly and completely.  Morgan Burnett slid instead of returning Wilson's interception despite having a great shot at getting into scoring range.  Green Bay decided to run it up the gut for a loss of four yards for the next three plays.  The defense allowed the Seahawks to complete a 70-yard touchdown drive in under two minutes.  Brandon Bostick bumbled the Packers out of an onside kick recovery.  The Packers allowed Seattle to score in the blink of an eye again and let Wilson convert a 2-point play that can only be described as a desperation Hail Mary.  And then the earlier mistakes - Mike McCarthy's ridiculously conservative calls to kick field goals at the goal line and blown coverage on a Seahawks trick play all came into sharp focus.  When you pile it all up, you can't really say the Packers "deserved" to win this one, but what was lost in an epic collapse is that they almost pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the season handily. 

Indianapolis Colts: B-
Many people have pointed out that the Colts are making progress in the playoffs.  Since Andrew Luck arrived, they've made it to a deeper round each postseason and could be a popular Super Bowl favorite going into 2016 for that reason alone.  They had two solid wins this time around, holding both the Bengals and Broncos to fewer than two touchdowns, letting Andrew Luck go wild and getting pretty good balance out of their running game absent Trent Richardson.  But you could make an argument that those wins weren't as impressive as they might have looked on the stat sheet since the Bengals continued their woeful January ways and the Broncos never had a chance without a healthy Peyton Manning.  It's hard to remember now that Denver was a heavy favorite when the Colts visited, and they deserve credit for setting the tone from the get-go.  But based on how Indy folded against the Patriots yet again, I think they lucked out schedule-wise more than we might have realized before this past weekend.  You can blame the Patriots' tampering all you want, but you'd be hard pressed to argue that deflated footballs alone caused the Colts to lose by nearly 40 points, especially since the Pats ran the ball down their throats just like they've done for the past two years.  Chuck Pagano needs to put his defensive mind to work and make better adjustments going forward to get to the big dance, 'nuff said.

Pittsburgh Steelers: C-
Remember how the Steelers were in the playoffs this year?  Me neither.  Their Wild Card game against the rival Ravens was closer than the final score would suggest, but they were simply overpowered and outcoached by the time the dust settled.  It's fair to say Pittsburgh really missed Le'Veon Bell on offense; Ben Roethlisberger attempted nearly 50 passes and was under constant duress from Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata all night.  On defense, the Steelers just couldn't do much against the tandem deep threats of Steve Smith and Torrey Smith despite keeping Justin Forsett to less than three yards a carry.  So it's hard to find a bright spot for this team from this outing, but I give them minor style points for giving themselves a chance in the fourth quarter and trying to shred the Ravens' secondary in Bell's absence.

Playoff Predictions: Championship Weekend 2015

And now, the moment about 12.5% of you have been waiting for!  The AFC and NFC Championships are upon us, and well, let's hope for better games than these point spreads will suggest. 

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)

The Run-Down: I think enough time has passed so that we don't have to keep calling this Fail Mary (n+1).0. Instead, it's shaping up to be an unlikely David and Goliath matchup between the league's best passing offense and passing defense. Aaron Rodgers has been playing hero ball with a torn calf lately, but he’ll have to run through a whole new level of gauntlet against the Legion of Boom on Sunday.

How the Packers Can Win on Offense: Rodgers’ health presents the biggest question mark for Green Bay, but they should be somewhat encouraged by what they saw from the Panthers against on the ground last week.  Carolina ran wild by Seattle standards for over 130 yards, and Eddie Lacy/the Packers’ offensive line has the muscle to balance this offensive attack, at least a little bit.  I think the Packers will be best served by a methodical and conservative game plan, especially if it takes Rodgers a couple quarters to warm up on that calf like it did last week.  The Seahawks thrive on turnovers, and if Green Bay takes too many chances early, they could find themselves in a big hole and on the shoulders of an ailing quarterback - a recipe for disaster at CenturyLink. Going with an uptempo short-to-medium passing game and wearing Seattle's pass rush out by running up the middle will allow the Packers to open up more room in the secondary as the game wears on.  They'd probably also do well to add some help to the line to protect Rodgers from sacks and being forced to scramble in hopes that his third or fourth option is good enough to get open in time.  The Broncos' near-win here from Week 3 is a prime example of how to chip away at this defense and not give up easy points.

How the Packers Can Win on Defense: There's no bones about it - the Packers are going to need their best defensive effort of the season on the ground to make it to the Super Bowl.  Seattle is the top rushing offense in the league, not just for that brutal power running from Marshawn Lynch, but also from Russell Wilson with a read option game that tends to destroy winded linebackers across America.  Dom Capers is going to need to get creative in how he lines up his edge rushers to get to Wilson or at least contain him in the pocket.  They won't pull off a shut out, but preventing big plays on the ground will give Green Bay's decent secondary more opportunities to pick off or at least slow down No. 3.  And if Julius Peppers can pull off another opportune fumble or two, that's about as good as the Packers can hope for in slowing down the Seahawks and creating a couple of extra scoring opportunities for themselves.

