The Best and Worst of the NFL in 2014

I thought about doing the standard weekly recap since this will be my last post of the year and NFL regular season, but it wasn't exactly a popcorn-packed slate of games last weekend.  There were no meaningful upsets, and most of the teams we'd thought would win did so in predictable fashion.  Strange things happen in January, but who could possibly pick against a Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl at this point?  Anyway, let's use New Year's as a trusty old thematic platform to reflect on the season to date and hash out the stuff we might still remember by this time next year about 2014:

The Worst of the NFL This Season

What can I say?  I'm a bad-news-first kind of woman.  Here are the five things that put snakes in my stomach this NFL season:

Peyton's Sunset - I've said it way too many times on this blog, usually to catastrophic jinxing effect, but it's really starting to look like Peyton Manning is nearing the end of his professional career.  It feels almost like nit-picking to bring this up since the guy put up 4,700 yards and 39 TDs this season, but Manning has looked decidedly un-Manning-like for the last month or so.  In December, he threw 3 TDs to 6 INTs with many a wounded duck and errant/sailing goose along the way.  It's hard to see Denver getting back to the big dance in February without Manning performing at an immortal level.  To play devil's advocate, he hasn't gotten much help from his banged up receivers while the Broncos have successfully transitioned to more of a ground-and-pound look that could serve them well in the playoffs.  But assuming No. 18 is also dealing with some nagging injuries that will just get harder to recoup from as he gets older, we might be a month to a year away from his retirement.   Whenever that happens, I'll miss his surgery against many a secondary, but I won't miss those Papa John's commercials one bit.

The San Francisco Axe - On a purely self-interested level, I am thrilled my team no longer has to deal with Jim Harbaugh's black magic in the NFC or the NFL at large. But I'm still totally stunned that the 49ers front office forced him out after he turned a miserable 3 - 13 team into a consistent winner instantaneously.  The only thing that would make sense to me is if Harbaugh exerted a lot more leverage than San Francisco's front office could reasonably contend with.  After all, when you've been to three straight NFC Championships and a Super Bowl, you can ask for just about anything or threaten to walk to the 50 or so pro and college teams that would welcome you with a parade and a mountain of cash.  Sound familiar, Michigan fans?  But Harbaugh's exit has been telegraphed since almost a year ago when the 49ers allegedly tried to trade him to Cleveland and let it leak.  The front office has cited "philosophical differences" as the reason for his departure, but when your coach has had one of the winningest early careers in NFL history, I'm guessing Harbaugh's philosophy is a whole lot sounder than theirs, even if it's bat#@&* crazy.  So now the eccentric khaki fiend will return to his alma mater and give San Francisco zero collateral to recover after their biggest loss since Steve Young retired.  Welcome to the world of domineering, short-sided ownership, 49ers fans - I'm sure there are support groups in Dallas and DC that can hook you up.

The Desolate Pit of the NFC South - Oh sure, we'll all moan now about the sub-0.500 Panthers limping their way into the playoffs, but are you really going to pick the Cardinals this weekend instead?  Regardless, what an awful year for this division that I absolutely did not see coming.  Obviously the big dagger for me was just how poorly the Saints played this year, coughing up late leads, regressing significantly on defense, and dropping an unheard-of 5 straight games at home.  It's hard to imagine them rebounding much at this point in the Sean Payton/Drew Brees era with players aging and salary caps looming, and we may be a year or two away from some major shakeups in New Orleans a la Atlanta.  Speaking of the Falcons, they were hit hard with the injury bug on both sides of the line of scrimmage, but we also saw Matt Ryan take big steps back at times and some of the worst coaching decisions in the league this season. Mike Smith cost this team two wins against Detroit and Cleveland with terrible clock management and that cost the Falcons a playoff spot and Smith his job.  Then of course there's the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who now have the #1 overall pick in 2015 and, ironically, probably came out best from this divisional garbage fire.  Anyway, it was an ugly, miserable season of ineptitude to watch, and I should know.

The Broken, Reactionary Shield - Serious issues call for over-serious metaphors that Roger Goodell clings to. I wrote a bit earlier this year about the NFL's mishandling of high-profile domestic violence and sexual assault cases involving its players.  Since that time, the league has taken some small [very ownership-friendly!] steps towards developing more consistent policies for player discipline and partnering with survivor support organizations. In a very utilitarian sense, it's better than nothing and brought much-needed attention to these issues.  But I just cannot parse words in saying that I am embarrassed by the lack of integrity that Roger Goodell and many a league office exhibited leading up to this point, sweeping cases like Ray Rice's under the rug until public outrage and humiliation finally forced their hands. Between this and the league's long-standing denial of player health issues like CTE, I can no longer fool myself into thinking I do not implicitly support a very unethical organization when I watch games, play fantasy football or blog here.  If I have a sliver of hope that some things will get better, it's because public accountability [or the associated ad revenue lost] can force change, but if it takes drastic singular events with clear video evidence every time, don't expect much else to change.

The Best of the NFL This Season

No amount of heroics on the field can atone for the much darker side of the NFL this season [and many unchecked seasons prior], but here's a few bright spots that I enjoyed during a turbulent time within and outside of the world of football:

The Bills and Cardinals Being Better Than You Thought - Most of the old standbys like the Pats, Broncos, Packers and Seahawks did just fine this season, but there were also some delightful surprises from several teams that have been miserable for years and/or expected to crash and burn this year.  Although they needed a meaningless Week 17 game to do it, the Bills finally got their first winning season in a decade despite losing Kiko Alonso and Jarius Byrd before the season started and having to trust in E.J. Manuel/Kyle Orton at quarterback.  Orton had a solid performance to carry the offense, but Buffalo owes its winning ways to an outstanding defense that led the league in sacks and ranked in the top five for points and yards allowed.  Heck, you have the Bills to thank if Aaron Rodgers doesn't get the MVP - he was a given until Buffalo held him to less than 200 yards, no TDs and 2 INTs.  It's a shame these guys didn't make the playoffs, but if they can figure out a couple more things on offense, who knows what they might do next year.  I won't spend as much time on the Cardinals here since we'll get to see them again this weekend, but they've been a lesson in resilience all year long with a litany of injuries and tough opponents.  They've gone 11 - 5 and nearly locked up a very competitive division, but they'll probably still be underdogs in Carolina this weekend, and I'm guessing that's how Bruce Arians likes it.

Odell Beckham, Poetry in Motion - What can I say about rookie phenom Odell Beckham Jr. that hasn't already been said elsewhere in recent weeks?  He averaged the most yards-per-game of any wide receiver this season and ranked in the top 10 for yards and TDs despite missing the first four games of the season.  This past draft was loaded with receiving talent including Mike Evans, Sammy Watkins, Kelvin Benjamin and Brandin Cooks, but OBJ snatched the spotlight with the catch seen 'round the world and never gave us a reason to turn away.  Not only is he massively productive--and perhaps single-handedly saving Eli Manning's career--he has an extraordinary level of athletic talent that we haven't seen since Randy Moss or maybe ever.  There's no doubt a new star has been born and he's a lock for Rookie of the Year.

Cowboys From the Ashes - Those preseason rumors of the Dallas Cowboys' death were greatly exaggerated by all accounts including mine and how.  With DeMarcus Ware leaving in free agency and Sean Lee on IR until next year, with Tony Romo coming off of major back surgery, and with the Cowboys facing an uphill battle of a schedule with the NFC West, few predicted that Dallas would end up with one of the most impressive seasons since the days of Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin.  In fact, the new three-headed monster of Tony Romo, DeMarco Murray and Dez Bryant has already started rewriting the franchise record books with a lot of credit due to one of the best offensive lines we've seen in a long time.  The Cowboys went 12 - 4, won the NFC East for the first time since 2009, and were undefeated on the road including a spectacular outing in Seattle.  After so many years of near-misses and agonizing collapses, this has been a year where everything has gone right for Dallas from Romo's career season to Murray's breakout performance to an underrated rebound on defense under Rod Marinelli.  If there's one team that has a shot at upsetting the Seahawks in January, it's got to be the Cowboys and for once, I might just root for them.

