Week 9: The Good Stuff
- Andrew Luck's Establishment - RG3 may have grabbed all of the early headlines in this year's rookie QB round-up, but I have more than a feeling we're going to end the season on an Andrew Luck high. In his first eight weeks of professional play, Luck has already won as many games as Peyton Manning did his rookie season and the Colts did last season combined. And boy did he do it in style against the Dolphins, racking up a new rookie record-high 433 yards in passing. He's made a house into a home in Indianapolis.
- Chicago's Historic Defense - We've had a lot of talk this season about the defensive powerhouses in the AFC North (Steelers, Ravens) and the NFC West (49ers, Cardinals, Seahawks), but nobody's playing like the Bears right now. Through the first half of the season, Chicago has already amassed 24 turnovers and already broken the season record for INTs returned for touchdowns (now 7) in just eight games. Now the stats nerds might be wringing their hands knowing that these kinds of trends can be very hard to sustain because there's a certain amount of luck involved, but nobody except for the Packers has had an answer yet, and I can't wait for Part II of that rivalry at Soldier Field this year. If they can keep this up, it's hard to picture anyone in the NFC including the Falcons being able to top them.
- Nailed It!: My Best Week 9 Prediction - It's been harder to get good picks against the spread now that we have half a season under our belts and teams are revealing themselves more fully. So I'm pleased that the Panthers were able to muscle their way to their second win of the year against the Redskins, even if that now means the Saints are back at the bottom of the NFC South barrel:
- "Despite the front office turmoil and abysmal record, the Panthers have been on the cusp of winning against better teams over the past couple of weeks... Neither of these teams is playing inspired defense this year, which could make for quite the shootout if Carolina can find a little of that old offensive magic. I'll take a misguided chance on them once again this weekend."
- The Music City Miracle, Part II - Actually, this is probably the least harsh thing I could say about the Eagles' performance against the Saints last night, but how mind-bogglingly poor was Philly's execution on their own "Music City Miracle" kickoff return last night? If there is just one thing you have to take away from the original Titans play against the Bills in 2000, it's that you better not throw a freaking forward pass. That's it. That's literally all Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie had to do while Riley Cooper was playing superspy in the end zone and sprinting his way to what appeared to be a much-needed TD. Of course, all of this ended up being the least of the Eagles' continuing woes, not that this Saints fan in complaining. Philly allowed 7 sacks from the NFL's worst defense and only managed to put up 13 points on over 450 yards of offense and 5 trips to the red zone. In other words, they looked like the 2012 Philadelphia Eagles.
- Les. Freaking. Miles. - I know it's college football, which has next to no place here, but on behalf of the Lotz family's love for all things Louisiana football on a fairly slow NFL weekend, I'd like to say just how horribly LSU shanked a golden opportunity to crawl back into BCS relevance on Saturday night. Credit the players-- they did their very best to snatch victory from the jaws of Les Miles and looked very much in control in the second half against an otherwise unstoppable Alabama team. But Les Miles did not coach his team as though they deserved any credit. The Tigers ended up losing by 4 after a spectacular last minute drive by the Tide, but only after going for it on 2 fourth-downs well within field goal range (one on a 4th and 12) and trying another field goal 10 yards back from the kicker's longest FG of record, which ultimately put Alabama in position to score a touchdown late in the first half. In other words, there was as much as a 13-point swing hidden in Miles' atrocious decision-making that cost his team dearly. Now it looks like he'll be eating grass at home in January right where he belongs.
- Shanked It!: My Worst Week 9 Prediction - There's no denying the Steelers are the new Eagles for me. I am officially now 1 - 7 in picking their games this season:
- "In yet another Pittsburgh game I'm destined to shank, I think the Giants are the better team here, and they'll ultimately use the Steelers' banged up defense to their advantage in another close one at the Meadowlands."
Change has been a very certain characteristic of this NFL season. It definitely throws off the pictures of teams' successes and failures you've had in your head all summer. Luckily for us bloggers, we get to rewrite and rewrite and rewrite our projections when we run out of of other ideas and don't want to admit our wrongs. Here are my adjusted playoff predictions for January:
AFC Playoffs - Originally I picked the Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills to make the playoffs in the AFC, but even in this lackluster conference, they don't look like playoff contenders this time. They've been replaced with the Denver Broncos, Pittsburgh Steelers and Miami Dolphins.
Seeding
1. (bye) Houston Texans
The Texans still look like the most balanced and consistent team in the AFC, and the Patriots haven't taken nearly as much advantage of an "easy" schedule as I thought they would.
2. (bye) Denver Broncos
The Broncos' schedule gets easier and easier over the second half of the year and Peyton Manning is looking better and better. That's a scary combo.
3. New England Patriots
The Patriots have looked "vincible" at many points this season, and they've got a few tough matchups left on the schedule unless they can sort some more things out during the bye.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers
Not to bring up a sore subject, but Pittsburgh is playing like the Super Bowl Packers of 2010 these days. Despite the mounting injuries, they have stepped up nicely and Ben Roethlisberger is playing very well under the radar.
5. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens' schedule has been very forgiving as they try to tread water with injury woes of their own. That should get Baltimore to the playoffs, but they don't look good enough to compete with the Steelers with two head-to-head matchups still on the schedule.
6. Miami Dolphins
Surprise! The Dolphins get my last AFC playoffs spot in a photo finish with the Colts. Indy's going to be just fine in a year, but their schedule looks just a hair tougher than the Dolphins' schedule, and Miami has shown a lot more fight than I was planning to give them credit for.
Wild Card Round
Patriots over Dolphins, Steelers over Ravens
Divisional Round
Texans over Steelers, Patriots over Broncos
AFC Championship
Texans over Patriots
NFC Playoffs - This is much more of a shuffling of seeding than of teams. I replaced the Philadelphia Eagles with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers though.
Seeding
1. (bye) Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta probably won't make it to 16 - 0, but they could easily have a 14 or even 15 win season with the schedule ahead. It's just that albatross of January that looms...
2. (bye) San Francisco 49ers
Stay tuned - the 49ers go head to head with the Bears in two weeks, and that may well tell us who ends up with the 2-seed in the NFC. I like the 49ers chances at home.
3. Chicago Bears
I thought the Bears would be good this year, but not this good. Even though they currently hold second place in the NFC, it will take just 1 - 2 games without those insane takeaways and defensive scores to knock them a few pegs back.
4. New York Giants
The Giants still look like the best team in the NFC East and had the added blessing of all of their rivals also losing this past weekend. They'll do enough through the next seven games to stay right there.
5. Green Bay Packers
I wouldn't be surprised if the Packers end up on top of the Bears, but they're going to have to give Aaron Rodgers an Adderall to do it.
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Like the Dolphins in the AFC, this is my NFC gamble while also considering the Seahawks strongly. I like the Bucs' explosive offense and ability to win on the road a bit better than that of the still very respectable 'Hawks.
Wild Card Round
Bears over Buccaneers, Giants over Packers
Divisional Round
Giants over Falcons, 49ers over Bears
NFC Championship
49ers over Giants
The 2013 Super Bowl
Texans over 49ers
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