Week 13 Picks for Every NFL Game

Week 13 sounds awfully ominous for my picks.  Plus, I haven't had nearly the time to crunch the numbers that I usually like to.  So on the plus side, there's no room to overanalyze anything.  On the negative side, I may not actually have a clue with so many games that seem kind of up in the air...  Here goes:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
This always-entertaining and nasty-lately rivalry has reached a boiling point this year, even though the Saints are nowhere near contention for the division crown.  That nastiness alone makes it our Lady Blitz Game of the Week.   I have a sneaking suspicion New Orleans would've lost if Julio Jones had been able to stay in the first divisional game this season, but I will tempt fate again with a lot of cards stacked against the Saints because it's just what you do in these situations. 

New York Giants (-2.5) at Washington Redskins

Truthfully, this probably should be the real game of the week, but you get what you pay for with this blogger.  Two hot division rivals will come face to face, and the Redskins have time and home field advantage on their side.  Still, I just can't deny the Giants' defensive resurgence against the equally formidable Aaron Rodgers this past week.  Let's hope they put it to good use against Robert Griffin & co.

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (-3.5)
Two of the best defenses of 2012 clash at Soldier Field this Sunday to my delight.  At this point, it appears that both of the Seahawks' Adderall-embattled corners will get to play Sunday, while the Bears are facing some big injuries on both sides of the ball.  I think we're going to have ourselves a very close game for 3ish quarters, but the discrepancies between Seattle's road game performance and Chicago's home game performance will still be too much for the 'Hawks to surmount in the end.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)

If I were playing the spread game, I'd say that I'm still shocked that Baltimore is so heavily favored in this game.  No matter who's playing and who's not, Steelers-Ravens is nearly always a nail-biting thriller because the hatred makes up for the injuries.  Even so, the home field Flacco will look like a god in comparison to any Charlie Batch.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos (-7)

In another year, this could be a pretty interesting game.  I definitely like where the Buccaneers are headed, and an upset isn't totally out of the question.  However, they've still got some big work to do in their pass defense, and that ain't good when you're visiting Peyton Manning's house.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

 

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-8)

I'm hoping this game is closer than it appears, especially considering how lifeless Green Bay looked on Sunday night.  The Vikings have a little more than a prayer if they can get Adrian Peterson going early.  But I trust that Aaron Rodgers is competitive enough to pick up the pieces after a Meadowlands rout and take it out on his lesser NFC North rivals.

Indianapolis Colts at Detroit Lions (-4.5)

Here's an interesting experimental question: is it that the Colts don't play as well on the road in general, or that they don't play as well outdoors?  We'll find out for sure (sample size = 1) on Sunday in Detroit.  My spidey senses say the bigger issue is that Colts' defense won't hold up against an explosive Lions team that was robbed on Thanksgiving.  On a related note, I hope Andrew Luck wears a cup.

New England Patriots (-7.5) at Miami Dolphins

The Pats are looking absolutely vintage right now the way they've run up the score mercilessly against schmucks like the Jets as of late to the rest of America's delight.  They'll get a chance to do it again against an uneven Dolphins team unless Buffalo Wild Wings employees turn on the sprinklers again.

San Francisco 49ers (-7) at St. Louis Rams
I'm not sure this really belongs in the Well Drink bucket other than that the Rams could have a slight boost with the early time slot, but they must be kicking themselves that they concussed Alex Smith three weeks ago only to have to face a well-oiled Colin Kaepernick instead.  The irony and the agony.  This one won't end in a tie.

Cincinnati Bengals (-2) at San Diego Chargers
The Bengals seem to have really recaptured their groove as of late, while the Chargers couldn't groove their way out of a paper bag... in the 4th quarter.  With the wild card carrot dangling within reach for Cincy, I like their chances against confounding and snake-bitten San Diego.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-10)
Who knew the Cowboys would still technically be in the wild card mix after that disastrous outing with the Redskins last week?  They'll get what appears to be a freebie against an Eagles team just waiting to be euthanized, but remember, this Dallas team went to overtime against the Cleveland Browns two weeks ago.  If Jerry Jones is listening, I still maintain that Yakkity Sax should be a recurring theme song in Cowboys Stadium this weekend.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

 

Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets (-4.5)
Hoo boy.  This game really comes down to who will do less damage to their team this time, Ryan Lindley or Mark Sanchez, after two truly embarrassing Week 12 performances.  I'm just not sure what to think and I sure as Kanye won't be watching, so I'll go with the home team with more experience and rest.

Carolina Panthers (-3) at Kansas City Chiefs
The Panthers have shown they're mildly capable of beating the dregs of the NFL barrel, and the Kansas City Chiefs surely are that.  Still, call it a suicide pick but I think the Chiefs could actually eke out a win here, however implausible.  Can't explain it, I just have a weird, wrong feeling and it's not Bieber fever.

Jacksonvile Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-6)

In most power ranking polls, the Jaguars now have the distinction of becoming a little bit better than the worst team in the NFL.  Unfortunately for Jacksonville, the Bills look to be the even-more-distinguished tenth worst team in the NFL or so.  Release the Kraken (Spiller).

Houston Texans (-6) at Tennessee Titans

Few teams could use extra rest like the Houston Texans lately, who got an extra helping after a nearly disastrous Thanksgiving in Detroit.  I suspect they'll emerge from their lone star cocoons ready to silence some critics this weekend, much to the chagrin of the inconsistent Titans.

Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders (PK)

Technically, this could be a decent game since these teams seem pretty evenly matched as indicated by Vegas, but it is totally irrelevent, so in the House Punch it stays.  I like Cleveland if Brandon Weeden plays since the Oakland defense is prone to any semblance of an offense, but I'll adjust this one in Oakland's favor if Colt McCoy is under center, reminding us all that someone once thought he was important. This guy:

So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 10 - 6
Season Record: 116 - 59 - 1

Week 12 Recap and the Five Worst Fan Bases in the NFL

Interesting things are afoot in the playoff picture these days.  Just about every team nipping at the heels of that final NFC wild card lost this weekend, and Pittsburgh and Cincinnati may end up do-si-doing after all like I originally predicted at the beginning of the season.  It wasn’t a great time with the picks, but I took some risks, both good and bad, and we saw a few notable upsets and near-upsets too.  Good thing you’re not putting bets on this stuff, right?

Without further adieu, here's your Week 12 recap in Quick Snap form.  I'll also feature a big idea, team and/or player each week to keep things interesting.  This week: the Five Worst Fan Bases in the NFL.  But first, the good stuff:

Week 12: The Good Stuff

·     R.G.III., R.O.Y. – 2012 has really had an excellent rookie QB class to say the least, and 4 out of those 5 rookies emerged victorious this week.  None were more impressive than Robert Griffin, however, who has posted a near-perfect passer rating for two consecutive weeks and looked virtually unstoppable against the Cowboys with 4 TDs in the second quarter alone on Thanksgiving.  It was an abysmal Thanksgiving for the home teams, by the way.  I admit I got distracted by other-shiny-thing Andrew Luck in recent weeks, but the way Griffin is playing, a wild card isn’t out of the question for the Redskins either.  One thing’s for sure, it’s going to be a very, very tough Rookie of the Year debate depending on how these final five weeks play out.