How the Seahawks Can Win on Offense: Get the Skittles ready - the Seahawks ought to be licking their chops to run on a porous Packers defense.  Both teams know that Seattle will try to run all over Green Bay on Sunday, and the Packers are probably going to add some help upfront to limit running lanes for Wilson and Lynch.  That just gives the Seahawks more license to be creative with their option plays and misdirection to keep Clay Matthews & co guessing where they'll try to go next.  The 49ers dominated Green Bay to similar effect in recent years, and you can expect more of the same from this team in terms of offensive style and skill.  Should the Packers end up successfully limiting Seattle on the ground, life is pretty good when your Plan B is to let Russell Wilson air it out in the pocket.  If there's an Achilles heel for this offense, it's letting pressure get to Wilson and consistently putting the Seahawks in long downs situations where they have to be too one-dimensional.  In that case, I anticipate the 'Hawks will dial up more designed runs and rollouts to move Wilson out of the pocket where he can be deadly.

How the Seahawks Can Win on Defense: Aaron Rodgers may be hobbled, but even the Legion of Boom can't afford to go into this game too overconfident based on how well he's played these past few weeks in spite of injury. Of course, the Seahawks can still use Rodgers' limitations to their advantage. Expect big roles for Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril upfront to put pressure on him to throw the ball before plays develop and force him to scramble with a great deal of discomfort.  Nevertheless, while some may be tempted to say that Seattle should force Rodgers to throw in this one, he's proven he can thread the needle and beat a lot of good defenses that way, even at less than 100%.  In this case, the Seahawks might respect the presumptive MVP's talent enough to keep their focus on the secondary even if that means giving Eddie Lacy a couple extra inches on the ground.  It takes just one blink of an eye to let Jordy Nelson get past you and into the end zone, so I expect Richard Sherman and friends to be physical and vigilant at the line of scrimmage so that these receivers don't have time to get open before the play is over.

Prediction: If I were picking these games purely for Super Bowl entertainment value, I'd love to see a rematch between a healthier Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady in two weeks.  But Rodgers playing hurt worries me only half as much as the Packers' run defense against a deadly efficient and physical Seahawks offense.  I think Seattle has a field day against Green Bay's front seven, Dom Capers finally gets fired and the Seahawks earn another ticket to the big dance in style.  Seahawks 30, Packers 17

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-6.5)

The Run-Down: Andrew Luck will try to get his first career win against the Patriots in blustery Foxboro this weekend.  In their previous three meetings, the Colts have lost to New England by 20+ points, but after two dominant outings against the Bengals and Broncos, Indy has to be feeling at least a little more confident on both sides of the ball.  Of course, the Patriots are peaking at a great time too.

How the Colts Can Win on Offense: Indy might take a page from Baltimore and try to establish some balance in the run game with... Boom Herron?  It's a little bit of a stretch, but given that Justin Forsett was averaging nearly five yards per carry last week and that the Colts will want to keep their defense fresh as long as possible against Brady.  Rather than relying too heavily on their inefficient running backs, I'd like to see the Colts set up a few designed runs for Luck, using his underrated mobility to open up the Pats' defense.  At the end of the day, Indianapolis will have to win this one through the air with Luck and a versatile pack of receivers, but his ability to scramble successfully could freeze the Patriots' defense, giving him more room to run and throw the ball in order to keep moving the chains.  Luck's top receiving targets will likely be the speedy T.Y. Hilton whenever he beats the secondary on the edge and Coby Fleener, given New England's struggles to defend tight ends in the middle of the field.

How the Colts Can Win on Defense: After their last few drubbings at the hands of New England, you better believe the Colts are going to pay a lot of attention to their ground game.  If you recall that one week when Jonas Gray became a household name, it was against Indianapolis when the Patriots lined up an extra body on offense for most snaps and let Gray destroy the Colts for 200 yards and 4 TDs.  Indy's run defense has looked a lot better in January, keeping Jeremy Hill and C.J. Anderson to less than 100 yards in their past two games, but they benefited quite a bit from maintaining big leads against opponents struggling to pass the ball.  The Colts won't be able to sell out against the run when Tom Brady takes the field, and they'll need to put as much focus as strength as possible into the nanoseconds after the ball snaps to read runs and try to slow down the Pats' elusive receiving corps before they get into the open field.  For the most part, the only teams that have been successful against New England this year have been able to stuff the run and get to Brady consistently.  If the Colts defensive line can't get there, they'll need another exceptional shut out performance in the secondary from Vontae Davis & co. to buy more time against the Pats at the line of scrimmage.

How the Patriots Can Win on Offense: The above section might lead you to think the Patriots will employ a very run-heavy offense on Sunday.  It's been a clear advantage for them against Indianapolis in recent games, but New England is quite the chameleon in game planning, constantly adjusting their strategies to exploit weaknesses and confuse defenses after a week of meticulous film preparation.  After all, this is a Pats team that threw the ball on over 80% of their offensive snaps last week, one of the highest percentages in playoff history.  So rather than play it straight with the run, I expect them to burn the Colts on play action passes early, forcing the defensive line to overpursue the backfield and luring the secondary away from receivers that they'll need to cover exceptionally well.  There will be a time and place for wearing down Indy on the ground, but given how much better Andrew Luck seems to get each postseason, I think they'd be best served early by running up the score and compelling Luck to force the the throws they've picked off pretty regularly over the past three years.

