Week 11 Picks for Every NFL Game

Football things are happening! This very weekend. Let's see what the Lady Blitz crystal ball has in store for everyone, shall we? And in case you missed it yesterday, here are the most and least tormented franchises in the NFL for a bonus Thursday diversion.

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-3) - Just two weeks after our first Brady-Manning bout of the year, we've got another potential classic on our hands when the Pats go to the House of Luck in prime time. Was there any doubt this would be the Lady Blitz Game of the Week?  Sooner or later the young gun in Indianapolis will have that "elite QB" label to himself in the AFC, but I don't think Tom Brady is ready to give up that crown just yet.  He's played lights out ever since the Gronk returned to full health, and the Patriots have simply beaten better teams this year than the Colts.  Throw in the fact that Bill Belichick has had two straight weeks to prepare for this one, and I'm sticking with New England another year.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-5.5) - Thursday night has another big-time divisional battle on its hands with the 5 - 4 Bills and Dolphins jockeying for position in a very crowded AFC.  These teams' strengths and weaknesses are so similar, it's a coin flip kind of game as far as I'm concerned.  My hunch says the Dolphins have a few more weapons on offense and homefield advantage going their way.  Plus, it just seems right that these two rivals will split this season in that highly scientific cosmic balance.

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-5.5) - Mark Sanchez vs. Aaron Rodgers? Can’t hardly wait. There’s a good chance this game will get out of hand early as most games do for visitors at Lambeau Field. Still, if I’m giving the Eagles a chance here, Philly’s defense and special teams have flown under the radar but been excellent this year. Although the Panthers aren’t the Packers, the Eagles had 9 sacks, 3 interceptions and 2 forced fumbles against Carolina last week plus a punt returned for a touchdown. If they can throw Rodgers out of rhythm early and maintain good field position, they’ve got a chance here. But I still think that chance is pretty slim.

Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) - This could be a superbly ugly game given how well the Chiefs defense is playing lately. I don’t see a scenario where they allow Marshawn Lynch to put up 4 TDs the way he did last week in manhandling the Giants. In fact, Kansas City hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown yet this season, and that could really hamper the Seahawks from executing their typical “run first and wear them down” game plan.  It feels weird to pick against Seattle, but they've had a pretty weird year and the Chiefs aren't a great matchup for them.

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (-2) - If you thought Bruce Arians was a wizard before, he's got one of his greatest coaching tests yet this week with Drew Stanton starting against a very good Lions team.  I expect this to be a low-scoring slugfest between two excellent defenses vying for the top seed in the NFC, but as good as Arians has been, it'd be a miracle for him to sneak by that Detroit front four with Stanton and Andre Ellington.  Nevertheless, I very much look forward to Patrick Peterson squaring off with Calvin Johnson.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-3) - It’s lonely in the Well Drink bucket this week, but  Texans v. Browns is a good candidate for four competitive quarters of old-school, smashmouth football that may well hinge on who makes the fewest mistakes. Adding to the intrigue is Ryan Mallett, who will start his first game under center with Houston this week. In a move I'll almost certainly regret, I'm making a last-minute switch to the favored Browns.  The Texans have a real shot here with Arian Foster against a shaky rush defense and Mallett, whom Cleveland has almost zero film on, but maybe the Browns are actually good while the Texans are mediocre.

Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints (-3) - Nothing surprises me anymore with the Saints. Nothing. They could easily lose this game to a Bengals team that’s about to get desperate with so much divisional competition in the AFC North. Weirdly enough, you could say the same thing about the 4 - 5 Saints despite the failures of the rest of the NFC South. I’m just hoping they can hold on through the end of the fourth quarter but maybe give up a touchdown or two before then to Jeremy Hill to help me save my own fantasy season. (RIP, Carson Palmer...). Who Dat > Who Dey

San Francisco 49ers (-4) at New York Giants - I admire the Giants for their three quarters of real fight against the Seahawks in Seattle last week. Ultimately though, they got pulverized by that Beast Mode ground game that never quits, which looks like a perfect recipe for San Francisco this weekend on the back of Frank Gore. Seriously New York, if you’re going to do that once-every-four-years improbable Super Bowl run, you’ve got to get yourself in gear now or never.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3) - Fact: getting walloped in a rout is not actually a good predictor of how well or poorly a team will do the next week compared to the incoming competition. Case-in-point: the Buccaneers’ only victory this year was a stunning last-minute upset in Pittsburgh after giving up 56 points to the Falcons. The Bears looked atrocious in Green Bay and in Foxboro before that, and like the Vikings, they can pretty much kiss the playoffs goodbye at this point. But I still think they’ll do better than Minnesota in the confines of Soldier Field with a more experienced (but equally battered) quarterback than the Vikings.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-1.5) -  Just when you thought you were safe for a little while from the woes of the NFC South, we’re getting another gem this weekend starring two of the worst offensive lines in football and two very porous defenses. First QB to turn into pink mist loses.  Based on the medieval treatment Cam Newton received on Monday night--and for shame, Ron Rivera, for keeping him in the game way too long--I think the Panthers will be on the losing end this time.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskinks (-7) - I don’t have the energy to research this one, but I’m pretty sure this has been an NFC last-place punch bowl game for at least three of the past four seasons. If Tampa has a shot, the Redskinks’ offensive line really let them down in Minnesota two weeks ago, but the Bucs will also have to put up some semblance of points and yards on offense, so good luck with that.

Denver Broncos (-9.5) at St. Louis Rams - If you [rightfully] thought this game was going to be a snoozefest before, St. Louis is sitting gunslinger Austin Davis for Shaun Hill. Boo to that. But hey, the Rams have already beaten the Seahawks and 49ers this year, so maybe they’ll pull off another one of those 60 minute bouts of nothing-to-lose craziness. I don’t see the Broncos falling for it though.

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-10) - I don’t know if you should take the points on this one. The Chargers have lost their early season mojo and Oakland was four points away from an upset in these teams’ first meeting this year. Universal counterpoint: but it’s the Raiders.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) at Tennessee Titans - Back when the Tennessee Titans were relevant, this was a fun and weird rivalry for a few years. Heck, they still managed to beat the Steelers last year despite being entirely inept. And the way Pittsburgh is playing teams like the Jets, Buccaneers and Jaguars this season, I wouldn’t be so sure the Titans can’t pull this one off. If they do though, it will because the Steelers beat themselves. With the stakes so high in the AFC North, I think they’ll pull themselves together this week.


So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 9 - 4
Season Record: 93 - 53 - 1