·      Ray Rice, Rasputin – You could chalk up Baltimore’s stunning overtime win Sunday to yet another pathetic Chargers collapse, and I wouldn’t blame you.  Still, my mind is totally blown after seeing how Ray Rice got the Ravens there in the first place.  In the waning minutes of the fourth quarter, somehow Rice picked up a 4^th and 29.  On a tiny check down.  After dodging an insane number of [missed] tackles to get the Ravens into tying field goal position.  Talk about Never Say Die, God must be from Baltimore, and his name is Ray Rice.

·      San Francisco’s Defensive Schooling – True, these guys haven’t really gone anywhere since they’ve put up consistently spectacular defense for two years now, but even I was impressed with the way they took down my beloved Saints on Sunday, QB controversy or not.  (P.S., Who didn’t get a little joyful schadenfreude watching Alex Smith eagerly waiting with his helmet on from the sidelines?)  Of course, Drew Brees gave San Francisco just as many TDs as Colin Kaepernick earned himself, but the defensive strategy the Niners drew up was brilliant.  They played heavy coverage until it paid off in the first half, lulling the Saints’ offensive line into a sense of false security and then unleashed holy terror in the pass rush for the next 30 minutes.  I couldn’t bear to watch it anymore around the two-minute warning, but San Francisco deserves a ton of respect for stopping a hot team at home dead in their tracks.

·      Nailed It!: My Best Prediction of the Week - I took a few more chances against the spread this week than I normally do with mixed results, but my assessment of the coaching matchup (and unfortunate Ryan Lindley) were pretty good in Cardinals v. Rams:

o  "The Cardinals' 0 - 6 streak is starting to feel just as idiosyncratic as their 4 - 0 start, and surely Ken Whisenhut isn't stupid enough to start his third string QB again.  But maybe that's my point in picking the Rams here: Jeff Fisher just isn't that stupid."

Week 12: The Bad Stuff

·      The Return of Blatantly Terrible Officiating – Just in case there are a handful of fans who haven’t fallen back out of love with the return of the A-Team NFL referees, we’ve seen some of those old-fashioned terrible calls in recent weeks.  None was more blatantly awful than during the Lions-Texans game for all the world to watch on Thanksgiving.  At a glance, Houston appeared to score a long TD run after Justin Forsett broke a tackle near the line of scrimmage and sprinted all the way to the end zone untouched.  The problem?  He was obviously down by contact during said broken tackle, which the refs refused even to review, instead penalizing Detroit for trying to challenge the play. Sure, the Lions’ penalty was warranted in the rule book and the refs were also playing by it when they refused to review the replay, but this is definitely a situation in which the spirit versus letter of the law has just about everyone’s heads spinning.  Even as we speak, Detroit fans must be feeling the Thanksgiving heartburn since that score eventually sent Houston to overtime and then a win.

·      The Steelers’ Attempted Suicide – I’m not sure what was worse, the Steelers’ abysmal 8-turnover game or the fact that the Browns still only won by six points in spite of it.  What I do know is that the Steelers have bigger problems than Charlie Batch right now—the holes in the offensive line are really starting to show without Big Ben there to shake off five defenders around his ankles, and the rest of the offense is providing no help to match severe attrition on defense. In any case, Pittsburgh’s looking like a prime candidate for the second-half Lady Blitz Kiss of Death award after I had them beating out Baltimore for the division title in my most recent playoff predictions.

·      Green Bay’s Early Fold – Speaking of teams totally exposed by injuries this week, few looked more lifeless from the get-go than the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night in the Meadowlands.  There can be no doubt they were outplayed and overpowered for about 50 minutes of action by the Giants, but it really looked like Aaron Rodgers & co. weren’t even trying, much to the chagrin of fantasy owners everywhere.  Even with a quarter and a half left to go, the Packers were too busy handing the ball off to their third string running backs and dumping check downs behind the line of scrimmage to even attempt to look respectable.  This may just be a grand conspiracy from an Aaron Rodgers-begrudger, but I’m more than a little suspicious that he was more concerned about padding his efficiency stats than trying to give his team a chance when the going got tough.

·      Shanked It!: My Worst Week 12 Prediction – While it was still technically an upset, I’m feeling more than a little foolish about my Cowboys-Redskins pick, since it couldn’t be much further from reality in retrospect:

o   "The Redskins could walk away with the win in Dallas, and I'm certainly rooting for them to do so.  But I think Rob Ryan's defense will have the edge against RG3, who's putting up a respectable rookie year but also fallible against solid defenses like this one."

Week 12 Feature: The Five Worst Fan Bases in the NFL
I was intrigued this week to read that Ed the Fireman is stepping down as the unofficial mascot of the New York Jets.  I too would be deeply embarrassed having to support Mark Sanchez on a weekly basis, but apparently that wasn't the reason for Ed's return to anonymity.  Rather, he was tired of being constantly harassed by his own fellow [drunken] Jets fans when his team wasn't doing so well.  Which got me thinking on a slow week, which teams have the worst fan bases in the NFL?  Let's find out:


5) San Francisco 49ers - Oh sure, they've got plenty to cheer about now that everything's coming up roses with Jim Harbaugh and a loaded defense/QB supply.  But where were all these suddenly-San Francisco fans between 1999 and 2010?  I guess either jogging alongside the bandwagon and/or stockpiling their decals and car window flags for a rainy day.  SF's as fair-weather as they get, not that I'm bitter about anything.
4) Pittsburgh Steelers - I know I need to tread lightly with some of my readership on this one, and to be fair, I know many lovely Steelers fans... because there's so many of them.  Normally I'd pick on Cowboys fans instead for being so inexplicably ubiquitous, but the way Dallas has played for the last several years, I'm starting to think they really are a loyal bunch for better or worse.  No, the Steelers get this one because every time you criticize them for supporting an alleged rapist, they're all "HOW MANY RINGZZZ DUZ YUR TEAM HAVE?! DUURRRR"  You're welcome, for this masterpiece theater performance.
3) Florida, All of It - What do the Buccaneers, Dolphins and Jaguars all have in common?  Constant threats of packing up for London and L.A.  I'm sure there's a perfectly sociological reason why the fourth most populated state in the U.S. doesn't turn out for any of its pro football teams, but there's no denying that these sunshine fans are pretty lackluster.  Fun fact: there are more empty NFL seats than suppressed voters per capita in Florida.
2) New York Jets - As mentioned above, the Jets have one of the few fan bases that would actually eat their own when the going gets tough.  Because nothing refutes the notion of misdirected hostility like trashing a New York firefighter instead of that mouthy coach who promises you the Lombardi every year and gives you Tim Tebow and Mark Sanchez instead.  Then there's all that entitled misogyny that makes these guys a notch worse than all those non-existent Florida fans.
1) Philadelphia Eagles - To be fair, Philly may have more reasons to be cranky than just about any other fan base in the NFL, given the last two seasons and a lifetime of Lombardi-less disappointment.  But theirs is a track record of epic proportions when it comes to unsportsmanlike conduct.  Where do we start?  Well, there's immediately booing your own first round draft pick, Donovan McNabb, who took you to five conference championships and a Super Bowl.  And Santa Claus (really).  But cheering for Michael Irvin when he suffered a career-ending neck injury on the field.  And also installing your own court and jailing system in-house to cut down on bottle-necking with all that criminal activity.  Just another Sunday in the city of brotherly love:

 

Week 12 Picks for Every NFL Game

Happy Turkey Day from that other NFL-less city of San Antonio!  We're back to a full sample size of 16 games and no more bye weeks to round out the season, which means I've got to take a little more care with adequate stat and injury research and yet try not to overthink these things.  Good luck with that.  Here's to a wonderful Thanksgiving of turkey, booze (and/or coffee) and football aplenty for you and your family and to a triumphant but tricky week of picks for me:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (-3)
 This has become quite the intra-conference rivalry over the past few years that makes for a perfect Lady Blitz Game of the Week.  Since that 2008 playoff bout that sent the Giants to the Super Bowl, we've seen a great matchup that has gone back and forth with twists and turns, usually (interestingly enough) to the visiting team's advantage. This time though, I like New York at home with more time to rest and prepare while Green Bay still picks up the pieces from its many injuries.  One thing I'm hoping we'll be assured is fantastic quarterback play from two of the most competitive guys in the league.

San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) at New Orleans Saints
A reanimated rivalry from the days of the old NFC West comes to the Superdome this weekend, and it should be a wild ride regardless of the outcome just like it was in January.  This could turn out to be a game of wishful thinking for Saints fans depending on what happens under center for San Francisco on Sunday, but I'm banking on 1) the Saints' continuing November hot streak; 2) challenges from the 49ers' short week and long travel; and 3) hopes that Colin Kaepernick's MNF performance was a flukey great start that won't repeat itself.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-3)
The Redskins could walk away with the win in Dallas, and I'm certainly rooting for them to do so.  But I think Rob Ryan's defense will have the edge against RG3, who's putting up a respectable rookie year but also fallible against solid defenses like this one.

New England Patriots (-7) at New York Jets 
This is a surprisingly tough one given the Patriots' Gronk injury, the Jets' home field advantage on a short week, and both teams' strong showings this past weekend and in their first meeting earlier this season.  These two coaches would love nothing more than to stomp the other's team into the Meadowlands turf, but I don't think a blowout is in order.  On a whim that the Patriots are still a pretty good team and the Jets generally are not, I think New England squeaks by in a very close one.

Atlanta Falcons  (-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This pick is just as much about the Buccaneers' inspired play of late as it is about the Falcons' recently exposed troubles.  Obviously Julio Jones' health is a huge factor in the outcome of this game, but I also think the Bucs will play better at home than the Falcons will on the road along with the momentum changes at play.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

 

Houston Texans (-3) at Detroit Lions

Make no mistake: this is a trap game for the Texans.  They've crawled through the Soldier Field mud and a surprisingly intense overtime win against the Jaguars, and they have to be gassed.  Even so, there's no denying Andre Johnson's abilities in just about every circumstance, and playing against the Lions' secondary is surely a favorable one.

 

Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts (-3)

These two teams could form a support group for enduring the Patriots' brutality earlier this season.  I'm hopeful that the Bills' extra rest will make this a more competitive game than it would otherwise be, but the Colts should rebound nicely in front of the home crowd as they take another step toward the land of wild card bids.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-2.5)
I lucked out this past week in not paying enough attention to injury statuses to update my Bears pick.  It sounds like Jay Cutler will likely play on Sunday, which should give Chicago a real edge at home.  If he doesn't return though, expect the Minnesota Vikings to wear down that storied defense with Adrian Peterson while taking shots at one of those third string McCowns.  With those kinds of extremes, expect an update from me if Cutler doesn't go.

 

Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Miami Dolphins 
The hot streak hangover is pilling on in Miami, though I think there are glimmers of hope for next season in the maturation of the offense and a good defensive effort.  Unfortunately for the South Beach hopefuls, the Seahawks coming off a bye are just to ferocious for the Dolphins to overcome right now.  This will be another good road test for Russell Wilson and another nail in the coffin for a Miami playoff spot.

Baltimore Ravens (-1) at San Diego Chargers

As is par for the course for today's Ravens, this game comes down to which offense shows up in San Diego to a large extent.  Baltimore has been battling critical injuries on defense all year and has risen to the challenge far more often than not with its second string picking up for its uneven offensive performance.  Unfortunately, Ed Reed's one-game suspension looks to be too much for the Ravens to handle while Philip Rivers and company pick up a much-needed win at home.

 

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

 

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)
Like Vegas, I'm not too sure about this game.  The Cardinals' 0 - 6 streak is starting to feel just as idiosyncratic as their 4 - 0 start, and surely Ken Whisenhut isn't stupid enough to start his third string QB again.  But maybe that's my point in picking the Rams here: Jeff Fisher just isn't that stupid.

Carolina Panthers (-2) at Philadelphia Eagles 
I wouldn't be surprised if the Eagles don't win another game this season.  Andy Reid might as well be reading his last rites every time he does a press conference, and Nick Foles is just not shovel-ready behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league.  The Panthers aren't exactly formidable competition, but they've done enough lately to show they can take advantage of worse teams.

Oakland Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-8)
The Raiders have given up 135 points, or 45 on average, during the past three games.  Meanwhile, the Bengals offense is clicking on all cylinders at the right time to make a move in the AFC North against the teetering Steelers.  You do the math.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) at Cleveland Browns 

Even with Charlie Batch at the helm, the Steelers should still technically have this game, but I like the sneaky Browns for a good old-fashioned upset.  They deserve it the way they've played in many a close loss this season.

Denver Broncos (-10.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
It's hard to find two more divergent extremes in the league right now.  Peyton Manning's Broncos look virtually unstoppable and the Chiefs do nothing but stop themselves from success.  Historical note: we're almost to the one-year anniversary of the Chiefs' unlikely triumph over the 13 - 0 Packers.  That might end up being the highlight from this season too for the Chiefs.