How the Patriots Can Win on Defense: Unless Boom Herron goes off the way of Jonas Gray, the Patriots shouldn't have too much trouble against Indianapolis's running game, and that should allow them to clog up Luck's passing lanes quite a bit in the secondary.  Getting decent pressure on Luck would be nice but it's arguably not necessary as long as New England can hang with a talented receiving corps.  The two things the Pats defense cannot afford to do is to let T.Y. Hilton get behind them or let Coby Fleener eat up yards in the middle since tight ends have had very productive games against this defense all season.  These two are Luck's favorite [and most consistent] targets, so the earlier New England can take them out of the game, the better their chances of taking him down in the pocket or forcing him to throw to less utilized and more error-prone receivers.

Prediction: I'm hopeful that the Colts' learning curve against the Patriots and their confidence these past two weeks will make for a much better game than we've seen between these two teams in recent years.  Nevertheless, New England still has a big edge in just how versatile this offense is, able to beat opponents in a variety of ways that Indianapolis will only be able to stop for so long.  Patriots 34, Colts 27


So How's My Postseason Pickin'?
So Far: 5 - 3
Against the Spread: 3 - 5

NFL Divisional Round Recap and That Dez Bryant Non-Catch

As it's done so many years before, the NFL Divisional Round delivered this weekend with some of the most exciting, competitive games we've seen this season and--you guessed it--another officiating controversy to break down with the Cowboys. 

The Best of Divisional Weekend 2015

Second Half Tom Brady - First Half Joe Flacco was something to behold with 3 TDs, no picks, and a clutch TD to close out the second quarter after an ugly Tom Brady interception.  I'll admit I was feeling pretty smug about picking the Ravens to win after they went ahead by 14 for the second time in the third quarter.  But then Tom Brady came alive (with a little help from Julian Edelman) and absolutely shredded Baltimore's suspect secondary to come away with the win.  It was as good as he's looked in the playoffs since the last time the Patriots made it to the Super Bowl, and it's hard to imagine anyone being able to stop New England's passing attack when Brady is able to get the ball out of his hands in less than 2 seconds on a consistent basis.  In postseasons past, we've seen Brady get rattled to the point of dysfunction at times when he gets hit and when receivers drop passes the way they did early on in this game, but that didn't matter one bit once he started slinging fire in the third quarter.  With Edelman, Amendola and Gronkowski all getting excellent separation and making big plays when the Pats needed them, Brady showed us that no lead is safe against this team.  Kudos for one of his most impressive wins on a long resume.

Kam Chancellor, The Quiet Beatle - On any other team, Kam Chancellor would be a defensive star, but he's probably the third or fourth name that comes to fans' minds for Seattle's Legion of Boom.  No matter, his impact on opposing offenses cannot be overstated.  Chancellor most memorably sealed the win for Seattle with a 90-yard interception return for a touchdown, but he also led the team in tackles and found ways to break up passes and running routes every time the Panthers seemed like they were starting to find a rhythm.  The interception marked his third in as many games.  As we saw in last year's Super Bowl, the guy hits receivers so hard and fast sometimes that he takes away any semblance of yards after contact and makes them reluctant to stretch out in the open field as the game wears on.  Randall Cobb & co. beware.

The Packers' Front Lines - Save for that late controversial reversed call on Dez Bryant, Packers-v.-Cowboys was everything it was cracked up to be, an instant classic between two very good teams with competing styles and spectacular offensive lines.  Dallas's line had great moments and allowed DeMarco Murray to have another great day on the ground, but Green Bay's linemen on both sides of the ball were even better.  On offense, they had the unenviable task of protecting a limping Aaron Rodgers, whose ability to scramble out of the pocket to buy time is essential to his usual success.  Not only did the Packers' line limit the Cowboys to one sack on Rodgers, they also led the way for Eddie Lacy on the ground to the tune of four yards per carry to give Green Bay much-needed balance and keep the ball out of Tony Romo's hands at the end of the game.  On defense, the Packers sacked Romo four times and knocked him down a whole lot more than that for some key stops and long downs [i.e., non-DeMarco Murray downs] late in the game.  In a matchup that embodied the "game of inches," the Packers' linemen really made a difference.

Vontae Davis, A Better Aquib Talib - No doubt the Colts' upset over the Broncos on Sunday night will be remembered more for Peyton Manning's shortcomings than anything that Indianapolis did well.  Interestingly, Manning's passer rating and completion rate for the day were almost identical to Andrew Luck's, but I'm sure CB Vontae Davis will be in his nightmares for a long time.  Davis played the part of shutdown corner with five pass breakups and eight tackles against the Broncos' receiving arsenal and was generally a huge factor in thwarting Denver from ever catching up with the Colts.  To watch it, his coverage was just exceptional - even when Manning's throws were on the money, he had a way of altering routes and timing plays on the ball that were otherworldly, especially on third down. He'll have quite the test in Foxboro next week against Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, but the Colts have Davis to thank for their next business trip.

