Week 13 Picks for Every NFL Game

The finish line is in sight for the 2014 regular season with no more bye weeks and a whole lot of divisions up for grabs that aren’t the AFC East. I’m thankful for a cornucopia of great games coming up this holiday weekend (and family and stuff) and at peace with the fact that I probably won’t be able to repeat the kind of blistering hot picks record I achieved in Week 12. With that in mind, here goes nothing:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3) - Remember how frequently the Cowboys' Thanksgiving games have sucked in recent years?  Throw all of that out the window with a rekindled NFC East rivalry between the 8 - 3 Eagles and Cowboys.  Lady Blitz Game of the Week?  Natch.  I think the Eagles will put up a good fight, but Philly has been most successful this year by generating turnovers and getting aggressive with their pass rush.  That'll be none too easy against Dallas's MVP-worthy offensive line.  Also going against the Eagles: Mark Sanchez.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-1) - I love how the NFL seems to pick the most delightfully nasty rivalries to round out the Thanksgiving slate at night.  It doesn't get much bloodier than the Seahawks and 49ers, and given the state of the NFC wild card race, this could end up being a fatal blow to at least one of these teams' playoff hopes.  In a game that always seems to be up for grabs until the final whistle, I see the Niners eking it out at home with a defense that's finally back at full speed. 

Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-2.5) - Josh  Gordon and Sammy Watkins.  Two brutal defenses.  Two befuddling quarterbacks.  It could all mean a lot of fun as these surprisingly good teams muscle for position in the heated AFC playoff race.  The Bills usually let me down when I pick 'em, so apologies in advance to this cabin-feverish fan base, but I think Buffalo's run-stuffing ways will be too much for the Browns to hold steady on offense.

New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers (-3) - Were there not more pressing playoff implications elsewhere on the schedule, this would surely be the Lady Blitz Game of the Week. But barring unforeseen disaster, the Pats and the Pack look like shoe-ins for their division titles at this point, so this is just offensive juggernaut lagniappe for all of us. Never thought I’d see those three words strung together.  Also, I would not complain at all if these two teams end up meeting again in February. For that reason, this is a tough game to pick - the Packers are mighty good at home, but these are the kind of coaching performances Bill Belichick lives for.  Somehow, I think he'll find one too many wrinkles for Mike McCarthy and Dom Capers to adapt to.

 Denver Broncos (-1.5) at Kansas City Chiefs - Alright, alright.  This might be a far-fetched pick, especially seeing how the Chiefs just laid an egg in Oakland a week ago.  The Broncos should absolutely win this game by most statistical measures, but I'm thinking of two things: 1) that Denver's offensive line has really struggled - not a good matchup against a solid Chiefs pass rush; and 2) I believe in emotional games.  With Eric Berry sidelined for the season with a possible lymphoma diagnosis, you better believe KC is going to try to get a big-time W for him in prime time.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-7) - Detroit should have reason to celebrate this season with a ferocious defense matching up against the sputtering Bears' offense on Turkey Day.  Jay Cutler will bring his famous pouting casserole for all to share!

San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) -The Ravens look primed to make a playoff run with plenty of juice in the receiving corps and a young, disruptive defense stepping up nicely against the lesser teams Baltimore should beat.  The Chargers fit that "lesser teams Baltimore should beat" bill to a tee.

New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) - Alright Saints, it is time to tank like there's no tomorrow until the month of April.  Whatever NFC South team falls backwards into the playoffs could end up going 15 spots later in the draft than it would otherwise be.  And this team desperately needs some young, physical talent in the trenches that Pittsburgh will be taking advantage of this week.

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons - Talk about yin and yang, this game may come to symbolize the best and worst coaching regimes in the NFL right now. The Falcons are beyond desperate at this point to keep the NFC South title in their sights, but the Cardinals’ secondary always seems to have Matt Ryan’s number, so Arizona it is.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Washington Redskinks at Indianapolis Colts (-9.5) - It's Colt vs. the Colts on Sunday in the next chapter of the Redskinks' revolving door of quarterbacks.  So I'm picking the plural team.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-6.5) - I was wrong about a lot of preseason win-loss predictions, but I did peg the Titans as a 4 - 12 team, just sayin'.  Even Ryan Fitzpatrick should be fine facing his former, downtrodden team.  And as a bonus, he's been ready for Movember for months!

New York Giants (-2.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars - After dropping six straight games during a brutal stretch in the schedule, the Giants should finally have some relief this week.  In fact, they could make a nice meaningless run to close out the season with the Jags, Titans, Redskinks and Rams coming up.  That's enough for Odell Beckham to start his own NFL Globetrotters series against some spotty secondaries.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The Buccaneers are still trying.  The Buccaneers are still bad.  Plus, the only time Andy Dalton can be called reliable is from the hours of 12 - 3pm, which is good for the Bengals this week.

Oakland Raiders at St. Louis Rams (-7) - I was genuinely impressed with the Raiders' sole win to this point in the season last week.  That was no accident - they were aggressive upfront in keeping the Chiefs off schedule and had some pretty plays from rookie Derek Carr.  Still, does anyone think they can do it again, especially away from home against a fantastic front seven?

Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings (-3) - The Panthers could definitely win this thing depending on how many ice baths Cam Newton was able to take during his time off. Still, the way Carolina's offensive line has struggled, they'll have a very tough time in the frosty environs of Minnesota against Everson Griffin and his sack-happy colleagues.

Miami Dolphins (-6) at New York Jets - Somehow the Jets have come back around in deciding their best quarterback option is Geno Smith.  That is all.



So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 13 - 2
Season Record: 117 - 60 - 1