Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants (-4.5)
Somewhat begrudgingly on a slow week in the NFL, this is our Lady Blitz Game of the Week between two storied, perennial Super Bowl contenders. The Steelers have started to look like a semblance of their old selves after suffering an upset to the Titans in Week 6, but they've been playing uneven, less experienced teams in Washington and Cincinnati. The Giants have been a fingernail away from defeat in close divisional matches during that same time, but they continue to find ways to win. In yet another Pittsburgh game I'm destined to shank, I think the Giants are the better team here, and they'll ultimately use the Steelers' banged up defense to their advantage in another close one at the Meadowlands.
The challenge with picking this game is that the Cowboys make mistakes and the Falcons do not. If that sounds like a John Madden brand of obvious statements, it's not meant to be. Assuming Atlanta has had the ball bounce its way more favorably than is probable with the converse being true for Dallas, we may soon be due for some regression to the mean for both of these teams. Plus, Dallas has a pretty darn solid record against then-undefeated teams deep into the season. In other words, bookmark this game for your Week 9 upset watch. But it sure is next to impossible not to pick the Falcons at the Georgia Dome the way Matt Ryan is playing, and I won't not pick them.
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Speaking of home field advantages, you just don't bet against the Seahawks at CenturyLink these days. Minnesota will slide just a little bit further back toward 0.500 on Sunday against Seattle's vaunted defense, but hopefully this will be an exciting game nonetheless between two up-and-coming competitors.
Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) at New Orleans Saints
Can you smell the mutual desperation in the air? The main difference between these two teams right now is that more people in the Eagles camp will be fired during or after this season than the Saints since Roger Goodell has essentially done that for them already. This really shouldn't be a Top Shelf game, but we have slim pickins' this week, so I'm hoping for a wild [if very sloppy] Monday night at the Superdome. As much as you and I both know who I want to win this game, I just can't see how Philadelphia doesn't hand off the ball to LeSean McCoy a grizillion times to sweep Michael Vick's woes under the rug and overtake a completely demoralized Saints defense by the third quarter or so. But to reference a quote I dare not type on this very family-friendly blog, this.
Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations
Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins (-3.5)
A Heisman reunion is upon us. Despite the front office turmoil and abysmal record, the Panthers have been on the cusp of winning against better teams over the past couple of weeks. The Redskins are hoping to get back on the horse after a few rough outings against teams that exploited their troubles in the secondary and pass protection. Neither of these teams is playing inspired defense this year, which could make for quite the shootout if Carolina can find a little of that old offensive magic. I'll take a misguided chance on them once again this weekend.
Miami Dolphins (-3) at Indianapolis Colts
It's strange to think, but one or both of these teams could be the real deal when all is said and done in Week 17. With a couple of exceptions, the Dolphins and Colts have been in every game they've played this season, so we're in for a battle of wills on Sunday. For the second consecutive week, I'm going to have to go with Miami's stingy defense and solid running game to grind out the win.
Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers (-10.5)
On the off chance that the Cardinals' defense gets the better of Aaron Rodgers the way that the 49ers and Seahawks did earlier this season, I hope this is an exciting-enough game to be in the Well Drink bucket. But Arizona simply has no answers on offense right now to match even an average day at the office for the Packers offense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) at Oakland Raiders
I'm struggling with this pick. The last time Tampa Bay had extra rest and then faced an AFC West team, they slapped the Kansas City Chiefs silly. They've also found some real fire power in Doug Martin since that time but have lost All Pro Guard Carl Nicks for the season, which would create a black hole on any roster. Assuming
Carson Palmer continues his relative success in the passing game this
week, I think the Raiders can exploit the weaknesses in Tampa's secondary just enough to come out on top.
Denver Broncos (-3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
How about that Peyton Manning? Sure, the Chargers and the Saints have pretty much handed him the keys to the top of the quarterback rating ranks over the past couple of weeks, but the Bengals defense gives me very little reason to think things will be much different this week. I like that Cincy has at least had a bye to prepare for this one and hopefully keep things interesting for a little while, but they have not demonstrated thus far that they're ready to take that next step into the AFC inner circle.
House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-7.5)
It's official: I've completely given up on the Chiefs. Yes, just now. Shame they're playing what looks to be a very beatable Chargers team on Thursday night. But when you haven't been able to lead a single game in regulation all season long, well, I got no silver lining for you.
Detroit Lions (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Is it me or have the Jaguars started to look at least slightly more competitive than they did at the beginning of the season? I think this is going to be a tougher game for Detroit to win than it might seem, but the Lions still look like the more battle-tested of the two, especially in the 4th quarter when it counts.
Chicago Bears (-4.5) at Tennessee Titans
To be fair, I don't think this game will be a blowout, and maybe Vegas knows that too. The Bears seem to have lost a little bit of that offensive spark in the past couple of weeks that has complemented a tremendous defense well this year. But the Titans have just the kind of defense that Chicago can handle to squeak by in Nashville on Sunday.
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-11)
There was a time in the distant past when I could have easily convinced myself this would be a good game. That dissolved as soon as Ryan Fitzpatrick signed on the dotted line.
This game just got a lot more interesting than it appeared to be at the outset of the season. The Browns put up a good fight in the first round with the Ravens this year, and now they have fewer Baltimore ball hawks to worry about. Still, I think the bye week came at just the right time for the Ravens to start learning how to fill their growing defensive void. They'll be playing like their playoff lives depend on it.
So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 8 - 6
Season Record: 74 - 44
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