Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking
New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos (-6)
All signs point to a shootout for the ages in this Lady Blitz Game of the Week. Drew Brees and Peyton Manning will meet on Sunday night in Denver for the first [non-Pro Bowl] time since Super Bowl XLIV. Despite the Vegas odds, New Orleans could very well win this one since Denver has lost every game it has played against high-powered offenses (Falcons, Texans, Patriots) so far and the Saints appear to be going on a run after a sloppy 0 - 4 start. But with CB Tracy Porter now on Peyton Manning's side and the Saints defense continuing to struggle against lesser offenses, it just feels like poetic justice that Denver will find a way to win this one.
Vickapalooza takes place in Week 8 between the Atlanta Falcons and Philadelphia Eagles who will both be fresh off a bye. The Eagles will be in search of a new scapegoat after the exile of Defensive Coordinator Juan Castillo who, let's face it, was a casting choice worthy of a Razzie to being with. Sometimes a mid-year coaching change can give teams a surprising temporary boost, so there could be [what I consider] an upset in the cards with all of the talent the Eagles have. However, in keeping with a tradition of totally erroneous picks for the Eagles, I'm going with the Falcons. This will surely end Atlanta's undefeated streak at my expense.
Washington Redskins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5)
There is so much delicious polarity in this game I can't stand it: Youth vs. Experience, Finesse and Skill Play vs. Ground and Pound, NFC vs. AFC, Lovable Heisman Rookie vs. Alleged Rapist Veteran (yes, I mean both types of repeat experiences). Unfortunately, these are two teams I've gotten wrong more than most during the weekly picks. The Steelers looked better than they have all season against the Bengals last week by returning to their classic identity, but their losses have been ugly. The Redskins hvae a proven playmaker in RG3 and have fared about the same as Pittsburgh with a tougher schedule, but the defense allows opponents to stay in it every week, and Chris Cooley is going to be a rusty replacement for injured TE Fred Davis. By way of coin toss, the Redskins have it.
New York Giants (-2) at Dallas Cowboys
Here's a rivalry that never disappoints. I would make it my Lady Blitz Game of the Week, but these two already had that distinction in Week 1, so I'm spreading the wealth. It should be noted that Tony Romo always plays lights out versus the Giants, against whom he's posted some of his highest passer ratings. But New York has been in rare form for the most part since Dallas crashed their Super Bowl party the first time around this year. I expect the high-flying Giants to capitalize on the Cowboys' continuing mistakes this weekend under the jumbotrons of Arlington. Plus, New York absolutely needs this game to avoid going 1 - 3 in the division, and you know how these Road Warriors do with their backs against the wall.
Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5)
I consider this the intriguing matchup of an underperformer and an overperformer, respectively. Tampa almost stole one from New Orleans on Sunday with outstanding play from Josh Freeman and Vincent Jackson. The Vikings have surprised just about everyone this year with vast improvements on defense and a remarkably speedy Adrian Peterson comeback. There are a variety of reasons that both teams could win or lose this game, but there's just one thing I know for sure: Do not bet against the home team on Thursday night. Home teams are 5 - 1 this year, the one loss going to the Carolina Panthers and Mr. Suggestion Box himself, Cam Newton.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-2.5)
This game is about one thing: the run. Miami's rushing attack is very productive and its defense is among the best in the NFL with rush yards allowed. Add to all of this that the Dolphins are hot coming off a bye, and you've got a winning formula at the Meadowlands: 1) shut down Shonne Greene early and often; 2) force Mark Sanchez to throw his way into disaster; 3) wear down the Jets defense with Reggie Bush before letting Ryan Tannehill loose. Never thought I'd say it but I got big hopes for these Dolphins, at least this week.
New England Patriots (-7) at St. Louis Rams
The Rams have risen to the middle of the pack this year through solid defensive play while the Patriots have struggled against tough defenses (Seahawks, Cardinals, healthy Ravens). I think this would be a surprisingly tight contest if the Rams had the chance to play this home game at home, but unfortunately they must sacrifice their competitive edge to the NFL's misguided attempt at globalization in the annual London game. Then again, all the circadian disruptions could throw another wrench in the Patriots' offensive rhythm, so what do I know? Mostly that Tom Brady gives his team a chance to win far more often than not.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
Have the Titans really improved all that much in the past couple of weeks, or is this a function of playing some lowly teams (Steelers, Bills) with many question marks of their own right now? As for Indy, can they finally lock down a win on the road with the same fight they've shown at home this year? It's close, but Chris Johnson looked scary good last week, and the Colts' run defense does not.
San Francisco 49ers (-6.4) at Arizona Cardinals
We've really got ourselves a House Punch game here, but I'll give the Cardinals one more chance to redeem their hot early-season start here after going 0 - 3 since. Of course, we've also learned over the past couple of weeks that San Francisco can be very vulnerable against good defenses like Arizona, so an upset is not out of the question. But with the Niners having extra rest, more balance and the opportunity to destroy John Skelton this weekend, an upset is virtually out of the question.House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-7.5)
There just isn't much to say about this one. Unless Cam Newton gets a visit from Clarence of It's a Wonderful Life this week, Chicago should have a defensive rout on its hands much like last week and the week before that and the week before that...
San Diego Chargers (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns
Cleveland has a lot of reasons to win this game: the off-field distractions for the Chargers, the timing advantage of playing an early EDT game, Brandon Weeden's continued improvement week to week. I hope it happens, but good teams find ways to win consistently and the Browns aren't quite there yet.
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-2)
Calvin Johnson versus the Seattle secondary. I love the concept, but this one really shouldn't even be close unless Russell Wilson hands the ball to Detroit's defense on a silver platter. Then again, it might be ruled a touchdown.
It's just not fair that Green Bay gets two bye weeks.
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-2)
These two teams are a collective 3 - 9 on the year. Yech. At best, we could see Carson Palmer's emerging no-huddle offense against Jamaal Charles' big run game. At worst, we could see two teams doing their best to rip defeat from the jaws of victory. I've picked the Chiefs entirely on a whim that 1) they've had a bye week and are playing at home; and 2) the Raiders couldn't even put the Jaguars away in regulation last week without even having to deal with Maurice Jones-Drew.
So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 9 - 4
Season Record: 66 - 38
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