Week 14 Picks for Every NFL Game

We're down to the last quarter of the regular season, and it looks to be a wild finish.  It's mathematically possible for eight teams to finish 9 - 7 in the AFC, which would be better settled by a mass rock-paper-scissors tournament than whatever tie-breaker system the NFL will have to implement.  Anyway, here's what I think will happen to untangle those knots this week:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) - Vastly different styles of play and divisional ground at stake make this a drool-worthy Lady Blitz Game of the Week.  If Seattle's record so far is any indicator, the Eagles can win this one if they can get to 28 points or better.  But that's getting a lot harder to do with a revitalized Legion of Boom.  When in doubt, I gotta go defense on this one.

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-3) - The Chargers stole a win from Baltimore last week on a questionable PI call while the Dolphins barely escaped total embarrassment in the Meadowlands on Monday night.  I'm trying to learn not to overcompensate when I get things wrong, but in the karmic balance with a playoff bid on the line, I'm putting my trust in John Harbaugh and--gulp--Joe Flacco to get things done in Miami.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3) - Welp, it may be time for Steelers fans to face the music - With the exception of two implausibly good passing performances from Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh hasn't had any impressive wins this year, certainly not when they needed them most.  Of course, the Bengals are experts at wilting in opportune moments so this could end up getting sloppy.  I guess I'm going with the home team against a fairly anemic Steelers pass rush that just lost Brett Keisel for the year.

Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals (-1) - When the dust settles, one of these teams will be mighty close to punching their postseason ticket while the other will be nursing the wounds of an 0 - 3 slide.  And admittedly, I don't know where they really stand with mounting injuries and exposed weaknesses starting to eat into their winning ways.  I've changed this pick about five times in writing this.  My confirmation bias says: 1) the Cardinals are great against the run; 2) Larry Fitzgerald is coming back and Eric Berry's out; 3) Arizona has sneaky-good homefield advantage. 

New England Patriots (-3.5) at San Diego Chargers - The Chargers found new life last weekend after a prolonged slump, so I'm not counting out Philip Rivers in making life hard on the Patriots this weekend.  Nevertheless, I can count on one hand the times Bill Belichick has let this team lose consecutive games, and New England might have a little more urgency about that #1 seed this time around.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at Chicago Bears - If the Bears have a shot at this one, it'll be because their rush defense isn't so bad.  The Cowboys will definitely want the upper hand on the ground in the cold and windy environs of Chicago, and they should have it with an offensive line that would like to avenge last week's loss to the Eagles.

Indianapolis Colts (-4) at Cleveland Browns - This game is all about tempo - the Colts will want to Andrew Luck their way to an early lead with an arsenal of speedy receivers.  The Browns will want to grind it out on the ground to limit Brian Hoyer's recent forays as a gunslinger.  Hopefully Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West will keep things interesting for a bit, but it's just impossible not to see the Colts breaking away.

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos (-10) - I want this to be a top shelf game with that league-best Bills pass rush.  But Peyton Manning's not likely to repeat a lackluster performance like last week at Arrowhead, and Kyle Orton isn't even on the same planet to keep up.

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-12) - A twelve-point spread?  This Saints fan says go right ahead, Aaron Rodgers!  Still, Matt Ryan and Julio Jones have rediscovered some chemistry in recent weeks, so expect some dueling explosive plays to make this a little more fun than it should be.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Houston Texans (-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars - Why can't J.J. Watt be the MVP again?

New York Giants at Tennessee Titans (PK) - Oy. After last week's whiff in Jacksonville, who knows what the Giants will do against the 2 - 10 Titans?  After all, they've only got one more win in the midst of a horrific season.  I'm team Odell though. 

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-9.5) - The Saints should quite obviously win this one, so I'm already tearing my hair out in anticipation of them blowing it.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-9.5) - So the Lions are really going to go to the playoffs this year, huh?  Let the Jim Caldwell rollercoaster begin!

St. Louis Rams (-2.5) at Washington Redskinks - A succinct understatement: The Redskinks are having problems on defense.  The Rams are not.

New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-6) - Geno Smith vs. that pass rush is bad, bad news for the handful of Jets fans still watching.

San Francisco 49ers (-8) at Oakland Raiders - Maybe Jim Harbaugh will find some time to tour Oakland's front office during his commute across the bay.



So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 8 - 8
Season Record: 125 - 68 - 1