Playoff Predictions: Super Bowl XLVIII

In less than 96 hours, one exceptional NFL team and its fan base are going to be very happy with a Lombardi to cap off a remarkable season. Oh, you don't know which team I'm alluding to?  There's a reason because I am absolutely dreading this prediction but couldn't be more excited about the game itself.  Why, you ask?  Because even the Madden and Tecmo simulations of this game--meant to take human bias out of things--both have SB XLVIII going into overtime.  These two teams are peerless on opposite sides of the ball, and there's never been a Super Bowl between opponents with a wider margin between average offensive yards/points and average defensive yards/points allowed. So the painfully simple question is, will it be push or shove?  Here are my top five less obtuse questions about the Super Bowl and a  Hail Mary of a game pick:

Q1: What makes Denver's offense so great, and where's the Achilles Heel?
By now, I'm guessing you know that the Broncos broke a ton of league records on offense including points and yards earned in a season and most passing TDs and yards thanks to that Peyton Manning guy.  The "secret" to Denver's unprecedented success is hardly a gimmick - they have the smartest quarterback in the NFL who added to his embarrassment of riches this season with Wes Welker and Montee Ball.  He reads defenses better than anyone and has a sixth sense for calling the right audible at the line of scrimmage.  Even better this time, Manning is getting the very best out of his offensive line with the fewest sacks allowed in the league and a very serviceable running game that has kept defenses honest all season long.  The Broncos could be in trouble if there's a major blizzard on Sunday that would slow down Manning's no huddle and limit his ability to distribute the ball through the air, but that seems pretty unlikely.  If they do have an Achilles Heel, it would be one of two things we've hardly seen this season - knocking Manning down early and often or jamming his receivers upfront to throw off that rhythm passing game.  For the Seahawks to do well against this holy terror of an offense, we may need to hear a whole lot more about Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett than Richard Sherman, in other words.  But we've seen them do it with Drew Brees and Colin Kaepernick behind multiple Pro Bowlers on their offensive lines, so never say never.

Q2: What makes Seattle's defense so great, and where's the Achilles Heel?
Similar to the Broncos on the opposite side of the ball, the Seahawks top the NFL ranks in nearly all major defensive categories.  The Legion of Boom in particular may be the best secondary we've seen in this modern pass-heavy era, and like Peyton Manning's approach to the offensive game, their success is rooted in fundamentals - dedication to film study and playing a very physical style of coverage against receivers.  They are punishing in limiting yards after reception and contact in the Game of Inches.  In addition to being stingy with yardage and TDs, the Seahawks led the league in turnovers this season.  This could be all the difference for Seattle on Sunday since they'll likely need to give their offense extra possessions to keep pace with Denver.  As mentioned above, look for Seattle to play it straight with tight man-to-man coverage and lots of extracurriculars around the line of scrimmage to keep the Broncos off-rhythm and off-route.  If they have an Achilles Heel, it is allowing the power running game to get going.  Even the best defense can get winded with enough persistence success up the gut, as evidenced by Frank Gore's 51-yarder back in December.  Manning will almost certainly lean on Knowshon Moreno to keep the Seattle guessing, but he can also take some shots down the middle of the field since the Seahawks are at their best driving receivers to the sidelines, but it may result in some big hit casualties if they aren't careful.

Q3: What about the other side of the ball?
So if we assume the hotly anticipated matchup between Denver's offense and Seattle's defense means the Broncos walk away with 50 - 75% of the points they normally do, where does that leave things with Denver's defense and Seattle's offense?  The former has been on the rise over the last month, allowing just 15 points per game, while the latter has been holding steady but nowhere near the 30 - 40 point routs they put on in the middle of the season.  The heart of the Seahawks' offense is of course Marshawn Lynch, but the way Terrance Knighton & co. dismantled Ryan Mathews and then the Patriots' three-headed rushing attack should give them pause.  It'd be ideal from Seattle's standpoint to wear Denver's defense down with a heavy dose of Beast Mode, but the much more favorable matchups are in the passing game.  Russell Wilson's best bet may be to work the play action and use some tricks up his sleeve with Percy Harvin, since there is almost zero film on how he fits into the Seahawks' scheme to prepare for.  You heard it here first, folks: the real difference in the game will be how Denver's secondary stands up to Seattle's offense.

Q4: What about the intangibles?
... Otherwise known as those arbitrary factors that help all of us rationalize our way into a clear and simple answer.  Well, if there's one thing I have a hard time shaking that puts the odds in the Seahawks' favor, it is that Denver had an insanely easy regular season and postseason schedule to glide through while they were racking up their Tecmo numbers.  That could lead to overconfidence at the least and total shell shock at worst if Seattle dictates the game's tempo and forces pressure and/or turnovers early.  When you look at recent Super Bowl winners like the Ravens, Giants and Packers, they had to claw their way up after tough losses against difficult opponents late in the season.  The Broncos haven't had nearly the close calls or the grind-it-out slugfests that even the 13-win Seahawks did this season, and that could mean less battle testing to draw on in this big moment.  Conversely, Seattle's lack of experience is much more pronounced than that of the Denver roster or coaching staff.  Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson have never been to the Super Bowl while their coach and QB counterparts have.  Moreover, if you believe in things like motivational destiny, this may be the last season for the Broncos' Champ Bailey and even Peyton Manning.  Manning has already silenced critics this postseason with big wins in  the playoffs, in the cold, and against the rival Patriots, so he's entering Sunday with some confidence and he has a locker room that would love nothing more than to get him (and themselves) another ring. You can't beat that motivation if you think the Seahawks have more reason to believe they'll be back here soon regardless of what happens.

Q5: So what's your dumb prediction already?
It would be just as well flipping a coin to give you an answer here, but I'm going to stick with the adage that defense wins championships.  By most accounts the Broncos should win this one, but I've seen the Seahawks dismantle similar offenses all season long, and they won't be fooled by Denver's audibles because they play everything straight.  Russell Wilson is among the best at keeping a cool head and making smart plays regardless of how stout Denver's defense has become, and I don't see the bright lights changing that on Sunday.  I say Seahawks 27, Broncos 23.  MVP: Russell Wilson


So How's My Postseason Pickin'?
So Far: 6 - 4
Against the Spread: 7 - 2 - 1

Who Should I Cheer For in the Super Bowl?: Reasons to Love and Hate the Broncos and Seahawks

There are the few and proud Denver and Seattle fans who are waiting in hot anticipation for their shot at the ultimate victory on Sunday.  (For the record, I pretty much always cheer for the bridesmaid on these kind of things, so Seahawks it is).  But for that other 94%-ish of fans who've watched their own teams go down on the spectrum from predictable to agonizing fashion this year, you're probably still on the fence about who to adopt until September finally rolls around again.  Fear not, dear reader! Here's the fair and balanced Lady Blitz guide for you to weigh your options with Reasons to Love and Hate the Broncos and Seahawks:

Reasons to Love the Broncos 

• A Perfect End to Peyton's Perfect Season - From a purely objective statistical standpoint, no quarterback has ever had a more productive season than Peyton Manning, who has aged like a fine wine at 37 despite coming back from major neck surgery just two years ago.  Whether or not you typically root for the guy, you have to admit there would be some kind of karmic injustice if his Broncos fail to take home the Lombardi after such a historic season.  Ripped from the plot of Rocky, it seems all too appropriate that he will have to jump through a flaming hoop lined with dragon teeth known as the Legion of Boom to claim the elusive title.  And though Manning has already had a first-ballot Hall of Fame career, this would unquestioningly be the biggest win of them all.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him ride off into the sunset the way of Michael Strahan or Jerome Bettis if he pulls it off.  Ditto to Denver legend Champ Bailey in his 15th NFL season.
• An Underrated Defense on the Rise - For all of the deserved fanfare Manning's offense and Seattle's defense have gotten leading up to Super Bowl Sunday, the Broncos' defense has flown under the radar despite some inspired play as of late.  You might have thought they were a huge liability with memorable lapses against the Cowboys, Colts, Patriots and Chargers in the regular season, but they've only allowed an average of 15 points over their past four games despite losing Von Miller to injury among others for the year.  In the playoffs, they held the high-flying Chargers scoreless for three quarters and kept Tom Brady and New England's formidable rushing attack in check so that the hotly anticipated "shootout" was never in question.  Who needs Von Miller anyway when you've got a guy named Pot Roast?  If you're cheering for Denver this weekend, keep an eye on enormous rising defensive tackle Terrance Knighton - he'll be a key matchup for Marshawn Lynch and Seattle's reshuffled offensive line.
• Gratitude for Your Fantasy Football Team - Fact: There was a guy in my fantasy league who had Peyton Manning, Eric Decker, AND Matt Prater (and LeSean McCoy).  It just wasn't fair - he totally destroyed us all pretty much every week.  Chances are if you had any one of those guys or Demaryius Thomas... or Wes Welker... or Julius Thomas... or Knowshon Moreno, you had a pretty good year.  There's been nary a weak spot in Denver's entire offensive cast of characters all year, and they've become household names thanks to superlative strategy and execution by one Peyton Manning.  For everything they've done for you to have Tecmo numbers in your league this year, you owe them some positive vibes for the biggest game of their lives.  

