Week 4 Picks for Every NFL Game

So many questions and anxieties going into Week 4.  Inquiring minds want to know, are the Colts really that good or are the 49ers really that bad?  Can the Bears' opportunistic defense and Peyton Manning's passing game sustain these levels of dominance for another 13 games?  Will it be the Steelers or Vikings who finally put a notch in the win column?  Can Lady Blitz reclaim a level of respectability after a rough 7 - 9 week in the picks?  I sure hope so, but at least I'm not the Giants.  Here we go:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints (-6.5) - Another undefeated team will fall when the dust settles from this Lady Blitz Game of the Week.  The Saints look like they're getting back to vintage aerial form while the Dolphins have proven they can hang with [2012] playoff contenders like the Colts and Falcons.  This could be a shootout if Ryan Tannehill has another fourth quarter like last week, but New Orleans tends to put on the fireworks at the Superdome in prime time.

Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Houston Texans - Given that both of these teams have a good shot at the playoffs this year, this game eked onto the Top Shelf.  But talk about a bad time for the Texans offense to go sputtering.  The Seahawks defense has allowed a paltry 9 points per game so far in 2013, and over half of those were donated to the Jaguars in garbage time last week.  I don't see Seattle budging for the likes of Matt Schaub despite the early kick off time in Houston.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3) - Remember when the Bears were 7 - 1 last year?  They're sure looking a lot like that healthy, opportunistic and well-rounded team now.  The Lions are arguably the best offense Chicago will have faced through Week 4, and playing at home indoors could make it harder for the Bears to slow down a decent set of skill players.  Nevertheless, Chicago has roughly two shut-down defenders for every major offensive weapon in Detroit's arsenal, and I love the way that Aaron Kromer-led offensive line is holding up for Jay Cutler.

Dallas Cowboys (-2) at San Diego Chargers - What to do with this game, which ought to be a good one.  The Cowboys have played well enough to be 3 - 0 against three so-so to awful offenses.  The Chargers have also played well enough to be 3 - 0 (though they are 1 - 2) with only late game breakdowns holding them back.  Can the anti-clutch Tony Romo find some mojo against one of the most anti-clutch teams in the league?  I'm hesitantly banking on it.

New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons (-2) - This may end up being a Has Been Top Shelf game between two teams that are looking more mortal than they have in years.  With all of the injuries the Pats and Falcons now need to overcome, it could end up being a boxing max between two amputees.  But these coaches and QBs are a prideful and competitive bunch, and I think they'll leave everything on the field on Sunday.  In what could be a close one, I think the Falcons have the edge, trying to avenge a tough loss in Week 3 with a return home.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

San Francisco 49ers (-3) at St. Louis Rams - Soul searching, thy name is the 49ers. I can't imagine how tense things have to be right now in Jim Harbaugh's locker room with a short week away from home and that whole medicated tire-burning affair.  Whether they come out on top this week, the 10-day break ought to do San Francisco some good in figuring out what the heck to do with sudden vulnerabilities at receiver and linebacker.  But the Rams weren't a good match up for the fully loaded Niners last year, and they sure have a window of opportunity here to gain some ground in the NFC West while their rivals are down.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Buffalo Bills - The Ravens are really starting to click with a rejuvenated and more coordinated defense than we saw in Week 1.  The Bills, on the other hand, have had their fun but still have too many inconsistencies on the roster to do more than jockey with the Jets for third place.  With the hope that E.J. Manuel continues to make things at least watchable, I hope this game gives us 2 - 3 quarters of back and forth banter before a decisive Baltimore win.

Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) - So Josh Freeman is finally riding the pine after a disastrous 2.2 seasons since his anomalous 2010 banner year as the Bucs’ QB. This game won’t be a cakewalk for either team despite the lineup change given that both defenses have looked solid to date, but I can’t imagine rookie QB Mike Glennon getting it done against the Honey Badger & company. The Cards get to steal one away from home against a team in turmoil.

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-3.5) - I'm still a little disbelieving that the Titans could easily be 3 - 0 right now.  I'm a whole lot more disbelieving that the Jets are also sporting a 2 - 1 record, but kudos to Rex Ryan for weathering the media cluster-abyss-vortex-tsunami in New York and getting his team more focused than we've seen in a long time.  But if I'm playing the odds, Tennessee's defense will be too much for Geno Smith and a lackluster bunch of RBs.

Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos (-10.5) - Guess who already has 12 TDs in three weeks and still manages to complain about hosting one of the worst defenses in the league on a short week?  No matter.  The Broncos should have this game handily since that defense can bring the same kind of disruptive style to the Eagles that the Chiefs did a whopping 1.5 weeks ago.  Still, in hopes of a wild and crazy high-scoring affair, I'm giving this game a Well Drink bump. Interesting science experiment: how long can Philly keep up the no huddle theatrics in the thin Denver air?  I say 2.5 quarters.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings - Mark my Madden-esque words: The team that wins this game is the team that plays the team that wants it least.  The Steelers' offensive line is a hot mess, but the Vikings D let Brian Hoyer hang 3 TDs on them last week.  Throw in serious jet lag and we've got ourselves a miserable situation in London for two 0 - 3 teams.  I can't say I have a lot of confidence in this pick, but I think the Pittsburgh defense will have little trouble shutting down a very one-dimensional Vikings offense and thus buy a lot of opportunities to put points on the board.

Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) at Cleveland Browns - Last week was unpredictable fun for the Browns, but they'll have a hard time repeating against a defense really hitting its stride in the Bengals.  Cincy takes another step forward in the division on Sunday.

Indianapolis Colts (-8.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars - The Colts were one of the few charitable teams to give Jacksonville a win last year.  Now that they can watch themselves on the Red Zone channel in the process, I don't see that happening again.

New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) - I'm still struggling with some cognitive dissonance that the Giants are really this bad.  Heck, the number of sacks and turnovers New York has coughed up so far is more than a little reminiscent of Matt Cassel's 2 - 14 Chiefs last year.  In a terrible division, the Giants might still ultimately have a chance but not this week with Justin Houston licking his chops.

Washington Redskins (-3) at Oakland Raiders - It's a shame what kind of game this could be if Terrelle Pryor was guaranteed to be healthy and if Robert Griffin was more than a shadow of his 2012 chi.  I really liked Pryor's resilience despite getting smacked around at Mile High on Sunday, but assuming he doesn't play next week, the window of opportunity is open for Griffin to get a little bit of much-needed confidence back.



So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 7 - 9
Season Record: 32 -16

Week 3 Recap and Other Football Things You Should Be Reading

I should have seen it coming.  In fact I did prophecy that 14 - 2 last week was too good to be true, and now I'm posting my second-ever sub-0.500 picks record on this blog at a measly 7 - 9. 

I may have gone 43% but the Saints are 3 - 0.  And my fantasy team featuring Eli Manning and/or Colin Kaepernick at QB (a combined 10 points this week) may have been a foregone conclusion, but the Saints are 3 - 0.  And the rest of the NFC South is 2 - 7.  And the rest of the NFC leaders from 2012 (49ers, Packers, Falcons and Redskins) all have losing records.  Life is good, my friends.  Life. Is. Good.  Now for the other good stuff:

Week 3: The Good Stuff

The AFC Turnaround - An inherent bias that I have--that has served me well for a few years, by the way--is that the AFC is no match for the NFC.  It sure did bite me in the behind this week in the picks, but kudos to the AFC for going 6 - 2 in inter-league play.  This includes the Browns' and Colts' improbable wins away from home against the Vikings and 49ers, respectively as well as the Dolphins and the Bengals proving they are for real.

