Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking
Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (-3)
This has become quite the intra-conference rivalry over the past few years that makes for a perfect Lady Blitz Game of the Week. Since that 2008 playoff bout that sent the Giants to the Super Bowl, we've seen a great matchup that has gone back and forth with twists and turns, usually (interestingly enough) to the visiting team's advantage. This time though, I like New York at home with more time to rest and prepare while Green Bay still picks up the pieces from its many injuries. One thing I'm hoping we'll be assured is fantastic quarterback play from two of the most competitive guys in the league.
San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) at New Orleans Saints
A reanimated rivalry from the days of the old NFC West comes to the Superdome this weekend, and it should be a wild ride regardless of the outcome just like it was in January. This could turn out to be a game of wishful thinking for Saints fans depending on what happens under center for San Francisco on Sunday, but I'm banking on 1) the Saints' continuing November hot streak; 2) challenges from the 49ers' short week and long travel; and 3) hopes that Colin Kaepernick's MNF performance was a flukey great start that won't repeat itself.
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-3)
The Redskins could walk away with the win in Dallas, and I'm certainly rooting for them to do so. But I think Rob Ryan's defense will have the edge against RG3, who's putting up a respectable rookie year but also fallible against solid defenses like this one.
New England Patriots (-7) at New York Jets
This is a surprisingly tough one given the Patriots' Gronk injury, the Jets' home field advantage on a short week, and both teams' strong showings this past weekend and in their first meeting earlier this season. These two coaches would love nothing more than to stomp the other's team into the Meadowlands turf, but I don't think a blowout is in order. On a whim that the Patriots are still a pretty good team and the Jets generally are not, I think New England squeaks by in a very close one.
Atlanta Falcons (-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This pick is just as much about the Buccaneers' inspired play of late as it is about the Falcons' recently exposed troubles. Obviously Julio Jones' health is a huge factor in the outcome of this game, but I also think the Bucs will play better at home than the Falcons will on the road along with the momentum changes at play.
Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations
Houston Texans (-3) at Detroit Lions
Make no mistake: this is a trap game for the Texans. They've crawled through the Soldier Field mud and a surprisingly intense overtime win against the Jaguars, and they have to be gassed. Even so, there's no denying Andre Johnson's abilities in just about every circumstance, and playing against the Lions' secondary is surely a favorable one.
Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts (-3)
These two teams could form a support group for enduring the Patriots' brutality earlier this season. I'm hopeful that the Bills' extra rest will make this a more competitive game than it would otherwise be, but the Colts should rebound nicely in front of the home crowd as they take another step toward the land of wild card bids.
I lucked out this past week in not paying enough attention to injury statuses to update my Bears pick. It sounds like Jay Cutler will likely play on Sunday, which should give Chicago a real edge at home. If he doesn't return though, expect the Minnesota Vikings to wear down that storied defense with Adrian Peterson while taking shots at one of those third string McCowns. With those kinds of extremes, expect an update from me if Cutler doesn't go.
Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Miami Dolphins
The hot streak hangover is pilling on in Miami, though I think there are glimmers of hope for next season in the maturation of the offense and a good defensive effort. Unfortunately for the South Beach hopefuls, the Seahawks coming off a bye are just to ferocious for the Dolphins to overcome right now. This will be another good road test for Russell Wilson and another nail in the coffin for a Miami playoff spot.
Baltimore Ravens (-1) at San Diego Chargers
As is par for the course for today's Ravens, this game comes down to which offense shows up in San Diego to a large extent. Baltimore has been battling critical injuries on defense all year and has risen to the challenge far more often than not with its second string picking up for its uneven offensive performance. Unfortunately, Ed Reed's one-game suspension looks to be too much for the Ravens to handle while Philip Rivers and company pick up a much-needed win at home.
House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest
St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)
Like Vegas, I'm not too sure about this game. The Cardinals' 0 - 6 streak is starting to feel just as idiosyncratic as their 4 - 0 start, and surely Ken Whisenhut isn't stupid enough to start his third string QB again. But maybe that's my point in picking the Rams here: Jeff Fisher just isn't that stupid.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Eagles don't win another game this season. Andy Reid might as well be reading his last rites every time he does a press conference, and Nick Foles is just not shovel-ready behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. The Panthers aren't exactly formidable competition, but they've done enough lately to show they can take advantage of worse teams.
Oakland Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-8)
The Raiders have given up 135 points, or 45 on average, during the past three games. Meanwhile, the Bengals offense is clicking on all cylinders at the right time to make a move in the AFC North against the teetering Steelers. You do the math.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) at Cleveland Browns
Even with Charlie Batch at the helm, the Steelers should still technically have this game, but I like the sneaky Browns for a good old-fashioned upset. They deserve it the way they've played in many a close loss this season.
It's hard to find two more divergent extremes in the league right now. Peyton Manning's Broncos look virtually unstoppable and the Chiefs do nothing but stop themselves from success. Historical note: we're almost to the one-year anniversary of the Chiefs' unlikely triumph over the 13 - 0 Packers. That might end up being the highlight from this season too for the Chiefs.
Tennessee Titans (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Hopefully the Titans are a little more vigilant about protecting this win now that Coach Mularkey has finally discovered that he's not legally required to start Blaine Gabbert every week. Of course, he could always post bond for Ryan Leaf to play backup to Chad Henne...
So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 12 - 2
Season Record: 106 - 53 - 1
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