J.J. Watt, Our Spiritual MVP - I may be wrong and J.J. Watt may have a real shot at MVP honors this season, but with the Texans missing the playoffs and voters having significant biases toward quarterbacks and offensive players in general, it's a loooong shot. Since I'm not part of the Skull and Bones society that gets to vote [insipidly] on these things, I'm dedicating this corner to the hardest working defensive lineman in the league and the real MVP this season.  Mr. Watt's resume for your consideration: 1) recorded at least one sack or turnover in 15 out of 16 games this season; 2) had 20+ sacks for the second time in his career (an NFL first) including a safety; 3) led the NFL in QB hits and pressures; 4) had seven turnovers including a blocked field goal, an interception and five forced fumbles; 5) scored five TDs, two of those on defense.  If this guy can't earn an MVP after a season like that--truly unlike any other performance for any position in the NFL--then they really should just rename the thing "Most Valuable Quarterback."

JLotz's Self-Aggrandizing Corner

I put this section last because you probably won't care, and that is perfectly fine - go buy illegal fireworks and black eyed peas or something!  But outside of the Saints' 2014 Misery Tour, I had a pretty good season of blogging and other football extracurriculars.  In terms of the weekly picks, I closed out the season at a respectable 175-80-1 and my best hit rate since starting this blog (68%).  That's as good or better than all but three guys at ESPN and all but one guy at CBS.  My preseason win-loss predictions were a bit more hit-and-miss.  I got a personal-best seven teams' win totals exactly right (Panthers, Packers, Rams, Raiders, Steelers, Patriots, Dolphins), 44% of teams within one win and 72% of teams within two wins.  But I whiffed by 3 or more wins with nine teams, mostly because of the confounding NFC South and NFC North.

In other self-referential news, my silly fantasy football team (Bakery Special) won the league championship this past weekend!  It wasn't a pretty game given that my opponent and I started Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan, respectively, but I closed out the season on a 6-game win streak to go 12-5 on the year and get great satisfaction out of a very arbitrary pastime that usually makes me grind my teeth for days when I bench the wrong guy.  Here's to you, my championship starters:

• Matt Ryan (QB)
• Alfred Morris (RB), Jeremy Hill (RB)
• Odell Beckham (WR), Mike Evans (WR), Alshon Jeffery (WR)
• Martellus Bennett (TE)
• Justin Tucker (K)
• Texans D/ST - Or really, just J.J. Watt

Benched But Not Forgotten:

• Ben Roethlisberger (QB)
• Isaiah Crowell (RB), Chris Ivory (RB), Matt Asiata (RB)
• Mike Wallace (WR)
• Scott Chandler (TE), Kyle Rudolph (TE)
• Eagles D/ST - Or really, just Darren Sproles sometimes

Week 17 Picks for Every NFL Game

Blogger's Note: Since my last post, Lady Blitz Football reached 10,000 hits on the interwebs, and some of that probably wasn't spam - thanks for your readership!  Bitcoin shots for everyone!

Hard to believe, but it's the final week of the regular season.  The only playoff teams yet to be decided are the NFC South division "winner" and the final wild card spot in the AFC, but there's still some shuffling of the seeding deck to be done.  With that in mind, I've separated the games a bit differently today into games that matter at all for January versus games that you really shouldn't bother with unless you're a masochist or snowed in. Anyway, here's what I think:

Games That Matter: Ranked by Entertainment Value and Playoff Significance

1) Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-7.5) - It’s no sudden death situation like the Falcons-Panthers game below, but I cannot in good conscience tell you that the winner-take-all limp-fest in the NFC South will be remotely as good as this game, which will decide the winner of the NFC North. You may have seen some charming Tweets this week that there are players on Detroit’s roster who weren’t even born yet the last time the Lions won at Lambeau Field. With Green Bay virtually unbeatable at home and Detroit due for some bad karma after center Dominic Raiola’s continually bad decisions after the whistle, I’ll take the Pack anytime. Still, it’d be a treat to see the Lions’ superb defense frustrate Aaron Rodgers just a little bit.

2) Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-4) - Breaking Bad spoiler alert: Whoever wins this putrid division and hosts a wild card game will be the Jesse Pinkman of the NFL playoffs. Sure, you escaped alive against all odds, but you’ve been brutalized within an inch of your life throughout the year, and you’ll be in a lot of people’s crosshairs for your misdeeds no matter what happens next. The winner here is assured a sub-0.500 record and will host a team in the first round that will have at least four more wins. Seven other teams--over 20% of the league--will definitely have a better record than the Panthers or Falcons this year but haven’t locked up a playoff spot going into Week 17. Anyway, since I have to pick a champion of mediocrity, I like the Falcons at home - Matt Ryan has been killing it over the past four weeks with a +100 passer rating in every game and 9 TDs to 3 INTs.

3) San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) - Here’s a big domino for the AFC wild card between two pretty evenly matched division rivals. If the Chargers win, they’re in. If the Chiefs win and both Baltimore and Houston lose, they’re in.  I have to wonder how the Chargers will manage with so many injuries, especially on defense.  They aren't great against the run, and that's quite obviously the Chiefs' bread and butter. But after much wavering, I just can't pick against San Diego in December, especially after their Team of Destiny comeback against the 49ers last week.  Somehow, Philip Rivers will find a way.

4) Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) - This game’s just a bit less interesting now that both teams have secured at least a wild card berth, but it should be an excellent matchup nonetheless that we might end up seeing in January too. Cincy’s coming off one of its most impressive wins of the season after making Peyton Manning look foolish in Week 16.  Although the Bengals definitely have a shot again this week if that defense and Jeremy Hill continue to come up big, I still like the Big Ben/Le'Veon Bell combo better.

5) Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-10) - So the best the Browns can hope for this week is for Brian Hoyer to hold things down with a gimpy shoulder after Rex Grossman--yes, even Rex Grossman--turned them down for a starting job. That means Baltimore can load the box on defense and take its time getting points on offense instead of recreating the disaster that was Joe Flacco in Houston last week. All that plus a Chiefs win at Arrowhead would mean wild card paydirt for the Ravens.

6) Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-6) - If Jim Harbaugh really wants to get the last laugh against the Seahawks and his own front office, I could see him sabotaging this final game so that the Cardinals still have a shot at the division title.  But I think there are also enough players on the roster who want to send him off in style, and they'll get to have some fun with the Cardinals' raw rookie QB Logan Thomas in the process. 

7) St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-12.5) - So the Rams' magical run of crashing other people's parties seems to be at an end in 2014.  If somehow they pull off the upset this week in one of the hardest stadiums to do so, they will have given the Cardinals above (and just about every other NFC contender) a real leg up in January.  I just don't see it happening, but that means we potentially have a Cowboys-Seahawks rematch in the Hawks' Nest to look forward to in a few weeks.

8) Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-14.5) - Since you asked, I’ll be playing for my Fantasy Football championship this weekend against an opponent who has Peyton Manning. You may think that’s a sigh of relief based on recent weeks for the Broncos, but I am downright terrified he’ll go AWOL on the Raiders in order to get that confidence back up and secure a first-round bye for Denver. Unless there’s a blizzard at Mile High on Sunday, I see No. 18 ending the regular season on a dangerously high note.

9) Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-9.5) - I may end up getting bitten by the jinx monster for putting Houston’s last gasp at a wild card spot here, but they’re pretty low on the totem pole of tie-breakers in the AFC and they’re playing the Jaguars, which makes for very low entertainment value. Case Keenum’s a question mark for this offense, but something tells me J.J. Watt isn’t done with his MVP campaign yet and will do more than enough for the Texans to win.

Games That Don’t Matter: Watch Them if You Must, But Mark Your Calendars for Draft Day

Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) at Washington Redskinks - Although there's technically still a chance for Dallas to get a first-round bye, it would require both Green Bay and Seattle to lose on Sunday. Who knows what the Cowboys will do since they don't seem keen on resting DeMarco Murray for much of anything, but if they do, Tony Romo is playing lights out and more than capable of carrying Dallas past the Redskinks if need be.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-5) - Here’s Exhibit A for why you should never do football picks in Week 17. With the Broncos’ loss on Monday night, the Patriots have nothing to play for now that they’ve locked up the #1 seed. The Bills, on the other hand, are staring their first winning record in a decade right in the face if they can win this meaningless one.  I think Buffalo's mean pass rush will take a moral victory lap around Jimmy Garoppolo in the second half.