Reasons to Hate the Broncos

• An Agonizing Possibility of Collapse - Despite all that Peyton Manning and his well-rounded cast of characters in Denver have done right this season, I bet more than a few Broncos fans are still feeling a bit nervous about Sunday.  You already know the stats on Manning's mediocrity in the postseason and in cold weather, which is sure to be a factor at MetLife Stadium.  For all of the success Denver has had this season, you could certainly argue that there's a lot more pressure on them to have another flawless game this weekend knowing that No. 18's professional career is in its winter.  For the second consecutive year, the Broncos have had one of the easiest schedules in the NFL and simply have not faced a defensive opponent on par with Seattle's.  They are not used to playing from behind or having many meaningful fourth quarters, so all eyes will be on how Denver responds if this game turns out to be close and physical.  Throw in any kind of wintry mix of precipitation, and the Broncos will have to shelve the offensive attack that has worked so well in the pristine Mile High playoffs weather for a ground-and-pound style that favors Seattle.
• Peyton Manning, Ad Harlot and Whiner - Apologies for the awkward phrasing - I'm trying to be family friendly here.  It's no secret on this blog that Peyton Manning is just not my cup of tea.  I get that he's an extraordinary athlete and appreciate that his strength lies so much more with his football IQ than with physical talent alone, but that doesn't mean I need to see him hawk everything from Oreos to mid-sized sedans for the highly sought-after senior citizen commercial demographic.  For every one fairly amusing tongue in cheek skit, there are about five absolutely insufferable "aw shucks" spots with Papa John's that would make Andy Griffith feel embarrassed.  Although, who wouldn't want to see this guy's down-home drawl totally ruin a Beats headphone commercial?  Sure, Manning acts like he has a sense of humor about himself when the endorsements are flowing, but that will all change Sunday the moment the Seahawks break up a pass cleanly.  Expect major Manning-face at the first sign of frustration and lots of extracurricular chats with the refs if Seattle's pass rush gets to him.

• Worse Bandwagon Fans - Don't worry, Denver.  I'll be getting to Seattle's Twelfth Man in a minute, but the Broncos are likely to reel in worse bandwagon fans this time.  This is coming from someone who lives in the part of Tennessee that should not care about the Vols, but they always come out of the woodwork when it's convenient.  The same "fans" who would be saying I told ya so if Manning's Broncos had been anything less than perfect in January will be at your Super Bowl party this weekend sporting whatever orange they own acting as though they knew all along that this would happen.  And a new subset of them are hopping on the Broncos bandwagon merely because of Richard Sherman.  Caveat: Everyone is entitled to an opinion, and it is understandable to be turned off by Sherman's less-than-sportsmanlike comments.  However, there are also these people trying to high five you right now, so enjoy that.

Reasons to Love the Seahawks

• A Rag-Tag Bunch of Underdogs - In the interest of helping us all move on from the cultural hysteria of Richard Sherman, I'm going to assume that you already know about his purely awesome backstory.  But Sherman is only one of many unlikely stars that Pete Carroll and Seattle's front office have discovered and developed into an elite, cohesive squad.  There's also Russell Wilson who had a spectacular, record-breaking college career but wasn't drafted in the NFL until the third round because of his [lack of] size and then had to beat out two veterans in training camp to start for the Seahawks his rookie year.  Then of course there is fullback Derrick Coleman, the NFL's only deaf player, who was also overlooked by most franchises despite having a solid college career and who is most importantly a good human being.  The Seahawks have embraced a chip-on-their-shoulder identity by defying expectations at every turn, and they certainly deserve to be here just as much as the Broncos do.
• The Beast - Later on this week, I'll posit that the Seahawks will likely need to execute more passing plays against the Broncos than they're accustomed to, but Marshawn Lynch is still the heart and soul of this offense.  In addition to giving Skittles millions of dollars' worth of brand exposure for free on Sunday, Lynch is in prime position to have some memorable up-the-gut-for-20+-yards snaps that could be MVP-worthy.  Even though Denver will almost certainly dedicate multiple personnel to containing Beast Mode throughout the game, it's not a matter of if but when Marshawn Lynch will tear through the secondary for a big gain.  He's done it all postseason long, sacrificing a few tackles in the backfield for those key moments late in the game when the opposing defense is worn down and trying hopelessly to tackle him downfield with alligator arms.  And he hates the media just as much as anyone.

• Defense That's Actually Fun to Watch - Not since the most recent heydey of the Steelers can I think of a defense with so many colorful characters and recognizable names as those of the Legion of Boom. In addition to one very loud cornerback you already know, there’s three-time All Pro safety Earl Thomas and his hard-hitting counterpart Kam Chancellor. And the Seahawks’ defensive line ain’t too shabby either with the disruptive tandem of Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett. But don’t expect these guys to bore you to death with lots of three-and-outs at the Super Bowl - they’ll be going for the kind of big hits and turnovers that have made them a force to be reckoned with all season long.  For all the record-breaking offensive stats the Broncos are riding going into Sunday, Seattle has been at the top of the league in most major defensive categories including points and yards allowed per game (14 and 274 respectively), takeaways (39), opposing QB rating (29) and allowing a touchdown only once for every three red zone trips an opponent makes.

Reasons to Hate the Seahawks

• Fueling the Twelfth Man - I alluded to this in my preseason Love & Hate preview for the Seahawks, but Seattle's fans collectively known as the Twelfth Man have definitely made the leap this season from mildly endearing to infallibly smug.  Though they have a roster stacked with Pro Bowlers on both sides of the ball, they are clearly most in love with the face in the mirror, whose most redeeming quality is just being really loud.  So if you're already rolling your eyes over having to look at the decibel count during every single home game coupled with a bunch of ogres yelling at the network cameras with veins popping out of their necks like they're really contributing to society, you're probably waiting impatiently to see some crushed egos and tears of green-and-blue face paint should the Broncos get the upper hand.  There's certainly a part of me that wants this guy's obnoxious tattoo to be completely irrelevant.

• They Kind of Cheat, Maybe - No, I'm not talking about abusing PEDs or Adderall - there isn't a team in the league that doesn't have players in this camp.  For all of the praise and results the Legion of Boom secondary gets for shutting down the passing game, their methods may be more than a little shady.  Some even argue that the Seahawks' defensive mode of operation is to commit pass interference on virtually every play to keep receivers from having any real shot at making a play with the assumption that the refs are only going to call it sporadically.  So if you see Peyton Manning and his receivers throwing their hands up at the officiating crew in exasperation this weekend, they may have a point.  Whether you believe this to be true or even care that Seattle is taking advantage of the rules that have become so offense-oriented in this era, the Seahawks are objectively the most penalized defense in the league.  If Manning and the Denver coaches are effective in lobbying for more stringent officiating on Sunday, it could spell trouble for a team that has made this disruptive style their bread and butter all season long.
• The Possibility of Pete Carroll Evading Karma - If there are any football fans out there who are as vehemently opposed to the Seahawks as Broncos [and 49ers] fans are this week, I'm betting you can count the Patriots and USC faithful among them.  Pete Carroll has already left not one but two programs in total disarray in the wake of his departure with minimal negative consequences for himself.  As a Memphis Tigers fan who still gets white knuckles about John Calipari sometimes, I can relate.  So after dragging a Super Bowl-caliber franchise down and deserting another that is still recovering from the sanctions of Carroll's unscrupulous recruiting practices, there are more than a few people who'd rather see this guy flipping burgers than hoisting a Lombardi this weekend. 

Grading Each 2013-14 Playoff Team

Is it Super Bowl Sunday yet? Not quite, but rest-assured we’ve got plenty to talk about between now and then. I couldn’t be more excited about the upcoming Feast and Famine Bowl--a rare final showdown between the league’s two #1 seeds that will pit a historically good offense and defense against one another with a chance of delightfully miserable February weather. But before we delve into all of that next week, let’s take a look back at how the whole gamut of playoff teams did this postseason. Objective these grades are not, but given each team's potential versus output this January and overall balance, I'm grading to each one's ability:

Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks: A+
If I’m splitting hairs, Denver has had the better overall performance to date than Seattle in this postseason. Peyton Manning is shaking demons of playoffs past left and right with impressive production and few mistakes. In fact, in his two games in January, Manning earned a 72% completion rating and 4 TDs to just one deflected interception, but the real story here has been the Broncos’ offensive line. They’ve kept Denver’s running game clutch and remain the only team in the postseason yet to give up a sack. The Broncos’ defense has been equally impressive in January upfront, stuffing the run, pressuring the pocket and keeping the usually prolific Philip Rivers and Tom Brady to just 17 and 16 points, respectively. HOWEVER, Denver’s arguably had a powderpuff schedule compared to Seattle in this postseason. The Seahawks simply outmuscled and overpowered the Saints and 49ers despite both teams’ solid defensive performances and fated attempts to ground and pound their way out of CenturyLink. Marshawn Lynch has been less Beast Mode than Beast Default with incredible power running up the gut to seal both of the Seahawks’ wins. Then of course there’s the Legion of Boom with four turnovers, three sacks, and a whole lot of disruption all over the field. In a nutshell, if you already thought these were the best two teams that could have made the Super Bowl this season, they are peaking with balance and dominance at just the right time. Bring it on.