The Worst of Divisional Weekend 2015

Baltimore's Play-Calling - On a weekend where almost every team competing had a pretty good game, it's hard to nit-pick the losers too much.  The Ravens played well enough to win until their defense collapsed late, and they still might have pulled it off if just one of those Patriots fumbles had gone their way.  But if there's one area that Baltimore will be thinking about for a while when they're watching the rest of the playoffs at home, it has to be that play-calling on the final drive of the game.  At the two-minute warning, the Ravens were trailing by four at the Patriots' 36 yard-line and had a 1st-and-5 after an offsides penalty.  For the casual fan, that means a lot of time and a lot of options to march to the goal line and leaving as little time as possible left on the clock for Tom Brady to get the ball back.  So when your running back is averaging five yards per carry and you can get a new set of downs with 5 yards, why on Earth would you go for the kill shot to Torrey Smith in double coverage?!?!  Even if you're going to pass, why not work the sidelines or the screen game to get yourself closer to the end zone and run some time off the clock since you're only 30 yards out?  Baltimore often lives and dies by Joe Flacco's gambles, and they've paid off in many previous playoff games, but this was just a bizarre and disappointing way to end an otherwise inspired performance. 

The Panthers, Kind Of - As much as I usually enjoy railing on divisional rivals, I don't really have a lot of beef with the Panthers from Saturday except for their ball security, which really cost them in a game that was closer than the final score would suggest.  They managed to outgain the Seahawks on the ground, which is no easy task, and also had an advantage in first downs and time of possession.  Of course, some of that was inflated by Seattle's offensive efficiency and Carolina's bad luck with turnovers.  Cam Newton threw a couple of awful interceptions, one of which was Chancellor's 90-yard pick six, and Jonathan Stewart fumbled early in the game deep in Panthers territory to set up Seattle for an easy score.  It's hard for anyone to win in Seattle, much less a flawed 7-8-1 team, but given that Newton's pick six could have been a 14-point swing and that Stewart's fumble added another 7 points for the Seahawks, the Panthers could have easily had a shot to win at the end of the game if they had been able to hold onto the ball.

Cris Shillingsworth - And now for a non-game-related complaint about the National Football League and the shills who have to pretend that it's the best thing ever.  One of the most stilted, disingenuous moments of the weekend happened during the Ravens-Patriots games when Al Michaels had to read an obviously planted statement about the Mueller Report. If you haven't heard much about the report, it summarizes the findings from the NFL's internal investigation into its own handling of the Ray Rice case last year.  Yep, the NFL asked an investigator it already employs to determine whether or not the league was culpable for mishandling Rice's investigation and subsequent punishment for domestic assault.  It might not be surprising to you then to hear that Mueller found that while the NFL was incompetent and negligent at the very least in handling the case, the organization and Roger Goodell are absolved of wrongdoing because they didn't see the tape until you did... and they deserve more power to mitigate future cases, obviously.

You already know how I feel about this, so I'll just reinforce that the "did they/didn't they see the tape" argument is a red herring and should have no bearing on whether or not the league acted with integrity or demonstrated any genuine concern for domestic violence until they were publicly embarrassed.  But anyway, Michaels and co-anchor Cris Collinsworth got the short end of the early broadcast stick and had to read an NFL-issued statement about the report underscoring that the NFL is a totally great and ethical organization while panning in on Goodell "The Everyman" in the stands with his wife.  Their awkward color commenting afterwards about "the national conversation" and Goodell's integrity left an especially bad taste in my mouth.  I guess it wasn't surprising, but it just reinforces how deep the NFL's PR reach is in every broadcaster's talking points and how little true discourse we can expect to get from the most influential figures on the sidelines.

Reftroversy Part II: A Non-Catch to Remember

Hey, look!  I hardly had to change the header above for this week's playoffs recap.  There were a lot more good things than bad things to take away from this weekend's divisional games, but here we are again, most likely to remember a controversial officiating decision that changed the complexion of a game.  To the karmically-oriented, you might say what goes around comes around.  Whereas the Cowboys benefited from the referees reversing an interference call that would have put the Lions deep in scoring territory last week, this week Dallas fell victim to a reversed call that would have set them up for the go-ahead touchdown late against Green Bay.  Down by 5 on fourth down with four minutes to go, Tony Romo threw a deep pass to Dez Bryant that was initially ruled a catch--and it was an amazing catch at that.  It would have given the Cowboys a new set of downs at the goal line, but then Mike McCarthy challenged the play.  I have to admit that I thought this was by far the worst of many awful challenges McCarthy has been guilty of over the years since the catch seemed obvious and Green Bay would be out of timeouts and in need of a quick score.  But when the deluge of slo-mo replays began, I saw where he was going. As Dez Bryant fell to the ground, the ball bobbled in his arm at the end of the tackle, evoking the much-hated, controversial "Calvin Johnson rule" that states a receiver must complete the process of a catch all the way to the ground or it is ruled incomplete.

It's harder to make an argument that this wasn't the deciding call in this game compared to what happened with Detroit last week.  Whereas the interference reversal happened with eight minutes left while the Lions were in the lead, this one happened with four minutes left when the Cowboys needed a touchdown to win.  Still, had Dallas scored a touchdown at the end of that series, the Packers would have only needed a field goal to win (or tie if the Cowboys converted two points) and at least three minutes with Aaron Rodgers to do so.  He and Eddie Lacy essentially drove the Packers into field goal range to run out the clock at the end of the game anyhow and most win-probability calculations showed Dallas having about a 50% chance of winning had they scored a TD.  Moreover, when you look at the game as a whole, there were areas where the Packers gained a clear edge that put them in a better position to win, though both teams played a great game.  They outgained the Cowboys by over 100 yards on the day and protected Rodgers better than Dallas protected Romo to take the lead before this play. 