Indianapolis Colts (-7) at Tennessee Titans - Technically there’s some kind of Rube Goldberg scenario where the Colts can still shake up the seeding the AFC, but it’s not worth getting into here. Similar to the Bills/Pats above, Indy doesn’t have anything significant to play for at this point so Chuck Pagano may do well to rest his starters and regroup after an ugly drubbing in Dallas last weekend. But judging by how the Titans have played this year and their draft incentives to suck more than everyone else, they could still lose to the Colts’ second string.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-5.5) - I'm guessing Sun Life Stadium is going to be even a little more dead than usual in this godawful matchup.  With Ryan Tannehill nearing a contract year though, I guess the Dolphins should still have a little more pep in their step than soon-to-be-oustered Rex Ryan's team.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-7) - So it appears Jay Cutler will have the final word in Chicago after all this season.  That makes this game a little more intriguing from an armchair psychologist standpoint - will he play hero ball to get more out of his rumored upcoming trade or will he stick it to a coaching staff and front office that put him in the doghouse last week?  I'm not sure what to think, but I certainly like Minnesota's defense and likelihood of "playing for pride" a lot more than Chicago's this week.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-2.5) - I do want to pick the Giants this week - they've been on a hot streak in December and will surely do whatever it takes to get Odell Beckham that Rookie of the Year hardware during an otherwise lost season.  But New York hasn't beaten anyone of significance during their three-game win streak and the Eagles present some bad matchup problems, so I'm closing my eyes and pointing at Philly.

New Orleans Saints (-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Tanking would be such a good thing for the Saints this week. Not only would they avoid catastrophic injuries for their dwindling top talent/most expensive starters, they would take the Buccaneers out of pole position to draft Marcus Mariota in the spring. Who says cynicism is dead? Or am I confusing that with chivalry? Anyway, the Bucs will tank better regardless and the Saints will continue their streak of meaningless road wins.


So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 11 - 5
Season Record: 162 - 79 - 1 

Week 16 Picks for Every NFL Game

Here it is - our penultimate week of regular season football.  Admittedly, it's not quite as riveting on the surface as you'd think, and if you're really dedicated, there are two games on Saturday because Roger Goodell is thirsty for ad revenue.  Anyway, here's what will happen, maybe:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys (-3) - It’s another big test for Dallas and another headlining Lady Blitz Game of the Week. I’m far from a homer for these guys, but they’ve done a masterful job with the late season schedule. Jerry Jones really needs some attention, you guys. Anyway, Andrew Luck is having one of the most productive seasons in the league while Tony Romo is having one of the most efficient ones. They’ll both need big days on Sunday - more so for Andrew Luck if DeMarco Murray winds up playing, more so for Romo if he does not.   I think the Colts' most effective option regardless is to let Luck take shots downfield early and often and force Dallas's offense to play far more up tempo than it wants to. But even the threat of DeMarco Murray playing spells bad news for Indy's run defense.

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) - Consider this the Chiefs' last gasp for a wild card spot, so we might get some "kitchen sink" antics from Andy Reid & co.  Nevertheless, the Steelers' offense looks to be a bit too much for KC to overcome, especially if Ben Roethlisberger has yet another big homefield performance.

Seattle Seahawks (-8) at Arizona Cardinals - Astoundingly, the Arizona Cardinals have already locked up a playoff spot and lead the NFC West going into Week 16. I’m not saying they’ll lie down for the red-hot Seahawks, but they just aren’t going to win the arms race with Ryan Lindley under center and don’t have a lot else to play for this week if they can’t keep Seattle in check early on. I hope Arizona’s defense comes up big to keep the game interesting, but that offense simply has no prayer against a revitalized Legion of Boom.

Denver Broncos (-3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals - Based on the way Peyton Manning and Jeremy Hill have been playing lately, this may end up being a purely ground-and-pound effort for both teams. On paper, the Bengals should give the Broncos a pretty good fight at home, but Andy Dalton has given me zero reasons to trust him in prime time in high-stakes games yet. And with a run defense as good as Denver's, it's going to be tough for Cincy not to put it all on the Red Rifle's shoulders.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

San Diego Chargers at San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) - Oy.  This game probably doesn't belong with the Well Drink crew, but I'm stretching for silver linings all over the schedule - seriously, look at all that garbage about 25 lines down.  Anyway, the 49ers look to be a messier mess than the Chargers right now.  Jim Harbaugh's a lame duck, they'll probably be down to their third-string running back (not even sure who that is), and Chris Borland - a real defensive bright spot - is likely out too. I think Philip Rivers fights for another win during a tough December schedule.

Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins (-6.5) - You know, the Vikings could totally take the Dolphins this weekend. I’m guessing they believe in their coaching situation a lot more than Miami does after another late-season flameout. Nevertheless, Minnesota’s running game is still a liability and Tannehill should have the edge in the passing game.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-6) - I’m pretty confident that the Saints are solely responsible for bringing down my weekly pick rate from great to good. Seriously, when I’ve predicted this team to win, they’ve gone 3 - 7. When I’ve predicted them to lose, they’ve gone 3 - 1 making my overall success rate 4 - 10. So you’re welcome, Saints fans. This is all I have left to salvage the season - Matt Ryan will shred us all when the Saints defense falls swiftly back to Earth in the crowd noise coffin that the Superdome has become this season. I’m jinxing the jinxiest jinx.

Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) at Houston Texans - Given their divisional record, the Ravens are in a must-win situation in Houston this weekend if they hope to lock up a wild card spot. That should be pretty doable with Houston down to rookie third-stringer Tom Savage at quarterback, even with Baltimore's secondary.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) - Editor's Note: I wrote this before I realized you all will have to be subjected to this game on Thursday Night Football, but it was a rant too cathartic to delete. I don’t know if there’s ever been a worse season to be imprisoned in the Tennessee Titans’ media market. Seriously, while the rest of the country gets to see games that have any semblance of playoff significance, the angry [and non-supportive] citizens of Memphis will be stuck white-knuckling their way through 180 minutes with two 2 - 12 teams trying their best to lock up Marcus Mariota through sheer incompetence and petty gamesmanship. This is the part where rational, self-actualized people tell me to go read a book instead.  So Jaguars, I guess?

Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) at Washington Redskinks - Gee, if only Redskinks fans could take a page from the Clippers and find incriminating evidence of their owner championing racist slurs... Then they might be able to finally move on.

Green Bay Packers (-10.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - It's like David and Goliath if David was missing a couple limbs, a rock and a sling.

Detroit Lions (-7.5) at Chicago Bears - Yeesh. We all knew the Bears were bad, but Monday night’s shellacking by the New Orleans defense (really!) does not bode well for Chicago when the infinitely better Lions defense comes to town.  That scenario just got a whole lot more putrid with Jimmy Clausen taking over for Jay Cutler, so I bet tickets to Soldier Field are about to get very economical.

New England Patriots (-10) at New York Jets - Beware the trap game, Patriots.  Rex Ryan is on his way out, but that doesn't mean he won't try to spoil your Christmas in the process.

Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers (-3.5) - Welp, statistically it'd be hard for Johnny Manziel not to improve this week.  But with the Panthers having the slimmest of chances to make the playoffs and maybe getting Cam Newton back, they should have new life while haunting the rookie's nightmares.

New York Giants at St. Louis Rams (-5) - If the Rams have another offensive outing like they did last week, the Giants may have a shot, but St. Louis's defense is just too legit for my blood.  They've held four of their last five opponents to less than 14 points.

Buffalo Bills (-6) at Oakland Raiders - Proof of whether or not we have a merciful God: if the Bills can beat the truly awful Raiders this weekend, 2014 will be their first winning season since 2004.  Let's go Bills!