Tennessee Titans (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Hopefully the Titans are a little more vigilant about protecting this win now that Coach Mularkey has finally discovered that he's not legally required to start Blaine Gabbert every week.  Of course, he could always post bond for Ryan Leaf to play backup to Chad Henne...

So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 12 - 2
Season Record: 106 - 53 - 1

Week 11 Recap and Five MVP Questions Going Into the Final Stretch

Howdy, Lady Blitz readers!  A flurry of circumstances (work, moving, Thanksgiving travel) have me a little behind schedule with my usual loquacious style of NFL game breakdowns this week.  There are fair skies ahead once we get this internet situation secured in my new digs, but in the absence of time, infrastructure, and as deep a study of this week's plays as usual (I even had to miss the Saints' blowout on Sunday!), I've pared things down quite a bit today. 

Here are my lingering thoughts on Week 11, not just in Quick Snap form, but in Haiku.  I know.  I'll also feature a truly quick rendition of my weekly feature this week: Five MVP Questions Going Into the Final Stretch of an anything-goes, no-holds-barred kind of year.  But first, the good stuff:

Week 11: Haikus of Good Stuff

Colts at Patriots
Pick one-ninety-nine
Destroyed rookie number one
...Or at least this time

Ravens at Steelers
Ugly win, Ravens
But not as ugly as those
Bumblebee unis

Saints at Raiders
New Orleans marches
Even if Tony Dungy
Won't acknowledge it

Nailed It!: My Best Week 11 Prediction - This one pretty much hits the nail on the head.  There's absolutely no reason the Falcons should be 9 - 1 after yesterday's 6-takeaway spectacular against the formidable Arizona defense.  Oh wait, yes there is:

• "I do think the Falcons need to be careful against an excellent defense that has had some much-needed rest.  Still, Arizona just doesn't have the kind of firepower on offense with or without Kevin Kolb to play against an angry Falcons team that is 18 - 3 after a loss under Mike Smith."

Week 11: Haikus of Bad Stuff

(Speaking of) Cardinals at Falcons
Five picks and a loss?
Yes, the Cardinals' offense
Is really that bad

Eagles at Redskins
It's always burning
In Philly's coaching hot seat.
Andy's face: unchanged

The Overtime Peanut Gallery
Browns, Jaguars, Panthers
Would impress playing horseshoes
But not overtime

Shanked It!: My Worst Week 11 Prediction - The Dolphins are definitely moving up the charts in teams I just don't get.  Since I didn't pick many teams against the spread this week (and was largely successful because of it just like everyone else), I took one last chance on them and failed miserably:

• "This game sure just got a lot harder to pick that it would have seemed two weeks ago, but I'm going to go with the longitudinal record on this one.  The Dolphins have shown they can shut down elite rushing games before this year, and forcing Ryan Fitzpatrick to throw will be key for their success this week."

Week 11 Feature: Five MVP Questions Going Into the Final Stretch
With nearly three quarters of the regular season gone and still no true frontrunner in sight in the 2012 MVP race, here are some additional meditations to consider in a surprisingly hazy race:

1. How much does context matter?  There are a handful of elite players performing at the same or better level than, say, Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning, but these two definitely get the personal interest bump for now after battling back from major injuries and easily surpassing early expectations.  
2. Should Julio Jones be on the edges of the radar?  By winning-QB convention and by an overall record that speaks for itself so far this year, Matt Ryan is still a frontrunner for MVP, but he just hasn't looked the same with WR Julio Jones out during most of the past two weeks.
3. Why isn't Drew Brees at least in the conversation? It'd be an outside shot as it is every year, but Drew Brees leads the league in TD passes and yards per game, broke Johnny U's 50+ year consecutive games record, and has gotten scary good again as the season has gone on.  All of this without a coach and without much of a defense or running game.  Le sigh.
4. Does J.J. Watt even have a chance anymore?  Ah, the curse of every great (non-QB) skill player.  You fly under the radar with exceptional talent and results, and then everyone starts to notice.  And then you get double-teamed for all of eternity.
5. Are we destined for an uninspired repeat?  Newcomer MVP QB hopefuls Alex Smith, Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck and (sort of) Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger all showed great flashes of brilliance early and often, but injuries and bad days are stacking up in the favor of the Bradys, Rodgers, and P. Mannings of the world...

 

Week 11 Predictions for Every NFL Game

This could be a snowglobe kind of week, meaning I think we're in for some shakeups between all of the key injuries and momentum changes we saw in Week 10.  Depending on whether or not you count the 49ers-Rams tie against me, it was another decent round of picks last time too.  I even got a Steelers game right, if just barely.  Without further adieu, here are my [sigh] Vegas-heavy Week 11 projections:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)
Important Disclaimer: I've provided three different scenarios for my pick based on what comes of the injuries to both teams' QBs between now and Monday night.  I reserve the right to update my pick if any developments occur that could majorly impact the game between now and then.  But even assuming both QBs are out of the picture for this one, we've got ourselves an excellent Lady Blitz Game of the Week that then only magnifies the critical role of two of the NFL's very best defenses.  In Scenario 1 (where neither QB is cleared for play), I like the Bears.   They've shown they can put plenty of points on the board without Jay Cutler, or the offense for that matter.  In Scenario 2 in which both QBs are cleared to play, I like the 49ers-- they have a more prolific offense than Chicago and Alex Smith does not typically make the kind of mistakes the Bears need to keep pace.  In Scenario 3 in which only one QB is cleared to play, I pick that team for its obvious competitive advantage.  At the time of posting, it sounds like Alex Smith is on the up-and-up while Jay Cutler's still doubtful.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-9)
An Andrew Luck victory over the Patriots in Foxboro this weekend would be at once stunning and not at all surprising.  But while the Colts have earned key divisional wins on the road during the past month against the Titans and Jaguars, the Patriots are a different animal.  New England's defense has been shaky, which could definitely be a problem, but this is a situation where I believe experience will win out in the end, and Tom Brady's just not ready to be overshadowed in the AFC yet.

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
I had this one picked for the Steelers before Monday night, but Ben Roethlisberger's contributions cannot be understated when it comes to Pittsburgh's comeback success this season.  This annually significant, always entertaining rivalry game still merits a Top Shelf distinction for its history, but the Steelers are now roughly where the Ravens were when they got stomped by the Texans a few weeks ago: woefully unprepared to fill the injury gaps on the roster against a team hungry for AFC dominance.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

 

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)

Were the Dolphins' collapse and/or the Bills' near-upset on Sunday just blips on the radar or a signal of where these teams are headed for the remainder of the season?  This game sure just got a lot harder to pick that it would have seemed two weeks ago, but I'm going to go with the longitudinal record on this one.  The Dolphins have shown they can shut down elite rushing games before this year, and forcing Ryan Fitzpatrick to throw will be key for their success this week.  I hope they have a productive chip on their shoulders after that Titans rout...