Carolina Panthers:C-
On paper, the Panthers looked nearly as evenly matched as the 49ers when they invited them to Charlotte in the divisional round. But the little things ended up sending Carolina packing before their playoffs really began. After getting stuffed at the goal line early, Riverboat Ron never really took another risk in getting his team back in the game. In fact, nearly half of the Panthers’ time of possession was spent on two long drives that ended with just 3 total points. Carolina revealed themselves as the less experienced and less disciplined team in this one, giving the 49ers a stunning 5 first downs on penalties and losing the game’s only two turnovers. The chippiness and constant jawing added to the admittedly entertaining WWE atmosphere of the game, but in the end, the Panthers played solidly for only half the game and proved more bark than bite against the surging 49ers.

Cincinnati Bengals: D-
In some sense, this could have easily been an F, but there’s no sense in punishing the rest of the Bengals for Andy Dalton’s second half collapse against the Chargers. The defense and running game mostly held their own leading San Diego into the third quarter, but they just couldn’t overcome four nasty turnovers, three of which Dalton was responsible for. Despite the Bengals looking more balanced and confident than they have since their glory days, they found yet another way to lose to a team that arguably shouldn’t have been in the playoffs to begin with. I feel bad for Cincy fans but I feel even worse for the Redskins faithful. They have to deal with Jay Gruden’s boneheaded rush-averse playcalling unless RG3 is ready to rediscover his 2012 self in September.

Green Bay Packers: C+
Since their spectacular 2010 Super Bowl run, the Packers have been pretty forgettable in the postseason, and this year was no exception. But they held their own this year a lot better than people will probably remember, all things considered. Aaron Rodgers showed some rust coming off of a bad collarbone injury, but Green Bay was largely able to go toe-to-toe with San Francisco thanks to good rushing efforts from Eddie Lacy and James Starks as well as some big plays on defense. Unfortunately, the Packers’ Achilles Heel continues to be the legs of Colin Kaepernick, and it ultimately cut their postseason short once again on a game-winning San Francisco field goal as time expired.

Indianapolis Colts: B-
File this under well-worn puns, but the Colts owe a great deal of their postseason fate to luck and Luck this year. The guy was brilliant in overcoming a 28-point deficit against the Chiefs in the Wild Card round and recovered one very, very lucky fumble for a run-in score in the process. It made for just the kind of playoff game you should thank the football gods for. But Indy’s similarly sloppy performance a week later in Foxboro led to drastically different results, thanks in large part to Andrew Luck’s four interceptions. Truthfully, it’s the kind of thing you’d expect out of the only team that has beaten both Super Bowl contenders this season but also got pummeled by the Rams and the Cardinals. With a viable running game though, these guys could obviously take a big leap in the offseason.

Kansas City Chiefs: B+
Grading on a curve, the Chiefs get major pity points for losing three Pro Bowlers and sinking down to their third-string running back by the fourth quarter against the Colts. I lamented after the Wild Card round during which Alex Smith had the game of his life and Kansas City won the turnover battle in the process of jumping out to a 28-point lead before all injury hell broke loose. This B+ may be misguided by some schadenfreude for the Colts, but the Chiefs did just about everything they could to try to win this game despite many an unfavorable bounce. Better luck next year.

New England Patriots: B-
On the one hand, any year without a Super Bowl appearance feels like somewhat of a disappointment for Patriots fans. I certainly thought they’d be a perfect match for what could be a sub-zero Super Bowl in the snow anyway. Still, given all of the injuries and churn in the passing game and on the New England defense, these guys outperformed when it comes to the season as a whole. They had one of their most dominant games against the Colts in the divisional round on the legs of LeGarrette Blount, only to fizzle out completely in Denver a week later. Perhaps it was meant to be with the kind of season Peyton Manning has had, but I feel like the Pats--and Tom Brady in particular--owed us more of a fight so that we wouldn’t be entertaining switching over to tennis instead. Despite losing Aquib Talib to a [surprisingly] brutal hit from Wes Welker in the second quarter, the Pats held the Broncos to just 13 points in the first half, a huge opening that Brady’s offense just couldn’t capitalize on with unaffordable sacks, sailing passes and limited success in the run game. They practically invented the hashtag #FeedVereen

New Orleans Saints: B
The Saints surpassed many expectations, especially mine, by having unorthodox success on the ground and playing solid defense against the Eagles. They notched their first ever road playoff victory in the process. Unfortunately, they are who we thought they were when they went to Seattle the following week for the divisional round. The offensive stats paint a prettier picture than reality, as the Saints outgained the Seahawks by over 100 yards and ran twice as many plays. But they piled on with untimely mistakes including two missed field goals, a fumble, and some downright awful clock management in the fourth quarter. At least Jimmy Graham will get paid, I guess?

Philadelphia Eagles: C-
In some sense, just getting to the playoffs was a big win for the Eagles this year.  After starting out 3 - 5, they closed out the season on a 7 - 1 tear with Pro Bowl play from Nick Foles and LeSean McCoy.  But there's plenty of room for improvement, should Philly be in a similar position a year from now.  They adapted the game plan a little too late against the Saints, letting New Orleans--and Mark Ingram of all people!--run all over them; they only turned to Nick Foles in the 4th quarter to try and bail them out.   At least they ended up making things interesting before the Saints came away with a last-second field goal, but young coach Chip Kelly has a bit to learn with adapting to the playoffs environment.

San Diego Chargers: B+
Steelers fans might understandably give the Chargers a "Not Applicable" for their controversial entry into the playoffs, but San Diego gave it all they had.  They first pulled off a major upset against the Bengals on the road, making Andy Dalton look absolutely declawed in the process.  Then, they almost rallied against the Broncos in Denver despite trailing 0 - 17 at the start of the 4th quarter.  Similar to the Patriots, the Chargers ran into a brick wall with the Broncos' improved defense, especially in the running game that had been so effective, but it makes you wonder if they could have pulled off yet another upset if they had been able to get Rivers in a rhythm 15 minutes earlier.

San Francisco 49ers: A-
San Francisco fans have to be feeling stung after a well-fought but unsuccessful outing against the hated Seahawks on Sunday.  I know exactly how they feel - it's pretty much the same as when the Saints fell to the Niners on that last-second Smith-to-Davis touchdown pass three years ago in the divisional round.  But back to 2014 - although anything less than a Lombardi is a huge disappointment for the 49ers after three consecutive NFC Championship appearances, they really did have a great postseason.  They won their 4th consecutive game against the always-dangerous Packers in sub-zero temperatures, they dominated the then-hottest team the Carolina Panthers at their own ground-and-pound game, and they were second only to the Arizona Cardinals in giving the Seahawks a run for their money at home.  Were it not for a sloppy 4th quarter during which Colin Kaepernick turned the ball over three times, San Francisco would likely be sitting pretty at the top of this post.  Next year, I reckon they'll decide against throwing a right corner fade to Michael Crabtree since it has ended both of the 49ers' most recent seasons.

Why Everyone Should Chill Out About Richard Sherman: An Obligatory Two Cents

Say what you will about the theatrics of Richard Sherman's post-NFC Championship end zone celebration and interview with Erin Andrews yesterday.  Let's first acknowledge that this was an instant classic between two incredibly talented teams who left it all on the field and penned the best chapter yet in this young rivalry.  From the first strip-sack of Russell Wilson to Sherman's superbly athletic deflection in the end zone to clinch the Seahawks' Super Bowl bid, this was the defensive battle royale we hoped for all week long.  It certainly beat the pants off of that rout in Denver earlier in the day, anyway.

I admit my first visceral reaction to Sherman's WWE-style takedown of Michael Crabtree was to cringe.  The guy had just made one of the most astonishing plays I've ever seen--right up there with the handful of last-second TD passes embedded in every obligatory playoffs highlight reel in existence--and he decided to spend his first moments of victory stomping on the [playoff] grave of the opponent he very clearly had already gotten the better of?  I thought, What else is there really left to say about the 49ers when you've already made your point loud and clear on the field?  And also, Erin Andrews really needs a drink and a new set of eyebrows.  But after a tidal wave of internet outrage and backlash to the backlash that presently seems to eclipse anything else these two teams and their army of Pro Bowlers did yesterday, I figure I'll hop on the opinion bandwagon and hopefully give you some reasons to chill out about Richard Sherman and get ready for [potentially] one of the best Super Bowl matchups we've had in a long time:

1) It Was Just a Postgame Interview, For Goodness' Sake - Underscoring some things I hinted at above, it's more than a little bizarre that Sherman's very brief (2 question!) interview with Andrews seems to have given everyone amnesia about the rest of the game.  And if you reread the transcript of said 2-question interview, he says nothing outside of the realm of ordinary NFL trash talk and nothing violent or profane at that.  Rather, the outrage seems to come from the tone (yes, an intentionally loaded term) of Sherman's answers, despite the fact that the guy had made the biggest play of his life just seconds earlier.  I'm certainly not saying it was a great interview by any means, but it's pretty unrealistic to assume every player in that situation would naturally turn off the adrenaline and emotions of the moment to give the standard "how does it feel?" answers we've grown to expect and immediately forget.  To suggest that his feisty comments somehow make him a "thug" compared to the many former and current players who have legitimate felony-class criminal records is knee-jerk to say the least.  Caveat: Sherman's choke-hold symbol in the end zone was definitely not a classy look though.