So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 13 - 3
Season Record: 151 - 74 - 1

Week 15 Picks for Every Game

Hey, look!  I remembered to update the intro to this thing this time around!  Blogging responsibilities = complete.  I finished most awesomely last week with a 13 - 3 outing in the picks, so maybe the whole attention to detail thing is bad for me anyway.  Week 15 is a big one - this is the first week that the top brass can start clinching playoff spots.  It's kind of wild that this is starting so late with no team having more than 10 wins at this point, but the postseason picture is fast coming into focus.  Let's see what the crystal ball has in store:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) - Weren’t we just here a couple of weeks ago? Yes indeed (with another repeat on the docket between the 49ers and Seahawks), but the Cowboys and Eagles are still deadlocked in a division title race and a possible elimination game for whoever’s left fighting for a wild card spot. Philly's recipe for success is clear: start scoring lightning-fast and take Dallas out of its dominant rushing attack early.  It worked to perfection last time.  They have the chops to do it again and at home no less.  But on a hunch that the Cowboys have learned some lessons from last time and will get to play things out with a much more well-rested Murray, I'm going with Dallas tipping the scales.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-1) - Heeeeeeere's Johnny!  Apparently young Manziel's debut as a starter is enough to swing the lines in Vegas.  Or maybe the fact that the Browns already embarrassed the Bengals this season to the tune of 24 - 3.  I have a feeling Andy Dalton will have a much better day with a healthy and productive A.J. Green in tow, and Cincy's other edge is in their running back tandem.  Like the Cowboys/Eagles bout above, this just feels like a division series that will even out, Johnny Football or not.

Green Bay Packers (-5) at Buffalo Bills - Hopefully Green Bay isn't expecting a cakewalk in Buffalo given how the Bills handcuffed Peyton Manning at Mile High last week.  This won't be an easy game against one of the very best defensive fronts in the league, but with the Packers vying for key homefield advantage to try to stave off the soaring Seahawks, I think they'll get it done.  Unfortunately for the 7 - 6 Bills, unless they can pull off a miracle against Green Bay or the Patriots in two weeks, they'll be destined to extend their streak of non-winning seasons another miserable year.  Imagine what these guys could do with a decent quarterback though - they've been fun to watch regardless.

Denver Broncos (-4) at San Diego Chargers - Bad news: Peyton Manning has been in the closest thing I’ve seen to a legit slump during the past two weeks. Good news: You’d never know it with suddenly spectacular C. J. Anderson tying things down on the ground for Denver.  I'm tempted to pick the Chargers at home given Manning's stagnation and Philip Rivers' tendency to play spoiler, but you figure No. 18 will get back to form sooner than later with conference seeding on the line.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-10) - Yeesh.  This may not be much of a contest after the Niners totally rolled over in Oakland last week.  It's a foregone conclusion that Jim Harbaugh is out after this season, so it makes you wonder what kind of motivation San Francisco's locker room will bring out of the gates in a hostile environment they've struggled with many times before.  My guess is super chill gum-chewing truther Pete Carroll will go about business as usual in dismantling the Niners whether or not they play like they have nothing to lose.  But maybe we'll get some good brawls out of the deal as Harbaugh's parting shot.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams (-4.5) - This is the kind of game that you'd hate to see either team lose.  The Rams perked up a little too late to have a shot at the postseason, but they're been the most entertaining team to watch week-in and week-out, and they're also riding a rare two-week shutout streak.  On the other side, the top-seeded Cardinals could very easily lose too much ground in their surprising run if they can't pull off a win this week.  Up to four other NFC teams could end up with 10 wins or better after this weekend, and the Packers and winner of Philly/Dallas certainly will.  I'd love Arizona to shock the world with another must-win, but who wants to play St. Louis these days?

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons - What a difficult [and suddenly interesting] game to pick. The Steelers and Falcons are tearing it up on offense lately, but we all know they are far from flawless. Pittsburgh should have more firepower to win this one, especially if Julio Jones’ hip injury is bad, but these are also the kinds of games the Steelers tend to lose for no good reason.  My best guess--and it's no more than a guess--is that Pittsburgh steps up with the playoffs on the line while Atlanta's passing game takes a step back with Jones out or merely playing decoy.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) - Had the Colts not escaped Cleveland with a win last week, this would be a much bigger game in deciding the AFC South.  If Ryan Fitzpatrick happens to have another miracle 6-TD game, the Texans can still win, but he and his mathematically sound son would agree that's statistically improbable.  Still, J.J. Watt vs. Andrew Luck - sign me up for years to come!

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-7.5) - Is it just me or are the Dolphins always doomed to go to Foxboro in December?  They always seem thisclose to locking up a wild card spot before it all goes to hell, and that's where Joe Philbin finds himself again this season.  The Pats, on the other hand, have a stranglehold on the top seed in the AFC, and they aren't letting go any time soon.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-4) - With the Bears fizzling out and the Lions on an improbably good run with their defense this year, I could definitely see the 6 - 7 Vikings making a play for the postseason next season, especially if Teddy Bridgewater finds his mojo in the pocket.  For this year though, the Lions have the #1 running defense in the NFL, Minnesota has lost its second viable starter in the backfield and Detroit is on a warpath to January.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-10) - I won't go out of my way to call the Oakland Raiders awful.  That has resulted in their only two wins so far this season.  So I'll just say the Chiefs should be too smart and talented to let it happen again.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens (-13.5) - People say the Ravens' biggest issue is their anonymous secondary that can give up territory over the middle.  The Jaguars shouldn't be much cause for concern there.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-3) - The quarterback situation in Carolina is far less than ideal this week, but remember that the Panthers had no problem getting past the Bucs in Tampa with Derek Anderson waaaaay back in Week 1.  I hate Newton with the fire of a thousand supernovae, but I wish him a speedy recovery from an awful injury since he reads this blog and all.

Washington Redskinks at New York Giants (-6.5) - I guess these teams have to take their rightful place on the bottom shelf in order for us to get another spectacular Eagles-Cowboys matchup.  It's called sacrifice, people!  Anyway, the top of the garbage pile belongs to the Giants and their good-for-the-long-haul rookie skill players.

New York Jets (-1.5) at Tennessee Titans - Oof. Here’s a matchup so awful and uninspiring it could be considered for a new category below House Punch (Strychnine, maybe?), especially since these teams should have no motivation at this point other than to tank their way to draft day gold.  But I have one obligation in this weekly post, and that's to speculate on who will win based on strengths and weaknesses.  So the Titans are pretty much screwed with their abysmal run defense since running the ball is all the Jets will ever want to do.

New Orleans Saints (-3) at Chicago Bears - How in the world are the Saints favored to win this game?!?!?! On paper, this may not be the worst matchup anyone has to endure this week, but there may not be two more lackadaisical, depressive teams morale-wise in the NFL right now. I’ll probably watch anyway, but I won’t enjoy it one bit. Matt Forte should have a career day when Drew Brees isn’t throwing the deep ball into triple coverage.



So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 13 - 3
Season Record: 138 - 71 - 1

Who Should I Cheer For in the NCAAF Playoffs? Finding an NFL Spirit Animal for Each Team

In lieu of our (increasingly rare) weekly recap--which would say "Aaron Rodgers/Seattle defense/Julio Jones = good; the NFC South (and the 49ers!) = bad"--I thought I'd take a different kind of football diversion as we enter a new era in college football.  I’m certainly not the world’s biggest college football fan. I mean, if you think all of those Thursday Night Football blowouts were boring and sloppy, the college game is that times fifty with an unfathomable number of marching band variations on "Crazy Train" to boot.  But I digress.  I'm genuinely excited about our inaugural four-team college football playoff. Although there will always be some bellyaching about who gets in and who doesn't until the inevitable 64-team semester-long Subaru-Quiznos-Cronut-Rogaine playoff series, it's hard to argue that any of the four teams who made it don't deserve a shot at the title even if some others are deserving too. 

So who should you cheer for if you're glued to the couch on Sundays instead of Saturdays?  I've prepared a scientifically airtight translation guide to help.  Meet the 2014 NCAA Final Four and their NFL spirit animals!

4) Ohio State Buckeyes = Arizona Cardinals

Everyone counted out the Buckeyes and Cardinals many times this year for strikingly similar reasons.  Arizona lost half of its defensive starters from a year ago as well as starting veteran QB Carson Palmer and has had to make do with lots of spare parts and next men up.  Ohio State is down to its third starting quarterback after season-ending injuries to Braxton Miller before Week 1 and then to surprisingly good backup J.T. Barrett just two weeks ago.  Yet here they are in December, the Cardinals currently with the #1 seed in the NFC and the Buckeyes leap-frogging the Big Ten for the final coveted playoff spot.  It's no accident.  Urban Meyer and Bruce Arians have lived up to their miracle-worker status with dramatic team turnarounds in the face of adversity, and they can make just about anyone look better on the offensive side of the ball in particular.  Side note: In researching this, I was surprised to see that Urban Meyer rose up through the defensive ranks, but anyone that can make Tim Tebow and Alex Smith look like elite quarterbacks is an offensive guru in my book.  The same goes for Arians resurrecting Carson Palmer's career.  So if you like a scrappy underdog that continues to surprise everyone (at least until bigger bullies come along), saddle up with Ohio State.

