Week 16 Picks for Every NFL Game

Here it is - our penultimate week of regular season football.  Admittedly, it's not quite as riveting on the surface as you'd think, and if you're really dedicated, there are two games on Saturday because Roger Goodell is thirsty for ad revenue.  Anyway, here's what will happen, maybe:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys (-3) - It’s another big test for Dallas and another headlining Lady Blitz Game of the Week. I’m far from a homer for these guys, but they’ve done a masterful job with the late season schedule. Jerry Jones really needs some attention, you guys. Anyway, Andrew Luck is having one of the most productive seasons in the league while Tony Romo is having one of the most efficient ones. They’ll both need big days on Sunday - more so for Andrew Luck if DeMarco Murray winds up playing, more so for Romo if he does not.   I think the Colts' most effective option regardless is to let Luck take shots downfield early and often and force Dallas's offense to play far more up tempo than it wants to. But even the threat of DeMarco Murray playing spells bad news for Indy's run defense.

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) - Consider this the Chiefs' last gasp for a wild card spot, so we might get some "kitchen sink" antics from Andy Reid & co.  Nevertheless, the Steelers' offense looks to be a bit too much for KC to overcome, especially if Ben Roethlisberger has yet another big homefield performance.

Seattle Seahawks (-8) at Arizona Cardinals - Astoundingly, the Arizona Cardinals have already locked up a playoff spot and lead the NFC West going into Week 16. I’m not saying they’ll lie down for the red-hot Seahawks, but they just aren’t going to win the arms race with Ryan Lindley under center and don’t have a lot else to play for this week if they can’t keep Seattle in check early on. I hope Arizona’s defense comes up big to keep the game interesting, but that offense simply has no prayer against a revitalized Legion of Boom.

Denver Broncos (-3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals - Based on the way Peyton Manning and Jeremy Hill have been playing lately, this may end up being a purely ground-and-pound effort for both teams. On paper, the Bengals should give the Broncos a pretty good fight at home, but Andy Dalton has given me zero reasons to trust him in prime time in high-stakes games yet. And with a run defense as good as Denver's, it's going to be tough for Cincy not to put it all on the Red Rifle's shoulders.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

San Diego Chargers at San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) - Oy.  This game probably doesn't belong with the Well Drink crew, but I'm stretching for silver linings all over the schedule - seriously, look at all that garbage about 25 lines down.  Anyway, the 49ers look to be a messier mess than the Chargers right now.  Jim Harbaugh's a lame duck, they'll probably be down to their third-string running back (not even sure who that is), and Chris Borland - a real defensive bright spot - is likely out too. I think Philip Rivers fights for another win during a tough December schedule.

Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins (-6.5) - You know, the Vikings could totally take the Dolphins this weekend. I’m guessing they believe in their coaching situation a lot more than Miami does after another late-season flameout. Nevertheless, Minnesota’s running game is still a liability and Tannehill should have the edge in the passing game.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-6) - I’m pretty confident that the Saints are solely responsible for bringing down my weekly pick rate from great to good. Seriously, when I’ve predicted this team to win, they’ve gone 3 - 7. When I’ve predicted them to lose, they’ve gone 3 - 1 making my overall success rate 4 - 10. So you’re welcome, Saints fans. This is all I have left to salvage the season - Matt Ryan will shred us all when the Saints defense falls swiftly back to Earth in the crowd noise coffin that the Superdome has become this season. I’m jinxing the jinxiest jinx.

Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) at Houston Texans - Given their divisional record, the Ravens are in a must-win situation in Houston this weekend if they hope to lock up a wild card spot. That should be pretty doable with Houston down to rookie third-stringer Tom Savage at quarterback, even with Baltimore's secondary.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) - Editor's Note: I wrote this before I realized you all will have to be subjected to this game on Thursday Night Football, but it was a rant too cathartic to delete. I don’t know if there’s ever been a worse season to be imprisoned in the Tennessee Titans’ media market. Seriously, while the rest of the country gets to see games that have any semblance of playoff significance, the angry [and non-supportive] citizens of Memphis will be stuck white-knuckling their way through 180 minutes with two 2 - 12 teams trying their best to lock up Marcus Mariota through sheer incompetence and petty gamesmanship. This is the part where rational, self-actualized people tell me to go read a book instead.  So Jaguars, I guess?

Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) at Washington Redskinks - Gee, if only Redskinks fans could take a page from the Clippers and find incriminating evidence of their owner championing racist slurs... Then they might be able to finally move on.

Green Bay Packers (-10.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - It's like David and Goliath if David was missing a couple limbs, a rock and a sling.

Detroit Lions (-7.5) at Chicago Bears - Yeesh. We all knew the Bears were bad, but Monday night’s shellacking by the New Orleans defense (really!) does not bode well for Chicago when the infinitely better Lions defense comes to town.  That scenario just got a whole lot more putrid with Jimmy Clausen taking over for Jay Cutler, so I bet tickets to Soldier Field are about to get very economical.

New England Patriots (-10) at New York Jets - Beware the trap game, Patriots.  Rex Ryan is on his way out, but that doesn't mean he won't try to spoil your Christmas in the process.

Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers (-3.5) - Welp, statistically it'd be hard for Johnny Manziel not to improve this week.  But with the Panthers having the slimmest of chances to make the playoffs and maybe getting Cam Newton back, they should have new life while haunting the rookie's nightmares.

New York Giants at St. Louis Rams (-5) - If the Rams have another offensive outing like they did last week, the Giants may have a shot, but St. Louis's defense is just too legit for my blood.  They've held four of their last five opponents to less than 14 points.

Buffalo Bills (-6) at Oakland Raiders - Proof of whether or not we have a merciful God: if the Bills can beat the truly awful Raiders this weekend, 2014 will be their first winning season since 2004.  Let's go Bills!


So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 13 - 3
Season Record: 151 - 74 - 1