Andy Reid's Revenge - Or more appropriately, the rise of a new defensive power that just plain neutered that Eagles spread offense we were fawning over two weeks ago.  It takes a lot to shut up a rabid pack of Philly faithful, but Kansas City pummeled this Thursday night crowd into apathy by forcing 5 turnovers and 7 three-and-outs.  Does anyone else get the distinct feeling that Chip Kelly will be transitioning to the SEC under the cover of night if the rest of this season doesn't go so well?  Then again, given that Michael Vick has a 1-year contract I might be going a little overboard.

The Colts' Guts - A lot of attention was given to the 49ers this week for how Colin Kaepernick and Jim Harbaugh would respond after an ugly loss in Seattle last Sunday night.  After all, Harbaugh had never lost two consecutive games as a Niners coach and Kaepernick had not lost at home since he took the starting job less than a year ago.  You may be asking yourself after this week what's wrong with San Francisco, but that would undersell what the Colts did this week as 10-point underdogs in Candlestick.  Andrew Luck didn't have the flashiest performance against his former Stanford coach, but there was no need with the running game and defense firing on all cylinders.  Indy held the allegedly explosive Niners to 250 total yards and 7 points.  That is pretty darn hard to do outside of CenturyLink Field.

Nailed It!  My Best Week 3 Prediction - Well, beggars can't be choosers I guess.  Go figure the pick I felt least sure about ended up making me look slightly less ridiculous this week:

• Per my anxiety that I won't be able to scratch the surface of 14 - 2 again this season, this game really could go either way in my opinion... Dallas has the offensive chops to keep this one out of St. Louis' reach, and should Romo wake up on the right side of the bed that day, the Cowboys are the more talented team.

Week 3: The Bad Stuff

A Giant Nadir - I'm not sure anyone could have anticipated a worse week for the Giants than their first two of the 2013 season, but here it is. New York is already -9 in turnovers and Eli Manning was sacked a redrankulous 7 times on Sunday.  He couldn't even give Team Bakery Special one freaking garbage time touchdown just to save a little face.  What's more, the Giants are sporting a league-worst 38 points allowed per game, giving the woeful Redskins something to look forward to if things don't improve.  The upside?  At least Tom Coughlin is already turning to the ultimate totem of season-ending futility, Curtis Painter.  The last time Painter got to drive a team into the ground they ended up with Andrew Luck.  Perhaps the Giants will drown-ey for Clowney this season?

The Texans' Smoke-and-Mirrors Defense - It's no secret that I've been hoping the Texans will become a new AFC power as the Mannings, Bradys and Roethlisbergers of the world get a little longer in the tooth.  A big reason for that is Houston's high-profile defense that was so unorthodox and opportunistic... for the first part of last season.  But they've given up 20 or more points in 9 of their last 12 games, and it's finally time for me to take off the rose-tinted glasses when it comes to Houston.  To be fair, the Texans' lopsided loss in Baltimore this week wasn't exactly a Flacco-laden barn burner with the Ravens scoring TDs on defense and special teams, but they certainly weren't doing any favors for a team that can't sustain drives consistently or keep opponents out of field goal range.

Shanked It!  My Worst Week 3 Prediction: The Dolphins might really have a shot this year, y'all.  Heck, I'll buy 'em shots for beating the Falcons on Sunday, who almost got a win with a well-rounded performance in Miami but couldn't close the deal late in the game:

• The fair-weather fans will be out in full force at Sun Life Stadium to cheer on the not-Marlins while LeBron is on vacation, but I think it ends when Matt Ryan comes to town.  This one is still well within reach for the Dolphins if they can get ample pressure on Ryan while the pocket is shaky, but they haven't played a team this good yet during their "streak."

Week 3 Feature: Other Football Things You Should Be Reading

...Because friends don't let friends read Bleacher Report.  I promise the "woe is me" will end when I pick my sad little predictin' self off the ground and get back to respectability one day.  But while I search for a paper bag for my head, here are some other football-related things you should consume in the meantime:

• Dave Dameshek - It's no "C'mon Man," but I enjoy Dave Dameshek's recurring video series The Shek Report (formerly The Shame Report) featuring the week's football lowlights.  It's a nice little pick-me-up during the unbearable non-football days between Tuesday and Wednesday.  Even more entertaining but more intermittent is the N "if" L animated shorts where Dameshek creates alternate endings to some of the biggest "what ifs" in the game's storied history.  So if you've ever wondered what would happen if the Tuck Rule had never been invented or if Drew Brees had gone to Miami instead of New Orleans--with Ace Ventura jokes incorporated in the process--this is your guy.

• Mike Silver - Poor Silver has been relegated to the lower ranks of NFL.com after a long and successful stint at Yahoo Sports, but this guy sure can pick 'em.  In fact, he was the very best in the biz last year according to people who pay attention to these things.  More importantly, he was the journalist trailblazer who realized Raiders owner Mark Davis was the living, breathing plot to Tommy Boy.  What's not to love?

• Nate Jackson - Most of these guys are just civilians like this 5-foot blogger with two thumbs, but there's no better football writer from the trenches in my opinion than former pro tight end Nate Jackson.  Jackson is as honest and eloquent as they come when shedding insight on the complicated world of professional sports, especially for those outside of the Pro Bowl limelight, and the physical and financial risks that come with the career.  I'm salivating over his new book, but you can check out an excellent archive of his posts on Deadspin over the years here in the meantime.

• Deadspin Trolling Bleacher Report and Grantland - I admit it, I frequent Grantland from time to time and often enjoyably so.  They were mighty generous in their coverage of the Grizzlies and Memphis by extension in the Spring, and I like Bill Barnwell's often overly elaborate stats and hyper-logical take on play calling for reward over risk because that is a job I'd like to have.  Anyway, that's all well and good but when it's not revealing scandalous imaginary girlfriends or Brett Favre's, erm, cellular activity, Deadspin is pretty much the best at trolling other sites that you know you shouldn't really like in the first place. Especially when Bill Simmons is involved.  It's like your sardonic eye-rolling best friend in a high school movie there to affirm how mindless jock culture (Bleacher Report) is and how overly self-important nerds (Grantland) can be.

Week 3 Picks for Every NFL Game

After two weeks of big-hype games, we're starting to cool off for a bit with the slate of games this weekend.  In fact, there are no 2 - 0 teams facing each other and only two divisional match ups, but you know that won't stop me from spending a gorgeous Sunday indoors.  Also destined to cool off is my picks record since I eked out a blistering 14 - 2 (88%) last weekend in no small part thanks to Drew Brees/the Buccaneers, Jay Cutler and E.J. Manuel.  The last time I missed just two games, I crashed back to a pitiful 5 - 9 the subsequent week, so I have a slight mute on my own horn.  Nevertheless, with an inappropriate level of confidence, here are my Week 3 picks:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles (-3) - Per the scheduling mediocrity I mentioned above, there's no true Lady Blitz Game of the Week this time around.  Nevertheless, the wildly different playing styles and relative early success of the Chiefs and Eagles should make for an interesting game.  Did you hear Andy Reid will be back in Philadelphia? Wearing a shade of red that might return Eagles fans to their old Santa-hating ways?  I hope the Chiefs slog it out at the line of scrimmage with an excellent defensive front, but I just can't see Alex Smith engineering a comeback the way Robert Griffin and Philip Rivers tried to/did with this kind of bang-bang Philly offense.

Houston Texans (-2.5) at Baltimore Ravens - If Baltimore breaks through this season with the new roster, this game could be that starting place.  I have a feeling it'll be ugly either way as both of these teams have looked a little less than polished so far, but Houston has the edge until Joe Flacco rediscovers that playoff aerial magic again.