3) Florida State Seminoles = Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a tough team to pin down.  I promise you I have more reasons to assign the Steelers to the Seminoles than just the unfortunate parallels between Jameis Winston and Ben Roethlisberger.  And given all of FSU's off-the-field troubles coupled with very favorable "law" enforcement and the punchable quality of this coach's face, the 49ers are probably a more accurate spirit animal in that regard.  Anyway, I associate these two teams with a very high ceiling when all the pieces come together--especially on offense--but also a lot of question marks about how good they really are when they've been so uneven.  How can a team that hasn't lost a game in two seasons be remotely considered uneven?!, Florida State fans demand.  I won't deny that they were rock-solid last year, but they owe about 20,000 hours of community service after all the divine intervention they were bestowed by barely beating most teams this season on a weak schedule.  Highlights include taking Clemson to overtime, getting bailed out on offensive pass interference against Notre Dame, and surviving several awful turnovers against the lowly Florida Gators.  Similarly, Pittsburgh has dazzled and baffled at times this year despite its cushy schedule with the AFC South and NFC South.  One minute, Big Ben is putting up 6-TD performances against the Colts and Ravens.  The next, the Steelers are getting trounced by the Saints, Jets, and Browns.  Let's not forget their very un-FSU finish against the Buccaneers.  So who knows with these teams?  They could be good enough to outgun some big opponents in the clutch, or they could get eaten alive by their readily apparent flaws, particularly on defense.

2) Oregon Ducks = Philadel  Green Bay Packers

Alright, alright.  Chip Kelly's Eagles look mighty similar to the Oregon Ducks for obvious reasons.  But Mark Sanchez (or a healthy Nick Foles) is no Marcus Mariota.  You know who's a pretty transcendent quarterback in the NFL though?  Aaron Rodgers.  Both of these guys have played a dominant, deadly-efficient brand of football this season that has catapulted their teams to the top tier and made them frontrunners for the MVP/Heisman.  Their accuracy and scrambling ability puts the fear of God into defenses that try to prepare for them, and the Ducks and Packers are putting up yards and points that are insurmountable for most offenses trying to keep up.  And, barring Green Bay's near-whiff against Atlanta this week, these teams' defenses are on the upswing too at just the right time to give themselves a little more separation from the pack.  If they've got a chance to win the big one over the next couple of months, it will be because of flawless performances under center and a little luck on those bend-not-break defenses.  Counterpoint: The Packers' uniforms sure could use a little more flair after all these years.

1) Alabama Crimson Tide = New England Patriots

As if there was any doubt.  Bill Belichick and Nick Saban go way back starting with their time together with the Cleveland Browns and they're kind of twinsies when you think about it.  They're scowling, stoic perfectionists who seem to enjoy winning just as much as the average Joe enjoys a hemmorhoid, but that doesn't stop them from putting together championship-caliber seasons pretty much every year.  I could go on, but you get the idea.  Another coaching parallel to consider: offensive coordinators Lane Kiffin and Josh McDaniels are daffy caricatures who failed mightily as head coaches but rebounded nicely in their supporting roles for these proud franchises.  Then there's the teams' trajectories this season.  They haven't been as dominant on either side of the ball as past rosters have and stumbled out of the gate.  The Tide lost to Ole Miss in their first SEC West game of the season and barely beat unranked Arkansas a week later.  Meanwhile, the Patriots started out 2 - 2 with a public Monday night drubbing to the good-but-lesser Kansas City Chiefs, sparking talk that Tom Brady was finally done in Foxboro.  But they quietly made adjustments and rediscovered their firepower from the likes of Amari Cooper and Rob Gronkowski in the open field, and now Alabama and New England are solid championship bets... again.  They're boring and safe bets, but they're probably going to be your winners regardless.


And the honorable mention for TCU and Baylor goes to... the St. Louis Rams!  You'd love to see any of these teams in the playoffs and they'd be dangerous contenders, but they sure got the short end of the conference stick while the NFC South lives on.

Week 14 Picks for Every NFL Game

We're down to the last quarter of the regular season, and it looks to be a wild finish.  It's mathematically possible for eight teams to finish 9 - 7 in the AFC, which would be better settled by a mass rock-paper-scissors tournament than whatever tie-breaker system the NFL will have to implement.  Anyway, here's what I think will happen to untangle those knots this week:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) - Vastly different styles of play and divisional ground at stake make this a drool-worthy Lady Blitz Game of the Week.  If Seattle's record so far is any indicator, the Eagles can win this one if they can get to 28 points or better.  But that's getting a lot harder to do with a revitalized Legion of Boom.  When in doubt, I gotta go defense on this one.

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-3) - The Chargers stole a win from Baltimore last week on a questionable PI call while the Dolphins barely escaped total embarrassment in the Meadowlands on Monday night.  I'm trying to learn not to overcompensate when I get things wrong, but in the karmic balance with a playoff bid on the line, I'm putting my trust in John Harbaugh and--gulp--Joe Flacco to get things done in Miami.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3) - Welp, it may be time for Steelers fans to face the music - With the exception of two implausibly good passing performances from Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh hasn't had any impressive wins this year, certainly not when they needed them most.  Of course, the Bengals are experts at wilting in opportune moments so this could end up getting sloppy.  I guess I'm going with the home team against a fairly anemic Steelers pass rush that just lost Brett Keisel for the year.

Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals (-1) - When the dust settles, one of these teams will be mighty close to punching their postseason ticket while the other will be nursing the wounds of an 0 - 3 slide.  And admittedly, I don't know where they really stand with mounting injuries and exposed weaknesses starting to eat into their winning ways.  I've changed this pick about five times in writing this.  My confirmation bias says: 1) the Cardinals are great against the run; 2) Larry Fitzgerald is coming back and Eric Berry's out; 3) Arizona has sneaky-good homefield advantage. 

New England Patriots (-3.5) at San Diego Chargers - The Chargers found new life last weekend after a prolonged slump, so I'm not counting out Philip Rivers in making life hard on the Patriots this weekend.  Nevertheless, I can count on one hand the times Bill Belichick has let this team lose consecutive games, and New England might have a little more urgency about that #1 seed this time around.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at Chicago Bears - If the Bears have a shot at this one, it'll be because their rush defense isn't so bad.  The Cowboys will definitely want the upper hand on the ground in the cold and windy environs of Chicago, and they should have it with an offensive line that would like to avenge last week's loss to the Eagles.

Indianapolis Colts (-4) at Cleveland Browns - This game is all about tempo - the Colts will want to Andrew Luck their way to an early lead with an arsenal of speedy receivers.  The Browns will want to grind it out on the ground to limit Brian Hoyer's recent forays as a gunslinger.  Hopefully Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West will keep things interesting for a bit, but it's just impossible not to see the Colts breaking away.

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos (-10) - I want this to be a top shelf game with that league-best Bills pass rush.  But Peyton Manning's not likely to repeat a lackluster performance like last week at Arrowhead, and Kyle Orton isn't even on the same planet to keep up.

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-12) - A twelve-point spread?  This Saints fan says go right ahead, Aaron Rodgers!  Still, Matt Ryan and Julio Jones have rediscovered some chemistry in recent weeks, so expect some dueling explosive plays to make this a little more fun than it should be.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Houston Texans (-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars - Why can't J.J. Watt be the MVP again?

New York Giants at Tennessee Titans (PK) - Oy. After last week's whiff in Jacksonville, who knows what the Giants will do against the 2 - 10 Titans?  After all, they've only got one more win in the midst of a horrific season.  I'm team Odell though. 

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-9.5) - The Saints should quite obviously win this one, so I'm already tearing my hair out in anticipation of them blowing it.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-9.5) - So the Lions are really going to go to the playoffs this year, huh?  Let the Jim Caldwell rollercoaster begin!