2) Richard Sherman Actually Is the League's Best Cornerback - We tend to give athletes in more glamorous positions a little leeway when they boast about being the best, why not the league's best cornerback who said as much on Sunday?  He led the league in interceptions this year and over these past two seasons combined despite the fact that the ball comes his way far less than it does to his other teammates in Seattle's secondary.  He's also among the best at deflecting balls for interceptions and boasts the lowest QB rating in the league when passers try to target the receiver he's covering.  And despite being drafted in the fifth round in 2011, he's already made the coveted All Pro roster two times in three years.  So for all of the talk, Sherman sure does tend to back it up better than most, and it turns out he's not competing for Ms. Manners' affection. There's just no refuting the facts even if you hate his personality.

3) You Are Absolutely Going to Want to See This Guy Face Off with Peyton Manning - Whether you want to see Richard Sherman eat his words or pick Manning's receivers apart two weeks from now, this is going to be one of the most intriguing matchups we've ever had in a Super Bowl and you have Sherman to thank for punching the Seahawks' ticket.  For all of the attention Manning [deservedly] gets for outwitting his opponents, Sherman is a brilliant foe when it comes to game strategy.  If you're not impressed after watching this, you have a bigger chip on your shoulder than he does (Confession - Upon rereading this, I grabbed a bit more from this Deadspin article than I intended, so proper citation):

Playoff Predictions: Championship Weekend 2014

It was a mediocre regular season picks in Lady Blitz land, but what can I say? I’m killing it in the postseason, at least against the spread. It sure doesn’t hurt that all four divisional favorites won for the first time in a decade, but then again, most of the games weren’t even all that close. Need I mention I picked three out of four teams correctly in the preseason that have now punched their conference championship ticket?

Okay, enough with the bravado or I’ll be getting an excessive celebration flag. Specific fan loyalties aside, this is the championship weekend we all pretty much wanted to see happen this year, and it’s finally here: two historic rivalries that will guarantee a Super Bowl with one of the best quarterbacks ever to play the game against one of the best defenses in this pass-heavy era. Let the ill-fated predictions begin!

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (-5)

The Run-Down: This thing seriously needs no introduction - you know the drill when it comes to the 15th NFL matchup between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. But because everyone else on these teams will get overshadowed all week, it’ll also be a different game than you might expect with Denver’s increasingly depleted defense versus New England’s never-better running game and an anonymous receiving corps.

How the Patriots Can Win on Offense: Analysts across America will be saying that the Patriots should play keep away in the running game after a breath-taking performance by human wrecking ball LeGarrette Blount last weekend. They aren’t wrong, but two defensively minded Denver coaches like John Fox and Jack Del Rio will be paying attention to the ground game and did a pretty darn good job themselves of thwarting the Chargers in this regard last week. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Blount used a lot more as a decoy this time around, especially if he gets bottled up early, and I expect New England to go a lot heavier on play action passes after watching Denver nearly squander a 17 - 0 lead on Sunday once Philip Rivers got going. So the Pats can keep the chains moving with frequent running back rotations in order to catch the Broncos secondary off guard when New England needs a big play. Also, because I haven’t mentioned him at all in this paragraph, Tom Brady.

How the Patriots Can Win on Defense: Third-and-long is the mantra the Patriots defense needs to keep in its psyche throughout preparations this week. It’s easier said than done against the embarrassment of riches the Broncos have on offense to catch opponents off guard for easy yardage, but New England’s secondary is good enough to stick mostly to man coverage while limiting the run on early downs. If you weren’t aware, Peyton Manning has had a pretty good year, but he’s still vulnerable to turnovers and pressure when he feels forced to carry the down - half of his interceptions and sacks this season have come on third down in fact.  If the Pats can generate even half of the interceptions they had against Andrew Luck last week, they'll have a real shot.

How the Broncos Can Win on Offense: As unimaginative as it is to say, I will pretty much echo my sentiments about the Broncos from the divisional round: build a big lead early by gassing the Patriots defense in the no-huddle and stay on schedule with the one-two punch of Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball thereafter. You might argue that slowing things down in the running game is what cost the Broncos a win when these two teams met back in November, but they’d be hard-pressed to repeat that three-fumble nightmare on what looks to be a dry, mild night at Mile High on Sunday. And it may sound superstitious, but limiting Wes Welker to high-percentage slants and fakes is probably a good thing - the guy just gets spooked in big moments, and playing in the AFC championship against your former team with some bad blood lingering qualifies as a big moment in my book. Also, because I haven’t mentioned him at all in this paragraph, Peyton Manning.

How the Broncos Can Win on Defense: The line of scrimmage is the key battle for the Broncos' defense on Sunday.  With Tom Brady and a couple of his receiving weapons ailing, the Pats will take their chances with the running game after racking up 230 yards and 6 TDs on the ground last weekend.  The Broncos certainly have the chops to stop the run without loading up the box, which will be critical to stalling New England early while Peyton tries to widen the point margin.  In the secondary, the Broncos may well sell out on covering "Minitron" Julian Edelman and take their chances with the many also-rans Brady is squeezing yards out of.  Regardless of the scheme, the more successful Denver's defense is early, the more one-dimensional the Patriots' offense will become without the time or luxury to repeat a rushing performance like last week's.

Prediction: My sense is that this game will all come down to tempo.  Denver wants a track meet and New England wants a full twelve rounds.  I'm very much inclined to pick the Patriots simply because they've had the upper hand far more often than not over these 15 meetings.  But they had to have a whole lot go right to beat the Broncos earlier this year at home, and all signs point to this being Peyton Manning's year.  Broncos 31, Patriots 24

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)

The Run-Down: The best young rivalry in the NFL today just got a whole lot realer with our third showdown between the Seahawks and 49ers this season.  Seattle has had San Francisco's number at CenturyLink the last two times these teams faced off there, but the Niners are riding an impressive streak of road wins and have to be feeling more confident this time around.

How the 49ers Can Win on Offense: Goodness, how do you even begin to parse out differences--and therefore competitive advantages--between these two teams?  The 49ers and Seahawks are averaging the same YPG on the ground while Seattle has a slight edge in the passing game (about 18 yards more per game than San Fran), but that's for the whole season.  That doesn't take into account the improved productivity Colin Kaepernick has had since the return of Michael Crabtree or the reintroduction of San Francisco's dangerous read option style.  The 49ers certainly won't win this one on offense alone, but they have a lot more choices than when they last went up to Seattle in September to spread that formidable defense out and trick them into some [rare] blown assignments.  Sticking to the ground game with different sets in the backfield is key to keeping the Seahawks honest and avoiding turnovers at all costs.  It may take just 3 good drives and 0 turnovers to have a shot if the Niners defense holds up its end of the bargain.

How the 49ers Can Win on Defense: Hopefully the 49ers defense will eat its Wheaties on Sunday morning.  Uncharacteristically, they let the Seahawks put up 71 points in their last two CenturyLink meetings.  Luckily for them, the Seahawks--and Russell Wilson--have looked a whole lot more vulnerable lately than they used to, even at home.  The key is pressure at the line, and perhaps counterintuitively, forcing Wilson to beat them with his arm.  With Percy Harvin unlikely to play, the 49ers can invest more in containing No. 3 and Marshawn Lynch and wearing down an offensive line that has seen better days.  Stuffing these two will surely limit the Seahawks' big play ability and frustrate a hostile but arguably insecure Seattle home crowd when every possession matters. 

How the Seahawks Can Win on Offense: Whereas the 49ers are likely to have their biggest success running the ball, the Seahawks can afford to air it out a bit more without as much risk.  San Francisco will want to force the issue at the line of scrimmage, so the more Russell Wilson can get the ball out of his hands quickly, the less of a chance the Niners will have to send pressure effectively.  They let a few big passing plays get behind them in Carolina last week, and Wilson has as good of an arm as Cam Newton with a better head on his shoulders to boot, so expect him to dial up some bombs to keep the home crowd rocking.  Marshawn Lynch will still be a factor, of course, but he was held to less than 100 yards both times against the 49ers earlier this season, meaning he may be more situational in game management scenarios on Sunday.

How the Seahawks Can Win on Defense: Both of Seattle's recent routs on San Francisco were predicated on turnovers.  In fact, they forced most of the 7 turnovers over the course of those two games early on so that the 49ers--and Colin Kaepernick in particular--never got into a rhythm.  With that kind of homefield advantage, I could definitely see this historically fantastic unit take some risks in stripping the ball and/or jumping routes to create that same kind of momentum on Sunday.  But considering the way the Seahawks kept the usually-potent Saints' offense in check last weekend without many turnovers, their best bet is to keep the pressure on San Francisco's line to force short passes/screens and inefficient rushing.  This unit is peerless when it comes to taking away yards after contact and yards after catch.  Limiting the space and time Kaepernick has to work in will force San Francisco into tough third downs where he'll have to throw the ball against the league's best secondary.