Green Bay Packers (-2) at Cincinnati Bengals - Even though these teams are at 0.500, there are many reasons to feel optimistic this season if you're a Packers or Bengals fan.  The Packers' offensive line may be reason for concern since Aaron Rodgers has already been sacked 6 times this year, but the formidable Bengals pass rush wasn't too formidable against the notorious lines of the Bears and Steelers in previous weeks.  Thus, I expect No. 12 to have another big game in Cincy and get Green Bay back on the winning side for the remainder of the season.

Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins (-2.5) - Don't look now but Miami is one of 8 yet-undefeated teams this year.  You can Google plenty of '72 Dolphins jokes now if you want to.  That means the fair-weather fans will be out in full force at Sun Life Stadium to cheer on the not-Marlins while LeBron is on vacation, but I think it ends when Matt Ryan comes to town.  This one is still well within reach for the Dolphins if they can get ample pressure on Ryan while the pocket is shaky, but they haven't played a team this good yet during their "streak."

Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers (-10) - This should really be a Well Drink kind of game, but like I said, it's slim pickins' this week.  I am eager to see how Andrew Luck--and, what's that? Trent Richardson?!--do against a punishing defense away from home and even more eager to see how Colin Kaepernick responds after his worst professional outing to date in Seattle last week.  But when it comes to this half of the Gang of Four, Kaepernick has the edge and a better supporting cast at home to get back on track.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

San Diego Chargers at Tennessee Titans (-3) - I'm a little smitten with the Chargers' offensive productivity right now, even if it is just two weeks into the season.  The Titans defense has also been flying under the radar and much improved so far from last year.  I imagine one or both of those statements might not hold up by the time December rolls around, but I do think Philip Rivers will ultimately out-duel Jake Locker despite another early kickoff for San Diego.

St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) - Per my anxiety that I won't be able to scratch the surface of 14 - 2 again this season, this game really could go either way in my opinion.  The Rams have the kind of defensive muscle to get to Tony Romo fairly easily, and that usually doesn't end well.  On the other hand, Dallas has the offensive chops to keep this one out of St. Louis' reach, and should Romo wake up on the right side of the bed that day, the Cowboys are the more talented team.

Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints (-7.5) - This game is more attainable for the Cardinals than most people think.  The Saints offense has sputtered through two weeks of thin victories, and Drew Brees is in the middle of one of those streaks of mind-numbing picks.  Arizona has been able to hang with middle-of-the-pack teams through opportunistic defense and a more competent offense than in recent years, so we'll find out if the Saints are just that.  I still like 'em at home for an early game though.

Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins (-2) - Not to be dramatic, but this is a statement game for Washington as I see it.  Although the first two weeks looked awful for last year's non-Colts Cinderella story, at least the defense should have a better handle on Detroit than it did on Aaron Rodgers or the big Eagles offense reveal.  Robert Griffin, on the other hand, doesn't look ready for prime time, and I don't expect the Lions to be forgiving there.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-2.5) - Who would've thought this could be a moderately anticipated game back in August when Kevin Kolb and Mark Sanchez were still a thing?  It may not be the most perfectly executed or high-scoring affair, but one of these teams will lead their miserable fanbases on for another week when the dust settles.  I'm betting on the more well-rounded Bills.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings (-6) - Trent Richardson vs. Adrian Peterson would have been an intriguing byline to this game, but now that Cleveland has clearly already given up on another season after just two. freaking. games., it's time for Minnesota to get the W that has alluded them most painfully for the first two weeks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots (-7) - Hoo boy, this could be ugly given these two teams' vastly underwhelming performances to date this season.  Or, it could be confidence-building redemption for one team and yet another reason to fire Greg Schiano for the other.

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (-1) - Who the heck knows what to do with this game?  Both of these teams are bursting with wasted potential up to this point, and there's hardly any way to know who will want it less on Sunday.  Carolina's secondary has become a liability, so I expect Eli to air it out from time to time to avoid the fumbling woes of the Giants' first two weeks.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks (-19.5) - Holy point spread, Pete Carroll!

Chicago Bears (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers - Oh gambling Steelers fans of America, how you drag the point spread down to hilarious levels.  I know it's at Heinz Field and all, but the Bears should have a field day with this anemic Pittsburgh offense in prime time... while the rest of us tune into Breaking Bad.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-15) - After our Sunday night beatdown, we will conclude Week 3 with a Monday night beatdown so that you can watch the Talking Dead follow up that you DVRed instead of waiting it out through Low Winter Sun the previous night.



So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 14 - 2
Season Record: 25 - 7

Week 2 Recap and 5 NFL Teams Already Hitting the Panic Button

We’ve got another heart-pounding week of electrifying fantasy heroes, closing-minute drives and even our first overtime of the season to make up for not one but two rare lightning delays in the NFL world.  Personally, I’m thanking my lucky stars that the Saints are somehow 2 - 0 in the division instead of 0 - 2 at the moment.  A win is a win and no one is more thankful than Drew Brees or Tom Brady right now about that.  Let’s go ahead and kick off our Week 2 recap and our weekly feature, 5 Teams Already Hitting the Panic Button:

Week 2: The Good Stuff

The Rivers-McCoy Real McCoy - Puns.  I don’t love ‘em but I try.  The AFC West might get a little more crowded than you think this year.  All four teams are already 0.500 or better, even though two have gotten to play the Jaguars already.  Anyway, despite the Chargers’ heartbreaking  fourth quarter whiff last week with the Texans, I am loving how solid Philip Rivers looks under Coach Mike McCoy’s leadership so far.  Remember, this is the coach that got Tebow a playoff win in Denver.  In two games, Rivers already has 7 TDs to one interception with a 116 passer rating, a feat considering how rough the last few years of Norv have been on the guy.  Kudos to the Chargers for pulling off a hard fought victory in Eastern Time on Sunday.

Seattle's Best Slugfest - I didn’t catch this one with the lightning delay and my East Coast bedtime, but I was wowed by the stat line in the hotly anticipated (but quite underwhelming) bout between the 49ers and Seahawks on Sunday night.  It’s a wonder that a team could win at all--much less by 26 points--when their QB completes only 8 passes, but it ain’t so bad when your defense forces 5 turnovers and holds the high-flying 49ers to a measly 200 yards.  Just glad I had the foresight to rest Kaepernick on Fantasy Team Bakery Special this week, not that it helped against Aaron Rodgers - yeesh.

Last Minute Heroics - There were lots of fireworks from the typical QB demigods this week, especially the ever-consistent and somehow overlooked Aaron Rodgers.  But part of the glossing over was because Rodgers had a rich guy’s problem, locking up the W against the Redskins in about a quarter and a half on Sunday.  Much more exciting for the rest of us were the many stunning game-winning drives that made for an enjoyable day all around.  In particular, Jay Cutler, EJ Manuel and Drew Brees made it look easy after many trials and tribulations during the first 59 minutes of play, getting their teams to the go-ahead score in the waning seconds of the game.  There’s no better feeling if you’re cheering for the winner there.

Nailed It!  My Best Week 2 Prediction - I had one of those rare, stellar picking weeks this time around with a proud 14 - 2 record to show for myself.  I notched a few wins that were more of a gamble than this one, but I’m giving myself a golf clap for prophesying that Seattle fans would break the crowd noise world record and declaw Colin Kaepernick on Sunday night:

• The Twelfth Man is going to be in record-breaking crowd noise form on Sunday night, and if keeping Cam Newton to 125 yards last week is any indicator, the Seahawks won’t be skipping a beat on defense when Colin Kaepernick comes to visit.

Week 2: The Bad Stuff

The Buccaneers' Sloppy, Sloppy Joe, erm, Losses - There are tough breaks and then there are shameful losses like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are exemplifying so far this season.  Of course, for selfish reasons I shouldn’t complain and just send Kicker Ryan Lindley a fruit basket for giving the Saints a stolen victory.  Even so, my heart goes out to the few who still go to Raymond James Stadium every week hoping that this exceptionally talented roster will have a breakthrough.  Instead, they have seen two blown leads in the final minute of play, over 20 penalties for 220 yards and a pathetic passer rating of 63 for Josh Freeman.  I think I can hear Greg Schiano’s head rolling just now...