St. Louis Rams (-2.5) at Washington Redskinks - A succinct understatement: The Redskinks are having problems on defense.  The Rams are not.

New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-6) - Geno Smith vs. that pass rush is bad, bad news for the handful of Jets fans still watching.

San Francisco 49ers (-8) at Oakland Raiders - Maybe Jim Harbaugh will find some time to tour Oakland's front office during his commute across the bay.



So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 8 - 8
Season Record: 125 - 68 - 1

NFL Stock Watch and Last-Minute Playoff Predictions

It's amazing how the football world has shifted since those first few weeks of September, light years ago.  For all we knew, a washed-up Tom Brady was going to get traded to the Texans, the Cowboys were going to have their worst season in a decade, and the Seahawks/49ers were guaranteed playoff spots for the third year in a row.  Some of those stars have realigned of course, but with so much mayhem in the AFC and many divisional contenders still neck-and-neck in the NFC, it's time to take a stock watch on who will be left standing in January.  Here are the strengths and weaknesses to look out for with our potential contenders and my last-minute playoff predictions before the dust officially settles.

Rising Stock in the NFL

The Packers' Offensive Line - Sure, the Patriots have been a little shorthanded lately on defense, but Aaron Rodgers could have finished a crossword in the pocket on Sunday with all the time his offensive line gave him.  I distinctly recall one snap where he had at least 12 seconds to wait for someone to get open, about four times longer than a quarterback normally gets.  The Packers are allowing sacks at half the rate they were during the first two months of the season, and Aaron Rodgers' MVP-caliber passer rating just keeps going up.  Rodgers with that kind of time is a truly scary prospect, especially if Green Bay locks up homefield advantage. 

A Healthy Seahawks' Defense - But if there's one team that has spoiler potential to frustrate the Packers at Lambeau, it's the Seahawks finally getting healthy on defense.  Russell Wilson's offense still isn't lighting the world on fire these days, but that doesn't matter when you've held your last two opponents to three points a piece.  Seattle generated 11 turnovers and 10 sacks during the month of November and they looked primed to retake the NFC West back from the Cardinals before the season ends.

The Eagles' Pass Rush - Any fantasy wonk will tell you the Eagles have it going on with their special teams and defense this year.  Despite some less than inspiring offensive performances, Philadelphia has proven to be a fast and opportunistic team that does far more than run Chip Kelly's machine.  It's a parity crime then that Philly's pass rush is so good too - they're second only to Buffalo with 42 sacks so far this season.  As we saw Thursday afternoon against the Cowboys, that level of disruption may just be the edge in nabbing another division title this year.

C.J. Anderson - What if I'd told you Peyton Manning threw for less than 200 yards with a 50% completion rate and Denver still won comfortably against the Chiefs this weekend?  The Broncos' pass rush and/or Chiefs' offensive line certainly had something to do with the outcome (more on that later), but the Broncos have found a real gem in third-string running back C.J. Anderson to carry them when Manning has a [rare] off day.  He's put up over 150 yards at 5+ yards a clip over the past two games and may not end up losing his spot once Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball get healthy.  Anderson could be a difference-maker if the Broncos end up going to the blizzardrous environs of, say, Foxboro in January.

Donte Moncrief - It's definitely a little early to call, but for all the buzz Kelvin Benjamin, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans and Odell Beckham have gotten in a stacked rookie receiver class, Donte Moncrief might just join the party before this season's over.  With Reggie Wayne close to retirement and a running game far from reliable, Moncrief is starting to look like a deadly tandem replacement alongside T.Y. Hilton.  The guy averaged nearly 45 yards per catch on Sunday.  45.  And considering how good he used to make Bo Wallace look at Ole Miss, imagine what he can do for Andrew Luck.

Falling Stock in the NFL

The Chiefs' Offensive Line - Few (other than me) expected the Chiefs to win against the Broncos on Sunday night, so it's not like their fortunes should have changed too dramatically from last week, but that offensive line is becoming a real cause for concern.  Alex Smith has been absolutely brutalized over the past two games; in fact, the Raiders were so excited about beating him up that they almost lost in the most purely face-palming way possible.  Kansas City gave up 15 sacks last month with six a piece happening against the Bills and Broncos.  More concerning, they're averaging 20 fewer yards per game these days than they did in the first half of the season.  Without a dominant Jamaal Charles or an upright Smith, the Chiefs may not make it to January.

Colin Kaepernick's Big Play Ability - After lighting the Cowboys' secondary on fire in Week 1, Colin Kaepernick looks nowhere near the breakout star he was when he first filled in for Alex Smith two years ago, and it's bringing the 49ers down.  Just ask Frank Gore.  Some of that falls on the likely-to-be-oustered Jim Harbaugh for his play-calling, but Kaepernick just hasn't been an explosive playmaker or solid pocket passer lately in keeping defenses honest.  His longest rush on the year is just 23 yards and he's only passed for multiple touchdowns in three games this season.  After getting absolutely drubbed at home by the rival Seahawks on Thanksgiving, it's hard to envision Kaepernick turning things around before the season ends.

Brian Hoyer's Decision-Making - Don't get me wrong, I guess I'm thankful that Brian Hoyer marched the Browns down field in time to beat the Falcons last week, but after staving off Manziel-Mania admirably for three months, he's starting to resemble a backup worth benching.  Hoyer has played complementary game manager to Cleveland's steady running game and stout defense to this point, but he's quickly devolving into a reckless gunslinger now that Josh Gordon is back in the lineup.  After throwing just two interceptions through October, Hoyer has thrown eight picks over the past five games; that includes five picks and zero touchdowns since Gordon returned.  I still firmly believe he's a better option for the playoff-hopeful Browns than Manziel, but Cleveland would do well to remind Hoyer how the Browns have won games to this point.

The Cardinals' Roster - Who knows what Bruce Arians & co. might still draw up to keep the Cardinals in pole position over these next four weeks.  They've surprised us all season long.  But even the best coach would be hard-pressed to make do with the mounting injuries Arizona has faced this season.  The hits just keep coming.  First, the Cardinals lost half of their starting defense from a year ago before the season started.  Then Carson Palmer was lost for the season with an ACL tear just days after signing a new contract. Starting RB Andre Ellington has struggled with a nagging foot injury all season long, and Larry Fitzgerald's absence has had a huge impact on backup QB Drew Stanton's productivity.  In fact, Arizona hasn't scored a touchdown in the past two weeks.  And with Patrick Peterson getting his pride wounded by Julio Jones and friends last weekend, the Cardinals are starting to lose the few bright spots they have left on the roster at the worst time possible.

Last-Minute Playoff Predictions

And finally, I've run the numbers on what I think will happen for each team over the last four weeks of the regular season, and here's my best guess (take that as you may) as to who will end up where when January rolls around:

AFC

1) New England Patriots - The Pats sure would have loved to get that win in Lambeau, but with tie-breaking advantages against all other division leaders, the top spot in the AFC is theirs to lose.

2) Denver Broncos - Denver has a real shot at its third 13 - 3 season in a row and a possible top seed if the Patriots slip up.  If there's one matchup left to circle on the calendar, it's traveling to Cincinnati in Week 16.

3) Cincinnati Bengals - Even though the Colts have the head-to-head tie-breaker on this one, that Bengals' tie against the Panthers might just pay off after all.

4) Indianapolis Colts - The Colts could certainly move ahead of the Bengals if they play their cards right, but that'll include a tricky trip to Dallas in Week 16.

5) Baltimore Ravens - Given the ease of the Ravens' and Dolphins' schedules to close out the year, their head-to-head matchup next week has HUGE implications for who might end up here.

6) Kansas City Chiefs - I'm just as nervous as you are about that offensive line but with the reeling Cardinals, Raiders, Steelers and Chargers left on the schedule, they've got as good a shot as anyone.


Wild Card Round: Chiefs over Bengals, Colts over Ravens

Divisional Round: Patriots over Chiefs, Broncos over Colts

AFC Championship: Patriots over Broncos


NFC

1) Green Bay Packers - Who's going to beat the Packers this month?  By the looks of things, almost certainly no one unless the Buffalo Bills can infiltrate that stout offensive line in Week 15.

2) Philadelphia Eagles - The Eagles took a huge step forward in beating Dallas last week, and other than a tussle with the Seahawks next week, they could win out against all three divisional opponents to end the season unless the Cowboys bring a real vendetta in their second meeting.

