Week 4 Picks for Every NFL Game

So many questions and anxieties going into Week 4.  Inquiring minds want to know, are the Colts really that good or are the 49ers really that bad?  Can the Bears' opportunistic defense and Peyton Manning's passing game sustain these levels of dominance for another 13 games?  Will it be the Steelers or Vikings who finally put a notch in the win column?  Can Lady Blitz reclaim a level of respectability after a rough 7 - 9 week in the picks?  I sure hope so, but at least I'm not the Giants.  Here we go:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints (-6.5) - Another undefeated team will fall when the dust settles from this Lady Blitz Game of the Week.  The Saints look like they're getting back to vintage aerial form while the Dolphins have proven they can hang with [2012] playoff contenders like the Colts and Falcons.  This could be a shootout if Ryan Tannehill has another fourth quarter like last week, but New Orleans tends to put on the fireworks at the Superdome in prime time.

Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Houston Texans - Given that both of these teams have a good shot at the playoffs this year, this game eked onto the Top Shelf.  But talk about a bad time for the Texans offense to go sputtering.  The Seahawks defense has allowed a paltry 9 points per game so far in 2013, and over half of those were donated to the Jaguars in garbage time last week.  I don't see Seattle budging for the likes of Matt Schaub despite the early kick off time in Houston.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3) - Remember when the Bears were 7 - 1 last year?  They're sure looking a lot like that healthy, opportunistic and well-rounded team now.  The Lions are arguably the best offense Chicago will have faced through Week 4, and playing at home indoors could make it harder for the Bears to slow down a decent set of skill players.  Nevertheless, Chicago has roughly two shut-down defenders for every major offensive weapon in Detroit's arsenal, and I love the way that Aaron Kromer-led offensive line is holding up for Jay Cutler.

Dallas Cowboys (-2) at San Diego Chargers - What to do with this game, which ought to be a good one.  The Cowboys have played well enough to be 3 - 0 against three so-so to awful offenses.  The Chargers have also played well enough to be 3 - 0 (though they are 1 - 2) with only late game breakdowns holding them back.  Can the anti-clutch Tony Romo find some mojo against one of the most anti-clutch teams in the league?  I'm hesitantly banking on it.

New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons (-2) - This may end up being a Has Been Top Shelf game between two teams that are looking more mortal than they have in years.  With all of the injuries the Pats and Falcons now need to overcome, it could end up being a boxing max between two amputees.  But these coaches and QBs are a prideful and competitive bunch, and I think they'll leave everything on the field on Sunday.  In what could be a close one, I think the Falcons have the edge, trying to avenge a tough loss in Week 3 with a return home.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

San Francisco 49ers (-3) at St. Louis Rams - Soul searching, thy name is the 49ers. I can't imagine how tense things have to be right now in Jim Harbaugh's locker room with a short week away from home and that whole medicated tire-burning affair.  Whether they come out on top this week, the 10-day break ought to do San Francisco some good in figuring out what the heck to do with sudden vulnerabilities at receiver and linebacker.  But the Rams weren't a good match up for the fully loaded Niners last year, and they sure have a window of opportunity here to gain some ground in the NFC West while their rivals are down.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Buffalo Bills - The Ravens are really starting to click with a rejuvenated and more coordinated defense than we saw in Week 1.  The Bills, on the other hand, have had their fun but still have too many inconsistencies on the roster to do more than jockey with the Jets for third place.  With the hope that E.J. Manuel continues to make things at least watchable, I hope this game gives us 2 - 3 quarters of back and forth banter before a decisive Baltimore win.

Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) - So Josh Freeman is finally riding the pine after a disastrous 2.2 seasons since his anomalous 2010 banner year as the Bucs’ QB. This game won’t be a cakewalk for either team despite the lineup change given that both defenses have looked solid to date, but I can’t imagine rookie QB Mike Glennon getting it done against the Honey Badger & company. The Cards get to steal one away from home against a team in turmoil.

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-3.5) - I'm still a little disbelieving that the Titans could easily be 3 - 0 right now.  I'm a whole lot more disbelieving that the Jets are also sporting a 2 - 1 record, but kudos to Rex Ryan for weathering the media cluster-abyss-vortex-tsunami in New York and getting his team more focused than we've seen in a long time.  But if I'm playing the odds, Tennessee's defense will be too much for Geno Smith and a lackluster bunch of RBs.

Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos (-10.5) - Guess who already has 12 TDs in three weeks and still manages to complain about hosting one of the worst defenses in the league on a short week?  No matter.  The Broncos should have this game handily since that defense can bring the same kind of disruptive style to the Eagles that the Chiefs did a whopping 1.5 weeks ago.  Still, in hopes of a wild and crazy high-scoring affair, I'm giving this game a Well Drink bump. Interesting science experiment: how long can Philly keep up the no huddle theatrics in the thin Denver air?  I say 2.5 quarters.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings - Mark my Madden-esque words: The team that wins this game is the team that plays the team that wants it least.  The Steelers' offensive line is a hot mess, but the Vikings D let Brian Hoyer hang 3 TDs on them last week.  Throw in serious jet lag and we've got ourselves a miserable situation in London for two 0 - 3 teams.  I can't say I have a lot of confidence in this pick, but I think the Pittsburgh defense will have little trouble shutting down a very one-dimensional Vikings offense and thus buy a lot of opportunities to put points on the board.

Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) at Cleveland Browns - Last week was unpredictable fun for the Browns, but they'll have a hard time repeating against a defense really hitting its stride in the Bengals.  Cincy takes another step forward in the division on Sunday.

Indianapolis Colts (-8.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars - The Colts were one of the few charitable teams to give Jacksonville a win last year.  Now that they can watch themselves on the Red Zone channel in the process, I don't see that happening again.

New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) - I'm still struggling with some cognitive dissonance that the Giants are really this bad.  Heck, the number of sacks and turnovers New York has coughed up so far is more than a little reminiscent of Matt Cassel's 2 - 14 Chiefs last year.  In a terrible division, the Giants might still ultimately have a chance but not this week with Justin Houston licking his chops.

Washington Redskins (-3) at Oakland Raiders - It's a shame what kind of game this could be if Terrelle Pryor was guaranteed to be healthy and if Robert Griffin was more than a shadow of his 2012 chi.  I really liked Pryor's resilience despite getting smacked around at Mile High on Sunday, but assuming he doesn't play next week, the window of opportunity is open for Griffin to get a little bit of much-needed confidence back.



So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 7 - 9
Season Record: 32 -16