Quick Snaps: NFL Playoff Predictions and Preseason Roundup

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After all that waiting and slogging through the doldrums of summer sports programming, at long last we are a mere 1.5 days away from the start of the 2013 NFL season.  Tomorrow, I'll kick things off with the regular season cycle of game picks and recaps, but first I have to back up my foolish win loss predictions with playoff projections and talk about the meaningless preseason for 600 words or so.  Here goes:

It Came From the Preseason: 5 Questions

1) Who in the gang of four will be a king maker this year?  Last season's class of rookie/second year QBs was unprecedented in making a seamless transition from college to the big leagues.  Now a sophomore slump looms in the realm of possibilities in 2013.  Andrew Luck and RGIII face potential challenges in the number of nobodies catching and/or running the ball while Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson will have to work around key injuries by finding new playmakers on offense.  In my estimation, this gang's continued success depends heavily on who can make a star out of those nobodies year in and year out.  See Tom Brady and Drew Brees for reference.

2) Poor Tebow?  Eh, on the one hand, I get what overkill it would be to rejoice in Tebow's [hopefully] final departure from a sport he hardly deserved to play in the first time around.  On the other hand, I should have never doubted the calculating, vacuous soul of Bill Belichick in acquirng this guy in the first place. Call me a conspiracy theorist, but how convenient was it that the Pats took Timmy off the market only to cut him right at the moment when nobody--not even the reeling Jets or Bills--could pick him up on waivers?  We owe this evil genius the next year of our lives, which are now almost free of lazy media non-stories about a truly unremarkable player.

3) What's your take on the NFL concussion settlement?  Per reader Charlie, I've been mulling over the recent $765 million settlement the NFL reached with 4,500 retired players experiencing brain trauma.  That adds up to $170,000 per player if you don't have a calculator in front of you, but it's stickier than it sounds.  The NFL can pay out the settlement over 20 years while it's busy collecting $200 Billion in revenue over that same period of time.  That's a drop in the bucket compared to providing all players with legitimate health care coverage in their retirement while the league continues to draw profits hand over fist.  As a football fanatic, I recognize that I'm certainly part of the problem.  So let this be but an acknowledgement that there is still much work to do right by those who are suffering and will suffer long-term effects of a brutal sport. 

4) Whose stock is going down?  A lot has happened since I established my win-loss predictions for the year, and I fear some overestimation is in order.  Two teams that I have on my radar here are the Dolphins (pred. 9 - 7) and Steelers (pred. 10 - 6).  Even though it's just the preseason, the Dolphins sure don't look like a dream team yet, especially on offense.  The Steelers have plenty of sleeper potential on average, but I'm surprised that they cut Jonathan Dwyer while Le'Veon Bell is still weeks out from taking snaps.  As steady as Ben Roethlisberger is, he's not built to throw 50 attempts per game, and that could mean a slow start.  It also goes without saying that the Raiders (pred. 5 - 11) will be far worse than even I anticipated.

5) Whose stock is going up?  I feel fairly confident at this point that the Ravens (pred. 8 - 8) won't skip too many beats despite the roster churn this offseason, and the Browns (pred. 5 - 11) look like a much more well-oiled machine than I would have anticipated.  I'm tempted to jump on the Eagles bandwagon, but the thing still looks a bit gimmick-y to be true over the course of 16 games.

Lady Blitz Playoff Predictions

And finally, the playoff predictions I will obsess over and recalibrate multiple times over the next four months.  But since you're asking:

AFC Playoffs

Seeding
1. (bye) Denver Broncos
I can quote verbatim the rationale I gave the supposed #1 Patriots last year: "Things are looking up for a team that has a deep bench and a schedule personifying Snuggles the Bear."

2. (bye) New England Patriots
Despite woes in the receiving corps and the curse of dropping Tebow, even a middling Patriots team with a new chip on its shoulder is better than 90% of the AFC.

3. Houston Texans
The Texans have a real shot at climbing up the food chain yet again this year, but it'll take some new energy on offense.  Schaub is serviceable but he's no Brady or Manning.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers
Would that I could put the Bengals or Ravens in this position now.  Even so, don't count out the Steelers with a very manageable schedule and roster rejuvenation coming from a smart front office.

5. Kansas City Chiefs
They fooled me once when I had the Chiefs winning the division this time last year, but Matt Cassel and Romeo Crennel were a far cry from the potential Alex Smith and Andy Reid have together.

6. Cincinnati Bengals
The sky's the limit with the talent on this team, but the Bengals will need to win in big divisional games and in January to make the leap in the Marvin Lewis-Andy Dalton era.

Wild Card Round
Bengals over Texans, Chiefs over Steelers

Divisional Round
Patriots over Chiefs, Broncos over Bengals

AFC Championship
Patriots over Broncos - I think the world could use at least one more high stakes Brady v. Manning head to head, don't you?  But given Peyton's historical record in the playoffs and against Brady, this one's already a self-fulfilling prophecy.

NFC Playoffs

Seeding
1. (bye) San Francisco 49ers
The Niners continue right where they left off with a Lombardi in their sights.  Kaepernick lights up defenses across America while the San Francisco defense allows nothing of the sort from opponents.

2. (bye) Green Bay Packers
While the rest of the NFC top brass eat into one another's win totals, the Packers have their healthiest and most balanced season to date since Aaron Rodgers took over, a scary proposition for the rest of the conference.

3. Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta runs an unstoppable vertical passing attack that more than makes up for any inconsistencies on defense or the running game.

4. Washington Redskins
Now that RGIII is almost certain to be back in the saddle in Week 1, he mounts an elite passing attack that's a bit safer but just as effective in the pocket.

5. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle may well have more total wins than a couple division winners this year, but they'll likely try to play spoiler from a wild card seat, just like that miserable 7 - 9 wild card game in 2010 that we must never speak of again.

6. New Orleans Saints
Sean Payton is back and ready to punish all who would try to stymie one of the most prolific offenses in football.  That rebuilding defense, though, puts the Saints in doubt of doing more than eking into January.

Wild Card Round
Saints over Falcons, Seahawks over Redskins

Divisional Round
49ers over Saints, Packers over Seahawks

NFC Championship
Packers over 49ers - Anything could happen in a game like this, and aren't we all hoping a game like this happens in January?  Looking in from September, the odds are certainly in the Niners' favor, but the Packers have been a little too quiet in the last couple of years and I like what Eddie Lacy is cooking for that running game. 

The 2014 Super Bowl
Packers over Patriots  - The execs at Fox would give me my own island if I could will the two best quarterbacks in the game today to face off in the Meadowlands next February.  I'm hopeful that we get a shoot out for the ages in the blizzard-like environs these two teams have thrived in for decades.  But at the end of the day, the Packers will prevail after two years of premature playoff exits and some lucky defensive breaks.