3) Seattle Seahawks - With Arizona dropping two in a row, the Seahawks are doing everything right to reclaim the division title.  Plus, they get the reeling Cardinals again in three weeks.

4) New Orleans Saints - I stand by my statement that I want this team to get some good draft picks far more than I want them to get eviscerated in the playoffs, but the Saints have a manageable road ahead with three divisional games including hosting the Falcons in a likely elimination game.

5) Detroit Lions - Schwartz men no more - these Lions keep winning and they've got a very manageable road ahead with the Buccaneers, Vikings and Bears still left on the schedule.

6) Arizona Cardinals - I predict a photo finish with the Cowboys or 49ers for the final spot in the playoffs, but the Cardinals have a head-to-head win against Dallas and will likely get the tie-breaker with San Francisco sitting at 1 - 3 in the division and having to go up to Seattle in two weeks.


Wild Card Round: Seahawks over Cardinals, Saints over Lions

Divisional Round: Packers over Saints, Seahawks over Eagles

AFC Championship: Packers over Seahawks


Super Bowl: Packers over Patriots - You know you want to see this one happen again.

Week 13 Picks for Every NFL Game

The finish line is in sight for the 2014 regular season with no more bye weeks and a whole lot of divisions up for grabs that aren’t the AFC East. I’m thankful for a cornucopia of great games coming up this holiday weekend (and family and stuff) and at peace with the fact that I probably won’t be able to repeat the kind of blistering hot picks record I achieved in Week 12. With that in mind, here goes nothing:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3) - Remember how frequently the Cowboys' Thanksgiving games have sucked in recent years?  Throw all of that out the window with a rekindled NFC East rivalry between the 8 - 3 Eagles and Cowboys.  Lady Blitz Game of the Week?  Natch.  I think the Eagles will put up a good fight, but Philly has been most successful this year by generating turnovers and getting aggressive with their pass rush.  That'll be none too easy against Dallas's MVP-worthy offensive line.  Also going against the Eagles: Mark Sanchez.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-1) - I love how the NFL seems to pick the most delightfully nasty rivalries to round out the Thanksgiving slate at night.  It doesn't get much bloodier than the Seahawks and 49ers, and given the state of the NFC wild card race, this could end up being a fatal blow to at least one of these teams' playoff hopes.  In a game that always seems to be up for grabs until the final whistle, I see the Niners eking it out at home with a defense that's finally back at full speed. 

Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-2.5) - Josh  Gordon and Sammy Watkins.  Two brutal defenses.  Two befuddling quarterbacks.  It could all mean a lot of fun as these surprisingly good teams muscle for position in the heated AFC playoff race.  The Bills usually let me down when I pick 'em, so apologies in advance to this cabin-feverish fan base, but I think Buffalo's run-stuffing ways will be too much for the Browns to hold steady on offense.

New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers (-3) - Were there not more pressing playoff implications elsewhere on the schedule, this would surely be the Lady Blitz Game of the Week. But barring unforeseen disaster, the Pats and the Pack look like shoe-ins for their division titles at this point, so this is just offensive juggernaut lagniappe for all of us. Never thought I’d see those three words strung together.  Also, I would not complain at all if these two teams end up meeting again in February. For that reason, this is a tough game to pick - the Packers are mighty good at home, but these are the kind of coaching performances Bill Belichick lives for.  Somehow, I think he'll find one too many wrinkles for Mike McCarthy and Dom Capers to adapt to.

 Denver Broncos (-1.5) at Kansas City Chiefs - Alright, alright.  This might be a far-fetched pick, especially seeing how the Chiefs just laid an egg in Oakland a week ago.  The Broncos should absolutely win this game by most statistical measures, but I'm thinking of two things: 1) that Denver's offensive line has really struggled - not a good matchup against a solid Chiefs pass rush; and 2) I believe in emotional games.  With Eric Berry sidelined for the season with a possible lymphoma diagnosis, you better believe KC is going to try to get a big-time W for him in prime time.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-7) - Detroit should have reason to celebrate this season with a ferocious defense matching up against the sputtering Bears' offense on Turkey Day.  Jay Cutler will bring his famous pouting casserole for all to share!

San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) -The Ravens look primed to make a playoff run with plenty of juice in the receiving corps and a young, disruptive defense stepping up nicely against the lesser teams Baltimore should beat.  The Chargers fit that "lesser teams Baltimore should beat" bill to a tee.

New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) - Alright Saints, it is time to tank like there's no tomorrow until the month of April.  Whatever NFC South team falls backwards into the playoffs could end up going 15 spots later in the draft than it would otherwise be.  And this team desperately needs some young, physical talent in the trenches that Pittsburgh will be taking advantage of this week.

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons - Talk about yin and yang, this game may come to symbolize the best and worst coaching regimes in the NFL right now. The Falcons are beyond desperate at this point to keep the NFC South title in their sights, but the Cardinals’ secondary always seems to have Matt Ryan’s number, so Arizona it is.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Washington Redskinks at Indianapolis Colts (-9.5) - It's Colt vs. the Colts on Sunday in the next chapter of the Redskinks' revolving door of quarterbacks.  So I'm picking the plural team.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-6.5) - I was wrong about a lot of preseason win-loss predictions, but I did peg the Titans as a 4 - 12 team, just sayin'.  Even Ryan Fitzpatrick should be fine facing his former, downtrodden team.  And as a bonus, he's been ready for Movember for months!

New York Giants (-2.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars - After dropping six straight games during a brutal stretch in the schedule, the Giants should finally have some relief this week.  In fact, they could make a nice meaningless run to close out the season with the Jags, Titans, Redskinks and Rams coming up.  That's enough for Odell Beckham to start his own NFL Globetrotters series against some spotty secondaries.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The Buccaneers are still trying.  The Buccaneers are still bad.  Plus, the only time Andy Dalton can be called reliable is from the hours of 12 - 3pm, which is good for the Bengals this week.

Oakland Raiders at St. Louis Rams (-7) - I was genuinely impressed with the Raiders' sole win to this point in the season last week.  That was no accident - they were aggressive upfront in keeping the Chiefs off schedule and had some pretty plays from rookie Derek Carr.  Still, does anyone think they can do it again, especially away from home against a fantastic front seven?

Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings (-3) - The Panthers could definitely win this thing depending on how many ice baths Cam Newton was able to take during his time off. Still, the way Carolina's offensive line has struggled, they'll have a very tough time in the frosty environs of Minnesota against Everson Griffin and his sack-happy colleagues.

Miami Dolphins (-6) at New York Jets - Somehow the Jets have come back around in deciding their best quarterback option is Geno Smith.  That is all.



So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 13 - 2
Season Record: 117 - 60 - 1

Week 12 Picks for Every NFL Game

I'm getting a little pre-Thanksgiving senioritis about this blog; hence the picks will be brief and filled with even less sound reasoning than usual. But since you asked, here are my Week 12 picks for every NFL game:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) - What an epic NFC West tumble in the Hawks' Nest - I think I'll make it the Lady Blitz Game of the Week.  The Cardinals have no problem being the underdog for another week, but sooner or later, I think they'll stumble with so many injuries.  Seattle might be that place.

Detroit Lions at New England Patriots (-7) - I can't wait to see how the mighty Detroit defense fares in Foxboro against Gronk and friends.  It should be a good chess match of an early game, but the Lions' offense hasn't proven it can hold serve in several weeks.

Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos (-7) - And finally, our only other game this week between two teams with winning records.  Woo.  The Broncos should be wary since the Dolphins have a defense that's every bit as good as the Rams were last week, but I reckon the Denver Peytons will rebound.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons (-3) - The Browns should win this, right? They've matched up well against teams with a mediocre-to-bad defense and the Falcons have one of those.

Green Bay Packers (-9.5) at Minnesota Vikings - In all likelihood, this won't be an interesting game for very long, but hopefully the Vikings' pass rush and growing stable of second-tier running backs will make things a little more ground-y and pound-y than the Packers would like for a couple quarters.  Before Aaron Rodgers destroys all.

