NFL Stock Watch and Last-Minute Playoff Predictions

It's amazing how the football world has shifted since those first few weeks of September, light years ago.  For all we knew, a washed-up Tom Brady was going to get traded to the Texans, the Cowboys were going to have their worst season in a decade, and the Seahawks/49ers were guaranteed playoff spots for the third year in a row.  Some of those stars have realigned of course, but with so much mayhem in the AFC and many divisional contenders still neck-and-neck in the NFC, it's time to take a stock watch on who will be left standing in January.  Here are the strengths and weaknesses to look out for with our potential contenders and my last-minute playoff predictions before the dust officially settles.

Rising Stock in the NFL

The Packers' Offensive Line - Sure, the Patriots have been a little shorthanded lately on defense, but Aaron Rodgers could have finished a crossword in the pocket on Sunday with all the time his offensive line gave him.  I distinctly recall one snap where he had at least 12 seconds to wait for someone to get open, about four times longer than a quarterback normally gets.  The Packers are allowing sacks at half the rate they were during the first two months of the season, and Aaron Rodgers' MVP-caliber passer rating just keeps going up.  Rodgers with that kind of time is a truly scary prospect, especially if Green Bay locks up homefield advantage. 

A Healthy Seahawks' Defense - But if there's one team that has spoiler potential to frustrate the Packers at Lambeau, it's the Seahawks finally getting healthy on defense.  Russell Wilson's offense still isn't lighting the world on fire these days, but that doesn't matter when you've held your last two opponents to three points a piece.  Seattle generated 11 turnovers and 10 sacks during the month of November and they looked primed to retake the NFC West back from the Cardinals before the season ends.

The Eagles' Pass Rush - Any fantasy wonk will tell you the Eagles have it going on with their special teams and defense this year.  Despite some less than inspiring offensive performances, Philadelphia has proven to be a fast and opportunistic team that does far more than run Chip Kelly's machine.  It's a parity crime then that Philly's pass rush is so good too - they're second only to Buffalo with 42 sacks so far this season.  As we saw Thursday afternoon against the Cowboys, that level of disruption may just be the edge in nabbing another division title this year.

C.J. Anderson - What if I'd told you Peyton Manning threw for less than 200 yards with a 50% completion rate and Denver still won comfortably against the Chiefs this weekend?  The Broncos' pass rush and/or Chiefs' offensive line certainly had something to do with the outcome (more on that later), but the Broncos have found a real gem in third-string running back C.J. Anderson to carry them when Manning has a [rare] off day.  He's put up over 150 yards at 5+ yards a clip over the past two games and may not end up losing his spot once Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball get healthy.  Anderson could be a difference-maker if the Broncos end up going to the blizzardrous environs of, say, Foxboro in January.

Donte Moncrief - It's definitely a little early to call, but for all the buzz Kelvin Benjamin, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans and Odell Beckham have gotten in a stacked rookie receiver class, Donte Moncrief might just join the party before this season's over.  With Reggie Wayne close to retirement and a running game far from reliable, Moncrief is starting to look like a deadly tandem replacement alongside T.Y. Hilton.  The guy averaged nearly 45 yards per catch on Sunday.  45.  And considering how good he used to make Bo Wallace look at Ole Miss, imagine what he can do for Andrew Luck.

Falling Stock in the NFL

The Chiefs' Offensive Line - Few (other than me) expected the Chiefs to win against the Broncos on Sunday night, so it's not like their fortunes should have changed too dramatically from last week, but that offensive line is becoming a real cause for concern.  Alex Smith has been absolutely brutalized over the past two games; in fact, the Raiders were so excited about beating him up that they almost lost in the most purely face-palming way possible.  Kansas City gave up 15 sacks last month with six a piece happening against the Bills and Broncos.  More concerning, they're averaging 20 fewer yards per game these days than they did in the first half of the season.  Without a dominant Jamaal Charles or an upright Smith, the Chiefs may not make it to January.

Colin Kaepernick's Big Play Ability - After lighting the Cowboys' secondary on fire in Week 1, Colin Kaepernick looks nowhere near the breakout star he was when he first filled in for Alex Smith two years ago, and it's bringing the 49ers down.  Just ask Frank Gore.  Some of that falls on the likely-to-be-oustered Jim Harbaugh for his play-calling, but Kaepernick just hasn't been an explosive playmaker or solid pocket passer lately in keeping defenses honest.  His longest rush on the year is just 23 yards and he's only passed for multiple touchdowns in three games this season.  After getting absolutely drubbed at home by the rival Seahawks on Thanksgiving, it's hard to envision Kaepernick turning things around before the season ends.

