Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)
Important Disclaimer: I've provided three different scenarios for my pick based on what comes of the injuries to both teams' QBs between now and Monday night. I reserve the right to update my pick if any developments occur that could majorly impact the game between now and then. But even assuming both QBs are out of the picture for this one, we've got ourselves an excellent Lady Blitz Game of the Week that then only magnifies the critical role of two of the NFL's very best defenses. In Scenario 1 (where neither QB is cleared for play), I like the Bears. They've shown they can put plenty of points on the board without Jay Cutler, or the offense for that matter. In Scenario 2 in which both QBs are cleared to play, I like the 49ers-- they have a more prolific offense than Chicago and Alex Smith does not typically make the kind of mistakes the Bears need to keep pace. In Scenario 3 in which only one QB is cleared to play, I pick that team for its obvious competitive advantage. At the time of posting, it sounds like Alex Smith is on the up-and-up while Jay Cutler's still doubtful.
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-9)
An Andrew Luck victory over the Patriots in Foxboro this weekend would be at once stunning and not at all surprising. But while the Colts have earned key divisional wins on the road during the past month against the Titans and Jaguars, the Patriots are a different animal. New England's defense has been shaky, which could definitely be a problem, but this is a situation where I believe experience will win out in the end, and Tom Brady's just not ready to be overshadowed in the AFC yet.
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
I had this one picked for the Steelers before Monday night, but Ben Roethlisberger's contributions cannot be understated when it comes to Pittsburgh's comeback success this season. This annually significant, always entertaining rivalry game still merits a Top Shelf distinction for its history, but the Steelers are now roughly where the Ravens were when they got stomped by the Texans a few weeks ago: woefully unprepared to fill the injury gaps on the roster against a team hungry for AFC dominance.
Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
Were the Dolphins' collapse and/or the Bills' near-upset on Sunday just blips on the radar or a signal of where these teams are headed for the remainder of the season? This game sure just got a lot harder to pick that it would have seemed two weeks ago, but I'm going to go with the longitudinal record on this one. The Dolphins have shown they can shut down elite rushing games before this year, and forcing Ryan Fitzpatrick to throw will be key for their success this week. I hope they have a productive chip on their shoulders after that Titans rout...
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Detroit Lions
This may be Detroit's last gasp for playoff consideration with so many NFC teams vying for a wild card spot and two Green Bay bouts left on the schedule. Unfortunately, I don't see any situation where the Lions avoid getting swept yet again this year.
Hey, remember the last time the Chargers and Broncos played each other this season? You know the game where San Diego still couldn't close with a 24 - 0 lead? Well the Broncos are playing explosive football for two halves now and they get to do it before the "Tebow who?" home crowd at Mile High.
Dysfunction, they name is the Philadelphia Eagles. I'm keeping this one on the Well Drink shelf because it's still a good divisional rivalry between two similarly skilled quarterbacks... though it looks like Michael Vick is still seeing tweety-birds and out for Sunday. So the Redskins must be absolutely salivating for a win after a bye week and five straight games worth of blueprints for beating this reeling Philly squad. The big question is whether or not we'll be seeing any more of Andy Reid or Michael Vick after Week 11. I put the over-under at 48 hours.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) at Carolina Panthers
This is potentially a trap game for the hot Buccaneers since those divisional rivalries sure can be pesky. But I can't even image how rough the Carolina locker room must be right now. A Tampa win is another huge step towards playoff contention... Maybe they can knock the Falcons around a couple more times too before 2012 closes out.
New York Jets at St. Louis Rams (-3.5)
The Rams sure put up a good fight against the vaunted 49ers defense on Sunday thanks in large part to the smooth return of WR Danny Amendola, even if he apparently didn't brush up on the rulebook too much during his hiatus. The thing I like more about this Rams team is that pass rush. That pass rush against Mark Sanchez.
House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest
Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-10)
There's a slight chance Roddy White could beat himself here for the charity of the severely back-sliding Cardinals. And I do think the Falcons need to be careful against an excellent defense that has had some much-needed rest. Still, Arizona just doesn't have the kind of firepower on offense with or without Kevin Kolb to play against an angry Falcons team that is 18 - 3 after a loss under Mike Smith. Especially in the Georgia Dome.
Dallas may soon be nipping at the Giants' heels if things keep going the way they have in the NFC East lately. I think the Browns will have some fight in themselves too after the bye, but the Cowboys have a lot more talent and a lot more at stake not to screw this one up.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Andy Dalton's got to be feeling confident about righting the Bengals' ship after that decisive win against the Giants last week. Although Cincy still has an uphill climb back into playoff contention, this 3-week string with the not-so-scary part of the AFC West is a great start, especially against the still-hapless Chiefs.
New Orleans Saints (-5) at Oakland Raiders
Sigh. These are the kinds of games that New Orleans often loses to remind us they are still the Saints, and that makes me nervous. What doesn't make me nervous, however, is just how good New Orleans tends to get in November. They've won 13 straight games during this month of the season and are 19 - 6 overall in the Drew Brees era. Oakland on the other hand just lost to Joe Flacco's Ravens by 35 points.
It's still a little early to recycle my "two bye weeks" joke about playing the Jaguars, but that's essentially what the Texans have at home this week to recover more fully after an exhausting victory in Chicago last Sunday.
So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 10 -3 - 1*
Season Record: 94 - 51 - 1*
*How does one characterize tie games, anyway? What can I say, I'm a stat padder.
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