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Hard to believe, but it's the final week of the regular season. The only playoff teams yet to be decided are the NFC South division "winner" and the final wild card spot in the AFC, but there's still some shuffling of the seeding deck to be done. With that in mind, I've separated the games a bit differently today into games that matter at all for January versus games that you really shouldn't bother with unless you're a masochist or snowed in. Anyway, here's what I think:
Games That Matter: Ranked by Entertainment Value and Playoff Significance
1) Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-7.5) - It’s no sudden death situation like the Falcons-Panthers game below, but I cannot in good conscience tell you that the winner-take-all limp-fest in the NFC South will be remotely as good as this game, which will decide the winner of the NFC North. You may have seen some charming Tweets this week that there are players on Detroit’s roster who weren’t even born yet the last time the Lions won at Lambeau Field. With Green Bay virtually unbeatable at home and Detroit due for some bad karma after center Dominic Raiola’s continually bad decisions after the whistle, I’ll take the Pack anytime. Still, it’d be a treat to see the Lions’ superb defense frustrate Aaron Rodgers just a little bit.
3) San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) - Here’s a big domino for the AFC wild card between two pretty evenly matched division rivals. If the Chargers win, they’re in. If the Chiefs win and both Baltimore and Houston lose, they’re in. I have to wonder how the Chargers will manage with so many injuries, especially on defense. They aren't great against the run, and that's quite obviously the Chiefs' bread and butter. But after much wavering, I just can't pick against San Diego in December, especially after their Team of Destiny comeback against the 49ers last week. Somehow, Philip Rivers will find a way.
4) Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) - This game’s just a bit less interesting now that both teams have secured at least a wild card berth, but it should be an excellent matchup nonetheless that we might end up seeing in January too. Cincy’s coming off one of its most impressive wins of the season after making Peyton Manning look foolish in Week 16. Although the Bengals definitely have a shot again this week if that defense and Jeremy Hill continue to come up big, I still like the Big Ben/Le'Veon Bell combo better.
6) Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-6) - If Jim Harbaugh really wants to get the last laugh against the Seahawks and his own front office, I could see him sabotaging this final game so that the Cardinals still have a shot at the division title. But I think there are also enough players on the roster who want to send him off in style, and they'll get to have some fun with the Cardinals' raw rookie QB Logan Thomas in the process.
7) St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-12.5) - So the Rams' magical run of crashing other people's parties seems to be at an end in 2014. If somehow they pull off the upset this week in one of the hardest stadiums to do so, they will have given the Cardinals above (and just about every other NFC contender) a real leg up in January. I just don't see it happening, but that means we potentially have a Cowboys-Seahawks rematch in the Hawks' Nest to look forward to in a few weeks.
8) Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-14.5) - Since you asked, I’ll be playing for my Fantasy Football championship this weekend against an opponent who has Peyton Manning. You may think that’s a sigh of relief based on recent weeks for the Broncos, but I am downright terrified he’ll go AWOL on the Raiders in order to get that confidence back up and secure a first-round bye for Denver. Unless there’s a blizzard at Mile High on Sunday, I see No. 18 ending the regular season on a dangerously high note.
9) Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-9.5) - I may end up getting bitten by the jinx monster for putting Houston’s last gasp at a wild card spot here, but they’re pretty low on the totem pole of tie-breakers in the AFC and they’re playing the Jaguars, which makes for very low entertainment value. Case Keenum’s a question mark for this offense, but something tells me J.J. Watt isn’t done with his MVP campaign yet and will do more than enough for the Texans to win.
Games That Don’t Matter: Watch Them if You Must, But Mark Your Calendars for Draft Day
Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) at Washington Redskinks - Although there's technically still a chance for Dallas to get a first-round bye, it would require both Green Bay and Seattle to lose on Sunday. Who knows what the Cowboys will do since they don't seem keen on resting DeMarco Murray for much of anything, but if they do, Tony Romo is playing lights out and more than capable of carrying Dallas past the Redskinks if need be.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-5) - Here’s Exhibit A for why you should never do football picks in Week 17. With the Broncos’ loss on Monday night, the Patriots have nothing to play for now that they’ve locked up the #1 seed. The Bills, on the other hand, are staring their first winning record in a decade right in the face if they can win this meaningless one. I think Buffalo's mean pass rush will take a moral victory lap around Jimmy Garoppolo in the second half.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-5.5) - I'm guessing Sun Life Stadium is going to be even a little more dead than usual in this godawful matchup. With Ryan Tannehill nearing a contract year though, I guess the Dolphins should still have a little more pep in their step than soon-to-be-oustered Rex Ryan's team.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-7) - So it appears Jay Cutler will have the final word in Chicago after all this season. That makes this game a little more intriguing from an armchair psychologist standpoint - will he play hero ball to get more out of his rumored upcoming trade or will he stick it to a coaching staff and front office that put him in the doghouse last week? I'm not sure what to think, but I certainly like Minnesota's defense and likelihood of "playing for pride" a lot more than Chicago's this week.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-2.5) - I do want to pick the Giants this week - they've been on a hot streak in December and will surely do whatever it takes to get Odell Beckham that Rookie of the Year hardware during an otherwise lost season. But New York hasn't beaten anyone of significance during their three-game win streak and the Eagles present some bad matchup problems, so I'm closing my eyes and pointing at Philly.
New Orleans Saints (-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Tanking would be such a good thing for the Saints this week. Not only would they avoid catastrophic injuries for their dwindling top talent/most expensive starters, they would take the Buccaneers out of pole position to draft Marcus Mariota in the spring. Who says cynicism is dead? Or am I confusing that with chivalry? Anyway, the Bucs will tank better regardless and the Saints will continue their streak of meaningless road wins.
So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 11 - 5
Season Record: 162 - 79 - 1
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