As for whether or not the call was legitimate, it's certainly been called before with Calvin Johnson's example being the most prominent, and I think the rules were applied reasonably in this situation since the ball moved as Bryant hit the ground.  Having said that, I don't think the original call should have been overturned given that the evidence was too ambiguous to justify a clear reversal. In a late-game situation like this, you would hope that calls and reversals would be pretty conservative to avoid interfering with the outcome beyond necessary.  Nonetheless, it was technically the right call for a bad rule that is nearly impossible to enforce consistently and almost certain to change before next season.  Props to Bryant for one of the best non-catches I've ever seen and for whatever truckload of money awaits him in free agency.

Playoff Predictions: 2015 Divisional Round

On to the divisional round, which on paper is a much better slate of games than last week, so don't let all of these healthy home team point spreads fool you.  If I'm being totally honest, the only team I feel certain will come out a winner this week is the Seahawks, so allow me to overanalyze and hedge my predictions for you in anticipation of some instant classics this weekend:

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-7)

The Run-Down: It’s the underrated rivalry that keeps on giving! Just when you thought the Ravens were DOA and the Patriots could backstroke into the Super Bowl, Baltimore’s defense is starting to look scary-good again and is probably the least intimidated team in the league when it comes to playing in Foxboro. This has the makings of a classic test of brute force and coaching strategy.

How the Ravens Can Win: Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: The Ravens can beat the Patriots with that Grade A pass rush and some decent containment in the secondary. Tom Brady has shown in previous outings with Baltimore that he can get rattled if he or his receivers get pushed around and have their rhythm disrupted. Moreover, the Pats aren't big on running the ball, so that could free up the Ravens linebackers to create tighter passing lanes in the defensive backfield - that worked pretty darn well against the Steelers last week, after all. On offense, Baltimore will get what it can out of Justin Forsett to control the clock, and they'll probably have to sacrifice Torrey Smith to Revis Island. Still, if Joe Flacco's feeling it in the post game, don't be surprised if the Ravens take some shots down field as they've done from time to time in New England to good effect. Flacco and (T.) Smith are among the best in the league in drawing pass interference calls, and they usually don't mind missing a couple of connections if it ultimately pays off with a big equalizing score.

How the  Patriots Can Win: This game seems like a prime candidate for the Patriots to dust off that fast-paced no huddle they used to employ quite frequently under OC [and motivated head coaching candidate] Josh McDaniels.  The Ravens' pass rush is merciless and peaking at the right time, so if the Pats have a chance to get ahead, they need to knock that young and banged up secondary around early on. I suspect Baltimore's defense will focus a whole lot of attention on Rob Gronkowski, so Tom Brady should be prepared to exploit that with the likes of Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Tim Wright among other supporting cast members. It's all tempo and spacing with this offense. On defense, New England's best bet is to limit Justin Forsett on early downs and force the Ravens to pass more than they're comfortable with. The odds are Joe Flacco won't repeat the nearly-flawless passing performance he had in the playoffs a couple years ago, so the Patriots should roll the dice on Bad Flacco rearing his head at some point. New England's defense has had 15 interceptions in wins this season compared to just one pick in their losses, and any turnovers will be huge in a game that I suspect will come down to one possession.

Prediction: I think the Ravens have a better shot than either the Broncos or Colts of beating the Patriots this postseason, so I expect this to be a close, physical, edge-of-the-fingertips kind of game.  New England could struggle to protect Tom Brady with a replacement left tackle, and that should make you think twice about favoring these guys by a touchdown.  So I may come to regret switching my initial pick because karma says the pendulum has to swing the Patriots' way, but I like Baltimore's defensive matchups too much not to take a gamble on them this week.  Either way, one of these two teams ought to be in Arizona in a few weeks. Ravens 23, New England 21

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-11)

The Run-Down: If you like brutal defensive masterpieces, this just might be the game for you! The Panthers entered the playoffs as a laughing stock with a losing record, but that front seven is no joke. Still, it’ll be a tall task for Carolina to get past the postseason favorite Seahawks who know a thing or two about a punishing defense themselves.

How the Panthers Can Win: I’m guessing Cam Newton is looking at lots of game film of the 49ers and Colin Kaepernick from seasons past, but hopefully taking it in with a grain of salt. Kaepernick’s mobility in combination with a strong arm and steady running game usually gave the Niners a chance to take Seattle down to the wire in the rivalry’s more recent chapters. His risk-taking in the passing game cost them at times though. Newton certainly has similar scrambling talents and arguably a better arm than Kaep, so if he can catch the Seahawks’ mighty defense a little off guard with the read option and some well-executed improvisation, he may be able to open up a couple more scoring opportunities for Carolina. But given that Newton has looked a little off in the pocket all season, I’d advise the Panthers to stick to their ground game to the extent possible. Jonathan Stewart has been spectacularly productive in recent weeks, so any opportunity to wear down Seattle’s front line while limiting the likelihood of turnovers would give Carolina a chance in a hostile environment. There’s no denying that the Panthers’ defense is legitimate and playing its best football of the season, so they should treat all phases of the game as a war of attrition. Staying patient with the run, focusing on field position instead of explosive but high-risk plays, and taking advantage of the Seahawks’ shaky offensive line might just get it done for a red-hot Panthers team.