Brian Hoyer's Decision-Making - Don't get me wrong, I guess I'm thankful that Brian Hoyer marched the Browns down field in time to beat the Falcons last week, but after staving off Manziel-Mania admirably for three months, he's starting to resemble a backup worth benching.  Hoyer has played complementary game manager to Cleveland's steady running game and stout defense to this point, but he's quickly devolving into a reckless gunslinger now that Josh Gordon is back in the lineup.  After throwing just two interceptions through October, Hoyer has thrown eight picks over the past five games; that includes five picks and zero touchdowns since Gordon returned.  I still firmly believe he's a better option for the playoff-hopeful Browns than Manziel, but Cleveland would do well to remind Hoyer how the Browns have won games to this point.

The Cardinals' Roster - Who knows what Bruce Arians & co. might still draw up to keep the Cardinals in pole position over these next four weeks.  They've surprised us all season long.  But even the best coach would be hard-pressed to make do with the mounting injuries Arizona has faced this season.  The hits just keep coming.  First, the Cardinals lost half of their starting defense from a year ago before the season started.  Then Carson Palmer was lost for the season with an ACL tear just days after signing a new contract. Starting RB Andre Ellington has struggled with a nagging foot injury all season long, and Larry Fitzgerald's absence has had a huge impact on backup QB Drew Stanton's productivity.  In fact, Arizona hasn't scored a touchdown in the past two weeks.  And with Patrick Peterson getting his pride wounded by Julio Jones and friends last weekend, the Cardinals are starting to lose the few bright spots they have left on the roster at the worst time possible.

Last-Minute Playoff Predictions

And finally, I've run the numbers on what I think will happen for each team over the last four weeks of the regular season, and here's my best guess (take that as you may) as to who will end up where when January rolls around:

AFC

1) New England Patriots - The Pats sure would have loved to get that win in Lambeau, but with tie-breaking advantages against all other division leaders, the top spot in the AFC is theirs to lose.

2) Denver Broncos - Denver has a real shot at its third 13 - 3 season in a row and a possible top seed if the Patriots slip up.  If there's one matchup left to circle on the calendar, it's traveling to Cincinnati in Week 16.

3) Cincinnati Bengals - Even though the Colts have the head-to-head tie-breaker on this one, that Bengals' tie against the Panthers might just pay off after all.

4) Indianapolis Colts - The Colts could certainly move ahead of the Bengals if they play their cards right, but that'll include a tricky trip to Dallas in Week 16.

5) Baltimore Ravens - Given the ease of the Ravens' and Dolphins' schedules to close out the year, their head-to-head matchup next week has HUGE implications for who might end up here.

6) Kansas City Chiefs - I'm just as nervous as you are about that offensive line but with the reeling Cardinals, Raiders, Steelers and Chargers left on the schedule, they've got as good a shot as anyone.


Wild Card Round: Chiefs over Bengals, Colts over Ravens

Divisional Round: Patriots over Chiefs, Broncos over Colts

AFC Championship: Patriots over Broncos


NFC

1) Green Bay Packers - Who's going to beat the Packers this month?  By the looks of things, almost certainly no one unless the Buffalo Bills can infiltrate that stout offensive line in Week 15.

2) Philadelphia Eagles - The Eagles took a huge step forward in beating Dallas last week, and other than a tussle with the Seahawks next week, they could win out against all three divisional opponents to end the season unless the Cowboys bring a real vendetta in their second meeting.

3) Seattle Seahawks - With Arizona dropping two in a row, the Seahawks are doing everything right to reclaim the division title.  Plus, they get the reeling Cardinals again in three weeks.

4) New Orleans Saints - I stand by my statement that I want this team to get some good draft picks far more than I want them to get eviscerated in the playoffs, but the Saints have a manageable road ahead with three divisional games including hosting the Falcons in a likely elimination game.

5) Detroit Lions - Schwartz men no more - these Lions keep winning and they've got a very manageable road ahead with the Buccaneers, Vikings and Bears still left on the schedule.

6) Arizona Cardinals - I predict a photo finish with the Cowboys or 49ers for the final spot in the playoffs, but the Cardinals have a head-to-head win against Dallas and will likely get the tie-breaker with San Francisco sitting at 1 - 3 in the division and having to go up to Seattle in two weeks.


Wild Card Round: Seahawks over Cardinals, Saints over Lions

Divisional Round: Packers over Saints, Seahawks over Eagles

AFC Championship: Packers over Seahawks


Super Bowl: Packers over Patriots - You know you want to see this one happen again.