Prediction: In full disclosure, I'll be rooting for the Seahawks this time around since they've only been to the big dance once and have never won one.  But something tells me this is going to be a different kind of game with San Francisco getting healthier, less intimidated on the road and more experienced in the playoffs while the Seattle offense has floundered as of late.  49ers 20, Seahawks 17



So How's My Postseason Pickin'?
So Far: 5 - 3
Against the Spread: 6 - 1 - 1

2014 Divisional Roundup and Ranking the 4 Possible Super Bowl Matchups

Now that the conference championship stage is set, all but two playoff games to that point will have been rematches from the regular season.  We'll get two phenomenal rematches next weekend that may well upstage the big event itself in New York, but that's for another post.  Divisional weekend wasn't quite as thrilling this time around as it was a year ago, but there's still a lot to write home about from a solid weekend where most of the favorites won big:

The Best of Divisional Weekend 2014

All of the Defense - If you were hoping the old adage "Defense Wins Championships" would die soon, this weekend certainly didn't help but we saw tremendous defensive efforts in nearly every game in the divisional round.  Seattle's defense repeated its December effort against the Saints by holding them scoreless through three quarters, forcing the game's only turnover, and allowing just 3 of 12 conversions on third down.  Although the offense did too little too late, the Saints' defense deserves recognition in its own right, sacking the elusive Russell Wilson three times and keeping him to just 100 yards in the passing game.  We got the defensive slugfest between the 49ers and Panthers we expected on Sunday, but San Francisco made the bigger plays with two impressive goal line stands, two interceptions and four sacks on Cam Newton.  Outside of a couple Newton scrambles, the Niners also made Carolina's run game irrelevant and clearly took Ron Rivera out of his game plan early.  Finally, perhaps the biggest surprise on defense was Denver's Orange Crush sans Von Miller.  Like the Seahawks the day before, the Broncos held Philip Rivers' offense scoreless through three quarters.  Heck, they held the Chargers to one (!) net passing yard in the first half and to their lowest total yardage all season.  Conversely, San Diego gave itself a chance to come back in the 4th quarter by forcing two turnovers and yet again keeping high-flying Denver to just 24 points, but the Broncos' effort was simply less forgiving.

LeGarrette Blount's Ground Game Punch - There's something about all of those ex-Buccaneers in New England.  Aquib Talib did an admirable job against the explosive T.Y. Hilton, but the star of Saturday's Patriots-Colts matchup was LeGarrette Blount without question.  Now Indy's defensive line knows how Byron Hout feels.  Given the blustery weather conditions and the tempo New England was looking for against Indy, I wasn't at all surprised to see the Pats run the ball more than usual.  But I'm not sure anyone expected Blount to have this kind of career day with 4 TDs and not one but two runs of over 70 yards.  At 250 pounds, he's a tough matchup for any defensive line and the Broncos should feel less at ease about facing Blount (and Ridley and Vereen) than they did against the Chargers with a very limited Ryan Mathews.  An unfortunate side note: How much more angry must Chiefs fans feel now that they've seen how miserable the Colts were against the run late in the game this weekend?  One more piece of evidence that things would look a little different if Jamaal Charles had been able to stay healthy last week.

A Swagger Game Ric Flair Would Be Proud Of - If I’m looking at all of the “gamesmanship” between the 49ers and Panthers in between snaps Sunday objectively, I cannot assess it as anything but immature and silly. But in the No Fun League era when you can’t even spin the ball in place after a big play for fear of delaying the game (mmkay), I thoroughly enjoyed all of the trolling between these two teams all afternoon. Don’t get me wrong, it would get just as tired as trying to break stadium noise records and restricting ticket sales to your region if it happened every week, but it fit these highly aggressive squads to a tee in a playoff atmosphere. You can’t blame Carolina and San Francisco for the passion they showed in their theatrical swagger as they tried to pound each other into pink mist between whistles, but you sure can blame the poor Panthers for racking up some drive-extending penalties on defense and one of the worst flops I’ve ever seen in all of American football. At the very least made for a much more memorable game than most of the others on divisional weekend.

The Worst of Divisional Weekend 2014

Poor Marques Colston (and the Colston backlash) - Before Saturday, Marques "the quiet Beatle" Colston would mostly be remembered as the Saints' greatest receiver of all time and as an unlikely star drafted just a few spots ahead of 2006's Mr. Irrelevant in the seventh round.  But Colston became the bad kind of meme this weekend when he caught a pass near the Saints sideline with less than ten seconds to go and tried to toss a lateral across the field instead of running out of bounds. 
Was it a poorly executed play and a poor decision altogether? Definitely. But the mama bear homer in me is telling you to back off. Why? First of all, Colston’s the only reason the Saints had a chance there in the first place. He accounted for nearly half of Drew Brees’ passing yards including his only TD pass on the day AND recovered the onside kick with less than a minute to go. Second, other players cost the Saints a ton of earlier opportunities including a botched punt, a fumble, two missed field goals and two wasted timeouts in the second half to avoid delay of game. Third, even if Colston ran out of bounds, it’s a mighty big assumption that New Orleans would have successfully completed a Hail Mary TD pass from the 35 yard line and then a second 2-point conversion on the day against the league’s best defense. In other words, give the guy a break and buy him a drink if you see him around New Orleans in the offseason.

Andrew's Luck Ends - The greatest and most infuriating thing about Andrew Luck’s Colts over these past two seasons is how wildly variant they can be from game to game. They have beaten three out of the four NFL powerhouses that remain in the playoffs, but they’ve also had some really rough ones that have mostly fallen on Luck’s shoulders including Saturday’s stinker against the Patriots. After committing only 9 interceptions in his first 16 games, No. 12 nearly doubled that with 7 interceptions in his last 2 games. To be fair, he’s had to atone for a very inefficient running game and questionable offensive line this season so you can’t blame the guy for trying to keep his team in striking distance, but this time it cost him a whole lot more than it did a week ago against the Chiefs for good reason.

Riverboat Ron Folds 'Em - By now you know the narrative of the Carolina Panthers’ breakout season. Coach Ron Rivera was on the verge of a mid-season exit after starting the year 1 - 3 on a mountain of missed opportunities with his talented roster. But then, “Riverboat Ron” rose from the ashes as one of the best situational play callers in the game, willing to go for it on 4th-and-short and lead his team to victories wide and narrow. So you had the feeling that the Panthers were going to have their shot on Sunday when they faced 4th-and-1 in the first have of the game. Most unfortunately, this strength ended up being Carolina’s kryptonite in an unexpected way. They went for it the first time (which was the right call) and got stuffed. When they faced a nearly identical situation later in the half, they kicked a field goal and never attempted another 4th down conversion again in the game. You might be scratching your head since the latter decision is the only one that directly resulted in points, but you’d be forgetting a few things: 1) when the Panthers were stuffed the first time, they ended up forcing the 49ers to punt from their own end zone and gave Cam Newton perfect field position to throw a TD pass to Steve Smith; 2) probability would suggest the Panthers still had a great shot at scoring a TD or forcing a similar situation on their second 4th-and-goal; and 3) the issue was more the conservative up-the-gut play calling than the decision to go for it on 4th down itself. Anyway, I’m not complaining that Carolina lost that one, but let that be a lesson for next year for the usually calculated Riverboat Ron.

Ranking the Possible Super Bowl Matchups

And then there were four, which means the fans of the 28 other NFL teams can look forward only to the roster changes of the offseason and hope for the best possible Super Bowl matchup between the teams that remain.  From my perspective, here are the matchups we should hope for from most to least interesting:

1) Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks
Christmas continues with at least two of my four playoffs wish list matchups coming up this championship weekend. The only possibility remaining on that list is the “Feast and Famine Bowl,” should both #1 seeds make it to the Meadowlands. It would make too much sense for Peyton Manning to close out an unprecedented season at QB against one of the best passing defenses in the NFL’s modern era. Who wouldn’t want to see Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas cover the likes of Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker? Or Peyton put on his best Manning-face when the first questionable pass interference non-call surfaces? On a neutral and [perhaps] brutally cold field, all bets are off.

2) New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers
Admittedly, it’d be fascinating to see how the Broncos’ record-shattering offense fares against either potential NFC contender, but there’s no guarantee that those games wouldn’t end up lopsided one way or the other. We already know roughly how a Patriots-49ers game would go though if their meeting in Foxboro a year ago is any indicator. In case you forgot, it was a magical snowglobe of runs with San Francisco sprinting out to a 31 - 3 lead followed by 28 unanswered points from the Patriots. Bill Belichick vs. Jim Harbaugh would be an excellent coaching matchup that could soon leave us begging for the phrase “chess match” to be retired forever.

3) Denver Broncos vs. San Francisco 49ers
Per desired matchup #1 above, either NFC contender would serve as Peyton’s toughest defensive test all season long. A few different wrinkles with the 49ers compared to the Seahawks would be that they arguably have the better offense and a more intense desire to win it all after coming up just short two years in a row, similar to Peyton’s push to get one more ring. The San Francisco secondary just isn’t quite as intriguing.