How the Seahawks Can Win: The way I see it, Carolina’s offensive strengths and weaknesses really fit Seattle’s defense to a tee. Cam Newton has had trouble hitting receivers accurately all season, which is at least in part due to the Panthers’ lack of depth and playmaking in that area. That should give the Seahawks more than enough permission to stick with man coverage so they can load up the box to stuff Jonathan Stewart and keep Newton in the pocket in long downs situations. The bigger question is how Seattle’s offense will hold up against a very good Panthers front seven.  This is where Russell Wilson's dynamic playmaking abilities can really give the Seahawks an advantage.  They should dial up a variety pack of option plays to confuse Carolina with different looks and give Wilson time to scramble to the edge and find open receivers.  The Panthers' weakness is still very much their reshuffled secondary, and the Seahawks have a great passer who can take advantage of that with controlled chaos in and around the pocket.  I could see Seattle employing a fairly pass-heavy first half and then bringing out Marshawn Lynch to hammer home the win once the Panthers are left gasping with their hands on their hips.

Prediction: My overconfident-to-the-point-of-jinxing-things feeling about this game is that it's not a question of whether or not the Seahawks will win, but whether they will cover that ambitious point spread.  I think the Panthers can keep this one close for a couple of quarters by virtue of their resurrected defense, but Seattle should have a serious advantage at the line of scrimmage and in the open field when Carolina has the ball.  Things could get ugly depending on how early they get to Newton.  Seahawks 20, Panthers 10

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-6)

The Run-Down: In a game sure to inspire a legion of bandwagoners to put flags on cars this week, two of ‘merica’s most storied and successful franchises will duke it out in an Ice Bowl-caliber classic at Lambeau. With the Cowboys going 8 - 0 on the road this season and the Packers going 8 - 0 at home and with some of the biggest offensive playmakers in the game, it might just live up to the hype.


How the Cowboys Can Win: It turns out Green Bay isn't exactly the best team against the run, so the Cowboys would do well to keep doing what works for them with DeMarco Murray.  Things will be pretty chilly at Lambeau, and the Packers have gotten steamrolled before by teams in control on the ground, even at home (see: 49ers, Divisional Round 2014).  Like I said last week, this Dallas offense lives and dies by its play action mojo, and given Green Bay's active pass rush, Tony Romo would do best to fake out Clay Matthews & co. to buy an extra second in the pocket when they need it.  On defense, the Cowboys need to take advantage of Aaron Rodgers' limited mobility.  A torn calf muscle sounds like no fun at all, and it might be a big problem if Rodgers can't roll into passing lanes on the outside - that is his bread and butter as much as Romo's is play action.  That means the Cowboys need a historic performance from their edge rushers to keep Rodgers at bay and feeling the pressure.  Dallas's secondary simply won't be able to hang if No. 12 gets to wait for his many capable receivers to get open, and he's deadly against blitzes, so they'll have to make do with what they have upfront.

How the Packers Can Win: Let's hope Aaron Rodgers isn't too banged up to do his typical razzling and dazzling through the air.  That is easily Dallas's biggest weakness, and it almost cost them when Matt Stafford got the better of that secondary in the first half last week.  The Cowboys' pass rush is average on a good day, and Green Bay needs to put its own Pro Bowl-caliber offensive line to work so that Rodgers doesn't have to scramble around for time on a gimpy leg.  Engaging Romo in a shootout isn't as surefire of a winning strategy as it's been in past seasons, but it will give the Packers a lot more of an edge in generating sacks and turnovers than they'd have with Murray bludgeoning them into the 4th quarter.  Dallas had a tough time against the Lions' front four last time, so maybe the Packers can find some weaknesses on film that will help them rattle Romo and keep the Cowboys out of scoring position.

Prediction: This game could well come down to which of the two best offensive lines in the league holds up, or conversely, how each opposing defensive line fares against them.  I get a little nervous for the Packers because while Rodgers is quite obviously their key to the Super Bowl, they may have to be more conservative than they'd like to avoid reaggravating his calf and blowing Green Bay's chances altogether.  But on the assumption two weeks of rest will allow the guy to play better than he did during a big Week 17 performance and that the Packers' offensive line will hold up, I gotta go home team here.  Packers 31, Cowboys 27

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-7)

The Run-Down: If only there was some interesting storyline connecting Peyton Manning’s Broncos to the Colts… hmmm… Horse names! Got it! Anyway, our divisional round closer features the past, present and future of quarterbacking at its best and a couple of sneaky defenses that will try their best to corral the shootout.

How the Colts Can Win: This may sound counterintuitive to what we’ve known about the Broncos since Peyton Manning signed on, but I’d advocate for an uptempo, pass-heavy attack from Andrew Luck on offense. Manning just hasn’t looked like himself over the past month, and Denver has had to rely heavily on C.J. Anderson and the defensive grind to get past opponents as a result. We’re at a bizarro tipping point with the Broncos where it actually feels advisable to engage Manning in a shootout, at least with Luck at the helm. The Broncos’ defensive strength is certainly their line, so the more receiving targets Luck can get to early and often, the thinner those linebackers will have to spread themselves to avoid giving up big plays. Indy might as well replace its running game with screens to avoid inefficient downs and continue to open up the field. On defense, you can’t ask for much better than the Colts did last week against the Bengals, and that may still work to a degree against the Broncos. If Indy can shut Anderson down, that’ll put a lot of pressure on Manning to step up and force some throws that may be a bit more errant than we’re used to.  Still, the Colts allowed the Bengals to average over 5 yards per run last week, and they cannot afford to give Denver that much room when the Broncos have a much better passer and set of receivers.  Indy needs to use its frontlines to take away running lanes and chip well at the line of scrimmage keep the Thomasas from getting behind them in the secondary.