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Detroit Lions

This may be Detroit's last gasp for playoff consideration with so many NFC teams vying for a wild card spot and two Green Bay bouts left on the schedule. Unfortunately, I don't see any situation where the Lions avoid getting swept yet again this year.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-7.5)
Hey, remember the last time the Chargers and Broncos played each other this season?  You know the game where San Diego still couldn't close with a 24 - 0 lead?  Well the Broncos are playing explosive football for two halves now and they get to do it before the "Tebow who?" home crowd at Mile High.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (-3.5)
Dysfunction, they name is the Philadelphia Eagles.  I'm keeping this one on the Well Drink shelf because it's still a good divisional rivalry between two similarly skilled quarterbacks... though it looks like Michael Vick is still seeing tweety-birds and out for Sunday.  So the Redskins must be absolutely salivating for a win after a bye week and five straight games worth of blueprints for beating this reeling Philly squad.  The big question is whether or not we'll be seeing any more of Andy Reid or Michael Vick after Week 11.  I put the over-under at 48 hours.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) at Carolina Panthers

This is potentially a trap game for the hot Buccaneers since those divisional rivalries sure can be pesky.  But I can't even image how rough the Carolina locker room must be right now.  A Tampa win is another huge step towards playoff contention... Maybe they can knock the Falcons around a couple more times too before 2012 closes out.

New York Jets at St. Louis Rams (-3.5)

The Rams sure put up a good fight against the vaunted 49ers defense on Sunday thanks in large part to the smooth return of WR Danny Amendola, even if he apparently didn't brush up on the rulebook too much during his hiatus.  The thing I like more about this Rams team is that pass rush.  That pass rush against Mark Sanchez.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

 

Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-10)
There's a slight chance Roddy White could beat himself here for the charity of the severely back-sliding Cardinals.  And I do think the Falcons need to be careful against an excellent defense that has had some much-needed rest.  Still, Arizona just doesn't have the kind of firepower on offense with or without Kevin Kolb to play against an angry Falcons team that is 18 - 3 after a loss under Mike Smith.  Especially in the Georgia Dome.

Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys (-8)
Dallas may soon be nipping at the Giants' heels if things keep going the way they have in the NFC East lately.  I think the Browns will have some fight in themselves too after the bye, but the Cowboys have a lot more talent and a lot more at stake not to screw this one up.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Andy Dalton's got to be feeling confident about righting the Bengals' ship after that decisive win against the Giants last week.  Although Cincy still has an uphill climb back into playoff contention, this 3-week string with the not-so-scary part of the AFC West is a great start, especially against the still-hapless Chiefs.

New Orleans Saints (-5) at Oakland Raiders

Sigh.  These are the kinds of games that New Orleans often loses to remind us they are still the Saints, and that makes me nervous.  What doesn't make me nervous, however, is just how good New Orleans tends to get in November.  They've won 13 straight games during this month of the season and are 19 - 6 overall in the Drew Brees era.  Oakland on the other hand just lost to Joe Flacco's Ravens by 35 points.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-15.5)
It's still a little early to recycle my "two bye weeks" joke about playing the Jaguars, but that's essentially what the Texans have at home this week to recover more fully after an exhausting victory in Chicago last Sunday.

So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 10 -3 - 1*
Season Record: 94 - 51 - 1*

*How does one characterize tie games, anyway?  What can I say, I'm a stat padder.

Week 10 Recap and Why Nobody Likes the Falcons

Interesting Week 10 potential playoff development: all four AFC division leaders won on Sunday while none of the NFC division leaders did.  You know the story with those 1972 Dolphins (except not really).  We also saw our first tie in four years in a bizarre, poorly-coached and poorly-officiated game between the Rams and 49ers, and four high-profile quarterbacks went down to injuries that had a fundamental impact on those games. I can already tell I'm going to have to call a Mulligan or two depending on how the healing process goes this next week...

Here are my lingering thoughts on Week 10 in Quick Snap form.  I'll also feature a big idea, team and/or player each week to keep things interesting.  This week: Why "Nobody" Likes the Falcons.  But first, the good stuff:

Week 10: The Good Stuff

• Mud Bowl 2012 - I won't gloat that I picked the Texans to [slightly] upset the Bears at home on Sunday, especially since it's hard to say what would have happened if Jay Cutler had not suffered a game-ending concussion in the first half, but I also loved this game for other reasons.  The low-scoring affair was probably a bore to many, but the sloppy field and unforgiving Chicago weather brought these two teams to their nasty ground-and-pound cores.  And major kudos to the Texans for rising from the muddy ashes.  With Brandon Marshall, Devin Hester and Andre Johnson getting sandbagged in the finesse game, we got to see the vintage kind of football clash that these two teams were built to play.  Here's to hoping for Part II when Chicago heads to San Francisco next Monday night.

• The Saints' Surprising Red Zone Defense - I never thought I'd say this after the first half of this season, but there is actually a silver lining in that historically bad Saints defense.  They might still get gashed by offenses good and bad for 450+ yards a game, but they are clutch in the one place where it really counts, the red zone.  They've had big stops in each of their wins this season that have let them edge out a growing number of contenders in complement to the big production of Drew Brees' offense. But don't take my word for it, Saints columnist Mike Triplett has summed it up quite nicely:
• "The Saints have now held their opponents without a touchdown nine times this season when they had either a first or second down inside the 5-yard line.
  - Earlier in the fourth quarter Sunday, they also forced Atlanta to settle for a field goal after the Falcons had a first-and-goal from the 5-yard line.
  - Last week, they stopped the Philadelphia Eagles three times inside the 5-yard line, allowing one field goal and forcing two turnovers (one of which was returned 99 yards for a touchdown).
  - Three weeks ago, the Saints famously stopped the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on four straight plays from the 1-yard line after safety Malcolm Jenkins' touchdown-saving tackle at the end of Vincent Jackson's 95-yard catch.
  - Earlier this year, the Saints forced both the Green Bay Packers and Carolina Panthers to fumble inside the 4-yard line."
• Adrian Peterson's More Than Full Recovery - The way AP has played this year after a devastating ACL tear in 2011 makes you wonder if more than a few prospective running backs would suffer a similar fate if they knew they could run like this afterwards.  Obviously this is no Tommy John-like situation, so don't try this at home, folks, but Adrian Peterson is making one helluva case for MVP this year.  He leads the league in rushing by a big margin right now, averaging nearly 6 yards a carry and more than keeping the unlikely Vikings afloat on offense.  Sunday's performance against the Lions put another notch in the consideration column to be sure with a buck-70 running game.
• Nailed It! My Best Week 10 Prediction - Yet another reason to love the Seahawks this season, they took Jabba the Rex to the cleaners this weekend by handing Mark Sanchez a QB rating of just 6.2:
• "For everything I loathe about Rex Ryan's incessant yammering, I have to give him credit for always acting as though the Jets have no reason to feel intimidated by anyone even if they're walking into the lion's jaws.  And you can count on that latter part when Mark Sanchez (or Tebow?!?!?!) gets to face Seattle's secondary in the Emerald City this weekend."