4) New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks

If there’s one interesting subplot in this one, it’s that Patriots fans would love to have their revenge on Pete Carroll for his tepid slide at head coach over a decade ago. Conversely, they ended up with Bill Belichick as a result and should probably just let this one go. Also, New England’s third-string receiving corps is an awful matchup for Seattle’s secondary and this one could get out of hand quickly.

Playoff Predictions: 2014 Divisional Round

Davids, Goliaths, and doppelgangers headline this weekend of divisional playoff games.  Given the upsets and fireworks we already saw on wild card weekend, all bets are off, meaning don't take anything you're about to read below too seriously:

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-8)

The Run-Down: The Saints travel to the ninth circle of visiting team hell this Saturday to try to avenge the 7 - 34 drubbing they received a month ago, but the Seahawks will start their postseason in the best position they've ever had to take home a Lombardi.

How the Saints Can Win: On offense, settle down quickly with high-percentage rushing and passing plays and don't give the Seahawks opportunities for turnovers.  A long, sustained early drive will help calm the 12th Man and maintain the Saints' confidence on the road after a surprisingly solid wild card win.  On defense, getting to Russell Wilson consistently is key; he's completed less than 50% of his passes and thrown for 60 fewer yards on average in losses this season with the Seahawks' recent home loss to Arizona is a blueprint.

How the Seahawks Can Win: As they have all year, the Seahawks should approach this as a defense-first kind of game.  They kept the Saints to just 12 first downs last time around, forcing an early turnover and taking Drew Brees completely out of the game by the third quarter.  On offense, Russell Wilson must be licking his lips with an increasingly thinner New Orleans secondary.  Shredding them with a variety of targets throughout the game will keep them off balance and open things up for Marshawn Lynch to close things out.

Prediction: If I was able to jinx the Ravens to victory a year ago, I'll do my best with the Saints this time around.  Clearly, Seattle should have the upper hand in this game with superlative balance and homefield advantage, but my guess is that this will still be a bit closer than that rout back in December.  Seahawks 28, Saints 23

Indianapolis Colts at the New England Patriots (-7.5)

The Run-Down: The winningest quarterback in the game today hosts an up-and-coming star who refuses to lose.  Defenses need not apply.

How the Colts Can Win: Bring on the shootout. It’s no secret that the Colts have struggled in the running game this season, and the unflappable Andrew Luck showed us last week he can torch the league’s better defenses with big plays. Keeping pace with Tom Brady in this department may be Indy’s best chance for an upset since the Colts’ receivers are arguably the better of the two squads. Alternately, pass rushing great Robert Mathis needs to have a big day against Brady to give Luck enough opportunities if the Colts offense stalls. As we saw in last year’s AFC championship against the Ravens, Tom Terrific tends to lose steam when the pocket collapses.

How the Patriots Can Win: TY Hilton, meet Aquib Talib. New England’s best corner is surely a bright spot for an injury-riddled defense, and shutting down Andrew Luck’s favorite target will go lengths to limit the Colts’ big play offense. I’m positive Belichick is preaching as I type about keeping those receivers in front of his secondary so that the Patriots are in full control of the game’s tempo. To that end on offense, don’t be surprised to see New England run the ball a substantial amount along with short-range screens to control time of possession. It was just about this time last season that Shane Vereen became a guy that people know about for taking a lot of pressure off of Tom Brady against the Texans Pro Bowl-heavy defense.

Prediction: The Colts continue to defy the odds this year, which is a particularly scary thing after watching that 28-point comeback last week. But lightning doesn’t tend to strike twice against defensive masterminds like Bill Belichick, and I believe the Patriots will have Luck’s number with fewer injuries and a greater sense of caution in the 4th quarter than the Chiefs did. Patriots 30, Colts 20

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (PK)

The Run-Down: Two of the very best in ground-and-pound and the read option will have a rematch after a grueling 10 - 9 Panthers victory in San Francisco earlier this season.  And luckily for parity's sake, both of these teams present matchup problems for the NFC-best Seahawks if the Saints don't down them first.


How the 49ers Can Win: San Francisco is certainly physical enough to give the surging Panthers a run for their money on both sides of the line of scrimmage, but if there’s an area that they have a clear advantage, it’s in opening up the field on offense. When these teams last met, the Niners didn’t have Michael Crabtree at all or Vernon Davis for most of the game. This time, Colin Kaepernick can use both along with Anquan Boldin to get vertical against a suspect Panthers secondary and subdue a front seven that sacked him six times in Week 10.

How the Panthers Can Win:  Carolina’s bread and butter all season long will continue to be its biggest asset on Sunday - disruptive defense at the line of scrimmage and stingy tackling from its stable of linebackers to limit yards after contact for Kaepernick and Frank Gore. The less time the Panthers give No. 7 to get the ball out of his hands, the more likely they’ll be to pressure him into mistakes and 3rd-and-long situations like last time. On offense, Carolina will need a season-best effort from its running backs to wear down the 49ers defense and keep moving the chains (or getting into some very manageable 4th-and-short situations that Riverboat Ron loves so much).


Prediction: This one has the feel of going down to the wire, and truthfully, either team would be fun to watch against Seattle assuming my other NFC pick pans out. With more postseason experience and more diverse talent on offense, I give the 49ers a slight edge.   49ers 17, Panthers 13

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-9.5)

The Run-Down: The surprising Chargers continue to defy the odds with a trip to Denver in the divisional round.  Peyton Manning is coming off the best season in quarterback history, but Mike McCoy will try to pull off the upset with his new team, one Manning has never beaten in the playoffs in fact.

How the Chargers Can Win: If you don’t believe in Peyton Manning cold weather/playoffs myths, the Chargers’ stunning upset in Denver a month ago will be hard to replicate, but it certainly wasn’t by accident. San Diego was methodical in Week 15, running the ball over 40 times and winning time of possession by almost 20 minutes.  Wearing the Broncos' Von Miller-less defense down again is essential to keeping Manning on the bench and allowing for late scoring opportunities if the lead is within reach.  On defense, the Chargers need to keep Manning to short check-downs and bottle up the running game as they did against the Bengals last week - When No. 18 gets frustrated, he tends to get less accurate and more prone to turnovers a la last year against the Ravens.

How the Broncos Can Win: The same way Denver has all season long: come out with guns a blazin' before the San Diego secondary can settle in.  Interestingly, the Broncos are 2 - 3 this season when the margin of victory is 7 points or less, so they'll want to give Manning as many early opportunities as possible to build up an insurmountable lead.  For the defense, that means keeping the heat on Philip Rivers to go three-and-out and turn the ball over, especially in the first half.

Prediction: Maybe it's the fact that Chargers coach Mike McCoy knows Denver inside and out or that Peyton Manning has never beaten this team in the postseason, but I think we're in for a much closer contest than the spread would suggest.  The Broncos by a nose only because they should win.  Broncos 38, Chargers 36


So How's My Postseason Pickin'?
In Wins: 1 - 3
Against the Spread: 3 -1

The Best and Worst of Wild Card Weekend 2014

If inaccuracy is the price I have to pay for the Saints to upset their way to the divisional round, bring it on.  Lots of streaks were broken and revived this season, leaving me with a confounding 1 - 3 record in wins but a 3 - 1 record against the spread.  The Chiefs and Bengals continued their heartbreaking playoff win drought despite having serious odds in their favor.  The Saints won their first road playoff game in franchise history.  Colin Kaepernick remains undefeated against Green Bay. Both 6th seeds are moving on to the divisional round.  All told, it was a mighty entertaining weekend so here are some concluding thoughts:

The Best of Wild Card Weekend 2014

Luck's Luck - I can't say I was thrilled with the outcome of the Kansas City-Indianapolis game (see the Worst Of), but to give credit where credit is due, how about those Colts refusing to give up despite facing a 10 - 38 deficit in the third quarter on Saturday?  I don't know that any Colts fan would consider this Andrew Luck's best performance after three poorly thrown interceptions, but the guy must have the most valuable [lack of] short-term memory of any QB I've ever seen in the pros.  It was icing on the cake that, in addition to tossing 4 TDs, he managed to pick up Donald Brown's goal-line fumble for another 6 points on the ground.  Lucky for them, coming back from 28 points down is just the kind of thing the Colts may need to get past the likes of Tom Brady and possibly Peyton Manning.

The Bizarro Saints - Dread is probably the best word to describe what we Saints fans were feeling going into Philadelphia on Saturday night.  Not only was New Orleans coming off of a 1 - 5 road record in 2013 and 0 - 5 in the playoffs all-time, they'd have to face the Eagles without Pierre Thomas, outdoors in the freezing cold, and they started things off with two nasty Brees interceptions.  If you'd told me things would end with the Saints holding LeSean McCoy to less than 80 yards on the ground while earning over 180 rushing yards themselves and handing the high-octane Eagles one of their least productive offensive days of the year, I'd have to check your head for signs of a concussion.  But triumph they did in the least likely fashion by dominating the line of scrimmage both ways, owning time of possession by nearly 10 minutes including a critical 4-minute final drive to set up the winning field goal as time expired.  Mark Ingram (or kicker Shayne Graham) probably got the game ball, but this one is pure Sean Payton for rallying his team to overcome their mental road barriers and earn one of their most resilient postseason performances of all time.