How the Broncos Can Win: With Peyton Manning and a full complement of receivers starting, the Broncos should have a whole lot more room to run than the Bengals did.  Even though Manning may have lost a step toward the end of the season, he can still make the Colts pay in the short and medium passing game if they don't provide proper coverage.  I anticipate that Denver will go heavy in the run and screen/slant passing game given the temperature and Manning's recent stagnation.  That style of dinking and dunking will allow the Broncos to hog the ball and wear out Indy's defense in that thin Mile High air.  On defense, Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware and Terrance Knighton have the chops to put Andrew Luck on the ground and make the Colts' paltry running game a non-factor.  Indy often has to ask Luck to do too much, and the number of hits he's taken and turnovers he's had this season are evidence of that imbalance.  The last thing the Broncos defense can do is give Luck time and early success through the air because, weirdly, they're all kinds of ground-and-pound now.

Prediction: Anything is possible for the Colts if Andrew Luck plays efficient, mistake-free football. But the Broncos defense is good enough in my opinion to keep him off-rhythm and break up a few big plays, especially since they won't have to spend a lot of energy on Indy's non-existent running game.  So unless Denver's offense totally stalls or coughs up the ball more than once or twice, this is the Broncos' game to lose.  Broncos 37, Colts 24


So How's My Postseason Pickin'?
So Far: 3 - 1
Against the Spread: 1 - 3

NFL Wild Card Recap and That Dallas-Detroit Flagtroversy

Yeesh.  If only the weather had been better this weekend so that I wouldn't have been so glued to a pretty ugly slate of wild card games.  Whether or not you liked the outcome, at least the Cowboys-Lions game saved us from a total snoozefest and gave me plenty of fodder to beef up these musings.  Here's the best and worst of this Wild Card weekend, plus what to make of the Dallas-Detroit Flagtroversy.

The Best of Wild Card Weekend 2015

Baltimore in Spoiler Form - Nobody said it'd be pretty, but the Ravens got the best of the high-flying Steelers on Saturday night in surprising fashion.  I'm not sure Pittsburgh was as bad off on offense without Le'Veon Bell as I might've thought since they outgained Baltimore by almost 100 yards, but the Ravens put the hurt on them at the line of scrimmage and in the red zone.  They sacked Ben Roethlisberger five times, came away with three turnovers and made Pittsburgh's offensive line look far worse than it has all season.  Joe Flacco got back to his strong-armed ways, and while it wasn't a career day stats-wise, he did enough to keep Baltimore in scoring position despite little help in the running game and also helped draw some key pass interference calls on the deep ball.  Patriots beware, yet again.

The Stingy Colts and Panthers - It's hard to find many bright spots from this wild card weekend given the overall sloppiness and poor matchups in these games, but the Colts' and Panthers' defensive efforts deserve gold stars, even if their offensive opponents were kind of doomed from the get-go.  I'll get more into Panthers v. Cardinals further down, but there's arguably never been a more dominant defensive performance than resurgent Carolina had on Saturday.  They held Arizona to 78 net yards - the lowest in NFL playoff history, even factoring in the slugfests of the 1940/50s - and absolutely blew up the line of scrimmage with an untold number of tackles for a loss and sacks.  The Colts too proved they're a different defense than half a season ago, keeping the Bengals' Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard to under 100 yards collectively and dealing plenty of heat to Andy Dalton all afternoon long.  In the end, the Colts held the ball almost 10 minutes longer than the Bengals, which gave Andrew Luck plenty of time to dissect the Bengals defense in the second half.

Dallas Getting It Done - There's still plenty of space below to get into whether or not the Cowboys "deserved" their first playoff win since 2009, but for a moment, let's recognize that they pulled of a heckuva comeback on Sunday.  Dallas fizzled for quite a while against Detroit's good-as-advertised defense, allowing six sacks on Tony Romo and facing a 13-point deficit in the third quarter.  This is usually where we kick up our heals and wait for the Dallas meltdown to conclude so that we can all relish it at the water cooler on Monday.  I know I was.  But then, something different happened and it wasn't all dumb luck or terrible officiating.  Regardless of the surrounding circumstances, the Cowboys came alive in the last stretch of the game, putting up 17 unanswered points and forcing the Lions to punt/turnover on downs on their final three drives.  It was impressive for a squad that looks a whole lot more resilient in the clutch than we've ever known since Tony Romo and Jason Garrett have been in charge.  Some level of kudos is required and deserved.

The Worst of Wild Card Weekend 2015

All Injuries and No Fun - There isn't a team in the playoffs that doesn't have notable injuries to contend with right now.  Still, what a bummer of a wild card weekend this was without Le'Veon Bell, A.J. Green, or about 30% of the Cardinals' roster.  Their absences had a clear impact on the quality of competition and on the thinner highlight reel we're left with at the end of the day, and it's a shame that these three teams will be wondering "what if?" until next September as a result.  Nothing could be done of course, but we're clearly worse off for Arizona's string of bad luck and the aftermath that brutal Week 17 closer in Pittsburgh that took both Bell and Green out of the playoffs altogether.