Week 10: The Bad Stuff

• The Giants' On-Schedule Slump - November is a make or break time for a lot of teams that you can practically set your watch to each year.  Tony Romo turns on his passer-rating competency, the Saints become nearly unstoppable, and the Giants sink into an inexplicable slump after a strong start.  I pointed out in my Week 10 picks last week that I thought this would be a tough [but winnable] game for New York since the sense of urgency in Cincinnati is hard to match right now.  But no, the Giants went very opposite day on us.  Once-MVP hopeful Eli Manning tossed 2 picks, no TDs and just 215 yards.  The Giants' second-in-takeaways defense had no sacks and just one fumble, plus they allowed Andy Dalton to have his first no-INT game of the season (and 4 TDs) and got totally outplayed in the red zone.   New York still has a workable cushion as the NFC East division leader, but they continue to be a very frustrating self-fulfilling prophecy in November.
• Matt Cassel's... Everything - This is looking like a career-ending year for Matt Cassel, and not in the polite ice-cream-cake-retirement-party kind of way.  The Chiefs had a chance just about every 3 minutes to put the Steelers away on Monday night, especially when Ben Roethlisberger went down, but they just couldn't stop shooting themselves in the foot at every turn.  There were and continue to be a lot more problems than can be attributed to Matt Cassel alone but get this: Cassel has single-handedly caused more turnovers (19) in nine games than 28 entire teams have so far this season. You know it's bad when Brady Quinn looks like Johnny Unitas in comparison.  Don't expect the home crowd booing to let up anytime soon either if Cassel's back under center next week.

• Aaron Rodgers' Spot-On Impression of Jay Cutler - I know I'm definitely in the minority on this one, but I've had a nagging feeling for a long time that Aaron Rodgers' personality sucks.  Yes, the man is a beast on the field, but there's just a certain level of self-righteous pouting that seems to rear its ugly head every few weeks that I alluded to along with the other Packers' attitude problems back in my Week 4 Recap.  Not to mention the championship belt TD dance that every opposing player and their mothers have rolled their eyes at for the past year and a half.  Now we need to bring out our tiny violins once again for poor Mr. Rodgers, who did not like his feature on 60 Minutes last week because it was too short and didn't feature his one night of attending a children's cancer charity event.  (So that I won't seem like a total jerk, here's a link to said charity if you want to learn more.)  But really, talk about rich people problems.  "Boo-hoo-hoo, I'm Aaron Rodgers and I got a huge segment on one of the top-rated news magazine shows of all time, but they only used 11 minutes of my nondescript personal story.  How will people ever know that I think cancer is a bad thing now?"  This is the kind of stuff that lands you Tom-Brady's-Uggs levels of resentment if you're not careful.
• Shanked It! My Worst Week 10 Prediction - Hoo boy.  There were some really great upsets and even the elusive NFL tie game on Sunday, but few [including myself] saw the Titans' 60-minute domination over a hot Dolphins team coming:
• "It'll be interesting if Jake Locker gets off the bench this weekend in Miami, but it won't be enough to stop the Titans' defensive bleeding against the capable Ryan Tannehill and Reggie Bush, who may not be on track to top the league in rushing but is definitely having a career year."

Week 10 Feature: Why "Nobody" Likes the Falcons
I won't even try to hide how biased this week's feature is since I'm still riding high off of the Saints' best win to date.  To be clear, I think New Orleans will be hard-pressed to come out on top when we repeat this matchup in Atlanta on Thursday night in Week 13, but this feature is bigger than a division rivalry.  Week after week, the story in Atlanta has been why the Falcons haven't received the kind of respect 8 - 0 teams usually garner among NFL fans and pundits.  Sure, the Falcons have surpassed nearly everyone's expectations so far this season, but that still doesn't seem to be enough for most to put money on a February Super Bowl appearance.  What gives?  Here are some meditations from a snotty, callous Saints fan:

• They Still Haven't Proven Anything - Ah yes, the one thing the Falcons absolutely cannot do anything about for the next month and a half.  Atlanta has been the very definition of disappointment in the postseason since Mike Smith, Thomas Dimitroff and Matt Ryan took over in 2008.  For four (soon to be five) seasons in a row, the Falcons have had a winning record, made the playoffs three (soon to be four) times and won the division once (soon to be twice).  But for all of Atlanta's regular season successes, it's those instantaneous playoff collapses that have been foremost in everyone's minds.  Sure, there are a handful of other teams who've suffered similar fates over the past few years like the Cowboys and Chargers, but few have lost in a manner so consistently deflating as the Falcons, who've lost their last three postseason games by a combined 55 points or 18 points on average.   Add to those historic woes the fact that Atlanta has one of the easiest schedules in all of the NFL this season (12 out of 16 games on the schedule are against teams with losing records currently), and there's no room for Atlanta to really prove itself before the postseason.  Getting smacked around in the red zone by the league's worst defense this past Sunday certainly doesn't help.
• Roddy White Is the Ultimate Unsympathetic Character -  I'll admit there are a few Falcons players I genuinely like, namely Tony Gonzalez and Thomas DeCoud, but then there's Roddy White, who eclipses whatever good can be derived from this roster.  Don't get me wrong, Roddy White is still the Falcons' best, most dangerous receiver and has quietly racked up over 1,000 yards a season over the past five years, but the man is just too pathetically arrogant to be respected in the NFL despite his elite numbers.  In fact, when you look up Roddy White's Wikipedia bio, two of the three sentences in his "Personal Life" section are literally: "White had developed a tendency for partying during the early part of his career. His mother actually had to steal his credit cards from him after she found out that he was almost bankrupt less than a year after signing his rookie contract worth over $7 million."  Add to that every sour grapes quote he contributes to the news media and Twittersphere that gets used against him when the Falcons inevitably have a disappointing outing (plus unsolicited homophobia!), and you can see what a distracting embarrassment White can be to his team off the field. 
• They're Coached Not to Lose (Read: They're Boring) - You could characterize the above two points as low-hanging fruit, but this Reason the Third is what really underlies the Falcons' respect problem if you ask me: Mike Smith doesn't coach his team to win, he coaches them not to lose.  That's all well and great statistically over the course of several games like with baseball, but it'll only get you so far in football, and it continues to be the wall the Falcons seem to hit year-in and year-out in the Mike Smith era.  Case in point: many have pointed out that the Falcons should have gone for 2 against the Saints when trailing by 5 in the fourth quarter, since Atlanta would have to go for another touchdown anyway if they made the traditional extra point, but they went inexplicably by the book.  The Falcons also continued to waste goal line plays on Michael Turner up-the-gut despite his continuing lack of success against the Saints because this was the most conservatively assured approach.  In essence, Atlanta prides itself and its winning record on robotics: the team limits turnovers, injuries and penalties, gives Matt Ryan as many high-percentage checkdowns as possible, and nearly always goes for the most statistically safe play rather than honoring situational football in big games.  They do not take risks even when they're the better team, and this ultimately serves as a discredit to a highly talented roster.  In that regard, Sunday showed us that the Falcons still have a big hurdle to jump if they want to make it into the inner circle of truly elite NFL teams.