Kaepernick's Lambeau Legs (And Arms) - The 49ers-Packers game on Sunday afternoon was the most evenly matched and back-and-forth of anything we saw this weekend, even though the sub-zero temperatures did nothing to help the Green Bay tourism bureau.   But in a harsh game of inches, the edge in San Francisco's win was Colin Kaepernick once again having his way with Green Bay's defense.  No. 7 put up over 200 yards in the air and 100 on the ground including a key third-down scamper to set up the game-winning field goal.  Looks like he was watching the Saints game last night for more than just recon.

The Worst of Wild Card Weekend 2014

The Chiefs' Cruel Fate - I'll acknowledge that I risk minimizing all the Colts had to do right to win against the Chiefs this weekend, but the outcome of the game just feels so unfair to Kansas City and Alex Smith in particular.  In fact, Smith became the first QB ever to lose an NFL game despite throwing 4 TDs and no interceptions while the defense earned a +3 turnover differential in one of the most heartbreaking outcomes I've ever seen.  There's no doubt in my mind the Chiefs would be traveling to Foxboro next week if Jamaal Charles had been in the game, since his ability to sustain drives and run down the clock would have been huge in limiting Andrew Luck's possessions in the second half.  Instead, because Football Jesus clearly hates Kansas City, the Chiefs lost three Pro Bowlers and were down to their third-string running back before the final whistle blew.  In the grand scheme of things, it's just as well that the Colts are moving on since the Chiefs aren't healthy enough to win another game anyway, but what a punishing, undeserved way to end a marvelous season.

Andy Dalton, the Red Rifle Ridicule - With upsets, down-to-the-wire plays, and wild comebacks, these playoffs are certainly living up to expectations so far in 2014.  The only exception this weekend was a real stinker between the Bengals and Chargers due almost entirely to Andy Dalton.  This "Red Rifle" is the most infuriating kind of enigma.  One minute, he's shredding secondaries down the seam with A.J. Green and earning QB ratings in the 90s.  The next, he's the most ineffectual/least accurate passer I've seen beyond five yards of the line of scrimmage.  Sunday, Playoffs Andy reared his ugly head again with three awful turnovers and a QBR that barely cleared single digits.  In fact, in three consecutive postseason appearances--a feat for any young QB mind you--he has just 1 TD and 5 INTs to his name and was largely responsible for wasting yet another opportunity for Cincinnati to get out of a very long playoff win drought.  Despite the Bengals defense keeping San Diego to under 200 yards, and Dalton alone racking up 360 of his own, he continued to make ill-timed passes and bone-headed decisions that led to punts when his team was lucky.  On a related and equally unfortunate note, what was with Jay Gruden's play-calling yet again?  With Dalton throwing wounded ducks and the Bengals averaging nearly 5 yards per carry after beating the Chargers on the ground a month ago, he continued to dial up drive-killing passing plays just like he did this time last year in Houston.  Good riddance, I guess.

Playoff Predictions: 2014 Wild Card Round

It's a studs and duds kind of playoff weekend for the 2014 wild card round, especially in the AFC.  No matter, this is the kind of schedule that upsets are made of, which makes me nervous about what I'm about to throw darts at here below.  But because you asked, here are my wild card round playoff predictions:

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)

The Run-Down: Waaaay back in Week 16, these two teams faced off in what ended up being a lopsided Colts rout.  Now they'll will switch locations to fight for the privilege of losing to Peyton Manning at Mile High next week.  But in the meantime, they can continue to bask in the Cinderella glory of their rapid improvements from 2-win to 11-win teams.

How the Chiefs Can Win: As the Chiefs did fairly well last time, they'll need to keep the pass rush on Andrew Luck from start to finish and force the Colts to run with the tepid likes of Trent Richardson.  What the Chiefs didn't do so well last time was take care of the ball with four turnovers and five sacks on Alex Smith.  I'm guessing the sense of urgency will be a bit different in this much more meaningful game without all the snow, so expect Kansas City to stick to running the ball first to try to win the time of possession game.

How the Colts Can Win: Come out swinging on offense.  Like many ground-and-pound playoff hopefuls this season, the Chiefs (and Alex Smith) aren't built to come from behind, so if the Colts can maintain a two-possession lead or more through the third quarter, they'll have a foot on the Chiefs' neck.  Recreating that disruptive defensive front of Week 16 wouldn't hurt either.

Prediction: This one has the makings of a fist fight that really could go either way.  It'll come down to who makes fewer mistakes since neither team is particularly strong in terms of yardage on offense or defense, passing or rushing, and the Chiefs in particular thrive on creating turnovers.  On hunches that the Colts haven't had a quality win in months and that Chiefs will look much more alive this time and punish Andrew Luck into a costly turnover or two, I'm taking Kansas City.  Chiefs 21, Colts 17

New Orleans Saints at the Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

The Run-Down: Just a couple of teams that like them some offense, the Saturday night Saints-Eagles matchup cannot be characterized as anything but a shootout, unless of course you factor in how New Orleans tends to play on the road.  But it may well come down to who gets the ball last.

How the Saints Can Win: New Orleans needs to shake off those visitor jitters quick and score early and often. They've been at their best when they've forced opponents to play catchup and capitalize on mistakes in the process.  Keeping the pocket clean for Drew Brees will be important against the 32nd worst passing defense in the NFL.

How the Eagles Can Win: Per the above, the earlier the Eagles can force the Saints into a turnover and/or multiple three-and-outs, the more they'll be inside of Drew Brees' head and bring those road skeletons out to play.  Philadelphia also has a favorable matchup in the rushing game with league-best LeSean McCoy.  Keeping Shady moving and the Saints' offense of the field in the cold environs of Philly would put the Eagles in pole position for this one.

Prediction: It's time to put hope aside and prepare for the inevitable.  The Saints will have to put forth a better game against the Eagles than they have all season on the road, and even then, Philly's rushing attack poses big problems for New Orleans.  When the temperature dips below freezing, count on Chip Kelly's offense to have a field day.  Eagles 38, Saints 31

 San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)

The Run-Down: A high-flying offense will collide with a stalwart defense all while the Bengals try to end a playoff win drought that has gone on since I was in diapers.  It may not be the matchup of the century, but it'll be a clash of opposing styles for two very hungry underdog teams.


How the Chargers Can Win: Philip Rivers needs to be quick and efficient in the passing game to diffuse a mean and nasty Bengals defensive front.  Keeping them on the field as long as possible could ultimately open things up for Ryan Mathews and an improved Chargers running game.  On the other side of the ball, San Diego should make every effort to stuff the run.  Andy Dalton's long game is questionable at best, so creating tough third downs could give the Chargers more possessions to tangle with Vontaze Burfict and friends.

How the Bengals Can Win:  When these teams met in Week 13, Cincinnati won this one with the kind of stingy, opportunistic defense that has been their bread and butter all season.  They forced three turnovers and kept the usually prolific Chargers to just 10 points, which would practically guarantee another win on Sunday.  If the Bengals can shut down any chance for big plays and stay balanced with the running game, they will be able to outmuscle the Chargers again.

Prediction: As wild as the Chargers' unlikely playoff berth has been, they almost (and arguably should have) lost to Kansas City's second string a week ago.  That spells trouble against a Bengals team that has never been more balanced and also happens to be undefeated at home this season.  Bengals 24, Chargers 21

San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Green Bay Packers

The Run-Down: This renewed rivalry rounds its second year in the care of Jim Harbaugh and Mike McCarthy.  The Niners have had the upper hand for the past three contests, but the Packers have suddenly gotten a lot scarier with the return of Aaron Rodgers and a solid rushing game for a change.

How the 49ers Can Win: Run the ball and then run it some more.  The Packers are facing an uphill battle with Clay Matthews out and a defense that has struggled at times this season, and the 49ers can take advantage with their physical style of offense in cold Lambeau all while keeping Aaron Rodgers off the field as much as possible.  Keeping the pressure on Rodgers might have him seeing ghosts of broken collar bones past, so expect those four defensive pro bowlers and their friends to bring the heat.

How the Packers Can Win: First, forget that 2013 ever existed.  The Packers have quite the monkey on their back after getting run over at Candlestick in last year's divisional round and then again in the September season opener.  They'll need a lights out performance on defense to stop the 49ers on the ground and contain Colin Kaepernick.  Otherwise, Green Bay's fate rests on the shoulders of Aaron Rodgers to stretch the field at home, which isn't the worst thing.

Prediction: Rodgers proved last week that he's ready to play, which gives the Packers more hope than they had two weeks ago.  Nevertheless, there just seem to be too many holes elsewhere on the roster to match San Francisco, which is peaking at just the right time.  49ers 33, Packers 24

The 2013 Lady Blitz Season Awards and Ranking Black Monday Coaching Moves

Well, it wasn't rocket science exactly but I came away with a 13 - 3 record in the picks in Week 17 to close out the regular season at 162 - 93 - 1, a 64% hit rate.  The tides have turned in a big way this season with five newcomers (Chiefs, Chargers, Panthers, Eagles Saints) to the 2014 playoffs and surprisingly big slumps by four teams from last year's playoffs (Texans, Falcons, Redskins, Vikings).  With all that in mind, it's time to hand out the end-of-season Lady Blitz hardware (or is it software?) and sort through the sick Black Monday tradition of coach firings.