Suddenly Sputtering Offenses - Speaking of the above Tampa game, boy am I thrilled the Saints defense has new life so far in 2013.  Although there’s reason to hope things will get better, the NOLA offense is looking mighty suspect so far since Sean Payton’s return with some mind-blowing picks by Brees and very little running game to speak of.  The same can be said for the struggling Patriots who are down to Stevan “Butterfinger” Ridley in the backfield and receivers who wouldn’t draw a crowd in the Mountain West Conference.  Lest we forget 3) the Redskins who look like they’re in serious trouble unless Robert Griffin can get out of his own head and make some safe option reads from time to time; and 4) Joe Flacco’s regression without three deep-threat receivers and Dennis Pitta to keep the Ravens’ offensive production up.

The NFC East.  All of It. - Boy do I hate having to make any predictions about the teams in this conference.  One minute, they’re on fire in a four-way race for NFC dominance; the next minute, they’re staring down a mistake-riddled 2 - 6 record with question marks everywhere.  Per the above, RG3 is looking worse for the wear without any playing time in the preseason after having to face the lightning-fast Eagles and Packers for two weeks.  Meanwhile, the Eagles’ defense can’t seem to handle the quick snap spread pace of that offense, coughing up an average 30 points over two games.  The Cowboys... well, you know the story there.  If Jason Garrett isn’t shooting you in the foot, Romo and/or Bryant certainly will on a regular basis.  Finally, this may be the worst Giants team we’ve seen in a very long time with Eli tossing 7 picks in two games and a potentially huge RB bust in David Wilson.

Shanked It!  My Worst Week 2 Prediction: As I mentioned above, my ears have perked up when it comes to the Chargers’ offense so far this year.  Congrats to San Diego for hanging with an Eagles team that looked nearly impossible to beat in a track meet last week:

Chip Kelly and Mike McCoy have already given their new teams the look of contenders in a few short weeks.  But considering how impossible it continues to be for the Chargers to hang on to a significant lead, I can’t imagine they’ll have any success slowing down the Eagles enough to compete this week in Eastern Time.

Week 2 Feature: 5 Teams Already Hitting the Panic Button This Year

My only advice to the casual NFL fan around this time of year is not to get too caught up in what you see so far this season.  Teams rise and fall with more games under their belt, changing injury statuses, and trends in the strength of schedule, so we’re a long way from locking down playoff seeding to say the least.  Still, there are some troubling elements a foot for many teams that had high hopes going into this season (see, no Jaguars here) who could well take a giant step back.  Here are 5 Teams Already Hitting the Panic Button This Year:

Cleveland Browns
Why Worry?  The supposedly improved Chudzinski/Norv-led Browns offense is looking anything but reformed so far this season with a total 16 points and 1 TD over the first two games.  Now, aging sophomore QB Brandon Weeden will be out with a hand injury for a spell, making it harder to believe the Browns will finally turn the corner this year.

Reasons to Relax? The Browns are still well within reach of the AFC North title, and favorites Baltimore and Cincinnati are looking a bit more uneven than many surmised going into September.

Is It Serious?  I’m not sure to be honest.  The Browns defense looks like the real deal, and Trent Richardson is loaded with potential to anchor a team that shouldn’t be so pass-heavy anyhow.  Still, they'll have to get past the rest of the North as well as the Packers, Bears, Chiefs and Patriots and find some wins in there to look different.

Washington Redskins
Why Worry? The Washington offense that looked so efficient just a few months ago has failed to deliver in just about every sense so far this season.  RG3 is squeamish inside and outside the pocket and throwing off of his back foot far too often.  In other words, the former dual threat is hardly a single threat at the moment.

Reasons to Relax? Griffin is rusty with plenty of room for improvement as the season goes on.  Plus, the ‘Skins are still only a game back from the rest of the struggling NFC East with very winnable games against the Lions and Raiders next up on the schedule.

Is It Serious? I’d say so.  Washington still has games against the Chargers, Broncos, 49ers and Falcons on the schedule, which will be impossible to surmount if the offense doesn’t get its act together.  Despite picking these guys to win the division in the preseason, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them miss the playoffs altogether.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Why Worry? The Steelers’ offensive line has already imploded yet again before the season got going.  Ben Roethlisberger is not the kind of QB you want throwing 50 times a game, and the running game is showing few signs of life without Rashard Mendenhall or a healthy Le’Veon Bell.

Reasons to Relax?  Here's the theme of the day - the Steelers are just a game back from the rest of the uneven AFC North with plenty of games to turn it around. If Bell ends up being worth the hype, Pittsburgh can look respectable against its fellow 3rd seed AFC opponents.

Is It Serious? Absolutely.  With this kind of offensive line, there’s a Vegas line out there somewhere for the week Roethlisberger goes down with another significant injury.  And I’m going to conjecture that the Heinz Field faithful don’t want to see Bruce “Who?” Gradkowski under center.

New England Patriots
Why Worry?  But this team is 2 - 0, you say.  Yes, but only by the grace of God, so there’s a sign He didn’t really care about Tim Tebow’s NFL career anyway.  As much as I believe in Tom Brady’s ability to make most receivers look like Pro Bowlers, the Pats have barely eked out games against the woeful Bills and Jets and the offensive productivity is a shell of what it has been for the whole of the Brady-Belichick era.

Reasons to Relax?  You could definitely make the argument that the Pats’ offense will improve with time since Brady had relative milliseconds to find a rhythm with the third string during the preseason and Gronk will return soon.  Plus, they still own the AFC East until proven otherwise.

Is It Serious?  This all depends on how the rest of the division plays out.  The Bills and Jets have been surprisingly competitive in these two weeks while the Dolphins are sporting a respectable 2 - 0 alongside New England.  I think as the season goes on, the Pats will be fine in the battle of attrition, but the postseason may be another story.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Why Worry?  Remember all that stuff I said about 20 penalties for 220 yards and terrible quarterbacking?  That can’t be undone by an otherwise respectable defense and running game if things get worse than they already are in the Bucs’ locker room.

Reasons to Relax?  Tampa’s roster is absolutely loaded with the likes of Darrelle Revis, Vincent Jackson, Doug Martin, Dashon Goldson and Carl Nicks.  With two fewer mistakes, this team could have been 2 - 0 and nowhere near this list going into Week 3.

Is It Serious?  I think there’s an 80% chance of mutiny in the locker room the way things are going.  If Revis walks and Freeman’s motivation turns from getting paid next year to getting Schiano fired, these Bucs are cooked.

Week 2 Picks for Every NFL Game

It will be hard to top the thrills, chills and safeties of Week 1.  In fact, we’ve got quite a bell curve distribution of Top Shelf, Well Drink and House Punch games this time around.  Without further adieu, here are my picks for Week 2:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Denver Broncos (-4.5) at New York Giants - We’ve got ourselves a classic sibling rivalry for the Lady Blitz Game of the Week, and it should be a lot more fun than the upcoming Rob/Rex Ryan square off in the Meadowlands.  The Giants would love nothing more than to get the bad taste of a 6-turnover disaster out of their mouths this week, but Big Brother Peyton owns this series and has an extra three days to rest and prepare after a historic 7-TD opener.

Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers (-7.5) - The Packers could well crack the no-huddle whip after seeing the Redskins get punished by Chip Kelly’s lightning speed offense last week.  I’m hopeful this one is a bit more neck and neck than the spread would suggest, but RG3 still looks a far cry from 100% and the Packers’ defense looked more competitive in San Francisco last week than they’ll probably get credit for... until this week.