Week 10 Picks for Every NFL Game

I'm certainly no Nate Silver, but we got back up to double-digit wins last week in the picks (10-4), even if the Pittsburgh Steelers still elude me like no other.  Now comes the real make-or-break part of the season for both, the NFL and this rookie blogger trying to make a respectable prognosticator of herself.  Here are my Week 10 Picks for Every NFL Game:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (-1)
You really couldn't ask for a much better matchup than this Sunday night clash between the league's only 7 - 1 teams.  It's an incredibly tough call too.  Both teams live by the run and by stingy, opportunistic defense.  Also of interest, both teams have had very manageable schedules against lesser teams to date and their sole losses have been to Green Bay.  Hmmm... On a whim, when I think of the matchup between J.J. Watt and Jay Cutler, I have to go Texans.

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints
There are times when you have to throw rationality out the window and just root for your team.  This is one of those times.  The Falcons are as of yet undefeated and have proven themselves to be contenders in blowouts and close games, at home and on the road through consistent effort and minimal mistakes.  The Saints owe a ton of gratitude to the Eagles this past week for making the New Orleans defense look serviceable in the pass rush and in the red zone.  But if there's a time for the Saints to have a shining moment during an otherwise forgettable season, it's at home against the high-flying arch nemesis Falcons.  Sweet Breesus, I need a rosary.

Detroit Lions (-2) at Minnesota Vikings
Is this a wild card preview?  I probably spent more time analyzing this matchup than I should have, but it sure is an interesting one.  Obviously, the Lions rule the air while the Vikings rule the ground.  Both have defensive pockets of goodness.  And while Minnesota won in Round 1 in Detroit, statistically they were outplayed.  It'll still be tough for the Lions to win in the Metrodome, but their offense still looks like it's on the way up while the Vikings' defense has struggled as of late.

Dallas Cowboys (-1) at Philadelphia Eagles
Suggestion: With all of the bone-headed plays and nerve-jangling mistakes bound to happen during this game, Lincoln Field should just pipe in "Yakety Sax" on a loop for 3 hours.  Even so, this NFC East rumble shouldn't even be close.  If the Saints defense could sack Michael Vick 7 times, just imagine what Demarcus Ware will do.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

 

Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Do not adjust your computer screen, this is the first time the Jaguars have made it into a realm other than House Punch this season on my blog.  But it's only because this is a great test for the Colts to show that they can work hard on the road on a short week and take a huge step toward a playoff berth.  It'll be tough with the travel and with the Colts' struggles away from home, but how can you say no to Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano these days?

San Diego Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

The Bucs aren't exactly out of the woods now that the Chargers will have two weeks of legendary Doug "Muscle Hamster" Martin tape to sort through, but he's looking pretty darn unstoppable if you ask me.  Two other things should scare San Diego fans: 1) that they have an early East Coast game here; and 2) they've only beaten teams that are a collective 7 - 17 on the year.

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-6)

It'll be interesting if Jake Locker gets off the bench this weekend in Miami, but it won't be enough to stop the Titans' defensive bleeding against the capable Ryan Tannehill and Reggie Bush, who may not be on track to top the league in rushing but is definitely having a career year.

New York Giants (-4) at Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are about to get their second dose of Mannings in as many weeks.  I think this will be a fairly close game since Cincy desperately needs a win to stay in playoff contention while New York has a comfortable minimum 2-game lead in its division regardless of the outcome.  Still, the Giants just have that X-Factor in competitive willpower that I haven't seen yet from the Bengals.  Advantage, Eli.

New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)

For everything I loathe about Rex Ryan's incessant yammering, I have to give him credit for always acting as though the Jets have no reason to feel intimidated by anyone even if they're walking into the lion's jaws.  And you can count on that latter part when Mark Sanchez (or Tebow?!?!?!) gets to face Seattle's secondary in the Emerald City this weekend.  And how about that Russell Wilson?  He's really starting to hit his stride with confidence.

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-11.5)

The 49ers are about to enter a telling stretch of the schedule that features the limelight-stealing Bears defense and three away games against the dangerous Saints, Patriots and Seahawks.  They should handle the Rams at home just fine like they did last year, but I'm hopeful that Jeff Fisher has also used his bye week well in prepping for an uphill battle at Candlestick Park.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

 

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-11)
The last time these two teams met, the Patriots scored 52 points.  At home and after a bye, Bill Belichick may end up resting Tom Brady by the middle of the third quarter.

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)
I can only hope the Ravens are tithing for the scheduling gods who gave them this kind of lull in the schedule.  Following the loss Ladarius Webb and Ray Lewis for the season and getting blown out by the Texans, Baltimore has gotten a bye week and the opportunity to play back-to-back games against Cleveland and Oakland.  That all ends in Week 11 with a Chargers-on-Steelers sandwich and then the Broncos and Giants in December.  So John Harbaugh knows how important this game is, and the Ravens should get to 7 - 2 before the real fun begins.

Denver Broncos (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers
John Fox catches me as the kind of guy who enjoys vengeance.  He should have it in a big way when Peyton & co. go to Charlotte on Sunday, but then again, he really should be thanking the Panthers for letting him have the last laugh in Denver.

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-12.5)
If I don't get this Pittsburgh Steelers pick right, I am going to eat a Terrible Towel.

So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 10 - 4
Season Record: 84 - 48

Week 9 Recap and My Adjusted Playoff Projections

I don't have much of an intro or a feature for you this week, literally.  Here are my lingering thoughts on Week 9 in Quick Snap form.  I'll also feature a big idea, team and/or player each week to keep things interesting.  This week: My Adjusted Playoff predictions.  But first, the good stuff:

Week 9: The Good Stuff

• Andrew Luck's Establishment - RG3 may have grabbed all of the early headlines in this year's rookie QB round-up, but I have more than a feeling we're going to end the season on an Andrew Luck high.  In his first eight weeks of professional play, Luck has already won as many games as Peyton Manning did his rookie season and the Colts did last season combined.  And boy did he do it in style against the Dolphins, racking up a new rookie record-high 433 yards in passing.  He's made a house into a home in Indianapolis.