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-2) - Despite Andy Dalton's impressive rebound in New Orleans last week, he's never had a good time in Houston, at least in January.  With A.J. Green and Giovanni Bernard returning, I'll take a chance on the Bengals this time around.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (-5.5) - The only reason this game isn't in the House Punch is because Lovie Smith is returning to Chicago with the weird possibility of keeping the 2 - 8 Bucs alive in the playoff hunt.  It'd be sweet if he could exact revenge on the Bears for dumping him after a 10-win season, but Tampa's still a pretty shady team, just sayin'.

St. Louis Rams at San Diego Chargers (-4.5) - Protect Philip Rivers' ribs, for the love of the contusion gods!  Given the Chargers' recent woes on the offensive line, there's a legitimate chance the Rams can win this one.  But now that San Diego's got Ryan Mathews back to take some pressure off of Rivers, I'm thinking the Chargers start turning it around and playing the slow, physical style they prefer.

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at New York Giants - Although "Bad Eli" has been somewhat of a rarity this season, Good Eli has yet to make an appearance.  And judging by the Giants' total inability to stop Marshawn Lynch a couple weeks back in Seattle, DeMarco Murray will be more than enough for Dallas to control this game.

Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints (-3.5) - Generally speaking, the Saints are unimpeachable in prime time in the Superdome.  But seeing as how this season is going, I guess I'll go ahead and jinx them again.  They deserve it.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Kansas City Chiefs (-7) at Oakland Raiders - Poor Oakland.  Poor, poor Oakland.

Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles (-11) -  You know, Zach Mettenberger might not be all that bad for the Titans.  I think they've got a little more of a shot than the spread would suggest, especially seeing Mark Sanchez return to his old befuddling ways in Green Bay last week.  But it's the Titans.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-14) - This game will still probably get higher ratings than the last five World Series combined.  Chew on that for a minute.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-4.5) - The weather conditions couldn't be more perfect for some ugly smashmouth football from these rivals. Expect the Bills to play bully to the Jets' stagnant offense during yet another blizzard.

Washington Redskinks at San Francisco 49ers (-9) - New idea for a reality show: Jim Harbaugh and RG3 doing joint press conferences. It'd be virtually as appealing as the Kardashians and they did okay.



So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 9 -5
Season Record: 104 - 58 - 1

Week 11 NFL Recap

What an exciting Tuesday for this sports lover! Things are really looking up with the Memphis Grizzlies starting the season 10 - 1, the very best record in the NBA after routing a very good Houston Rockets squad. Oh wait, this is a professional football blog? I have to discuss the Saints or any portion of the NFC South? Well nevermind then. Here’s your Week 11 recap, starting with the good stuff:

Week 11: The Good Stuff

The St. Louis Spoilers - I demand an immediate transfer of the St. Louis Rams to the NFC South where they could win out and not be a total joke in January. Although the Rams have only four wins this season, they are arguably the best four wins of any team in the NFL, and when you consider St. Louis’s total portfolio of work, they’ve had some very respectable losses too that make this team much better than their record. First, they ran special teams circles around the Seahawks for their first wild west kind of upset. Then, they sacked the Colin Kaepernick 8 times and managed a spectacular goal line stand in San Francisco. But none of that compares to holding Peyton Manning’s Broncos to 7 points on Sunday. Even though Denver had some very tough game-time injuries to overcome, there’s no diminishing how the Rams’ defensive front came alive, keeping Manning off his mark all afternoon and forcing a rare multiple-interception game from the great one. Are you not entertained?!

Mike Evans' Transcendence - If there’s a dark horse moving up swiftly for Offensive Rookie of the Year, it’s Tampa’s lone bright spot WR Mike Evans. Evans was enough to save Josh McCown’s starts for another week with 200 yards and 2 TDs against the reeling Redskinks on Sunday. In fact, he’s the first rookie receiver to put up at least 100 yards and a touchdown three weeks in a row since Randy Moss in 1998. That’s a big freakin’ deal. And since the football gods clearly have a sense of humor about everything I love and hold dear, you can’t even rule the 2 - 8 Bucs out of the playoffs since they’re only two games back from the 4 - 6 Falcons. Not the way Evans makes this offense look suddenly more than functional.

The Red Bird Rasputins - Every time it looks like the Cardinals are about to regress to the mean with another injury and another formidable opponent, they flip you off and keep on winning. At this point, there’s nothing accidental about Arizona going 10 - 6 last year or having the best record in the league through 11 weeks in 2014. That defense and passing game are legit no matter who’s on the field. And Sunday was another proof point for the league’s most resilient team: Carson Palmer out for the season, journeyman backup Drew Stanton in his place against a ferocious Detroit defense, Calvin Johnson returning to give the Lions some much-needed stretch on offense. It wasn’t pretty, but the Cardinals came away with yet another improbable win and looked very much in control the whole time they were doing it. I’m falling in love and making no inferences about how they’ll do in the postseason lest I doom them with my usual blogging jinx of death.

Nailed It!  My Best Week 11 Prediction - In the end, it seems like a no-brainer, but the Colts were favored at home to get the upper hand against the Patriots.  Too bad I deleted that whole section I was going to write about Jonas Gray's breakout from the practice squad...:

• [Brady has] played lights out ever since the Gronk returned to full health, and the Patriots have simply beaten better teams this year than the Colts.  Throw in the fact that Bill Belichick has had two straight weeks to prepare for this one, and I'm sticking with New England another year.

Week 11: The Bad Stuff

Seattle's Worst on Fourth Down - To be fair, I don't blame Pete Carroll's team for going for it on fourth down on three consecutive drives Sunday.  The first time, they were down by four at the goal-line, but Russell Wilson missed Doug Baldwin in the corner of the end zone.  Then they started running out of time and gambled on a 4th-and-1 with Marshawn Lynch, which usually works.  Not against the run-stuffing Chiefs.  Their last 4th-down was a desperation attempt with a minute to go in the game.  But in every case, the Seahawks' offense, which has done practically anything it wants to at times this season, looked tentative and relied heavily on Russell Wilson trying to improvise his way out of sack after sack at Arrowhead.  A lot of credit goes to the Chiefs too now that this defense is back at full-steam, but Seattle fans should start getting nervous about the state of the NFC West if this team doesn't turn it around on offense ASAP. 

Saints No More, 'Aints Again - True story: I told my husband the Saints were going to lose the moment I saw the pre-game huddle with Drew Brees on Sunday. Nobody was into it, and the few players trying to humor him were way out of sync. I could go on about the lack of confidence, the foregone sense of urgency, and outright miserable third-down defense well before I get to any excuses about injuries and age for this team. But these two plays against Cincinnati pretty much sum up everything wrong with the Saints this year: 1) Jeremy Hill’s 62-yard gash up the middle on a halftime draw play; and 2) Marcus Ball committing one of the most hilariously bad encroachment penalties I’ve ever seen.  (No video, but he pretty much ran full-force into the Bengals' offensive line without waiting for the snap). I’ve definitely shifted my wishful thinking in hopes that New Orleans tanks the rest of the way this season - there’s no need to miss out on whoever the top-rated defensive back of 2015 is going to be and the Saints have no business in the playoffs.

The Bad of Eli - They may be three games back in the NFC West, but you can’t count out the 49ers just yet after their defense absolutely dismantled the Giants. Having Aldon Smith back on the field next to one of the biggest rookie breakouts of the year in Chris Borland will do that. But Manning also helped things out with a 5-interception whopper of a passing performance.  They were mostly awful throws too - two into double/triple coverage, two that were off-target to open receivers and a real dagger deflected at the goal line in the fourth quarter that could have put the Giants in the lead against the sputtering 49ers offense. It's a wonder to think where Eli Manning would be today without two miracle Super Bowls with New York. In a deal with the devil, I guess a lot of Giants fans would gladly take 10 years of misery for two postseason runs that now seem especially unreal given Manning's past three mistake-riddled years.

Shanked It! My Worst Week 11 Prediction - Boy did I think I’d be dodging a bullet when it was announced Arian Foster would not start for the Texans. That evaporated pretty quickly. One thing I feel totally comfortable predicting: J.J. Watt for DPOY.

• In a move I'll almost certainly regret, I'm making a last-minute switch to the favored Browns.  The Texans have a real shot here with Arian Foster against a shaky rush defense and Mallett, whom Cleveland has almost zero film on, but maybe the Browns are actually good while the Texans are mediocre.