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (-3) - It’s hard to say which of these two teams is for real going into this week.  The Chiefs had their way with the Jaguars last Sunday, but that was the Jaguars.  The Cowboys came out on top against the Giants but it took all six of those turnovers to put the game away.  Considering how stout the Chiefs’ pass rush is and how Tony Romo’s ribs are probably still screaming from that New York DE sandwich, I like Kansas City proving the turnaround is real at home.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3) - On a neutral field, I’d definitely consider switching my vote to the Niners and likely will when these juggernauts face off again at Candlestick.  But the Twelfth Man is going to be in record-breaking crowd noise form on Sunday night, and if keeping Cam Newton to 125 yards last week is any indicator, the Seahawks won’t be skipping a beat on defense when Colin Kaepernick comes to visit.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) - Talk about two surprisingly enjoyable teams to watch so far this year.  Chip Kelly and Mike McCoy have already given their new teams the look of contenders in a few short weeks.  But considering how impossible it continues to be for the Chargers to hang on to a significant lead, I can’t imagine they’ll have any success slowing down the Eagles enough to compete this week in Eastern Time.

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) - These two teams were mighty fortunate to walk away with wins in Week 1, so this game should be a great lesson in adjustment for two pretty evenly matched teams.  If anyone has an edge though, clearly Andrew Luck hasn’t lost a step in bringing the Colts back from the dead in the fourth quarter.  He's just too hard to topple at Lucas Oil.

Carolina Panthers (-3) at Buffalo Bills - Man, my crystal ball is cloudy on this one.  On paper, the Panthers should have this one in the bag, but the Bills surprised everyone with a close loss to the Patriots.  Call me crazy, but I'm going to roll the dice on Buffalo getting it done after a heartbreaker last week - the Panthers offense has to prove it can fly on its own without Rob Chudzinski before I'm a believer.

St. Louis Rams at Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) - Falcons fans should be a little more wary about this game than it would appear at the outset.  Atlanta’s offensive line really struggled throughout the preseason and against New Orleans’ less than enviable defensive personnel last week.  St. Louis has a much more talented front seven to contend with, anyhow.  Even so, the Falcons are the kind of team I almost never expect to drop two games in a row, and Sam Bradford will have to have a career kind of game to keep up with Matt Ryan.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-6) - Lovie who?  For all of my languishing over the ex-coach’s controversial exit from the Bears organization, the Chicago defense is doing just fine these days when it comes to generating QB pressure and turnovers.  That’s bad news if Christian Ponder has a Christian Ponder kind of outing at Soldier Field, and I’m betting he will.

New Orleans Saints (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The seats are getting a bit steamy already for Greg Schiano and Josh Freeman in Tampa this season, and things aren't looking good in the locker room, to make matters worse. Every now and then, controversies like Tampa's can whip a downtrodden team into shape, but it sure is a lot harder to do when you don't have any faith in your coach.  Luckily for the Saints, they don't have that problem and should continue to improve on offense with Sean Payton back in the groove.

Detroit Lions (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals - What's not to love about a Honey Badger vs. Megatron matchup on Sunday?  This may be the best untapped title for a Godzilla sequel I've ever heard, by the way.  Anyhow, I'm siding largely with Vegas this week, but I like the fight these Cardinals showed against the Rams last week on offense and defense.  I think they can give the high-flying Lions a run for their money with Bruce Arians calling the shots.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7) - If the entire Pittsburgh game plan on Monday night doesn't consist of hot read screen passes, I'll be shocked.  Somehow the Steelers managed to get the short end of the stick yet again with devastating injuries to the offensive line, which won't serve them well against a ferocious Bengals pass rush.  Cincy ought to take the divisional reins pretty easily at home this week.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-12) - Even though this doesn’t look like that exciting of a game, as can be said for most Thursday night revenue generators, I’m surprised that the point spread is so high.  The Pats struggled mightily against Buffalo last Sunday, even on offense, and now Danny Amendola’s injury gives Tom Brady even less to work with.  Still, Bill Belichick won’t let New England gift wrap a game for the Jets the way the Bucs did last week.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-9) - Good for that Tennessee defense last week in shutting down the favored Pittsburgh Steelers.  Of course, the Steelers' offensive line couldn't be in worse shape, which won't be the case for a Pro Bowl-filled Texans line.  Houston has no reason to be intimidated for the home opener.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) - I think the Cleveland Browns have plenty of potential to improve this season, but the Ravens will be all too eager to avenge a rough outing in Denver and soak it up in the home opener that should have happened last week.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-5.5) - This is one of those games that you’re sort of happy exists simply because it assures one of these groups of fans an early win.  I probably still would have picked the Raiders if Matt Flynn was starting, but Terrelle Pryor makes it a whole lot easier to cheer for Oakland while the Jaguars start looking for condos in L.A.

So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 11 - 5
Season Record: 11 - 5

NFL Week 1 Recap and Reasons for Every Team to Be Optimistic This Year

For reasons that include and extend beyond the start of the football season, life is good, people.  I'm not sure we could have asked for a better Week 1 with lots of nailbiters, coaching/rookie/QB debuts, playmaking fireworks, rookie mistakes, and a whopping four games with safeties.  Let's get started with the good stuff and the bad stuff:

Week 1: The Good Stuff

Peyton's Calvary - You can chalk up a portion of Peyton Manning's historic 7-TD night to a couple of factors beyond his control.  The new-look Ravens defense had some serious uncharacteristic breakdowns and got easily winded after a late start at Mile High, which is a brutal place for the returning Super Bowl champs to have to play in the first place.  Despite all of that, you just cannot argue with 7 TDs.  The man was simply on fire, acting as the kind of no huddle drill sergeant that makes you run til you lose control of important bodily functions.  Just as important for fantasy owners everywhere, Manning got every ounce out of his entire receiving corps with 2 TDs a piece for Wes Welker and Thomases Demaryius and Julius. 

Worst-to-Middle-of-the-Pack Defenses - I must of course add the standard caveat that we're operating with a sample size of one game a piece, but Packers, Saints and Titans fans have to be pleased with the way their defensive squads, beleaguered in 2012, stepped up on Sunday.  The Titans held the struggling Steelers to 9 points and less than 200 net yards and also notched 5 sacks and 2 turnovers.  The Saints held the prolific Falcons to 17 points and notched 3 sacks and 2 turnovers with hardly any blitzing.  And although the Packers still came out controversially on the losing end, Green Bay has to see a silver lining in holding the 49ers to under 100 yards rushing after allowing over 300 on the ground in January. 

Surprising QB Debuts - As you'll note in my Week 1 picks, I didn't have a lot of faith in a number of games that ended up being much more competitive than anticipated.  In fact, all but two games (Ravens/Broncos and Chiefs/Jaguars) were competitive until the final minutes of the fourth quarter.  We owe this in no small part to three surprisingly resilient first-time starters at QB--Terrelle Pryor, EJ Manuel and Geno Smith--who had great if not perfect showings against the much more heavily favored Colts, Patriots and Buccaneers, respectively.  Cue a Bad News Bears montage, stat!

Nailed It!  My Best Week 1 Prediction: It may not be a prophecy for the ages, but the Lions definitely brought the Vikings back to Earth in stifling fashion this week:

• This game is a bit murky to me since the Vikings and Lions are a bit closer to one another's level than their wildly variant 2012 records would indicate.  On a whim that what goes up must come down, I like the Lions' front four shaking down AP and forcing Christian Ponder into some bad decisions. 