• Chicago's Historic Defense - We've had a lot of talk this season about the defensive powerhouses in the AFC North (Steelers, Ravens) and the NFC West (49ers, Cardinals, Seahawks), but nobody's playing like the Bears right now.  Through the first half of the season, Chicago has already amassed 24 turnovers and already broken the season record for INTs returned for touchdowns (now 7) in just eight games. Now the stats nerds might be wringing their hands knowing that these kinds of trends can be very hard to sustain because there's a certain amount of luck involved, but nobody except for the Packers has had an answer yet, and I can't wait for Part II of that rivalry at Soldier Field this year.  If they can keep this up, it's hard to picture anyone in the NFC including the Falcons being able to top them.
• Nailed It!: My Best Week 9 Prediction - It's been harder to get good picks against the spread now that we have half a season under our belts and teams are revealing themselves more fully.  So I'm pleased that the Panthers were able to muscle their way to their second win of the year against the Redskins, even if that now means the Saints are back at the bottom of the NFC South barrel:
• "Despite the front office turmoil and abysmal record, the Panthers have been on the cusp of winning against better teams over the past couple of weeks...  Neither of these teams is playing inspired defense this year, which could make for quite the shootout if Carolina can find a little of that old offensive magic.  I'll take a misguided chance on them once again this weekend."

 Week 9: The Bad Stuff

• The Music City Miracle, Part II - Actually, this is probably the least harsh thing I could say about the Eagles' performance against the Saints last night, but how mind-bogglingly poor was Philly's execution on their own "Music City Miracle" kickoff return last night?  If there is just one thing you have to take away from the original Titans play against the Bills in 2000, it's that you better not throw a freaking forward pass.  That's it.  That's literally all Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie had to do while Riley Cooper was playing superspy in the end zone and sprinting his way to what appeared to be a much-needed TD.  Of course, all of this ended up being the least of the Eagles' continuing woes, not that this Saints fan in complaining.  Philly allowed 7 sacks from the NFL's worst defense and only managed to put up 13 points on over 450 yards of offense and 5 trips to the red zone.  In other words, they looked like the 2012 Philadelphia Eagles. 

• Les. Freaking. Miles. - I know it's college football, which has next to no place here, but on behalf of the Lotz family's love for all things Louisiana football on a fairly slow NFL weekend, I'd like to say just how horribly LSU shanked a golden opportunity to crawl back into BCS relevance on Saturday night.  Credit the players-- they did their very best to snatch victory from the jaws of Les Miles and looked very much in control in the second half against an otherwise unstoppable Alabama team.  But Les Miles did not coach his team as though they deserved any credit.  The Tigers ended up losing by 4 after a spectacular last minute drive by the Tide, but only after going for it on 2 fourth-downs well within field goal range (one on a 4th and 12) and trying another field goal 10 yards back from the kicker's longest FG of record, which ultimately put Alabama in position to score a touchdown late in the first half.  In other words, there was as much as a 13-point swing hidden in Miles' atrocious decision-making that cost his team dearly.  Now it looks like he'll be eating grass at home in January right where he belongs.
• Shanked It!: My Worst Week 9 Prediction - There's no denying the Steelers are the new Eagles for me.  I am officially now 1 - 7 in picking their games this season:
• "In yet another Pittsburgh game I'm destined to shank, I think the Giants are the better team here, and they'll ultimately use the Steelers' banged up defense to their advantage in another close one at the Meadowlands."

Week 9 Feature: My Adjusted Playoff Predictions
Change has been a very certain characteristic of this NFL season.  It definitely throws off the pictures of teams' successes and failures you've had in your head all summer.  Luckily for us bloggers, we get to rewrite and rewrite and rewrite our projections when we run out of of other ideas and don't want to admit our wrongs.  Here are my adjusted playoff predictions for January:

AFC Playoffs - Originally I picked the Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills to make the playoffs in the AFC, but even in this lackluster conference, they don't look like playoff contenders this time.  They've been replaced with the Denver Broncos, Pittsburgh Steelers and Miami Dolphins.

Seeding
1. (bye) Houston Texans
The Texans still look like the most balanced and consistent team in the AFC, and the Patriots haven't taken nearly as much advantage of an "easy" schedule as I thought they would. 

2. (bye) Denver Broncos 
The Broncos' schedule gets easier and easier over the second half of the year and Peyton Manning is looking better and better.  That's a scary combo.

3. New England Patriots 
The Patriots have looked "vincible" at many points this season, and they've got a few tough matchups left on the schedule unless they can sort some more things out during the bye.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers 
Not to bring up a sore subject, but Pittsburgh is playing like the Super Bowl Packers of 2010 these days.  Despite the mounting injuries, they have stepped up nicely and Ben Roethlisberger is playing very well under the radar.

5. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens' schedule has been very forgiving as they try to tread water with injury woes of their own.  That should get Baltimore to the playoffs, but they don't look good enough to compete with the Steelers with two head-to-head matchups still on the schedule.

6. Miami Dolphins
Surprise!  The Dolphins get my last AFC playoffs spot in a photo finish with the Colts.  Indy's going to be just fine in a year, but their schedule looks just a hair tougher than the Dolphins' schedule, and Miami has shown a lot more fight than I was planning to give them credit for.

Wild Card Round
Patriots over Dolphins, Steelers over Ravens

Divisional Round
Texans over Steelers, Patriots over Broncos

AFC Championship
Texans over Patriots

NFC Playoffs - This is much more of a shuffling of seeding than of teams.  I replaced the Philadelphia Eagles with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers though.

Seeding
1. (bye) Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta probably won't make it to 16 - 0, but they could easily have a 14 or even 15 win season with the schedule ahead.  It's just that albatross of January that looms...

2. (bye) San Francisco 49ers
Stay tuned - the 49ers go head to head with the Bears in two weeks, and that may well tell us who ends up with the 2-seed in the NFC.  I like the 49ers chances at home.

3. Chicago Bears
I thought the Bears would be good this year, but not this good.  Even though they currently hold second place in the NFC, it will take just 1 - 2 games without those insane takeaways and defensive scores to knock them a few pegs back.

4. New York Giants
The Giants still look like the best team in the NFC East and had the added blessing of all of their rivals also losing this past weekend.  They'll do enough through the next seven games to stay right there.

5. Green Bay Packers
I wouldn't be surprised if the Packers end up on top of the Bears, but they're going to have to give Aaron Rodgers an Adderall to do it.

6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Like the Dolphins in the AFC, this is my NFC gamble while also considering the Seahawks strongly.  I like the Bucs' explosive offense and ability to win on the road a bit better than that of the still very respectable 'Hawks.

Wild Card Round
Bears over Buccaneers, Giants over Packers

Divisional Round
Giants over Falcons, 49ers over Bears

NFC Championship
49ers over Giants

The 2013 Super Bowl
Texans over 49ers