Pretty Much Everything About the Cardinals - To be fair, the Cardinals' defense played as well as could be expected on Saturday and got absolutely no help from their offense or special teams, but woof, what an abysmal game this was for them.  The Panthers didn't come out smelling like roses either with a muffed punt, four turnovers, a missed field goal and a safety, but that's Pro Bowl worthy compared to what the snakebitten Cardinals brought to the slaughter.  Notable woes by the numbers include:

• Managing only 78 net yards on the day, the lowest total in NFL playoff history
• Averaging less than 1.0 yards on first down
• Turning the ball over three times, once on a kickoff return deep in Cardinals territory and once on an end zone interception from Ryan Lindley
• Converting just three third-downs
• Punting for less than 35 yards five times
• Refusing to play Logan Thomas at QB at all despite Ryan Lindley's 44.4 passer rating and 2.93 yards per pass
• Making Larry Fitzgerald very sad

Bruce Arians was handed far less than a full deck going into Charlotte this weekend, but it's hard to imagine a worse outcome for the Cardinals than what they got.  I'm guessing he'll regret not taking a few more chances with the playcalling and with Logan Thomas, though it's also shocking that Arizona scored two touchdowns in spite of the carnage.

Cam Newton's Mechanics - Although the final score suggested a dominant Panthers performance on Saturday, they'll be hard-pressed to repeat if Cam Newton plays the same way in Seattle next weekend.  To be fair, he did what he had to in the biggest moments, scoring two touchdowns and scrambling to convert some key third downs, but he looked as erratic through the air as he has all season. He missed wide open receivers several times, threw two near-pick-sixes and barely surpassed a 50% completion rate, often throwing off balance with faulty footwork.  I don't doubt Newton's playing through pain after surviving a recent car accident and getting sacked and hit too many times to count this season (unless you're industrious enough to look it up, anyway), but unless he improves his form and accuracy dramatically this week, Richard Sherman's just about the last guy he'll want to be visiting.

The Flagtroversy: A Blown Call to Remember

And finally, the thing this otherwise insipid Wild Card weekend will be remembered for years from now: the controversial picked up flag in Dallas.  In case you missed it, this was one of the oddest bouts of officiating we've seen since the replacement referee debacle of 2012, and it happened at a critical moment in the game that could well have impacted the outcome.  Detroit was leading by three around midfield when Matt Stafford attempted a pass to Brandon Pettigrew on third down.  Cowboys OLB Anthony Hitchens clearly committed pass interference (or holding at the very least), making contact with Pettigrew well before the pass got to him and keeping his back to the ball.   See?  The refs immediately called pass interference, and that was unequivocally the right call or at least one that didn't seem like it could possibly be contested after the fact.  But then about 10 seconds after announcing the call, the officiating crew picked up the flag without any explanation, leading the Lions to punt just outside of field goal range instead of getting a new set of downs deep in Cowboys territory.  Adding to this very Dallas-friendly outcome was the fact that Dez Bryant ran out to argue with the referees without his helmet on, which should have resulted in a 15-yard personal foul regardless of the interference call and given the Lions another set of downs.  So what should we make of this?

On the one hand, I can't even imagine how angry Detroit fans must be as I type this, and they have every right to be. It's very rare to see referees overturn their own calls, especially when the penalty seems clear cut and double-extra-especially when they wait several seconds to do so without providing any immediate explanation whatsoever.  The non-explanation was simply unprofessional even if the officials have good reason to overturn the call, and it's a disservice to both sets of fans wondering about the legitimacy of their win or loss.  It's equally disheartening that they missed Bryant's personal foul and that they flagged Lions defenders for correct but more subtle holding calls on the Cowboys' ensuing drive while failing to notice some obvious holding calls on Dallas's offensive line when Romo threw the game-winning touchdown pass.  It's enough for some people to cry conspiracy given Dallas's status as America's Team and a certain party bus incident with the head of officiating.  You can call the non-call a lot of things, but you certainly cannot call it fair.  It was the wrong move, it took the Lions out of a scoring opportunity and made it that much harder for them to protect a lead and win.

But on the other hand, I've said this before in times when I've agreed with a controversial call and times when I haven't: one play [or resulting blown call] does not singlehandedly cause a loss.  The Lions had a very favorable situation to win when they were leading by 13 at one point in the third quarter, but a culmination of several plays on both sides of the ball swung that outcome.  The blown call didn't cause Detroit's punter to shank the ball on the next play for 10 yards, setting up Dallas with excellent field position.  It didn't cause Detroit to give up the go-ahead touchdown to the Cowboys on the next drive or to fail to get past midfield and turn the ball over on downs to end the game.  As I mentioned above, the Cowboys scored 17 unanswered points and the Lions came away with nothing on their last three drives.  Those are much more significant reasons the Lions lost.  Though it's not the outcome I would have hoped for, Detroit let a lead slip and Dallas was good enough to take advantage of it.  For all we know, the Lions could have been held to a field goal or missed it/turned the ball over had the drive continued, and neither of those would be enough to beat the Cowboys if everything else in the game happened exactly the same way.  But in the grand scheme of the playoffs, this is a good thing for non-Lions fans.  I'd take watching the Panthers get dismantled in Seattle and the Cowboys and Packers having a very competitive matchup next week any day over Lions-v-Seahawks and Panthers-v-Packers.