Week 6 Picks for Every NFL Game

After two weeks of excellent picking (13 - 2; 11 - 3), I fear that what goes up must come down.  I found myself second-guessing on many games this week, which is usually only a good sign if you're playing Russian roulette.  The other bad omen is that once I cross-referenced my picks with Vegas odds, I was almost entirely in line with them. Yikes.  On the bright side, hopefully that also means we're in for some exciting competitions this week and fewer blowouts.  Here are my Week 6 Picks for Every NFL Game:

Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)
As if there was any question, our 2011-12 NFC Championship rematch is the Lady Blitz Game of the Week.  However, this game looks to be anything but the one that happened last January.  The Giants' pass rush has been outright tame lately compared to what it was during that improbable Super Bowl run.  Meanwhile, the 49ers offensive performance has looked remarkably on par with its defense this season thanks in large part to a much improved passing game from Alex Smith.  Tom Coughlin generally does a great job of preparing his Road Warriors for their toughest opponents, and they need this one way more than San Francisco does.  But Jim Harbaugh is all too eager to strike vengeance and bloodlust in the hearts of San Francisco to stay at the top of the NFC.  The Niners get the edge.

Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
Judging by the Cowboys' last performance (Tony Romo's 5 interception spectacular against the Bears), this may be a Well Drink game in actuality, but a bye week has an interesting way with team performance.  Just ask freshly-rested Week 5 winners Pittsburgh and Indianapolis.  Baltimore's weak performance in Kansas City on Sunday was more than a little concerning, but I still think they will be the better team at home against a severely struggling Dallas offense.

New England Patriots (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks
If my spidey senses are right, we are in for at least three quarters of a real treat this week in Seattle between the NFL's top-ranked offense and defense.  The clash of conferences, philosophical approaches and coaching apparel could be a game for the ages if the Seahawks can send Tom Brady into fits with that mean pass rush and secondary.  Still, as much as I've enjoyed rooting for the scrappy 'Hawks so far this season, Russell Wilson just hasn't demonstrated that he can go toe-to-toe with an offense like that of the Patriots.  Sooner or later, Tom Brady will step on the gas and leave Wilson and the 12th Man in the dust.

Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans (-3.5)
This could be a pretty wild game.  The Texans eked out a win against the tail-spun New York Jets on Monday but they have a short week ahead and a Brian Cushing-sized hole to fill on defense.  The Packers lost a heartbreaker in Indianapolis last Sunday that could either create a very productive sense of urgency or send their morale into the abyss.  With Cedric Benson's injury pointing to even less of a run game for Green Bay, I really like the Texans' chances here.  J. J. Watt should have a field day swatting down Aaron Rodgers' passes of desperation for 60 minutes.

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (-1.5)
While I'm not particularly enthused with either of these teams' performances so far in 2012, this is definitely the biggest divisional matchup of the week so it goes on the Top Shelf.  Neither the Broncos nor the Chargers have looked very good against their higher-profile opponents this year, but I think the Chargers have more of an identity on both sides of the ball than the Broncos do right now.  And maybe some better officiating karma will come their way after last Sunday's loss to the Saints... not that I'm complaining about that.

Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) at Tennessee Titans

I sincerely wish I could put this game on the Top Shelf since the Steelers and the Titans have kindled a pretty nice AFC rivalry ever since Terrible Towel Stop-Gate 2008.  For that history alone, I'll keep this one in the Well Drink bucket, but I think this Steelers will have this game well in control the way Tennessee has played so far this year.  The real question is what the over-under on attendance will look like at LP Field on Thursday with Tennessee's fast-sinking playoff hopes.

Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-3.5)

This is a mighty road test for the rising Indianapolis Colts.  Sure, the Jets have fallen flat for the most part this year, but they threw everything but the kitchen sink at the much better Houston Texans last week almost came away with a win.  And as we've seen on more than one occasion in sports, unlikely triumphs like the Colts' comeback against the Packers are hard to sustain.  They tend to give a few teams a temporary boost with new confidence while draining many others of the energy to fight the same fight next week.  The Colts are destined for a better long-term future than the Jets, but New York will be playing a desperation-style of football that can be very hard to contain, no matter Indy's momentum.

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-4)

Hoo boy, talk about two volatile, mistake-prone teams. One has been able to survive through Week 5 with a winning record in spite of turnovers in the double digits; the other has been punched in the gut most weeks with sloppy special teams play and questionable coaching [and a Madden curse].  I hate even trying to pick this game.  I pretty much feel like no matter who I pick, the other team will win for reasons I won't be happy about.  So luck be a lady to the stupid Philadelphia Eagles at home.  May this be your playoffs kiss of death.

St. Louis Rams at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)

Just as we had to challenge our perceptions about the Arizona Cardinals' capabilities early on this season, I'm going to start putting a little more faith in the Miami Dolphins this week.  While not the highest-profile rookie quarterback in this loaded 2012 class, Ryan Tannehill seems to have gotten enough footing to compete with your average NFL bears (or Rams).  Plus, despite a big divisional win last week, St. Louis suffered a bigger blow with WR Danny Amendola's collarbone injury that will have a huge impact on offensive production.  Miami is primed to strike while the iron's hot.

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (-2)

I'm hoping for a quick but safe recovery for Robert Griffin III after that awful-looking concussion this past Sunday against the Falcons because that certainly would make this game more exciting.  The Redskins have parted ways with the lonesomest kicker Billy Cundiff, but that still doesn't change the fact that Washington has dropped 7 straight games at home and that Minnesota has risen to a new level of competition this year.

House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest

 

Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4)
So Kansas City's secret armchair GM with way too much time and money on his/her hands got at least half of his/her wish.  The Chiefs will release the Kraken--err, Brady Quinn--on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this weekend while Matt Cassel sits out with a concussion.  Brady Quinn.  What a delightful snack for Tampa Bay coming off of their bye week.

Cincinnati Bengals (-1) at Cleveland Browns
Didn't we just see this episode? If I'm not mistaken, this Cincy-Cleveland game will be the first divisional rematch of the 2012 season.  Cleveland is looking hungrier for a win by the week, but I still like the Bengals in this one.  The Browns simply have yet to prove me wrong.

Oakland Raiders at Atlanta Falcons (-9)
Atlanta's white-hot start may have cooled down a bit with two fairly close games in two weeks, but Oakland doesn't know the meaning of a white-hot start.  The Falcons will keep the franchise's longest opening win streak alive for another week to go 6 - 0.

Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5)
Oy. This would have looked like a very good matchup after Week 3, but the Bills have allowed 97 points in their past two games. So much for Super Mario and Buffalo's defensive "upgrades." Granted they had to face the Patriots and the 49ers on the road, which I wouldn't wish on my worst enemy (OK, maybe the Falcons), BUT you know your team's in trouble when your own coach airs your dirty laundry like Chan Gailey did in Sunday's press conference.  If he was worried about quitters before, you bet he'll have plenty to worry about now.

So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 11 - 3
Season Record: 52 - 25