Week 1: The Bad Stuff

Gigantic Turnover Woes - For once, Coach Tom Coughlin's rabid sewer rat look was totally apt for the duration of an awful opener against the Cowboys.  Coughing up a mind-numbing six turnovers on Sunday night, the Giants haven't been this self-destructive since Plaxico Burress put himself on the PUP list back in 2008.  What's more, New York's implosion was a total team effort.  Eli threw three picks, fantasy darling RB David Wilson had two fumbles, and a special teams breakdown turned a fair catch punt return into a red zone possession for the Cowboys.  You know it's bad when the Jets are the Week 1 golden boys in New York.

Not-So-Special Teams - In addition to the Giants above, a number of teams had some truly Division III issues on special teams this week.  You know former special teams coach John Harbaugh must have had nightmares for days after the Ravens' Brynden Trawick took his own teammate--and rare useful receiver--Jacoby Jones out of the game and for the next month during a punt return.  Then we had usually sharp Darius Reynaud giving himself a safety instead of a touchback on the first Titans possession of the game.  Special teams in the NFL are like household plumbing - you don't even think about it when its functioning properly but it's all you can talk about when things get ugly.

RG:( - What is it with the NFC East anyway?  These four teams suffered 12 turnovers in Week 1.  Poor Robert Griffin, that Sunday night performance was hardly the return his fans were hoping for.  In addition to bobbling a hand off for a turnover, RG3 had some uncharacteristic passing errors that made me wonder if he's a little too bought into the hype he earned for a near-flawless rookie season.  This guy seems humble and hard working enough to turn it around before it's too late, but the end of that first half was hard to watch in particular. After getting sacked and pressure on nearly every snap, Griffin's slumped shoulders let the crowd know he was ready to go home, uncharacteristic indeed. 

Shanked It!  My Worst Week 1 Prediction: Per those surprising QB debuts I mentioned in the Good Stuff, shame on me for underestimating the Bills and Jets and/or overestimating the Patriots and Buccaneers this week, along with the rest of you:

• Having Geno Smith start against the Bucs' Super Friends secondary makes this an automatic win for Tampa in spite of Josh Freeman.  And it's going to be just as ugly as Miley Cyrus twerking on an oil-soaked baby seal.
• Speaking of ugly routs, the Patriots couldn't have asked for a more ideal ramp up after a turbulent offseason than with the Buffalo "QB Depth" Bills and EJ "It's just a flesh wound" Manuel.  Poor Bills. I know I'm just kicking sand in the face here, but this game might as well be on C-SPAN.

Week 1 Feature: Reasons for Every Team to Be Optimistic This Year

The beauty of Week 1 is that every team and fan can delude themselves into high hopes for the season.  At best, you had a solid win or surprising upset.  At worst, you're a game away from 0.500 and have another 15 weeks to prove yourself worthy.  After an especially competitive opening week in the NFL, here's my rapid fire take on why every team can be optimistic at this point:

Bears - Your offensive line is finally pro-worthy

Bengals - You have a poor man's Megatron to keep your offense competitive

Bills, Jets, Raiders - You rolled the dice on a young hybrid QB and came up much more respectable than anticipated

Broncos - Your QB already locked up the 2013 MVP in Week 1

Browns, Steelers - Somehow you are still tied for first place in the AFC North with no offensive line or running game to speak of

Buccaneers - You will finally get to dump your deadweight QB in 16 more weeks

Cardinals - Your Larry Fitzgerald actually makes Carson Freaking Palmer look viable

Chargers - You made Philip Rivers look vintage in Mike McCoy's new system
 
Chiefs - Even though it was the Jaguars, you put on an all around clinic of efficient passing, steady rushing, and stingy and opportunistic defense.  Beware, AFC.

Colts, Seahawks - You did just enough to keep the skeptics at bay regarding sophomore slumps

Cowboys - Your healthy Dallas D under Monty Kiffin's leadership looks like the real deal

Dolphins - You won a game by two possessions despite 20 total yards rushing

Eagles - You delivered on the hype of Chip Kelly's new system in the NFL

Falcons - Your move to replace Michael Turner with Steven Jackson is already paying dividends

49ers - Your scrambling QB is good enough in the pocket to stay healthy all season

Giants - Had you kept the game to 5 turnovers instead of 6, somehow you still could have won

Jaguars - Clearly the fact that you started Blaine Gabbert this week shows your commitment to getting Johnny Manziel #1 overall next year

Lions - You've already made Reggie Bush look as good as he ever will

Packers - Yet again, you can blame the refs for any future shortcomings in the NFC playoff seeding

Panthers - Your defense held the high-octane Seahawks to a mere 12 points.  Now about that offense...

Patriots - You gave Bill Belichick a reason to put the fear of God in a team in transition while still eking out the W

Rams - You have a tight end worthy of a Gronk- or Graham-style season for the ages

Ravens - You may not be able to hang with Peyton Manning, but Flacco can definitely hang with Andy Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger and Brandon Weeden

Redskins - Defensively, you found impressive ways to adjust to a Gonzo Eagles offensive scheme in the second half

Saints, Titans - Your defense easily cleared the bar for very low expectations

Texans - You showed the kind of resiliency in your fourth quarter comeback that was lacking last year
 
Vikings - Despite all the attention on defense, your MVP is still worth at least 50% of your PPG

Week 1 Picks for Every NFL Game

Fact: there will be football happening every single Sunday for the next four months or nineteen weeks to be exact.  Without further adieu, here are my Week 1 picks (squee!) for the 2013 NFL season:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) - It's deja vu all over again with the Packers and 49ers earning the Lady Blitz Game of the Week pick in another Week 1.  The Kaepernick-Rodgers duel at quarterback should be fun, but all eyes are on that Green Bay defense stepping up after getting trounced at Candlestick last January.  I think it'll be a close one, or at least a closer one, than these teams had in the 2013 playoffs, but the 49ers still look like the better team at this point.

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-7.5) - There's virtually no chance that this game will match the excitement of that Hail Mary double-OT thriller in the AFC divisional round.  We can still hope though, right?  Despite Vegas' clear siding with the Broncos, I'm on the fence with this one.  The Broncos have taken a hit on defense with Von Miller and Champ Bailey out, and Baltimore looked like it was in mid-season form in August.  Still, the house tends to win in Denver.  The Ravens will bounce back at home next week.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-3) - I've been waiting ever since they announced this one in April for September 8th to come.  The Falcons-Saints rivalry has gotten more vicious with age, and what better litmus test for these two teams to seize control of the division early on than this rumble in the Superdome.  Although Atlanta still looks like the NFC South's alpha dog, I think Sean Payton's return to the sidelines will give the Saints--and Saints fans--a serious edge.

Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears (-3) - We've got quite an offensive-defensive clash going on in Chicago, but these teams have switched sides in the blink of an eye.  The Bengals found a deep corps of pass rushers led by Geno Atkins last year, while the Bears have turned an offense-heavy about face in the offseason.  We know how Jay Cutler does under pressure, so I expect that Cincy front seven to give him fits all the way to victory.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) - This game is always a toss up with the Cowboys ruining the reigning champs' home opener last September only to be undone by Dez Bryant's fingernail later on in Arlington.  So I'm taking a shot in the dark that the Giants will fool us all in the early season into thinking they're contenders with an emphatic Week 1 victory here.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (-3) - Robert Griffin is back and the Eagles are all in on Chip Kelly's high-octane offensive attack.  We could have an excellent shoot out on our hands, but I'll also be paying attention to how 'Skins DC Jim Haslett prepares his squad--now with Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan back in tow--as guinea pigs for Philly's new offense.  Regardless, I expect Griffin to have a lights out return and for the Eagles to have a few growing pains with so much transition taking place.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) - Is this matchup really worthy of Well Drink status?  Probably not, but it's been an interesting and understated rivalry for almost a decade so we'll give these two rebuilding teams the benefit of the doubt.  And when I say "these two," I really mean Pittsburgh will get the benefit of the doubt and probably dominate the floundering Titans.

Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers - The Pete Carroll vs. Cam Newton Swagger Bowl is almost here!  The 2012 Seahawks ended up being what some thought the 2012 Panthers would be.  Now the 2013 Panthers are hoping to get halfway as decent as the 'Hawks with more experience, confidence and turning Luke Kuechly loose in the middle of the field.  Still, there is but one Kuechly with Carolina in comparison to one of the best secondaries in football that will disorient and terrorize Cam Newton in Week 1.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-5.5) - As the owner of a fantasy team with both Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson, I get to win this week either way as long as these two don't trip over one another's ACLs during the coin toss.  This game is a bit murky to me since the Vikings and Lions are a bit closer to one another's level than their wildly variant 2012 records would indicate.  On a whim that what goes up must come down, I like the Lions' front four shaking down AP and forcing Christian Ponder into some bad decisions.

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams (-4.5) - I so want the Cardinals to prove me right about how mediocre the Rams are going to be this year with their awesome defense.  The problem is, they've let a whole lot of that defense go in the offseason while St. Louis has been stockpiling receivers that together form the broad side of a barn for Sam Bradford.  The Rams put one more notch in Carson Palmer's reasons to retire on Sunday.

Houston Texans (-3.5) at San Diego Chargers - Weird fact: The Texans have never won a game against the San Diego Chargers.  Of course, a very sad stretch of that time was spent with David Carr and Sage Rosenfels eroding that fragile fanbase, but now Houston gets to prove itself better than an aging Philip Rivers and a brand new coaching staff.  Although this is technically a well drink game for these teams' power rankings, I'm probably not going to stay up on Monday night.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) at New York Jets - Despite the Return to Revis island subplot, it's hard to get excited about these two struggling teams going head to head. Having Geno Smith start against the Bucs' Super Friends secondary makes this an automatic win for Tampa in spite of Josh Freeman.  And it's going to be just as ugly as Miley Cyrus twerking on an oil-soaked baby seal.

New England Patriots (-9) at Buffalo Bills - Speaking of ugly routs, the Patriots couldn't have asked for a more ideal ramp up after a turbulent offseason than with the Buffalo "QB Depth" Bills and EJ "It's just a flesh wound" Manuel.  Poor Bills. I know I'm just kicking sand in the face here, but this game might as well be on C-SPAN.

Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars - I'm actually excited about [hopefully] seeing the Chiefs do well this year.  Lord knows the AFC could use some fresh blood after years of Patriots-Manning-Steelers-repeat.  This week, Alex Smith will show Blaine Gabbert how it's possible to go through a whole game without throwing mind-numbing picks for under 200 yards and still win.

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (-1) - How the speculatively mighty have fallen.  One minute the Dolphins are going to take Tom Brady and the whole AFC by storm.  Four preseason games later, a majority of people think they'll lose to the Cleveland Browns.  The Cleveland Browns.  I drank the Kool-Aid and projected Miami at--gulp--9 - 7 this year, so I'll suddenly be taking a chance on them here.

Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-9.5) - I'm going to hold out one iota of hope that the Raiders might not be as bad as I'm expecting now that Terrelle Pryor is going to pull a Russell Wilson over Matt Flynn again as the last-minute starter.  Still, that one iota won't be outweighing the overwhelming chances that a more experienced Andrew Luck will carve up Oakland's defense in front of a home crowd for an early eastern time zone game.

Quick Snaps: NFL Playoff Predictions and Preseason Roundup

***Blogger's Self-Congratulatory Note: We are officially at my 100th post and a moderately successful year of NFL social media!  The official blog hit count is just over 5,000, and probably  half of those aren't spam.  Thanks for reading!***

After all that waiting and slogging through the doldrums of summer sports programming, at long last we are a mere 1.5 days away from the start of the 2013 NFL season.  Tomorrow, I'll kick things off with the regular season cycle of game picks and recaps, but first I have to back up my foolish win loss predictions with playoff projections and talk about the meaningless preseason for 600 words or so.  Here goes:

It Came From the Preseason: 5 Questions

1) Who in the gang of four will be a king maker this year?  Last season's class of rookie/second year QBs was unprecedented in making a seamless transition from college to the big leagues.  Now a sophomore slump looms in the realm of possibilities in 2013.  Andrew Luck and RGIII face potential challenges in the number of nobodies catching and/or running the ball while Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson will have to work around key injuries by finding new playmakers on offense.  In my estimation, this gang's continued success depends heavily on who can make a star out of those nobodies year in and year out.  See Tom Brady and Drew Brees for reference.

2) Poor Tebow?  Eh, on the one hand, I get what overkill it would be to rejoice in Tebow's [hopefully] final departure from a sport he hardly deserved to play in the first time around.  On the other hand, I should have never doubted the calculating, vacuous soul of Bill Belichick in acquirng this guy in the first place. Call me a conspiracy theorist, but how convenient was it that the Pats took Timmy off the market only to cut him right at the moment when nobody--not even the reeling Jets or Bills--could pick him up on waivers?  We owe this evil genius the next year of our lives, which are now almost free of lazy media non-stories about a truly unremarkable player.

3) What's your take on the NFL concussion settlement?  Per reader Charlie, I've been mulling over the recent $765 million settlement the NFL reached with 4,500 retired players experiencing brain trauma.  That adds up to $170,000 per player if you don't have a calculator in front of you, but it's stickier than it sounds.  The NFL can pay out the settlement over 20 years while it's busy collecting $200 Billion in revenue over that same period of time.  That's a drop in the bucket compared to providing all players with legitimate health care coverage in their retirement while the league continues to draw profits hand over fist.  As a football fanatic, I recognize that I'm certainly part of the problem.  So let this be but an acknowledgement that there is still much work to do right by those who are suffering and will suffer long-term effects of a brutal sport. 

4) Whose stock is going down?  A lot has happened since I established my win-loss predictions for the year, and I fear some overestimation is in order.  Two teams that I have on my radar here are the Dolphins (pred. 9 - 7) and Steelers (pred. 10 - 6).  Even though it's just the preseason, the Dolphins sure don't look like a dream team yet, especially on offense.  The Steelers have plenty of sleeper potential on average, but I'm surprised that they cut Jonathan Dwyer while Le'Veon Bell is still weeks out from taking snaps.  As steady as Ben Roethlisberger is, he's not built to throw 50 attempts per game, and that could mean a slow start.  It also goes without saying that the Raiders (pred. 5 - 11) will be far worse than even I anticipated.

5) Whose stock is going up?  I feel fairly confident at this point that the Ravens (pred. 8 - 8) won't skip too many beats despite the roster churn this offseason, and the Browns (pred. 5 - 11) look like a much more well-oiled machine than I would have anticipated.  I'm tempted to jump on the Eagles bandwagon, but the thing still looks a bit gimmick-y to be true over the course of 16 games.

Lady Blitz Playoff Predictions

And finally, the playoff predictions I will obsess over and recalibrate multiple times over the next four months.  But since you're asking:

AFC Playoffs

Seeding
1. (bye) Denver Broncos
I can quote verbatim the rationale I gave the supposed #1 Patriots last year: "Things are looking up for a team that has a deep bench and a schedule personifying Snuggles the Bear."

2. (bye) New England Patriots
Despite woes in the receiving corps and the curse of dropping Tebow, even a middling Patriots team with a new chip on its shoulder is better than 90% of the AFC.

3. Houston Texans
The Texans have a real shot at climbing up the food chain yet again this year, but it'll take some new energy on offense.  Schaub is serviceable but he's no Brady or Manning.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers
Would that I could put the Bengals or Ravens in this position now.  Even so, don't count out the Steelers with a very manageable schedule and roster rejuvenation coming from a smart front office.