The Lady Blitz 2013 Season Awards

My Best Preseason Prediction - With so many breakouts in the league this year (yay, NFL parity!) I wasn't quite as crisp in my preseason predictions this time as I was a year ago.  Still, I picked 21 teams' win-loss records within 2 wins (66%), 14 within 1 win (44%) and 4 teams right on the nose (Bears, Cowboys, Ravens, 49ers).  I also predicted 8 of the 12 playoff teams including the surprisingly resurgent Kansas City Chiefs, whom I'm giving myself a pat on the back for here:

• "I'll be rooting for the Chiefs to make the leap this year and at least get into a good wild card race with teams like Miami and Indy.  Even though it's a bit of a stretch, if KC can buy into the new regime and cut down on turnovers with the more conservative Alex Smith, the Chiefs have a real shot at 9 - 7 and possibly better."

My Worst Preseason Prediction - There were five teams that I really shanked it on this year by five or more wins/losses.  Like more than a few know-nothings, I completely overestimated the Falcons, Texans and Redskins and underestimated the Panthers and Jets.  (P.S., Kudos to the Jets front office for sticking to their guns with Rex Ryan - he's been doing something with nothing ever since Mark Sanchez's hair labyrinth came to town in 2009).  Of all of these, I feel like I should have paid more attention to the warning signs in Washington.  They had lots of unlikely success in 2012 that ended on a sour note with Robert Griffin's injury and rifts with the Shanahans:

• "I'm still pretty thunderstruck with how pro-ready Robert Griffin was last year, and he's got a very well-rounded supporting cast on both sides of the ball to have a relatively successful year.  I can see Washington getting to 10 - 6 this year if they get a few lucky bounces along the way."

Best Surprises of the Season - They aren't exactly my rivalrous (new word!) cup of tea, but how about those Panthers for refusing to repeat history after a 1 - 3 start and creating a highly successful ground and pound lifestyle under "Riverboat" Ron Rivera?  The NFC will be stacked for the playoffs, but don't count out the #2 seed Panthers just yet after their 11 - 1 run to end the season.  Also, how great was the Chargers' chip-in-a-chair run for the final AFC playoffs spot?  They've already beaten the Broncos in Denver and had to have about a million things go right to get here, so maybe they'll be this year's Cinderella story a la the Ravens, Giants and Packers in recent years.  Finally, give honorable mentions to Bruce Arians' Cardinals, who should be in the playoffs even with Carson Palmer, and Rob Ryan's defensive turnaround for the Saints despite a litany of injuries to start the season.  Good stuff all around!

Worst Collapses of the Season - For once, I actually feel bad for the Cowboys for getting so close to the playoffs and falling short yet again with major injuries and--but of course--a gut-wrenching interception at the end of the fourth quarter.  But it's understandable, especially without Tony Romo to "blame."  Much less excusable was the Lions' 1 - 6 slide after looking like a sure bet on Thanksgiving.  With the Bears and Packers reeling at QB, all they had to do was win two games with the likes of Matt Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and a solid defensive front with very manageable dome games against the Ravens, Giants and Vikings.  Instead, they continue to bring soul-crushing disappointment to the city of Detroit.  But perhaps the biggest disappointment this year had to be the Falcons.  If my suspect memory serves me, there has been only one other instance in the NFL where a former #1 seed fell to 4 wins or fewer the subsequent season.  Yes, Atlanta had tough injuries to surmount this year, but they were also more mistake-prone and less consistent on both sides of the ball that have been so uncharacteristic in previous years for Mike Smith and Matt Ryan.  Sunday's bobbled snap with less than a minute to go was all too appropriate for the Falcons' miserable season - poor Tony Gonzalez deserved better than this... Not that I'm complaining.

Non-Peyton Manning Hero Award - Have you picked up your jaw yet after watching Aaron Rodgers' stunning 4th and 8 TD pass to sneak past the Bears to clinch the NFC North in his first game since October?  Me neither.  Green Bay will have to do a lot--and without Clay Matthews--to make a run in January, but this team is suddenly very dangerous.  Still, if I'm being fair to those who played the whole 2013 season, defensive juggernaut Luke Kuechley would deserve my vote as Peyton's runner-up to MVP this year.  It's like he has some multiplier Mortal Kombat superpower that allows him to cover both sidelines and give opponents no chance to run the ball or do more than dink or dunk in the passing game.  Just try to count how many yards this guy runs in a drive and wonder how many carbs he's loading every Sunday.

My New Superbowl Prediction - The Broncos and Seahawks seemed like locks well into November in most fans' minds, but this postseason already has the feel of an upset spectacular to me.  I still think the Seahawks will ride that homefield advantage all the way to the Meadowlands, but somebody is going to upset Peyton's Broncos like they always do.  I like the Patriots making their sixth run in the Brady/Belichick era with Von Miller out and the ghosts of collapse circling Manning's dreams.  And I like the Seahawks winning it all in a snowy ground-and-pound magnum opus.

Ranking the Black Monday Coaching Moves

I'm not a big fan of the "Black Monday" tradition.  Who would be in a league that is so fickle with coaching staff despite all of the variables in player health, front office moves and scheduling in a wildly short 16-game season?  Sometimes they pay dividends as with Andy Reid moving to the Chiefs this year, but so often they seem to end in the eternal revolving doors of the Browns, Raiders and Bills.  Anyway, if we have to ogle at people losing their livelihoods and signaling that a franchise office has given up, here's my rankings from best to worst:

1) Jim Schwartz, Major Opportunity Cost - I'm probably beating a dead horse here, but the Lions are doing some serious favors by moving on from Coach Schwartz.  They gave the guy five years and a heckuva roster to step up in the ever-competitive NFC North.  Other than one wild card playoff run in 2011, Detroit has been the same as it ever was, losing too many close games, going heavy on turnovers and penalties, and showing a general lack of discipline on and off the field.  But the good news for the Lions is that this is a young team with a lot of talent, and for that reason, this vacancy should get more interest than just about any other job out there.  Moving Schwartz was the right move, and Detroit likely has the best chances of landing a better replacement.

2) Mike Shanahan, Washington Exile - I will say, after reading Slow Getting Up by Nate Jackson, I have a lot more respect for Shanny than I would otherwise.  He walked into a pretty volatile situation in Washington to begin with, and last year's breakout success may have been the thing that did him in before this season ever started.  The Redskins faithful got a taste of success with one of the most flawless rookie QB/RB performances in the history of the league that obviously did not repeat itself in 2013.  More obviously and importantly, however, Coach Shanahan will forever be tied to Robert Griffin's fateful wild card knee injury and the subsequent fallout with player(s) and fans alike that proved beyond repair.  To quote a brilliant analogy, he was the scapegoat of a Washington franchise that is the rich kid nobody really liked in high school: "Everyone wanted to hang out with him again, right up until the point where he wrapped the Camaro around a telephone pole, at which point everyone felt justified in just writing him off as a complete **** for good.  The Redskins are that kid and Robert Griffin III is our Camaro."

3) Greg Schiano, Disapproving Helicopter Dad - I'm kind of surprised to put Schiano this low on the list, but if nothing else, he had less time to mold his "Schiano men" than the two unemployed schlocks above.  Nevertheless, the guy wasted no time earning the reputation of a toes-on-the-line, micromanaging disciplinarian who happened to lose a lot of games and goodwill in the locker room.  If building a winning culture was his aim, he pretty much sprinted in the opposite direction with a very public falling out with Josh Freeman and a mountain of disapproving quotes from other anonymous players.  Throw in a MRSA outbreak in the locker room and you've got yourself one of the cruelest metaphors for Schiano's reign of terror in Tampa.

4) Rob Chudzinski, Unproven Tragic Hero - After just a year in Cleveland, Rob Chudzinski has proven one of the most drastic Black Monday sacrifices in media coverage for a reason.  He walked into a pretty miserable roster situation managed by a front office that won't be winning any business ethics awards this decade.  What's more, the Browns had already signaled they were going to take the long view by trading Trent Richardson less than a month into the season, and then of course, were immediately down to third string QB Jason Campbell. Hopefully Chudzinski will be given another chance at least as a coordinator somewhere, because the Browns' front office is clearly still throwing darts as a modus operandi.  #FancyWerds

5) Leslie Frazier, Right Place/Wrong Time - Somewhat similar to Mike Shanahan's situation above, the Vikings' Leslie Frazier may have fallen victim to impossible expectations after taking his team to the playoffs in an unlikely fashion a year ago.  Of course, he was never given a huge vote of confidence, rising through the ranks as an interim coach when Brad Childress was fired.  But don't tell me Frazier wouldn't have done just as well if he had Brett Favre under center instead of Christian Ponder.  Heck, in my opinion, Frazier has done as could be expected and much more with the roster he inherited inside a highly competitive division.  Sure, this season was disappointing in terms of losses, but the fact that Minnesota stayed competitive through Week 17 and that even third string RB Matt Asiata could muster 100+ yard games in Coach Frazier's care speaks volumes to me about what he could have done with another roster hole or two filled.