Top Shelf Games: Talent-rich, highly competitive and aged in oak barrels... spiritually speaking
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-7)
Was there any question this would be the Lady Blitz Game of the Week? The Brady-Manning (I) rivalry of old will rekindle for the first time since November 2010. Now normally I would give Peyton Manning more credit [no I wouldn't] for his sheer competitive drive against his once and future AFC nemesis Tom Brady. But if Tommy and Billy showed us anything this past Sunday, it's that they play like the Hulk. You don't want to get them angry. And boy, they must be fuming at the very thought of any Manning crashing their party after Super Bowl loss 2.0 against Eli last February.
Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Washington Redskins
The Falcons defense struggled for 3.9 quarters against Carolina's option quarterback last week (Cam Newton-- Heard of him?), which could make things interesting in Maryland this Sunday. Nevertheless, I'm still very much on the Atlanta victory train in Week 5 with Matt Ryan playing out of his mind against an injury-riddled Redskins D. Besides, sooner or later I'm going to jinx them, right?
Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
For all of Philly's missteps and near disasters in Q1, I'm still not buying the Steelers this year. Although their Week 4 bye gives us a small sample size and more rest for the aging Curtain, they've only been able to beat the Jets so far this year. The Jets, people. The battle for Pennsylvania should be a close one, but the Eagles definitely look like the better team to me.
Green Bay Packers (-7) at Indianapolis Colts
Watching Drew Brees carve up the Green Bay secondary for nearly 450 yards last week might give Andrew Luck some hope coming out of the bye week, but I think Aaron Rodgers is going to have even more fun with Indy's secondary. In the hopes that this will be another exciting shoot out instead of a rookie rout, I'm putting this one on the Top Shelf.
San Diego Chargers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
How often is it that an 0 - 4 NFL team playing a 3 - 1 team becomes the 3.5 point favorite on the books? If I could afford a research intern lackey, I'd have an answer for you. Instead, Vegas, like me, is hoping for a small miracle for the improving but still winless Saints in Week 5. This might also have something to do with NOLA tending to play its best under the Prime Time lights and the possibility that Drew Brees could break a remarkable QB record (Johnny Unitas' 47 consecutive games with a TD pass) that has stood for over 50 years. My only hope is that Sean Payton sneaks in as the whistle monster to watch everything unfold without Cris Collinsworth noticing. ***Update: Apparently no disguise is necessary***
Well Drink Games: They may surprise you from time to time without all the high expectations
Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) at St. Louis Rams
Verrrry interesting. Having to travel for a Thursday night game (which I am contractually obligated to remind you for at least 2 consecutive weeks that I hate the idea of) could be rough on the Cardinals after a hard fought overtime win this past Sunday. Plus, while I still think Arizona is playing at a high level, I don't think they're the kind of team that can go, say, 8 - 0 this year. I think the Rams have just enough disruptive power in their pass rush to hand the Cardinals their first defeat this week.
Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)
I must admit that the Titans and Vikings appear to be going in exactly opposite directions than what I projected in the preseason. Minnesota is off to a very respectable 3 - 1 record that may be tested with tougher opponents later in the season, but they've already surpassed my 2-win-season prediction with style. AP's quick recovery and Christian Ponder's sophomore emergence have already hoisted this team far above my expectations. The Titans on the other hand are throwing poor Jake Locker and less sympathetic Chris Johnson to the wolves. Could Tennessee have some O-Line issues? The Hasselbeck cameo this week won't save the Titans from another heartbreaking defeat in the Metrodome.
Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-4)
I'm still not sure about what to think of the Miami Dolphins. They've been competitive in most of their losses so far this year, but the lack of follow through still matters. The Bengals on the other hand took that first week in Baltimore to heart in a more productive way and look to be a well-oiled machine at this point, at least against lesser teams. Gotta go with Cincy's gumption on this one.
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-3)
This is the kind of matchup that the sports media tends to call "intriguing," meaning they don't really know what the heck is going to happen. I agree to an extent, but there have got to be some sophomore demons of self-doubt floating around in Cam Newton's toothy head right now. If those demons come out to play on Sunday, I think the Seahawks' mean pass rush can take care of Carolina long enough for Marshawn Lynch to find his groove.
House Punch Games: Most likely to be lop-sided, sloppy and/or otherwise painful to digest
Cleveland Browns at New York Giants (-9)You know, this is just the kind of game that the New York Giants often find a way to lose, so if I were a betting gal, I'd say Big Blue won't cover the spread. However, the Browns still haven't proven themselves to be primed enough to take advantage of a major upset opportunity like this. They should beat themselves on Sunday if the Giants won't do it for them.
Baltimore Ravens (-5) at Kansas City Chiefs
I'm kind of amazed at how low the spread is for this game. The Ravens get an extra 3 days of rest against a pitiful Chiefs team that is still winless at home and somehow Baltimore is expected to win by less than a touchdown? Let the Flacco undervaluing (OMG Week 4 Feature!) work to your advantage.
Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)
Oh my Buffalo. Just when it looked like they had found their footing and were about to take the Patriots for a ride for the second year in a row, a vengeful New England beast awoke and absolutely eviscerated their chances. Some of the better teams in the NFL might be able to bounce back from a humiliation like that, but 1) Buffalo is not one of them; and 2) San Francisco is (see: Week 4 in New York after the loss to the Vikings)
Chicago Bears (-5.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Given that the Bears totally dismantled Tony Romo's passing game this past week, I shudder to think what they might do to Blaine Gabbert in Jacksonville on Sunday. Heck, Gabbert might get the Jaguars all packed for LA three years ahead of schedule...
Houston Texans (-8) at New York Jets
Ever notice how a simple typo can transform the NY Jets into the NY Jest? That won't be much of a typo after Houston has its way with Mark Sanchez on Monday night. I tried to think of a David Foster Wallace footnote to insert here but alas am not that clever, only somewhat savvy with my contemporary literature references.
So How's My Pickin'?
Last Week's Record: 13 - 2
Season Record: 41 - 22
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