5. Kansas City Chiefs
They fooled me once when I had the Chiefs winning the division this time last year, but Matt Cassel and Romeo Crennel were a far cry from the potential Alex Smith and Andy Reid have together.

6. Cincinnati Bengals
The sky's the limit with the talent on this team, but the Bengals will need to win in big divisional games and in January to make the leap in the Marvin Lewis-Andy Dalton era.

Wild Card Round
Bengals over Texans, Chiefs over Steelers

Divisional Round
Patriots over Chiefs, Broncos over Bengals

AFC Championship
Patriots over Broncos - I think the world could use at least one more high stakes Brady v. Manning head to head, don't you?  But given Peyton's historical record in the playoffs and against Brady, this one's already a self-fulfilling prophecy.

NFC Playoffs

Seeding
1. (bye) San Francisco 49ers
The Niners continue right where they left off with a Lombardi in their sights.  Kaepernick lights up defenses across America while the San Francisco defense allows nothing of the sort from opponents.

2. (bye) Green Bay Packers
While the rest of the NFC top brass eat into one another's win totals, the Packers have their healthiest and most balanced season to date since Aaron Rodgers took over, a scary proposition for the rest of the conference.

3. Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta runs an unstoppable vertical passing attack that more than makes up for any inconsistencies on defense or the running game.

4. Washington Redskins
Now that RGIII is almost certain to be back in the saddle in Week 1, he mounts an elite passing attack that's a bit safer but just as effective in the pocket.

5. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle may well have more total wins than a couple division winners this year, but they'll likely try to play spoiler from a wild card seat, just like that miserable 7 - 9 wild card game in 2010 that we must never speak of again.

6. New Orleans Saints
Sean Payton is back and ready to punish all who would try to stymie one of the most prolific offenses in football.  That rebuilding defense, though, puts the Saints in doubt of doing more than eking into January.

Wild Card Round
Saints over Falcons, Seahawks over Redskins

Divisional Round
49ers over Saints, Packers over Seahawks

NFC Championship
Packers over 49ers - Anything could happen in a game like this, and aren't we all hoping a game like this happens in January?  Looking in from September, the odds are certainly in the Niners' favor, but the Packers have been a little too quiet in the last couple of years and I like what Eddie Lacy is cooking for that running game. 

The 2014 Super Bowl
Packers over Patriots  - The execs at Fox would give me my own island if I could will the two best quarterbacks in the game today to face off in the Meadowlands next February.  I'm hopeful that we get a shoot out for the ages in the blizzard-like environs these two teams have thrived in for decades.  But at the end of the day, the Packers will prevail after two years of premature playoff exits and some lucky defensive breaks.

2013 Win-Loss Predictions: NFC West

For your amusement after no less than 3 simulations of 256 regular season games because I am that awesome with my free time, here are my 2013 win-loss predictions for every NFL team.  We now conclude with the vaunted NFC West, which has sky-high expectations going into 2013.  With ample free agency activity in key positions, all four teams have Cinderella potential this year as they face the ambitious NFC South and arguably sweep-able AFC South.

Arizona Cardinals

Best Case Scenario: The Cardinals take a page from their more successful divisional foes and let an elite defense and improved running at the line of scrimmage be their guide.  Turning a new page once again with Larry Fitzgerald to make him look good, Carson Palmer finally rediscovers his early-career mojo and gets Arizona to 0.500.

Worst Case Scenario: The offensive line rebuild is still far from complete, which means bad news for trying to keep Palmer functional and upright.  It takes but one breakdown against a Justin Smith, Chris Clemons or Chris Long to put Palmer in crutches and Arizona in QB bench hell for yet another season.

Bellwether Match Up: The Cardinals and Rams may be fighting for scraps all season while the heavily favored Seahawks and Niners are gunning for the head of the table.  So Arizona will want to start things off on the right foot in St. Louis for Week 1.  It should be a treat to see how the Cards' exceptional pass defense fares against Sam Bradford's improved arsenal of receivers.

Prediction: Although Arizona's on the right trajectory for the long term along with the rest of this very competitive division, I'll need to see Coach Bruce Arians turn miracles on offense to be a believer this year.  The Cards' collective talent is mightier than their 6 - 10 record.

San Francisco 49ers

Best Case Scenario: With their first full season of Colin Kaepernick under center, the 49ers go on an unstoppable tear.  Vets like Frank Gore, Patrick Willis and Justin Smith continue to anchor the team on both sides of the ball, and San Francisco glides to the Super Bowl so many predict them to win this time.

Worst Case Scenario: There's no doubt the Niners are in trouble if Kaepernick goes down with his scramble-heavy style.  This team has benefited heavily in the past two years from having a lot of luck in the injury department that won't repeat forever.  Having to call Colt McCoy's number or deal with a key defensive injury like Justin Smith could be devastating despite the Niners' stacked roster, lest we forget those two games Smith missed last season in which San Francisco gave up 76 points to the Patriots and Seahawks.

Bellwether Match Up: The Niners start the year with a one-two punch against the Packers and Seahawks.  Coming out of it 0.500 or better will set San Francisco up very nicely for an easy first half of the season and give the team a clear path to a #1 seed.

Prediction: Like so many others, I have high hopes for the 49ers this season and I expect them to live up to expectations as long as Jim Harbaugh's neck veins don't explode.  With incredible balance and talent all over this roster, the 49ers can get to at least 12 - 4 despite the heated divisional and conference competition around them.

St. Louis Rams

Best Case Scenario: QB Sam Bradford finally has the talent around him to justify his hefty rookie contract and #1 overall pick status.  Tayvon Austin and Jared Cook help stretch St. Louis's field and a couple RB breakouts fill the void Steven Jackson left behind to help this team compete against the explosive offenses of the NFC West and South.

Worst Case Scenario: Despite notable offensive acquisitions, it turns out that Bradford is the problem and can't compete with said explosive offenses.  It's good news for fantasy owners who bet on Greg "Legatron" Zuerlein but bad news for a Rams team that continues to prove itself middle of the road in most categories on both sides of the ball.  With Wild Card hopes dashed, St. Louis starts looking for new blood under center.

Bellwether Match Up: A great litmus test for whether or not Sam Bradford's new offense can hang with the big boys is in Week 2 when the Rams visit the Falcons.  Not only will St. Louis get to compete against defector Steven Jackson, the team will also try its hand in a track meet of seam routes with a new set of receivers.

Prediction: I'm not as high on the Rams' turnaround and playoff potential this year as others are.  St. Louis will have a tougher schedule and a lot of new pieces to put together, especially without the kind of guaranteed rushing performance Jackson gave them for so many years.  It feels like an 8 - 8 season and bigger hopes placed in 2014 to me.

Seattle Seahawks

Best Case Scenario: The Seahawks go one better than the rival 49ers with dominant talent all over the roster and one of the best homefield advantages in football.  Seattle gets right back to putting up Tecmo numbers on the scoreboard and has a much better shot at a Lombardi than they could have ever hoped for with Matt Hasselbeck.

Worst Case Scenario: The hype proves to be too much for Russell Wilson & co. to repeat in full this season.  Although they still come out of the scrum looking good for the long haul, the gigantic expectations for the Seahawks make it hard for Pete Carroll to keep a legitimate chip on his team's shoulders, just like the good old days at USC.

Bellwether Match Up: The Seahawks welcome the 49ers to town in Week 2 for an NFC West rumble to remember.  The stakes are huge for both teams, so don't expect another 42 point rout, but you better believe Seattle is chomping at the bit for this Top Shelf home opener.

Prediction: The sky's the limit for this extraordinarily talented team, but I think it'll take another year or two for the Seahawks to usurp the 49ers entirely.  Even so, Seattle is in prime position to get to 10 - 6 and play wild card spoiler in January.